I would like this too.
Wkd Box Office 1225-2715 - Star Wars never changes. 1B+ global BO for new record
- Thread starter LiK
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I would like this too.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
The short anime adaptation boom is going to be weird
A brainess piece of drivel that no one could remember a week afterwards.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
I thought Katy Perry played Smurfette #superoriginaljoke
Over Avatar by Sunday will probably require that $100M third weekend (or very close to it).
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Look to Avatar as a point of reference for its trajectory and totals, but not tracking.
That's more what I was asking about a couple days ago, though.
Anyway, before I went into extended Chinatown riffing, I was just saying 33 surprised me a little. I figured with the softer than previously predicted Sunday, that the Monday drop might be a little sharper as well. Not too much, but 28-30 mil, maybe.
Yeah, I think from this trajectory it does it on Sunday. It's likely to do $100m+ this weekend, but as kswiston noted, if it does $120 Mon-Thurs, it could come in under $100m and still top Avatar by Sunday.
I'd actually forgotten how crazy Avatar's tracking was. TFA did hold for the first week or so of its run, bit Avatar went from a $16m Monday to a $19m Monday. I'd forgotten it basically held flat for three weeks. 0_o
And yeah, I thought Sunday coming in under estimates might mean a slightly larger drop today. Instead I think it just means more people went on the day after Christmas vs. Sunday, bumping Saturday up and Sunday down a bit. The wild ride continues.
Avatar was in theaters until weeks/days before it was released on DVD. Doesn't seem that weird for bombs/certain movies these days but an incredible feat for a Hollywood blockbuster.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Yeah, I expected a bigger drop than 33M because of Sunday too.
Most blockbusters are in theatres until their DVD release. Some even after that.
EDIT: Disney pulled Frozen out of theatres on July 17, 2014. DVD/Bluray release was in March.
Since nobody has focused on this point, I don't know why you think this is a post-holiday period. There is still New Year's Eve/New Year's Day. Schools remain out and many companies have the week off.
Not like this though. Those keep chugging on second/third tier screens. Avatar was in my local theaters main rotation until maybe 18 days before the home release. On the important screens.
I'd mentioned it, but it bears reiterating. This week does not behave like most weeks of the year; we'll see a sizable weekday drop when school gets back in session, but not before then.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Speaking of which, The Force Awakens is currently scheduled for April (heard both the 5th and the 19th, don't know which one is more reliable though) - is it possible Disney still has this film in theaters at that point?
Star Wars beating Avatar's entire domestic run by this time next week is absolutely nuts.
$1 billion domestic is definitely happening at this point, right? If these legs hold up, could we see $1.1b? $1.2b?
Perhaps the elusive reverse-Avatar, where it grosses $2 billion domestic and $760 mil overseas?
$1 billion domestic is definitely happening at this point, right? If these legs hold up, could we see $1.1b? $1.2b?
Perhaps the elusive reverse-Avatar, where it grosses $2 billion domestic and $760 mil overseas?
excelsiorlef
Member
almost no chance of that.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
HA! We've found the replacement for my pie-in-the-sky "three weekends over 100 million" scenario.
It will likely still be around. Anecdotally, my local theater does a lot of second run films and there tend to be DVD releases for most of them while it's still there.
Yeah, I've felt good about $1b since this past weekend started coming it. It'll do it.
It was a good film.
I loved the build-up to the penultimate monster showdown.
The Jaws-like approach had a satisfying pay-off, though I do wish the human aspect of the story remained revolving around Cranston and his son.
Jurassic World was still in dollar theaters a month after the Blu-Ray release so it seems pretty likely.
It will be playing in some capacity. Even JW played for another month after its release but it was obviously limited.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I should clarify: I meant first-run release, not second-run & beer theaters.
I know some second-run theaters that actually USE blu-rays of the films they're screening by the time they get them scheduled in their houses.
I know some second-run theaters that actually USE blu-rays of the films they're screening by the time they get them scheduled in their houses.
ProudCanuck
Banned
fully erect
I'd say probably not, but I think we need to see how its legs settle in after school gets back in session.
fully erect
To the stars!
Hard to tell. Avatar was in 1000+ theatres for 14 weeks. Frozen held that distinction for 18 weeks. Jurassic World got 9 weeks and then 3 more after it re-expanded going into Labour day.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
JW's second monday was 11M. Second weekdays 43M. I think it has a chance.
The Monday after New Year's weekend should be telling, I think. Avatar made almost $80 million from next Sunday to the following Sunday. If TFA can come close to that, or even better it, $1 billion is a lock.
fully erect
I get the feeling this is going to end up annoyingly close to $1B, like $990M or something stupid like that.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
999 for ultimate annoyance.
BronsonLee
Member
Oh God yes
The Force Awakens: Special Edition.
BronsonLee
Member
...goddamnit Bobby
Discotheque
Banned
It's going to happen dammit.
First weekend ends up just shy of $250M. Second weekend comes in at $149M. I bet the third weekend will be $99M.
Star Wars would still have to hold well after that. Gross to Jan 3rd + $80M in the following week will likely be in the neighbourhood of $850M unless this weekend is well over $100M. Making another $150M coming off of an $80M week is not necessarily locked.
Going back to Jurassic World, JW made $56M in the same time frame you are proposing $80M for TFA. The film made another $96M after that. The Same legs would get TFA to $987M.
EDIT: Basically, we need this week to be as high as possible, and then The Dark Knight type late legs (or better) in the new Year after Jan 3rd to be reasonably sure of $1B.
fully erect
If these trends continue... ayyyyyyyyy
Adjusted to account for certain predictions
Starkiller detonation spot.
If a large meteor strikes the earth in the next 4 days, TFA will end its worldwide run under Age of Ultron, vindicating MCU-GAF.
Chezzymann
Member
So if it gets a billion domestic it'll get into the top 10 domestic films of all time adjusted for inflation. I wonder if it can get past jaws.
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