CosmicQueso
Member
Consoles are dead because the Wii mattered.
May 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Consoles are dead because the Wii mattered.
shhhhhh! They'll hear you!
But as a comparison, the PlayStation 4, Xbox One and Wii U cumulative install base after 18 months on the market will be around 10% lower than the cumulative install base of the PlayStation 3, Wii and Xbox 360 at this point in time. That gap is set to grow thanks to the Wii taking off and sales of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 increasing over the years.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
I don't think you're precise on this, but it's still an astounding feat that we often tend to gloss over.
When you think about it, the PS4 and XB1 have done amazingly well so far. Above and beyond initial, pessimistic expectations.
Doctor Professional
Banned
Yeah it had the memorial day deal at GS for 2 days and the BB trade in deal for over a week.
I just always get these gut feelings NPD day.
I guess i should also take into account the white bundle being limited.
Well to be fair GS also had $350 Halo White Plus year of live. And currently $380 for the same thing. Longer than 2 days though.
Yes, in NPD usually if not mistaken. If they aren't front loaded they do a decent showing and then increase in sales better week by week.
The Ninth Life
Banned
You know what was a great way to run a business? To launch a substantially more powerful system, substantially easier to develop for, and yet substantially cheaper to buy. That was the PS4. It had an amazing E3 price reveal. I said OMG and did a cheer. I was literally fisting pumps. Everybody was throwing their hands in the air. It was Y2K again, baby. Celebrate good times, come on.
You know what was so great about it? Launching at the substantially lower price because you knew you had to. What an amazing, sheer display of self-awareness.
You want to speak of horrible ways of running a business, however? Not continuing to undercut the competition because you think you're safe in America.
Now that's pretty fucking stupid.
Well sure, as we're missing numbers for the 18th month the percentage won't be exactly correct.
Plus we don't have actual precise NPD totals, I'm really just estimating based on what public data is available.
Welfare
Member
You'll do great here.
A direct comparison is challenging. The PS3 wasn't selling well early on and the X360 had stock issues.
CosmicQueso
Member
So is this just like a "there's a new one every month" kind of thing right now?
I don't know, but he seems to be doing it on purpose. I miss Microsoft Chad's pure and unfiltered assholeness
And he won last month's prediction too. HOW?!?
Mister Megative
Banned
I'm a new one, and I endorse this message.
Welfare
Member
Gotta weed them out.
KillerSloth
Banned
Wait you are mister negative aren't you supposed to never have a positive thing to say?
.
Ghost_Messiah
Member
Yeah - NeoGAF has been playing up for me too loading wise. It seems to have restored itself now though. Whenever the forum fails to load I get paranoid because I always think a crazy announcement must have overloaded the servers. Every time GAF goes down I think "Oh God Half Life 3 must have been announced!" lol.
Chezzymann
Member
This generation is still on a path to do less than the previous one when only counting 20 million of the Wii's install base as 'real' gamers'. 20 million Wii users + 160 million Xbox 360 and PS3 users = ~180 million for last gen. Which is around the same as the 6th generation (150 PS2, 20 gamecube, 20 xbox = ~190). This generation will be lucky for the Wii U, Xbox one, and PS4 to equal 170 million total. That would require the PS4 to sell 100 million, the Xbox One to sell over 50 million, and the Wii U to sell 20 million.
Its starting off great. but I wouldn't be surprised if this generation is the lowest selling overall since the 5th gen.
Its starting off great. but I wouldn't be surprised if this generation is the lowest selling overall since the 5th gen.
We're reaching new levels of stupid here. Let's go where no one has gone before.
Mister Megative
Banned
Well, to be fair, sales of the PS4/X1 could grow as well. I certainly think they will if they follow the trajectory of the last gen......which, thus far, they've done. I think as more and more releases ditch the last gen, we'll see more and more gamers sign up for the new. At least for the forseeable future. I mean, this holiday season for example is going to be huge. HUUUUGE.
But, if they merely match last gen sales of PS3/360 (which I still think they will exceed), hey.....they will still have outsold the previous gen thanks to the mad rush for early adoption of the new cycle. I tend to agree with Queso on the market.....people look at overall contraction thanks to the exit of the Wii as a bad thing, and I just don't think that's the case. That contraction happened years ago, and we've been operating within the new normal for some time now.
