September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

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SwiftDeath

Member
Jallopy said:
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pager99 said:
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FZZpure said:
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You should fix your formatting if you want your predictions counted for points

donny2112 said:
Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              [B]Bad[/B]
[PS4] 300K       [PS4] 300 thousand
[PS4] 300,000    [PS4] 300.000
[PS4] 300000     [PS4] - 300000
Click to expand...
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
T

theprodigy

Member
SwiftDeath said:
VITA MIGHT NOT BE LAST!

I'm just kidding with ya :p

WAIT



That is ummmmm a tad unlikely

For comparison



But everyone is of course entitled to their opinion :)
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given the Wii U/Xbox One predictions and the super low last-gen ones as well I'm inclined to believe this is a troll post
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
theprodigy said:
given the Wii U/Xbox One predictions and the super low last-gen ones as well I'm inclined to believe this is a troll post
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Sooo is it a bad sign if I was more surprised by the 900k prediction for XB1 then for the 2 prediction for Wii U? :\

I guess absolutely it's a hell of a larger bet

You're probably right though
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Sooo is it a bad sign if I was more surprised by the 900k prediction for XB1 then for the 2 prediction for Wii U? :\

I guess absolutely it's a hell of a larger bet

You're probably right though
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Probably :p

(...Yeah, I was just joking with the Xbox One (Mainly because of the Patcher thread) and Wii U predictions, I wouldn't call it 'trolling' though since that has a negative connotation and implies that I was intentionally trying to upset people.)
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Chezzymann said:
Probably :p

(...Yeah, I was just joking with the Xbox One (Mainly because of the Patcher thread) and Wii U predictions, I wouldn't call it 'trolling' though since that has a negative connotation and implies that I was intentionally trying to upset people.)
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lol no worries. It was just a bit reminiscent of a particular March prediction for XB1 I was remembering, that one was serious though
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
I don't know where else to put this, but Amazon only has 13 Xbox Ones left. Either sales are pretty good, or MS hasn't restocked them yet. Might be something for October NPD.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Welfare said:
I don't know where else to put this, but Amazon only has 13 Xbox Ones left. Either sales are pretty good, or MS hasn't restocked them yet. Might be something for October NPD.
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Yeah Amazon finally ran out of stock of the Day One edition like 2 or 3 weeks ago

Pity it didn't make it to the 1 year mark. Ah well
 
M

mintylurb

Member
HalfBaked said:
It's totally at odds with Abdiel's report that there was little drop off in the standard PS4 sku.
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That was just bestbuy and in his district. It's possible gamestop, walmart, target, toys r us could've moved more x1 due to heavy promotions in his district.
Last gen, I believe there was a gamestop employee who used to give us his store and district sales overview. His store & district consistently sold more ps3s yet we all know monthly NPD painted a different picture.

Pachter's prediction isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility due to MS's heavy promotions last month.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
I just realized there's only 4 systems that people actually care about their numbers (PS4, XB1, 3DS, Wii U), 360/PS3 are old and nobody really cares (aside from a little footnote on 360 passing Wii maybe), meanwhile Vita numbers will always be shit to the point where people are only interested as far as seeing how low it can go.

yet somehow we get Vita numbers first almost every single time
 
C

Chocolate & Vanilla

Fuck Strawberry
mintylurb said:
That was just bestbuy and in his district. It's possible gamestop, walmart, target, toys r us could've moved more x1 due to heavy promotions in his district.
Last gen, I believe there was a gamestop employee who used to give us his store and district sales overview. His store & district consistently sold more ps3s yet we all know monthly NPD painted a different picture.

Pachter's prediction isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility due to MS's heavy promotions last month.
Click to expand...

No, I get that however Abdiel's monthly insights have been fairly indicative to date. I wasn't saying Pachter can't be right, just that in the face of the little evidence we have (Amazon, Abdiel) as well as not knowing what sample data he used and his seemingly primarily basing his prediction on one week long deal is entirely unconvincing.
 
D

dolemite

Member
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 300k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 70k
[360] 70k
[PS3] 40k

I have considered many Pfachters when making my estimates.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
mintylurb said:
Pachter's prediction isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility due to MS's heavy promotions last month.
Click to expand...
The "realm of possibility" is incredibly broad and a low bar.

Pachter's numbers seem to imply he thinks that Destiny and the PS4 bundle will have essentially no hardware impact, at least on PS4 sales, despite being the most significant release of the month and having co-marketing ties with the platform. While a free game promotion for one week during the five-week tracking period will result in a 60+% M/M increase when normalised for the extra week.

Which seems somewhat implausible.
 
S

stryke

Member
shinra-bansho said:
The "realm of possibility" is incredibly broad and a low bar.

Pachter's numbers seem to imply he thinks that Destiny and the PS4 bundle will have essentially no hardware impact, at least on PS4 sales, despite being the most significant release of the month and having co-marketing ties with the platform. While a free game promotion for one week during the five-week tracking period will result in a 60+% M/M increase when normalised for the extra week.

Which seems somewhat implausible.
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Nah man, anythingcanhappen™.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Jimmyfenix said:
Looks like insiderp is saying stuff again. I wouldn't put my stock on that website.
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That say things that sound really bold, but will eventually come true (a million for Infamous, 10 Million for PS4), but when we do get confirmation from Sony there is no way to show if Derp's timeline was correct or not. I can tell you now that Little Big Planet 3 will sell 2 million by Christmas and (because Sony won't tell us until long after if at all) people will put known numbers from NPD and Media Create together and "estimate" the rest in order to say "Yeah, it is possible." There is no way they could have access to the information they claim, but with those who want to believe doing the "proof" for them, they do not need real information.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
mintylurb said:
That was just bestbuy and in his district. It's possible gamestop, walmart, target, toys r us could've moved more x1 due to heavy promotions in his district.
Last gen, I believe there was a gamestop employee who used to give us his store and district sales overview. His store & district consistently sold more ps3s yet we all know monthly NPD painted a different picture.

Pachter's prediction isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility due to MS's heavy promotions last month.
Click to expand...

There are a number of things wrong with this post.

1) Abdiel doesn't just check "his own district." He checks numerous districts to look for common trends.

2) Pachter only does a TINY amount of channel checking. He calls up individual managers and asks how sales were at *their* store. Abdiel gives us a more comprehensive trend analysis.

3) Every possible indication we have points to Pachter's prediction being ENTIRELY out of the realm of possibility. It's just completely out there for some bizarre reason.

4) Best Buy is one of the largest retailers. UNLIKE Amazon, Best Buy is a big box retailer, so its sales trends will be more in line with the overall trend of NPD as a representative sample.
 
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