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[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

You are still discounting the enormous boost the series got with ARR.

I don't doubt that ARR restored some goodwill among a certain part of the Final Fantasy fanbase. I just don't think ARR has had much of any effect on gaining new fans to the series. I just don't see younger gamers who aren't already nostalgic for Final Fantasy playing it or any subscription-based MMORPG really when they could get what they view as a similar experience from any one of a number of F2P games.

 

[Jonm1010]

Stand By Me the movie is huge in Japan. I thought the song did a lot of favors for the trailer tbh, the 'tone' has always seemed weird with this game, but playing it with that song? Now it suddenly made perfect sense to me.

I DO however think the song is probably a lot more culturally ingrained with the movie there, whereas here people probably know the song more, and the movie is the tone they're hitting.

Makes sense where their logic likely came from then.

But to me a lot of this whole marketing strategy revealed last night screams of a Japanese company still not quite sure how to market their franchise to a Western audience. Which worries me for when the real marketing blitz happens.

And western success is what they are going to need for this game to be successful given the way Japan has grown less and less relevant as a viable sales market.

 

[NHarmonic.]

I think FFXIII sold like 7 or 8 million off of one release. Don't underestimate FFXV. Final Fantasy will reclaim its throne. You'll all see.

I love how hopeful you are. But after a generation of irrelevancy this seems hard.

I hope, for the best of SE, that FFXV succeeds. It'll probably not breakeven, but if they give life again to the franchise, FF7R and XVI will crown them again as the kings of Jrpgs.

 

[Jonm1010]

Not the initial release but if you add in the yet-to-be-announced PC version, VR version, PS4K version and so on the chance is there...

I hate to say it but milking is probably their logic here. I wouldn't be surprised if the PC version is withheld until the likely 4K release with DLC unfortunately.

 

[FullMetalx117]

I can see it doing that. The "look" of the game is edgy/cool so mass appeal is there. This doesn't look like your typical jrpg and theme is definitely for more western appeal. I can see a jump in sales similar to that of oblivion -Skyrim in terms of proportion (not actual sales).

 

[Jawmuncher]

I don't doubt that ARR restored some goodwill among a certain part of the Final Fantasy fanbase. I just don't think ARR has had much of any effect on gaining new fans to the series. I just don't see younger gamers who aren't already nostalgic for Final Fantasy playing it or any subscription-based MMORPG really when they could get what they view as a similar experience from any one of a number of F2P games.

I agree with this. The goodwill ARR built was from the hardcore fanbase of FF mainly. It's not really going to factor into mainline sales too much.

 

[Thoraxes]

With the JP market in the state that it's in, I wish them the best of luck.

At least the western elements they've been bringing in make a lot more sense with this number.

 

[Shadowplay1979]

So if this game significantly underperforms... is it going to be the death of mainline final fantasy games?

I hope so..then they can dismantle and sell assets to Mistwalker =p

 

[Roni]

Maybe this is the final fantasy.

 

[Ravidrath]

FF13 destroyed the series' relevancy.

FF13 did a lot of damage, and I think much moreso than FF14 1.0 did, despite how Square wants us to think about it.

And that's why the marketing for this is so insane - it's very much about marketing FFXV, but moreso reviving the relevance of the FF brand.

The bigger reality is that the FF brand won't be relevant until they can produce good games in a timely manner. So even if FFXV is a 10M-selling hit, we're still probably looking at another 5 years until FFXVI.

And while that works for games like GTA, FF will never connect at the cultural level that those games will. So without frequent, quality releases, I don't see how they're going to get that back.

But to me a lot of this whole marketing strategy revealed last night screams of a Japanese company still not quite sure how to market their franchise to a Western audience. Which worries me for when the real marketing blitz happens.

Japanese companies don't know how to market to Westerners because they won't actually let Westerners do the marketing.

Square USA has to run everything by Japan, and Japan will veto it, despite having no knowledge of the US market or marketing.

 

[Thoraxes]

Stand By Me the movie is huge in Japan. I thought the song did a lot of favors for the trailer tbh, the 'tone' has always seemed weird with this game, but playing it with that song? Now it suddenly made perfect sense to me.

I DO however think the song is probably a lot more culturally ingrained with the movie there, whereas here people probably know the song more, and the movie is the tone they're hitting.

To me it felt weird because his "bros" are the people who serve him first

I can't really get past seeing them as anything other than his guardians or caretakers assigned to him.

 

[SolicitorPirate]

On a personal note, I told my 15-year old daughter who is a big FF fan (her favorites are 7 & 9) about the launch date when it got leaked and asked her what she thought about FF15. She said she'll probably play it at some point just because it's a mainline FF but she's not excited for it at all. She's super-psyched for Persona 5 though.

Great tastes in JRPGs just runs in your family, doesn't it?

 

[Trojan]

It'll help, but those are still HUGE numbers to hit.

The games you're talking about have crack American marketing teams selling to Americans, whereas Japan will insist on putting its stamp on everything for this game and force it through, even if the US office literally tells them "this song is old and will turn off anyone under the age of 40."

