April 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 10th

R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Ok let's do this.

TOP TEN prediction

1) Dark Souls III (PS4; XBO; PC)
2) Tom Clancy's: The Division (PS4; XBO; PC)
3) Ratchet & Clank (PS4)
4) Quantum Break (XBO)
5) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
6) MLB 16: The Show (PS4; PS3)
7) UFC 2 (PS4, XBO)
8) Far Cry: Primal (PS4; XBO; PC)
9) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
10) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)

• Dark Souls III will sell over 500,000. 70% on PS4, 30% on XBO.
• Ratchet & Clank will sell over 250,000.
• Quantum Break will sell over 200,000. (including bundle)
• Bravely Second will sell over 100,000.
• Star Fox 0 will sell almost 80,000.

*only retail numbers, not including digital
 
P

Primethius

Banned
DriftingSpirit said:
Any particular reason or is it just a feeling?
Click to expand...

A bit of both combined with trying to be a bit of a contrarian (since most expect R&C to be above QB). Plus, I have to maintain my spotless record of getting all my bets and predictions wrong.

Reasoning wise, I think it comes down to expectations and how front-loaded each game is/was. QB, I expect MS had higher expectations for so they shipped out more for launch. Where as R&C, Sony/Insomniac seem to have been taken by surprise and the sales are really coming in the form of legs as more shipments arrive. I fully expect R&C to outsell QB in the long run, but do I think R&C can do it with less days tracked when most of the sales seem to be a result from the incredibly positive word of mouth? I'm not so sure.

I know the reasoning isn't the strong but I think both will end up around the 250k mark personally with QB just edging out R&C due to the extra week on the market.

Or... I'm completely wrong yet again. It's a win-win for me really, since I own R&C.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Primethius said:
A bit of both combined with trying to be a bit of a contrarian (since most expect R&C to be above QB). Plus, I have to maintain my spotless record of getting all my bets and predictions wrong.

Reasoning wise, I think it comes down to expectations and how front-loaded each game is/was. QB, I expect MS had higher expectations for so they shipped out more for launch. Where as R&C, Sony/Insomniac seem to have been taken by surprise and the sales are really coming in the form of legs as more shipments arrive. I fully expect R&C to outsell QB in the long run, but do I think R&C can do it with less days tracked when most of the sales seem to be a result from the incredibly positive word of mouth? I'm not so sure.

I know the reasoning isn't the strong but I think both will end up around the 250k mark personally with QB just edging out R&C due to the extra week on the market.

Or... I'm completely wrong yet again. It's a win-win for me really, since I own R&C.
Click to expand...
Sounds fair and reasonable to me!

I just want R&C to do well. I'm entertaining the R&C > QB or vice versa stuff for kicks. Just some NPD fun.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
ethomaz said:
I have bad feelings for this month :(

Edit - Why people are expecting MLB to be so high? It is the second month.
Click to expand...

I do too. Nothing to push hardware besides the lower price of entry and XB1's trade-in deals (which it had last year as well). I'm thinking flat at best. Could come out completely different as usual.

Very few days tracked in April. Last year it charted higher in April than it did in March. Same situation. This year UFC and Zelda should fall out. Probably Far Cry too. MineCraft is slowing down. Not touching GTA or Division though. And none of the new releases will outsell it. All in all it should place high on the list.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I MADE A DREAM.

I swear. I'm not joking. Was about The NPD.

Xbox one wins :O PS4 sells 144K... Ok it was a dream but i'm honestly scared lmfao.
 
S

Sterok

Member
[3DS] 90K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 30K
[XB1] 180K

Ratchet overperforms my previous predictions and lands in the top 3. Hopefully my number 3 streak continues.

Since we've got a pretty good idea of what's coming out this year, anyone want to predict what the top 10 for the year will be? My guesses:

Guaranteed: Infinite Warfare, GTAV, Madden 17, NBA 17, The Division, Watch Dogs 2, Battlefield 5

Likely: Minecraft, Fifa 17, Black Ops III

Possible: Final Fantasy XV, Uncharted 4, Pokemon Sun, Pokemon Moon

Anything I miss or over/underestimate?
 
freefornow

freefornow

Member
Primethius said:
Bold Prediction:
- Quantum Break beats out R&C (bundles included)
Click to expand...

I made an avatar bet stating this at the tail end of last months prediction thread.
May have been at your call out if i recall, but I dont think it was taken up.
I went as far as saying that R&C wouldnt be in the top 10.
Lol
Abdiel's "muted start" comment is reassuring.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
freefornow said:
I made an avatar bet stating this at the tail end of last months prediction thread.
May have been at your call out if i recall, but I dont think it was taken up.
I went as far as saying that R&C wouldnt be in the top 10.
Lol
Abdiel's "muted start" comment is reassuring.
Click to expand...
Well, he also said it picked up after that. We also have the fastest selling information.

Either way, stick with your convictions! Bets aren't fun if someone gives up halfway through. :p
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
slavesnyder said:
I understood that reference.
Click to expand...

I surely get it too, but i would like a confirmation. ;)

Sterok said:
Ratchet overperforms my previous predictions and lands in the top 3. Hopefully my number 3 streak continues.

Since we've got a pretty good idea of what's coming out this year, anyone want to predict what the top 10 for the year will be? My guesses:

Guaranteed: Infinite Warfare, GTAV, Madden 17, NBA 17, The Division, Watch Dogs 2, Battlefield 5

Likely: Minecraft, Fifa 17, Black Ops III

Possible: Final Fantasy XV, Uncharted 4, Pokemon Sun, Pokemon Moon

Anything I miss or over/underestimate?
Click to expand...

This could be the first time in years withouth two COD in TOP TEN. The reason is that the PS4 bundle is eating lot of original SKUs sales. Lasts two months PS4 bundle was bigger than all other SKUs combined (PS4+XBO+PS3+360+PC).

Agreed on all guaranteed and likely (of course), while i hardly see the possible be "that possible" honestly... Last year all game in TOP TEN were at least 2 million. All withouth bundle. I don't see none of the 4 (QUATTRO) games in TOP TEN... of course Sun and moon separate, combined SKUs they would surely chart.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
StrongBlackVine said:
I think you grossly over-value historical data...
Click to expand...

Yeah no, there is precedent for hardware deals affecting hardware sales.

PS4 is not guaranteed to win every month. That's never been the case for any recent gen.

I actually wonder if I'll be the only one to have the XB1 win by the time the predictions end.
 
R

Raylan

Banned
Amazon April Charts:

#3 Ratchet & Clank
#5 Uncharted 4
#8 Dark Souls 3 Day 1 Edition (PS4)
#9 Star Fox
#18 PS4 Console + COD
#19 Quantum Break
#25 MLB 16 The Show
#27 Dark Souls 3 Standard Edition (PS4)
#38 Dark Souls 3 Day 1 Edition (XBO)
#83 Uncharted 4 Libertalia Collector's Edition
#90 PS4 Standalone Console
#91 Xbox One Console + Quantum Break
#100 Dark Souls 3 Collectors Edition (PS4)
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Welfare said:
Yeah no, there is precedent for hardware deals affecting hardware sales.

PS4 is not guaranteed to win every month. That's never been the case for any recent gen.

I actually wonder if I'll be the only one to have the XB1 win by the time the predictions end.
Click to expand...

Well PS4 won on Amazon.com and also won at Best Buy according to Abdiel so the evidence is pointing to a PS4 win so far. I don't think any one has said Xbox can never win another month. I think Gears 4 release is their next best chance to win one though.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
StrongBlackVine said:
Well PS4 won on Amazon.com and also won at Best Buy according to Abdiel so the evidence is pointing to a PS4 win so far. I don't think any one has said Xbox can never win another month. I think Gears 4 release is their next best chance to win one though.
Click to expand...

Gamestop by far was the smartest place to buy an Xbox One for 3 weeks of the month. I don't see how that deal did not spread like wild fire, and we were seeing the XB1 drop like a rock on Amazon soon after the trade in deal started.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Welfare said:
Gamestop by far was the smartest place to buy an Xbox One for 3 weeks of the month. I don't see how that deal did not spread like wild fire, and we were seeing the XB1 drop like a rock on Amazon soon after the trade in deal started.
Click to expand...

How long has deal been going on going on? Seems like I read similar reasoning(not by you in particular) for last month's NPD predictions.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
StrongBlackVine said:
How long has deal been going on going on? Seems like I read similar reasoning(not by you in particular) for last month's NPD predictions.
Click to expand...

The Gamestop deal started on the same as the price drop (March 20th) and ended April 24th, so 5 weeks. 2 in March, 3 in April. The price cut ended on the 30th, so that lasted a week after.
 
C

Cow Goes Moo

Member
Raylan said:
NPD February:

NPD March:

I predict 'Cow Goes Moo' will once again ignore that PS4 has the COD bundle and will be suprised that XBO is front regarding the COD single copy retail sales.
Click to expand...

i do that every month just to annoy rex lol

but hes banned so \(._.)/
 
R

Regiruler

Member
Different genres and different systems, but I'll play it anyway.

Star Fox Zero will sell more than Bravely Second. The marketing for second has been somewhat of a dud, whereas Zero's marketing has been much stronger.
It either charts at 10 or neither of them chart.
 
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