United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love

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plop said:
So 538 gives Republicans a ~54% chance to keep the Senate, while Wang gives Democrats a 79% chance to take control.

Why such a wide disparity? I get they have different models, but that's a hell of a wide gulf.

Will be interesting to see who's right.
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Might be that 538 considers 'Democratic control' to mean an outright majority, while PEC considers a 50-50 split to imply a majority as a Clinton victory is at 99% in their model.

They are both predicting a 50-50 split, regardless.
 
plop said:
So 538 gives Republicans a ~54% chance to keep the Senate, while Wang gives Democrats a 79% chance to take control.

Why such a wide disparity? I get they have different models, but that's a hell of a wide gulf.

Will be interesting to see who's right.
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Nate Silver was bit by a radioactive Karl Rove.

ryseing said:
If HRC gets elected, do the Repubs accept Garland in fear that she will nominate someone more liberal?
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lolno. It's the will of the people that there be only Republican appointed Supreme Court Justices.
 
plop said:
So 538 gives Republicans a ~54% chance to keep the Senate, while Wang gives Democrats a 79% chance to take control.

Why such a wide disparity? I get they have different models, but that's a hell of a wide gulf.

Will be interesting to see who's right.
Click to expand...

Always bet on Wang.
 
ryseing said:
If HRC gets elected, do the Repubs accept Garland in fear that she will nominate someone more liberal?
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Depends.

If they end up with 51 seats, they'll refuse to hold hearings for another four years. (plz)

If they end up at 50 seats, it will depend on how confident they are that they can filibuster a confirmation vote for two years.

If they end up with 49 seats, they'll confirm him.
 
Team Alucard said:
Depends.

If they end up with 51 seats, they'll refuse to hold hearings for another four years. (plz)

If they end up at 50 seats, it will depend on how confident they are that they can filibuster a confirmation vote for four years.

If they end up with 49 seats, they'll confirm him.
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Dude.

Let go of how you feel about Democrats. Leaving a SC seat open for four years is absolutely unacceptable.

The longest time a SC vacancy in the modern era has been open is 391 days.
 
Team Alucard said:
Might be that 538 considers 'Democratic control' to mean an outright majority, while PEC considers a 50-50 split to imply a majority as a Clinton victory is at 99% in their model.

They are both predicting a 50-50 split, regardless.
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I'm not saying you're wrong, but where are you seeing that?

I only see this, which appears to show them predicting actual Republican control, rather than a 50-50:

2016_11_07_12_54_17.png
 
As an outsider, can someone tell me how Republicans could still control the Senate even if they lose, or am I misinterpreting something. That seems unbelievably broken
 
Alienfan said:
As an outsider, can someone tell me how Republicans could still control the Senate even if they lose, or am I misinterpreting something. That seems unbelievably broken
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Elections for Congress and President are separate. Somebody could vote for Hillary for President but choose a Republican as the Senator from their state.
 
Alienfan said:
As an outsider, can someone tell me how Republicans could still control the Senate even if they lose, or am I misinterpreting something. That seems unbelievably broken
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The Senate and presidency are voted on separately. Just because the Dems win the presidency doesn't mean they win the Senate. They are separate votes.
 
Alienfan said:
As an outsider, can someone tell me how Republicans could still control the Senate even if they lose, or am I misinterpreting something. That seems unbelievably broken
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It's not "broken," it's a crucial part of the checks and balances that make our democracy work. The President does not have absolute power and needs to work alongside Congress. Therefore you elect a president and you elect Congress members to represent you.

The problem is when half of Congress refuses to work with the other half or the president, when said president is not a member of their party. The Republican Congress is what has broken the system, not the system itself.
 
I just can't believe the FBI director going "there might be more emails!" and then days later going "oops it was nothing, nevermind guys!" did so much damage.
 
KuwabaraTheMan said:
It's not going to be happen during her first term barring something completely unexpected. The districts are just too screwed up to let that happen.
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there isn't any loophole?

I remember how us Canadians last year were pissed at how screwed up our voting system was so we all basically teamed together and abused a certain loophole to get Harper and his cronies out
 
TheRealTalker said:
there isn't any loophole?

I remember how us Canadians last year were pissed at how screwed up our voting system was so we all basically teamed together and abused a certain loophole to get Harper and his cronies out
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Our Congressional districts are gerrymandered to hell and back, which means the lines are drawn favorably to whatever party had power at the time. Every census the districts change.
 
Team Alucard said:
Might be that 538 considers 'Democratic control' to mean an outright majority, while PEC considers a 50-50 split to imply a majority as a Clinton victory is at 99% in their model.

They are both predicting a 50-50 split, regardless.
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It does not consider that since it defers to vice president for ties. Majority is at least 50-50 w/ Hillary winning.
 
Gordon Shumway said:
Mission accomplished..
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Pretty much. I'm going to channel my inner Amirox and say FUCK Comey. I hope his career gets brutalized. If there is a way for Obama to shitcan his ass after the election, then he should do it. I rather the exiting President do it instead of the entering one.
 
dabig2 said:
Pretty much. I'm going to channel my inner Amirox and say FUCK Comey. I hope his career gets brutalized. If there is a way for Obama to shitcan his ass after the election, then he should do it. I rather the exiting President do it instead of the entering one.
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Makes you wonder if a Democratic FBI Director would have done the same.
 
Team Alucard said:
Depends.

If they end up with 51 seats, they'll refuse to hold hearings for another four years. (plz)

If they end up at 50 seats, it will depend on how confident they are that they can filibuster a confirmation vote for two years.

If they end up with 49 seats, they'll confirm him.
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Bolded: while I agree this is a likelihood in that event, it's still an irresponsible thing to hope for.

The GOP played games with this after Scalia's death, claiming that the next President should make the decision. Are you suggesting they should backtread on that because their candidate failed?
 
zethren said:
Bolded: while I agree this is a likelihood in that event, it's still an irresponsible thing to hope for.

The GOP played games with this after Scalia's death, claiming that the next President should make the decision. Are you suggesting they should backtread on that because their candidate failed?
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It's Team Alucard.
 
Betty said:
538 is just doing one big u turn at the moment and it's glorious.
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Seriously WTF lol? Him not sticking to his guns really makes me doubt his methods. The one real worry I have is the black vote in North Carolina looks like it's down 6% in early voting due to voter suppression/Obama not being on he ticket. Just want it to be an early night. Can't take this stress anymore.
 
zethren said:
I'm fully aware lol
Even still, answering to such a ridiculous sentiment is something I'd like to see.
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He's a self hating member of the LGBTQ community that is convinced the Supreme Court will take away his guns. His guns are so important to him that a perceived threat to them is more important than discrimination towards minorities under Trump.

There isn't a conversation that can be had there.
 
rjinaz said:
He's a self hating member of the LGBTQ community that is convinced the Supreme Court will take away his guns. His guns are so important to him that a perceived threat to them is more important than discrimination towards minorities under Trump.

There isn't a conversation that can be had there.
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You put it quite more nicely than I could've.

(And as a queer with a gun collection that would make Mike Huckabee blush, I'm still waiting for Bill Clinton and Obama to come for my firearms. Any moment now.. right, Alucard?)
 
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