Having said that, please understand I do DEEPLY respect your opinion, Zhuge
Here's to hoping you're not a cat...*raises glass*...Even though though your view is valid, your wordings should be chosen slightly more careful here.
Jimmyfenix
Member
NPD prediction threads always live up to the crazy
Mister Megative
Banned
Wait you are mister negative aren't you supposed to never have a positive thing to say?
MEGAtive. Honestly, it was born out of someone at work calling me Mister Negative over email, but she hit the M instead of the N. It just kinda stuck.
I'm actually a pretty positive fellow.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
'I was literally fisting pumps'
What a day to be alive.
I hope she owns a Sega Negadrive for balance.
What a day to be alive.
I hope she owns a Sega Negadrive for balance.
Don't do this haha.
Anyway (Estimated LTD totals for each gen in the USA below)
Gen 4 - 40 million
Gen 5 - 50 million
Gen 6 - 76 million
Gen 7 - 111 million
Gen 8 - >17 million as of May 2015
Welfare
Member
It keeps telling me that it's waiting for netdna-cdn to load.
Nope not even mobile.
It'll depend how the EU and other region markets trend. PS4 is a monster in EU and other areas. If these areas suddenly stop and the US market remains the same, PS4 won't hit 100mill.
KillerSloth
Banned
Megative LOL I missed that, my brain read negative.
Well, to be fair, sales of the PS4/X1 could grow as well. I certainly think they will if they follow the trajectory of the last gen......which, thus far, they've done. I think as more and more releases ditch the last gen, we'll see more and more gamers sign up for the new. At least for the forseeable future. I mean, this holiday season for example is going to be huge. HUUUUGE.
But, if they merely match last gen sales of PS3/360 (which I still think they will exceed), hey.....they will still have outsold the previous gen thanks to the mad rush for early adoption of the new cycle. I tend to agree with Queso on the market.....people look at overall contraction thanks to the exit of the Wii as a bad thing, and I just don't think that's the case. That contraction happened years ago, and we've been operating within the new normal for some time now.
Having said that, please understand I do DEEPLY respect your opinion, Zhuge
No worries mate. I actually agree with your second paragraph 100%. The contraction has happened, and whilst I believe that this gen will be smaller (install base) than last gen that doesn't mean I think consoles are doomed or anything.
Regarding the first paragraph, I've always said for a long time that the Xbox One and Wii U will not surpass their predecessors whilst the PlayStation 4 has a chance, ultimately though it leads to a lower overall install base. Doesn't mean to say it's not a successful generation though. I still think that last gen (when aligned) will follow a higher trajectory than this gen.
John Bender
Banned
Would be funny. We never had a tie
The Grim Reaper
Banned
In April 2008, the 360 sold 188.0K and the PS3 sold 187.1K.
The two consoles were only 0.9K apart.
GTA 4 month right. That month was glorious because every one were pinning their hopes on GTA finally stopping the Wii lol.
The Grim Reaper
Banned
Yep. 360 GTA IV sold 1.85 million that month and PS3 GTA IV sold 1.00 million.
But it wasn't enough to stop the Wii who dominated both consoles with a whopping 714.2K.
Yup,
except it never stopped the Wii which sold almost 4x as much as the 360.
Which I believe is the closest the two consoles have been, prior to the PS4 launching?
CosmicQueso
Member
Anyone ever read "Ready Player One"?
If not, you should.
If you have, once the OASIS hits Consoles, then we're talking hockey sticks straight to the heavens forever.
If not, you should.
If you have, once the OASIS hits Consoles, then we're talking hockey sticks straight to the heavens forever.
PS4 won
Amazon has redeemed itself.
Primethius
Banned
But how can two Amazon slots be beat by one? It makes no sense!
slavesnyder
Member
Microsoft PR, where are you?
PS4 won
Back to regularly scheduled programming
It's almost like Amazon isn't fully representative of the total market or some shit like that................
At Gamescom
RedAssedApe
Banned
pls give us witcher sales