Agreed, I would not be betting on them. 10 million would be an absolute best case for Square vs "a success"

 

[Admiral Woofington]

To me it felt weird because his "bros" are the people who serve him first

I can't really get past seeing them as anything other than his guardians or caretakers assigned to him.

doesn't help the anime is all about two of them acting as his guardians/parents, arguing about not babying him because he won't eat his vegetables.

Is that what bros are in Japan? In the US we'd be like

"Yeah bro, vegetables are for old people anyways fuck them"

"yeah fuck them bro, let's go get wasted"

 

[Aters]

I hope so..then they can dismantle and sell assets to Mistwalker =p

As if Mistwalker is rich enough to buy anything.

 

[MoonFrog]

Hmmm. I'm not intending to buy it but I would like Square to convince me otherwise even if that seems like something unlikely to happen; especially because at this point I'd be buying a PS4 for it. Maybe if it comes out on PC or NX I'd buy it if I'd heard enough good things despite it looking like something I don't particularly want.

Idk I never bought 13 but I did that Easter thing (bad idea) and now have XIII-2 so the completionist in me sort of wants to buy XIII . Maybe I will and the same thing will happen with XV down the line...

But yeah, I'd rather be in a world where I wanted to buy FFXV. At least I'm excited for DQ XI .

 

[packy34]

MGSV numbers sound way off considering there are around 1m users on Steam alone.

 

[The God]

What are the potential consequences if it didn't reach 10 million?

 

[Mihos]

I can only guarantee 1.... 2 with a steam release

What are the potential consequences if it didn't reach 10 million?

Basically you get the characters in the new Kingdom Hearts game and a special stage in Record Keeper

 

[charsace]

I remember when people were trying to say this game cost them nothing.

Any game that is in development more than 3 years is a money sink.

 

[Sandfox]

A big gap between major FF releases and the epic failed FFXIV initial launch will do that. You are still discounting the enormous boost the series got with ARR. Heck, even the recent FFRK app is a big success.

I liked ARR, but I think you're overstating the effect it had, especially now with how things seem to be going with that game.

 

[Robert at Zeboyd Games]

What are the potential consequences if it didn't reach 10 million?

FF16 becomes this:

 

[hirokazu]

They probably make at least 3x the money of the standard edition from the UCE. Sounds like if they made enough UCE to meet demand, they'd offset a lot of that.

 

[Jonm1010]

Japanese companies don't know how to market to Westerners because they won't actually let Westerners do the marketing.

Square USA has to run everything by Japan, and Japan will veto it, despite having no knowledge of the US market or marketing.

Ouch, guess that explains a lot. I guess my marketing concerns are pretty warranted then.

I definitely got the vibe this whole strategy was coming from an out of touch place but didn't want to presume, but this kinda literally confirms that haha.

 

[A-V-B]

On a personal note, I told my 15-year old daughter who is a big FF fan (her favorites are 7 & 9) about the launch date when it got leaked and asked her what she thought about FF15. She said she'll probably play it at some point just because it's a mainline FF but she's not excited for it at all. She's super-psyched for Persona 5 though.

Yup. People get excited by the promise of a quality experience. Persona has been a VERY reliable series, and still has the same artistic leaders on board. Unless they lose their minds in a quagmire of creative indifference, the next game's gonna be a treat.

Who's left from the old days of Final Fantasy? Not Sakaguchi, not Uematsu... nearly all the old ranchers are gone. Kitase, right? He's still around, but he's not even working on FFXV, and hasn't been a scenario writer since FFX.

Square-Enix is almost at a point where they have to prove themselves like they've never existed.

 

[Hero Prinny]

FF16 becomes this:

ff16 to be goty if ff15 bombs confirmed.

 

[Kyzer]

interesting that FFXV will once again possibly be their final fantasy.

except it doesnt seem like they are going all out because its their final fantasy, as much as they are going all out to turn everything they spent their money on into something profitable.


that being said, i actually think they could do 10m

 

[Toth]

I liked ARR, but I think you're overstating the effect it had, especially now with how things seem to be going with that game.

The buzz the game and the series got after ARR came out was huge though. Every magazine and every website ran with some story about the epic 'rebirth' the game was given and its revival of the franchise. It is one of, if not the biggest, successes SE has ever had, both financially and image-wise.

 

[old]

Well, when do they plan to sell the first copy? 2032?

Can't sell copies of games you take ages to make.

 

[Moaradin]

A big gap between major FF releases and the epic failed FFXIV initial launch will do that. You are still discounting the enormous boost the series got with ARR. Heck, even the recent FFRK app is a big success.

ARR is probably my favorite Final Fantasy since FF6 but I still don't have much faith in the mainline series. ARR is good because of Yoshida. Put him in charge of FF16 and then I'll be excited.

 

[oneils]

Of course it's not going to be GTA level. The most recent GTA has sold over 50m units. But 10m over the course of its life really isn't all that outlandish. As I mentioned, even The Last of Us is close to or has possibly exceeded that number. And that's a new IP.

