The New Hampshire Primary |Feb 9|: Live Free or Die

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old said:
I love it. Both party establishments are crapping themselves. The Clinton camp runs the democrats and they're losing to Sanders. The GOP can't control Trump and long hoped he'd fizzle.

This is great.
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Sadly the Democrats never seem to learn, which is a large part of why I consider myself independent. It's a miracle that Obama came when he did because the other potential candidates since 2000 have pretty much all been forgettable in the worst ways.
 
Las7 said:
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Free for all? Great then. Let's dig up some skeletons.
 
brochiller said:
I'm really interested to see what Hillary does now. I fully expect Bernie to keep on doing what is already working, but her campaign is a mess right now. Next debate should be fun.
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If Hillary is smart, she won't deviate too much from what she's doing now. NH has been projected for Bernie for a while now, and she's moving into much more comfortable territory going forward.

But if she does need to adjust something, it's how to respond to Bernie's campaign. Bernie is running an impressive campaign in just deceptively dirty it is. Continue drawing the dotted line between Hillary and corporate money and let his supporters fill in the blanks with wild fantasies without saying anything himself. It's a strategy Hillary caught onto and nailed him on the last debate, but any open attack on this kind of strategy is going to to portray her as negative. She's gotta find a way to fight that line of attack without outright calling him out on it.

I really liked her "What are the real solutions?" line from her speech tonight, and she should build on that. It's a pragmatic approach that stays true to her campaign without sounding too dull and...well, pragmatic. And it's a pretty effective indirect attack on Bernie's pie-in-the-sky ideas.
 
Democrats
Voting percentage reported 80%

Bernie Sanders 60%
Hillary Clinton 38%

Republicans
Voting percentage reported 78%

Donald Trump 34%
John Kasich 16%
Ted Cruz 12%
Jeb (John E. Bush) 11%
Marco Rubio 10%
Chris Christie 8%
Carly Fiorina 4%
Ben Carson 2%

The race for third place continues with Cruz in the lead. Bernie is now 22% over Hillary.
 
Ogrekiller said:
Free for all? Great then. Let's dig up some skeletons.
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ratcliffja said:
Sadly the Democrats never seem to learn, which is a large part of why I consider myself independent. It's a miracle that Obama came when he did because the other potential candidates since 2000 have pretty much all been forgettable in the worst ways.
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What do you mean? The Democrats pushed Hillary because she is a well known figure of the Democrat party with plenty of experience. Who in their right mind would have thought an outsider like Bernie Sanders would come in and use socialistic policies and actually have an effect...also Bernie winning New Hampshire has been the story for a long time, it would be bigger news if he did not win. His top three states are Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa in that order. Hillary winning the nomination is still heavily in her favor due to the 300+ Super Delegates she already has as well. It still is to be determined if Bernie Sanders can even come close to Clinton.
 
CNN with an interesting point. Saying that in 2008 the black vote was heavily in favor of Clinton starting out on the basis people didn't believe Obama actually had a shot initially. But after Iowa, there was a massive reversal in SC.

Is that accurate. I know some people say that Bernie is suspect with blacks currently. But if he demonstrates viability, is it outside of the realm of possibility that Bernie might improve his standing with black voters. Especially if they learn more of his historical record and he better demonstrates how he understands various relevant issues?
 
WaffleTaco said:
What do you mean? The Democrats pushed Hillary because she is a well known figure of the Democrat party with plenty of experience. Who in their right mind would have thought an outsider like Bernie Sanders would come in and use socialistic policies and actually have an effect...also Bernie winning New Hampshire has been the story for a long time, it would be bigger news if he did not win. His top three states are Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa in that order. Hillary winning the nomination is still heavily in her favor due to the 300+ Super Delegates she already has as well. It still is to be determined if Bernie Sanders can even come close to Clinton.
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No harm in debating worse case scenarios.

If Bernie makes inroads into the youth latino vote and the youth black vote he could so some serious damage there. He should go after those that are too young to remember the Clinton days and continue to expand on his youth advantage.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
CNN with an interesting point. Saying that in 2008 the black vote was heavily in favor of Clinton starting out on the basis people didn't believe Obama actually had a shot initially. But after Iowa, there was a massive reversal in SC.

Is that accurate. I know some people say that Bernie is suspect with blacks currently. But if he demonstrates viability, is it outside of the realm of possibility that Bernie might improve his standing with black voters. Especially if they learn more of his historical record and he better demonstrates how he understands various relevant issues?
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This has pretty much been the Sanders campaign plan from jump. Have a strong showing in Iowa and New Hampshire to build momentum coming into the southern states.
 
WaffleTaco said:
What do you mean? The Democrats pushed Hillary because she is a well known figure of the Democrat party with plenty of experience. Who in their right mind would have thought an outsider like Bernie Sanders would come in and use socialistic policies and actually have an effect...also Bernie winning New Hampshire has been the story for a long time, it would be bigger news if he did not win. His top three states are Vermont, New Hampshire and Iowa in that order. Hillary winning the nomination is still heavily in her favor due to the 300+ Super Delegates she already has as well. It still is to be determined if Bernie Sanders can even come close to Clinton.
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Hillary lost to Obama 8 years ago. If your best bet is someone who previously lost what was considered a sure-fire nomination, then you should re-assess your party. She's older and facing more criticism than she did before and still isn't electrifying her base. I don't doubt that she's very intelligent and pragmatic, but she just doesn't capture nonpartisan voters' attention like a candidate should.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
CNN with an interesting point. Saying that in 2008 the black vote was heavily in favor of Clinton starting out on the basis people didn't believe Obama actually had a shot initially. But after Iowa, there was a massive reversal in SC.

Is that accurate. I know some people say that Bernie is suspect with blacks currently. But if he demonstrates viability, is it outside of the realm of possibility that Bernie might improve his standing with black voters. Especially if they learn more of his historical record and he better demonstrates how he understands various relevant issues?
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If she struggles in SC she is screwed
 
Bernie just needs to keep up the momentum. I remember hearing "I like him but he's probably not going to win". Now that there was an extremely close race in Iowa and this huge win in NH I hope that help turn the conversation a bit.

I have a feeling a lot of people aren't exactly sure who they're voting for until shortly before the election. Wasn't Hillary at a huge lead in NH not too long ago?
 
kaskade said:
Bernie just needs to keep up the momentum. I remember hearing "I like him but he's probably not going to win". Now that there was an extremely close race in Iowa and this huge win in NH I hope that help turn the conversation a bit.

I have a feeling a lot of people aren't exactly sure who they're voting for until shortly before the election. Wasn't Hillary at a huge lead in NH not too long ago?
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10 months ago maybe
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
CNN with an interesting point. Saying that in 2008 the black vote was heavily in favor of Clinton starting out on the basis people didn't believe Obama actually had a shot initially. But after Iowa, there was a massive reversal in SC.

Is that accurate. I know some people say that Bernie is suspect with blacks currently. But if he demonstrates viability, is it outside of the realm of possibility that Bernie might improve his standing with black voters. Especially if they learn more of his historical record and he better demonstrates how he understands various relevant issues?
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I doubt it. Proving his electability was pretty much the only hurdle Obama had to face to get black support, but black folk had been paying attention to Obama since 2004.

But Bernie has somewhat dug himself into a hole with black voters. It's not impossible, but he's got a lot more working against him than just his electability.
 
royalan said:
If Hillary is smart, she won't deviate too much from what she's doing now. NH has been projected for Bernie for a while now, and she's moving into much more comfortable territory going forward.

But if she does need to adjust something, it's how to respond to Bernie's campaign. Bernie is running an impressive campaign in just deceptively dirty it is. Continue drawing the dotted line between Hillary and corporate money and let his supporters fill in the blanks with wild fantasies without saying anything himself. It's a strategy Hillary caught onto and nailed him on the last debate, but any open attack on this kind of strategy is going to to portray her as negative. She's gotta find a way to fight that line of attack without outright calling him out on it.

I really liked her "What are the real solutions?" line from her speech tonight, and she should build on that. It's a pragmatic approach that stays true to her campaign without sounding too dull and...well, pragmatic. And it's a pretty effective indirect attack on Bernie's pie-in-the-sky ideas.
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LOL a Hillary supporter complaining that Sanders is running a dirty campaign. Just when I thought I had seen it all...
 
royalan said:
If Hillary is smart, she won't deviate too much from what she's doing now. NH has been projected for Bernie for a while now, and she's moving into much more comfortable territory going forward.

But if she does need to adjust something, it's how to respond to Bernie's campaign. Bernie is running an impressive campaign in just deceptively dirty it is. Continue drawing the dotted line between Hillary and corporate money and let his supporters fill in the blanks with wild fantasies without saying anything himself. It's a strategy Hillary caught onto and nailed him on the last debate, but any open attack on this kind of strategy is going to to portray her as negative. She's gotta find a way to fight that line of attack without outright calling him out on it.

I really liked her "What are the real solutions?" line from her speech tonight, and she should build on that. It's a pragmatic approach that stays true to her campaign without sounding too dull and...well, pragmatic. And it's a pretty effective indirect attack on Bernie's pie-in-the-sky ideas.
Click to expand...

Even though I cringe whenever I read someone in the Clinton camp saying Bernie is running the most negative Democratic campaign ever, it is it kind of ridiculous how easily he gets away with stealth attacks. And shit like the voter file data breach especially exposes that double standard -- if someone on Clinton's team were caught doing that, she'd be savaged in the press over it.
 
royalan said:
I doubt it. Proving his electability was pretty much the only hurdle Obama had to face to get black support, but black folk had been paying attention to Obama since 2004.

But Bernie has somewhat dug himself into a hole with black voters. It's not impossible, but he's got a lot more working against him than just his electability.
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Plus now he has 2 weeks as opposed to 10 months.

The minority vote will be peanuts compared to the DNC though. He really needs the DNC on his side if he wants to win the whole thing.
 
ratcliffja said:
Hillary lost to Obama 8 years ago. If your best bet is someone who previously lost what was considered a sure-fire nomination, then you should re-assess your party. She's older and facing more criticism than she did before and still isn't electrifying her base. I don't doubt that she's very intelligent and pragmatic, but she just doesn't capture nonpartisan voters' attention like a candidate should.
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Clinton's speech tonight sounded more like a Sanders speech anything she's said in the past, talking about Wall St. regulation and Citizens United. It's obviously she's trying to capture youth vote by pivoting towards his positions, but I think it's going to just make her look inconsistent. I mean, Bernie's positions are pretty well-known already, it's not like she can sneak in the back door at this point and co-opt it.


edit: also, Jim Gilmore with 118 votes. Might be time for ole Jim to rethink his campaign.
 
ApharmdX said:
LOL a Hillary supporter complaining that Sanders is running a dirty campaign. Just when I thought I had seen it all...
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He ain't wrong. Bernie's beet hitting her with stealth attacks for a while now and no one's called him out on it yet. He's been getting away with shit that would have sunk her 12 times over.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
CNN with an interesting point. Saying that in 2008 the black vote was heavily in favor of Clinton starting out on the basis people didn't believe Obama actually had a shot initially. But after Iowa, there was a massive reversal in SC.

Is that accurate. I know some people say that Bernie is suspect with blacks currently. But if he demonstrates viability, is it outside of the realm of possibility that Bernie might improve his standing with black voters. Especially if they learn more of his historical record and he better demonstrates how he understands various relevant issues?
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Don't you think Obama likely had an easier time swaying black voters? I don't think black voters are sealed to Clinton or anything, but expecting an Obama-level turnaround is unlikely in my eyes.

And I am wondering how he can communicate his history, because its not like that's new data he happened to miss in his campaign. That message just hasn't been swaying voters, and I'm not convinced its just a communication issue.
 
KevinRo said:
The Clinton's helped many of the democrats in power now become elected. You don't forget that favor. And if you do, it doesn't look good to others. They're just calling in their favors. Time to repay the debt. Imagine if you see someone renegging on their favor. Can you trust them if you have to decide to support or ask for their support in the future?
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I understand that, but guess what? I think as of late Obama when he's on the ballot gets a lot more people elected than the Clintons do. There is a reason all these young people, even a hell of a lot of women, aren't taking to the Clintons. And they seem to be of this belief that black voters will solve all their problems. And maybe they are right, but it may not be that simple. The Clintons, specifically when it comes to trying to get Hillary elected for President, have a certain attitude about them that simply is very off-putting.

I don't get the same dislike for them when they aren't campaigning for Hillary, and I don't think others do either. There is a reason that all these demographics are voting against Hillary, and all these young women are going against Hillary. It isn't just about Bernie, it's also very much about Hillary and the way she's running. I've also always believed that e-mail issue would bite her in the ass. She hasn't been taking it nearly as serious as she should've been from the start, and it's coming back to bite her in a big way. That e-mail issue is now a serious liability in a potential general election. That said, I honestly believe Obama is so damn well liked and popular that him throwing his support behind her come the convention and afterwards, would pretty much lock up the election for her.

But holy shit, they are making that job a whole lot harder with how they are running this campaign. Hillary has the qualifications and is smart as hell, and I believe would be a fantastic President. However, she's just not as good at getting people to like her and identify with her. There are times when she gets it right, and when she gets it right it's beautiful to see. It just doesn't seem to be her natural mode. They need to do something and do it fast. Bernie has been heavily underestimated in this campaign from the very start, and he is now officially a legitimate threat to somehow, miraculously, steal the nomination from her. I still say she's the favorite, but this isn't a good position for her to be in. Even if she wins, which she probably will, she's looking, I think, a lot weaker for the general than should be the case.
 
Where Bernie will show if he has a chance or not is Super Tuesday. All the NH win does is make sure he has the money to reach Super Tuesday.

If Hillary wins the majority of those delegates, it will be a hard climb, if not impossible, for Bernie to ever catch up with Hillary's huge delegate lead due to super delegates. And that is a fact of how the primary works.

And honestly, Bernie will be very challenged for Super Tuesday campaigning as it is not very personal due to the huge amount of states voting. It is all about media coverage and established politics (news, ads, papers, democratic leaders supporting you, etc...).
 
eyeball_kid said:
Clinton's speech tonight sounded more like a Sanders speech anything she's said in the past, talking about Wall St. regulation and Citizens United. It's obviously she's trying to capture youth vote by pivoting towards his positions, but I think it's going to just make her look inconsistent. I mean, Bernie's positions are pretty well-known already, it's not like she can sneak in the back door at this point and co-opt it.
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Those are all things she's supported in the past.
 
maabus1999 said:
Where Bernie will show if he has a chance or not is Super Tuesday. All the NH win does is make sure he has the money to reach Super Tuesday.

If Hillary wins the majority of those delegates, it will be a hard climb, if not impossible, for Bernie to ever catch up with Hillary's huge delegate lead due to super delegates.
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He'll win Vermont for sure and compete in Minnesota. Outside of that unless he can make inroads with minority voters it'll be a bloody Tuesday for him.

BoboBrazil said:
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Think this is before New Hampshire.
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That's after. He only got 20 from Iowa.
 
Sanders and negative campaign shouldn't even be in the same sentence without some form of major negation. He's been very pleasant. His supporters? Not so much. Guilty as charged.
 
maabus1999 said:
Where Bernie will show if he has a chance or not is Super Tuesday. All the NH win does is make sure he has the money to reach Super Tuesday.

If Hillary wins the majority of those delegates, it will be a hard climb, if not impossible, for Bernie to ever catch up with Hillary's huge delegate lead due to super delegates.
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The super delegates will move if he can start peeling off states, if she wins SC, NV and wins most of super Tuesday Bernie's ride is over
 
B-Dubs said:
He ain't wrong. Bernie's beet hitting her with stealth attacks for a while now and no one's called him out on it yet. He's been getting away with shit that would have sunk her 12 times over.
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After the 2008 primary campaign against Obama, it's hard to keep a straight face when ya'll accuse Bernie of running a dirty campaign.

And it's hardly "stealth attacks". Bernie's basically saying that she's in the pocket of Wall Street and big banking.
 
Blader said:
Even though I cringe whenever I read someone in the Clinton camp saying Bernie is running the most negative Democratic campaign ever, it is it kind of ridiculous how easily he gets away with stealth attacks. And shit like the voter file data breach especially exposes that double standard -- if someone on Clinton's team were caught doing that, she'd be savaged in the press over it.
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Well, that's exactly my point. I don't know if I would say Bernie's campaign is negative in how to deals with Hillary. I'd call it "deceptively kind." lol

He and his party has done everything they can to paint her as corrupt short of Bernie actually saying it himself. And Hillary's natural pragmatism doesn't really help her here.
 
Oddish1 said:
Those are all things she's supported in the past.
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I'm not saying she hasn't supported them in the past (even though her husband oversaw the deregulation of the banking system), but it hasn't really been on her stump speeches at all before now. It hasn't been a priority for her. Hence the pivoting in terms of messaging.
 
Sickboy007 said:
Get your shit together Cruz, I'm cheering for you to win on the Republican side.
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A third place in NH is pretty good for him actually.

injurai said:
I did not know. Though I'm not surprised he would be doing better there. His type of republicanism is far better than most of the right. (Though fuck his policy on education, that shit is vile)
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Kasich has done an excellent job of making people believe this. :lol

Kasich is anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, anti-union... his type of Republicanism is not that much different from Rubio, and probably a little less extreme than Jeb.
 
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