United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love

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For foreigners or Americans alike, this is probably the best visualization of the current standings.

Gray states are tossups and could go either way. Although people seem to think Florida will go to Clinton because the minorities in those states (Hispanics) are underrepresented in the polls.

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Edit: Made Nevada blue since most of the polls lean that way.
 
For foreigners or Americans alike, this is probably the best visualization of the current standings.

Gray states are tossups and could go either way. Although people seem to think Florida and Nevada will go to Clinton because the minorities in those states (Hispanics) are underrepresented in the polls.

8kzPLlk.gif

Oh, wow it's much closer then I thought :-\
 
For foreigners or Americans alike, this is probably the best visualization of the current standings.

Gray states are tossups and could go either way. Although people seem to think Florida and Nevada will go to Clinton because the minorities in those states (Hispanics) are underrepresented in the polls.

8kzPLlk.gif

Nevada is not a tossup. It will take a miracle for Trump to win there.

Florida and NC are increasingly likely Clinton wins as well.
 
For foreigners or Americans alike, this is probably the best visualization of the current standings.

Gray states are tossups and could go either way. Although people seem to think Florida and Nevada will go to Clinton because the minorities in those states (Hispanics) are underrepresented in the polls.

8kzPLlk.gif

I mean it's always the same but each election I take a look and go maybe just maybe one or those Midwestern or southern states finally came around...

Then

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Trumps last stand
What'll happen on Tuesday
Surprised Vote or die wasn't resurrected to get some cash
Vote no on 2 in Massachusetts , fuck private schools
Vote yes on 4 to legalize ranch
 
So considering how important Florida is to Trump's path, if it is comfortably called for Clinton isn't that kind of the end of the ball game? And doesn't that usually happen not too late in the night?

Trumps last stand
What'll happen on Tuesday
Surprised Vote or die wasn't resurrected to get some cash
Vote no on 2 in Massachusetts , fuck private schools
Vote yes on 4 to legalize ranch

Gross. Ranch dressing should stay illegal.
 
Oh, wow it's much closer then I thought :-
538 is a great deal more pessimistic lately than any other model, Nate Silver in particular has been doing a great job of showing his ass by declaring the sky is falling after he spectacularly failed to predict Trump would be the Republican nominee.

Now I am typically pretty bullish (just ask the folks in PoliGAF) but it's pretty clear from early voting and other information that

1) Clinton has a pretty durable lead in a collection of states dubbed "the blue wall" (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin). Winning these states alone (in addition to the other states that are more safely Democratic) would give her 272 electoral votes.

2) Early voting has been killer in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, something not really accounted for by the 538 model. Winning those states in conjunction with the blue wall states puts her at 322, just 10 shy of Obama 2012 and 43 shy of Obama 2008.

3) The campaign still sees promise in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona even though polling there has shown a small Trump lead. PPP (a prominent Dem-affiliated pollster) tweeted that they believe Ohio will be the closest state in the country and that their most recent poll gave Clinton a small lead (it was for a private client however so no numbers are available). Clinton's ground game is extraordinary so I could imagine her flipping several states currently projected for Trump.

All in all we're probably looking at at least 300 electoral votes, a big victory in terms of modern politics, and looking at possibly 350+ in the same league as her husband's two landslide wins and Obama's landslide win in 2008.

Not to get ahead of myself but I'm not worrying too much about the results of the election. Is it terrifying that someone like Trump is allowed to get this close to the presidency? Absolutely. But I don't think he'll get the chance.
 
538 is a great deal more pessimistic lately than any other model, Nate Silver in particular has been doing a great job of showing his ass by declaring the sky is falling after he spectacularly failed to predict Trump would be the Republican nominee.

Now I am typically pretty bullish (just ask the folks in PoliGAF) but it's pretty clear from early voting and other information that

1) Clinton has a pretty durable lead in a collection of states dubbed "the blue wall" (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin). Winning these states alone (in addition to the other states that are more safely Democratic) would give her 272 electoral votes.

2) Early voting has been killer in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, something not really accounted for by the 538 model. Winning those states in conjunction with the blue wall states puts her at 322, just 10 shy of Obama 2012 and 43 shy of Obama 2008.

3) The campaign still sees promise in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona even though polling there has shown a small Trump lead. PPP (a prominent Dem-affiliated pollster) tweeted that they believe Ohio will be the closest state in the country and that their most recent poll gave Clinton a small lead (it was for a private client however so no numbers are available). Clinton's ground game is extraordinary so I could imagine her flipping several states currently projected for Trump.

All in all we're probably looking at at least 300 electoral votes, a big victory in terms of modern politics, and looking at possibly 350+ in the same league as her husband's two landslide wins and Obama's landslide win in 2008.

Not to get ahead of myself but I'm not worrying too much about the results of the election. Is it terrifying that someone like Trump is allowed to get this close to the presidency? Absolutely. But I don't think he'll get the chance.

Ok, thanks for the explanation!

It is a bit annoying that over here in the Netherlands they only look at the 538 model and say that one is very reliable.
 
Isnt 538 considered the best aggregate site though?

They predicted that obama will win easily against romney when other polls showed romney winning
 
538 is a great deal more pessimistic lately than any other model, Nate Silver in particular has been doing a great job of showing his ass by declaring the sky is falling after he spectacularly failed to predict Trump would be the Republican nominee.

Now I am typically pretty bullish (just ask the folks in PoliGAF) but it's pretty clear from early voting and other information that

1) Clinton has a pretty durable lead in a collection of states dubbed "the blue wall" (New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin). Winning these states alone (in addition to the other states that are more safely Democratic) would give her 272 electoral votes.

2) Early voting has been killer in Nevada, North Carolina and Florida, something not really accounted for by the 538 model. Winning those states in conjunction with the blue wall states puts her at 322, just 10 shy of Obama 2012 and 43 shy of Obama 2008.

3) The campaign still sees promise in Ohio, Iowa and Arizona even though polling there has shown a small Trump lead. PPP (a prominent Dem-affiliated pollster) tweeted that they believe Ohio will be the closest state in the country and that their most recent poll gave Clinton a small lead (it was for a private client however so no numbers are available). Clinton's ground game is extraordinary so I could imagine her flipping several states currently projected for Trump.

All in all we're probably looking at at least 300 electoral votes, a big victory in terms of modern politics, and looking at possibly 350+ in the same league as her husband's two landslide wins and Obama's landslide win in 2008.

Not to get ahead of myself but I'm not worrying too much about the results of the election. Is it terrifying that someone like Trump is allowed to get this close to the presidency? Absolutely. But I don't think he'll get the chance.

Pessimism is good though. I'd rather people be worried and get out to vote, than people being optimistic and staying home "cuz they don't need to".
 
It's still extremely hard to believe how far Donald Trump has come..really shocking.

It more depressing really. Depressing that such ugly nature is so abundant in this country, with the racists and other disrespectful monsters supporting Trump. But no, emails that amount to nothing are more important than the disgusting facets of the Orange Menace.
 
It's not over until Wednesday. People relaxed during Brexit.

Brexit is the dumbest false equivalence here. The only similarity is that people are going out to vote for something.

As Obama's former political campaign manager stated sometime this year, Trump has no real conceivable route to reach 270. He needs to win a whole pile of swing states that are pretty solidly in Clinton's favors. Unlike Brexit, this isn't a dumb popularity contest. Even if Trump wins the popular vote (zero serious evidence at all for this to occur), he still won't become president if he doesn't achieve 270 EVs.

The problems for Trump are many.

Most swing states are demographically diverse and Trump has pissed off literally every minority but going full racist. Reports suggest that minority turnout in Nevada, Florida and North Carolina are extremely strong. If he loses Florida, you might as call it a night since he ain't winning without it.

Then you have Trump's terrible campaign operation where he's dependent on existing Republican resources to get people to vote. That's fine in Florida, where the state party is pretty competent, but he's toast elsewhere.

Where the Deomractic Party has an all-star list helping them, from Bernie to Jay Z to Lebron James, to increase turnout, Trump doesn't really have anyone except himself and his family. He ain't appealing to anyone but his own base.

He also hasn't really got a coherent strategy wasting time by visiting areas that either don't need his support or are already lost.

So yeah Trump can win. But early polling shows he's already toast in Nevada and likely toast in Florida. And if he loses Florida and Nevada, it's game over.

Pessimism is good though. I'd rather people be worried and get out to vote, than people being optimistic and staying home "cuz they don't need to".

That's the point of a ground game (GOTV). The Democratic Party has a very strong one. Trump barely has one and it's simply not appealing to anyone but his own base.
 
I have one friend on FB who is adamant that Hillary will win only because the last 3 Presidents didn't have any sons only daughters and because Trump has a son he won't win the presidency. I mean I am all in for Hillary to win but that just caught me off guard like what did I just read.
 
Fantastic OP especially for us gawking onlookers who aren't American citizens but still want to stay informed
Absolutely agree. As a Canadian I had a general understanding of how all of this works but this post definitely cleared up a bunch of stuff. Great job.

Good luck US bros ... don't screw up.
 
Though I'll look back at the 2016 race with fond nostalgia due to how crazy it was, I'm ready for this shit to be over. Also I'm ready for Pat McRory to get the fuck out of NC, more excited for that over the Presidential race tbh.
 
So Trump has to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania to get to exactly 270.

The chances of that are basically zero.

Still, go vote you fucks.
 
So Trump has to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania to get to exactly 270.

Thr chances of that are basically zero.

Still, go vote you fucks.

This. Trump may be looking miserable but that doesn't mean rest easy. Don't just knock him down, kick him while he's down. In the figurative sense of course. Send the message that ilk like him aren't wanted in the White House.
 
The sad thing is that even if Trump loses this election, he's normalized a lot of crazy stuff. I worry a lot about the future elections especially if Hillary does something controversial during her first term.

Can't wait to hear Trump's shitty speech if he loses. I bet it's all going to be accusations of rigging.
 
NY Times Upshot made a great interactive where you can sift through how groups voted in 2012 by race, sex, age range, education level, and state. Given that 2012 is the closest recent presidential election, the interactive gives a general idea of how the country votes.

Bloomberg Politics made a 2016 poll decoder in which, without you needing to sift through the polls coming out, they pull information from the polls and show in an easy to read format how the demographics are leaning.

On the Elections Project site you can follow overall early voting numbers in a skinny column with a spreadsheet embedded in it (lol)

Brian Amos made an "Early Voting in Florida" interactive where you can go over how the map looks in Florida thus far.
 
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