United States Election: Nov. 8, 2016 |OT| Hate Trumps Love

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rjinaz said:
Like how are you scared of Hillary as president? Like what is she going to do to you personally or even to the country at large enough to be scared? I mean if you are worried about war or something, Donald "stop being PC" Trump was far more dangerous to this country when it comes to potential wars.
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When I talk to people about this, the ones that are in that group are taking Clinton's past actions and Trump's bluster, and figuring in that regard that the actions speak louder than words. Also "no fly zone".

And there's another group who is scared about taxes, but they are always going to be scared of that regardless of which Democrat is running.
 
MagnaderAlpha said:
Man, that's scary. Change for the sake of change is not a good thing. I mean, compared to where we are now, a zombie apocalypse could be considered a "change", but I doubt people would want that kind of change. Also, those with more experience, better judgement and care more about the people are likely to make the decisions to make a change that not only benefits all, but is good for us in the long run.
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I'm embarrassed to live in Ohio to be honest. There are Trump supporters everywhere around Columbus.
 
Got to love the BBC's virtual maps.

8M0GClX.png




The US networks visualization stuff is pretty poor in comparison.
 
This thread moves fast so I am not sure if these have been reposted. Handy guides to battleground states and closing times.

Box of Kittens said:
Here are the battleground states with abbreviations (to match them up with the map in the OP) and closing times. These categories are somewhat arbitrary and you could shift several into other categories or even take a couple off the board or maybe put one or two others on depending on if you want to be aggressive or conservative. The times I have listed are when the final polls close in each state. It can take a long time to count results after that, so be patient.

The major battlegrounds:

Ohio (OH) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC.

North Carolina (NC) - 7:30 EST/12:30 UTC

Florida (FL) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Most polls will close an hour before but there will be no calls until after the final poll closings.

New Hampshire (NH) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Again some polls will close earlier. There are even one or two small towns (I mean really small, like 50 or so people combined) who have a tradition of voting at midnight and reporting their results immediately, so the first incredibly early (and incredibly meaningless) returns will come in a little after 5:00 AM UTC.

Nevada (NV) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC. Polls indicate a very close race, but the demographics and partisan composition of the early vote look good for Clinton.

States where a Trump victory likely indicates bad news for Clinton:

Virginia (VA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC. Beware that this takes a long time to call usually because the Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia take a long time to count. Early returns will likely show Trump with a nominal lead with Clinton surging ahead later.

Pennsylvania (PA) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC

Maine (ME) - 8:00 EST/1:00 UTC. Maine shouldn't be that competitive, but they do have a provision for splitting their electoral votes by congressional district. Long story short, Trump is unlikely to win but could win one of its four electoral votes.

Michigan (MI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC. Actually almost all the polls will have closed an hour earlier so we may have an idea how it's going before that. Only a few rural areas wait until 9:00.

Wisconsin (WI) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Colorado (CO) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

States where a Clinton victory likely indicates bad news for Trump:

Georgia (GA) - 7:00 EST/12:00 UTC

Arizona (AZ) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC

Nebraska (NE) - 9:00 EST/2:00 UTC - Like Maine, this isn't really contested but has provisions for splitting its electoral votes by congressional district, and Clinton has a shot at taking one of its five votes.

Iowa (IA) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC

Utah (UT) - 10:00 EST/3:00 UTC - This is an unusual case. Utah is one of the most Republican states in the country but Trump is unappealing to the largely Mormon population. Evan McMullin, a Republican running as an independent, has been polling strongly and could take the state or take enough Republican votes to give Clinton the victory.

Any other results would be pretty big surprises. If, say, Clinton wins Missouri (MO) or Texas (TX) or Trump wins Minnesota (MN) or Oregon (OR), that's probably the election right there barring some wacky results elsewhere.

Note that if Trump wins every state he's supposed to (including the ones like GA or AZ that I listed) and wins every major battleground, that gets him to a 269-269 tie (which would probably be resolved in his favor by the House of Representatives but that's a whole story of its own). Add in the one vote from Maine or any state from the "Clinton should win list" like VA or PA then he wins. But the long story short is that Clinton has many paths to victory and Trump has few. If she wins even one of the major battlegrounds then Trump needs to pull off an upset elsewhere.
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pigeon said:
Excellent post!

Quick breakdown of important states by time of poll closing:

7:00 PM
* Virginia -- Basically a blue state now. Virginia doesn't always count quickly and the polls stay open while people are in line, so it's quite possible it won't get called early, but if it stays too close to call (instead of too early) for a long time, it might not be a great sign for Hillary.
* Georgia -- A normally red state, but Trump's been pretty weak here. Trump needs to win this to really have any chance. If it gets called fast for Trump, good sign for him.
7:30 PM
* North Carolina -- A battleground state. Trump must win all of these. Hillary basically just needs one, unless she starts losing otherwise blue states.
* Ohio -- Battleground. Leaning towards Trump, but Hillary might have a shot to win this for the land.
8:00 PM
* Florida -- The battleground of battlegrounds. Almost always gets called late.
* New Hampshire -- Battleground, but kind of a little baby one.
* Maine -- Maine's second district is a battleground with 1 electoral vote. Hopefully won't matter, because the situations where it matters aren't great.
9:00 PM
* Arizona -- A normally red state that might be in danger this year thanks to Latino turnout. Trump doesn't just want to win this, he wants to win it easily.
* Colorado -- