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[Bronx-Man]

Although we’re still about five weeks out from the latest Star Wars movie, one of our sources has clued us into the film’s tracking numbers, and they’re impressive to say the least. The movie is currently tracking to open to $225 million, which would put it well ahead of the $208 million Jurassic World made when it opened earlier this year and broke The Avengers’ opening weekend record of $207 million.

However, this $225 million is a modest prediction. Keep in mind that unlike Jurassic World or the previous opening weekend record holder, The Avengers, The Force Awakens is basically playing non-stop from the time it opens on Thursday night through Monday morning. It has the most screens and the most showtimes. If people want to see it at 4:00am on Friday, they can; they couldn’t do that with Avengers or Jurassic World. Also, as we previously reported, The Force Awakens will have no competition on IMAX screens for a month.

Keep in mind that tracking numbers change over time, and it’s possible that $225 million might be out of the realm of possibility. Star Wars has never braved a holiday season before, and no December movie has ever grossed over $100 million on opening weekend, let alone the over $200 million The Force Awakens would need to take the record. People are busy traveling, they have hectic schedules, and some might want to wait out a chaotic weekend and see Star Wars later. It would still make a lot of money, but it would be spread out over time.

http://collider.com/star-wars-7-force-awakens-box-office-predictions/

I get the feeling that the crow-eating thread for this one is gonna be a lot more well received than Ant-Man's.

 

[strafer]

No shit. It's one of the biggest movie events the world has ever seen.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Well...duh.

 

[RoboPlato]

But it's coming out in December... /s

I've got my 7pm on the 17th tickets ready. Bring it!

 

[Monocle]

Yep. It's going to fun to watch the Star Wars madness unfold all over again.

 

[Blablurn]

Gonna be epic

 

[sixteen-bit]

Congrats on the pre-success.

 

[codhand]

buy ticker symbol DIS

 

[Frodo]

"I'm shocked!" said nobody.

I had to buy my IMAX tickets for the 23rd, because everyday before that was already sold out, and mind me, my session starts at 23:59, so it's not a very sought after session.

 

[tycoonheart]

We have to dethrone Cameron's two shitty movies Titanic and Avatar as the highest grossing movies ever. Plz Star Wars, do it for me.

 

[Busty]

FYI the company/service that predicts that particular opening weekend number for Star Wars Force Awakens also predicted that Spectre would open to $120m+.

Just sayin'.

 

[Limited Edition]

I got to go for free as many times as I want. Yay friends with press passes.

 

[Cheebo]

FYI the company/service that predicts that particular opening weekend number for Star Wars Force Awakens also predicted that Spectre would open to $120m+.

Just sayin'.

Bad reviews really hurt its opening, Bond skews older and older audiences typically rely on reviews more than younger.

If TFA gets bad reviews I think it is fair to say its numbers could go down as well.

 

[Tathanen]

Isn't there like, a theoretical maximum amount a movie could make that will eventually be hit? Say it's showing on every screen in the nation non stop all weekend and they all get sold out. Once a movie manages that, does the tracking industry shut down? No more records ever.

 

[entremet]

Shocker!

 

[ratcliffja]

Isn't there like, a theoretical maximum amount a movie could make that will eventually be hit? Say it's showing on every screen in the nation non stop all weekend and they all get sold out. Once a movie manages that, does the tracking industry shut down? No more records ever.

Ticket prices always go up so records will always go up.

 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

I didn't expect this.

 

[Busty]

Bad reviews really hurt its opening, Bond skews older and older audiences typically rely on reviews more than younger.

If TFA gets bad reviews I think it is fair to say its numbers could go down as well.

I am aware of all this but it doesn't change the fact that their SPECTRE opening weekend prediction was almost double what it actually opened at.

 

[Dega]

Isn't there like, a theoretical maximum amount a movie could make that will eventually be hit? Say it's showing on every screen in the nation non stop all weekend and they all get sold out. Once a movie manages that, does the tracking industry shut down? No more records ever.

Build more

 

[Hoo-doo]

The marketing for this movie is goddamn EVERYWHERE.

I visited this little tiny mom and pop pen store in my town. Huge drop-down banners hanging from the ceiling with the imperial logo on it. Promoting a new line of super exclusive Star Wars related pens, including Stormtroopers, C3PO and Darth Vader. Advertisements everywhere. I probably saw Finn wielding a lightsaber 25 times just window shopping.

Primark, a clothing store. Two huge EP7 banners right at the entrance. Candy, toys, shoes, bicycles, watches, Star Wars branding is fucking everywhere here.

 

[Oersted]

We have to dethrone Cameron's two shitty movies Titanic and Avatar as the highest grossing movies ever. Plz Star Wars, do it for me.

Saying Titanic is shitty and then wishing a Abrams product dethrones it. Erm.

 

[Goro Majima]

I already bought tickets for the Alamo Drafthouse for a matinee showing on a Friday and the seats are selling out fast. Don't think I've ever bought tickets nearly two months out before for any movie and I can't be the only one.

This is going to be nuts.

 

[Akahige]

Sure anything is possible, that one source for Collider could be right, but that leap from the current December record is just giant.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Since when is Hollywood able to track reliably past 110 mil without just guessing, much less track up to 225 million?

This kinda shit is going to kick the film in the shins, hard, when it turns out it "only" makes like 175 million, which would more than double the current December OW record.

FYI the company/service that predicts that particular opening weekend number for Star Wars Force Awakens also predicted that Spectre would open to $120m+.

Just sayin'.

Thank you!

 

[BowieZ]

Everyone I know is seeing this movie around opening weekend, except a few of my female colleagues and my mum.

Even my 70-year-old father is seeing it day of release.

 

[cloud_sleep]

We have to dethrone Cameron's two shitty movies Titanic and Avatar as the highest grossing movies ever. Plz Star Wars, do it for me.

It's nice to have dreams.

 

[DOWN]

buy ticker symbol DIS

for real

 

[johnny956]

One big snow storm opening weekend will kill any chance of breaking the record

 

[aw350]

I am going to do my part.

 

[bengraven]

Will likely be still playing in May. Fitting.

I am going to do my part.

 

[Busty]

Everyone I know is seeing this movie around opening weekend, except a few of my female colleagues and my mum.

When you say "everyone you know" do you happen to have a social circle that is heavy on bearded forty year old men?

 

[Jokergrin]

Will Force Awakens beat Avatar for overall box office?

 

[Syf]

You don't say..

Will Force Awakens beat Avatar for overall box office?

Domestic, I think so. Worldwide will be harder but has a chance if it's good.

 

[Maninthemirror]

Calling it now, if it breaks the OW record in DECEMBER of all months, its going to break the All time Box office Record. Also who is NOT seeing this opening weekend or not seeing at all. I mean come on. Who would even say I am skipping this, that would be absurd.

 

[Savitar]

The brass at Disney won't be happy until some rioting/trampling has happened.

DAT MONEY.

 

[RPGamer92]

Will Force Awakens beat Avatar for overall box office?

Probably not because of Avatar's 3D tickets.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

So is roughly $230 million the saturation point for opening weeks in the US just based on ticket prices, number of theaters and movie length?

 

[Kojirospath]

This is the first movie I preordered tickets for a month in advance. Allmost all the good seats were allready taken. This will do gangbusters.

 

[Sephzilla]

Probably not because of Avatar's 3D tickets.

Force Awakens has 3D too though, doesn't it?

 

[Schweinehund]

I thought the last prediction was 600 million OW. What happened to that?

Still going to make a butt load of money. Wonder just how big the marketing budget is.

 

[Viewt]

Force Awakens has 3D too though, doesn't it?

Yep, it does.

December's film release history has me skeptical that this could be true, but I can't deny that TFA is fucking everywhere. If any film was going to buck that trend, it'd be Star Wars.

 

[valkillmore]

I wish more movies opened on a Friday then you could go an see any showtime every hour on the hour for the duration of the opening weekend, then following that it normalizes.

 

[Busty]

Calling it now, if it breaks the OW record in DECEMBER of all months, its going to break the All time Box office Record. Also who is NOT seeing this opening weekend or not seeing at all. I mean come on. Who would even say I am skipping this, that would be absurd.

Such a thing could suggest that it's front loaded rather than having the legs to go on and do Avatar level business.

Remember Avatar and Titanic both had incredible repeat business for months and months on end with loyal

Spoiler

(slack jawed, glassy eyed)

fans going back to see it again and again and again...., etc.

Will Force Awakens really get enough people coming back to see five, six or more times to give Cameron any sleepless nights?

 

[Cheebo]

I thought the last prediction was 600 million OW. What happened to that?

Worldwide opening weekend prediction from Deadline. This is domestic.

 

[Maninthemirror]

I see it as this:


250 Million OW (250 Total) (Crosses Transformers Domestic Box office)
180 Million Monday-Thursday (Christmas week) (450) (Crosses Avengers Ultron Box office)
180 Million 2nd weekend (Christmas weekend) (610)
130 Million Monday-Thursday (new Years week) (740) (Crosses Titanic Box office)
110 Million 3rd weekend (New years weekend) (850) (Crosses Avatar Box Office)

 

[JimiNutz]

Not really surprised.
My girlfriend and I have got midnight tickets on opening night booked already along with another 7 tickets for December 26th (taking the whole family).

 

[SpaceHorror]

The sun rises every morning, too.

Spoiler

Still need to buy my tickets.

 

[Ray Wonder]

The sun rises every morning, too.

Spoiler

Still need to buy my tickets.

Nu uh, the earth rotates

 

[Tom Nook]

Bison: Of Course!

I'm ready

 

[Snaku]

Well no shit. Did the first day pre sale not give this away. It only shattered the previous record eight times over.