The last of us was bundled with the ps4. Are you including those copies in your 10m figure? I wouldn't have a copy of the game otherwise. My ps4 came with the last of us and a 50 dollar discount.

 

[Dame]

...

I cannot see this doing 10 million considering the series is coming off of the 13 saga.

This and what, a ten plus year cycle of it's semi-existence? The anticipation has probably faded for many folks. 10 mill is a really lofty goal.

FF13 sold 9 mill copies

Really good point, but this was because none of us knew what we were in for, myself included. Sales went downward with each sequel.

 

[Indelible]

I actually think this has a chance of reaching 10 million, they are doing an incredible job of promoting it.

 

[gafneo]

FF13 sold 9 mill copies

 

[Jonm1010]

Yup. People get excited by the promise of a quality experience. Persona has been a VERY reliable series, and still has the same artistic leaders on board. Unless they lose their minds in a quagmire of creative indifference, the next game's gonna be a treat.

Who's left from the old days of Final Fantasy? Not Sakaguchi, not Uematsu... nearly all the old ranchers are gone. Kitase, right? He's still around, but he's not even working on FFXV, and hasn't been a scenario writer since FFX.

Square-Enix is almost at a point where they have to prove themselves like they've never existed.

That is certainly where I am at.

They actually began losing me with FFX but XII drew me back in thanks to the finally maturing approach to their storytelling. Though when I learned about why the issues I had with the game were present, I began feeling like that was the moment I knew S/E had lost it.

13 just reinforced that and I hate to say it, but 15 hasn't done much to convince me differently. Like MGS, I am just hoping the gameplay is enough to make me forget about what is shaping up to be a pretty bad story.

 

[Garuroh]

That's a lot. I hope they come close at least.

 

[oneils]

They probably make at least 3x the money of the standard edition from the UCE. Sounds like if they made enough UCE to meet demand, they'd offset a lot of that.

Someone else in the thread mentioned that 30,000 copies of the ultimate collectors edition were made. So they likely won't make a dent.

 

[Madao]

i think not even a console NX port would get them to 10 million.

 

[Justice_Bolt]

What the hell? They are insane.

 

[Wagram]

You are still discounting the enormous boost the series got with ARR.

ARR may have been a boost for some, but it wasn't for others. The director sold people (the very same loyal people keeping that trash heap afloat) on a product that was supposed to be a restructuring of ideas and then proceeded to bait and switch his audience with ideas copied straight from another MMO. I have far more respect for a person like Tanaka who was rushed and failed than someone who copied the playbook of another MMO and created another generic clone.

 

[Bluenoser]

Wonder how much Kingsglaive set them back. Are they including its costs in the revenue 10 million copies of the game will bring in? Because revenue from the movie itself will be peanuts. Paul, Headey and Bean don't come cheap.

 

[ElMexiMerican]

Well, I could see how the game would be something that a more western audience would be interested in. If they market it right, it could do pretty well in the west, although I'm seriously skeptical it can exceed 10 million even if that's the case.

FF13 sold 9 mill copies

Where did you see this? The only thing I've seen is that all FFXIII games combined have sold over 11 million
http://www.craveonline.com/site/761749-final-fantasy-13-trilogy-shipped-11-million-copies

 

[Aters]

Wonder how much Kingsglaive set them back. Are they including its costs in the revenue 10 million copies of the game will bring in? Because revenue from the movie itself will be peanuts. Paul, Headey and Bean don't come cheap.

I'd say if the film can breakeven (which seems likely), they are fine. The film is just a huge ad for the game, and better yet: it can generate enough money to pay for itself.

 

[Carlius]

high spec version for PC

 

[Astral Dog]

i think not even a console NX port would get them to 10 million.

lol, NX.
it wont get anything

 

[Sterok]

i think not even a console NX port would get them to 10 million.

Then obviously Square is going to make a handheld NX port xD.

Though that would probably push it to 10 million if it were possible.

 

[Red Devil]

The majority of JRPG's don't really pull those kind of numbers anymore. If one can do it in 2016, FF would be the only one. I don't see it, though.

Outside of Pokémon(and even that takes its time to reach that number) is there any JRPG series that makes those numbers at all?

i think not even a console NX port would get them to 10 million.

Even with that and/or a PC port the majority of the audience is with the PS4, it might help much.

Probably it doesn't need to sell that much to be succesful either way.

 

[Square2015]

Hopefully (my graph) of much research still be accurate:

[Values]? = regions I don't have solid sources.

 

[texhnolyze]

high spec version for PC

For PS4K & XB1.5 as well.

Hopefully (my graph) of much research still be accurate:

That XIV numbers can't be right.
The game has sold 5 million copy back in July 2015. With all the subscription money over the years, it's arguably the most successful (in term of revenue generated) FF of all time.

 

[razoftblend]

It could've sold that if it had been released at the beginning of last gen and before FF 13. Then again, those numbers may include GotY editions and re-releases.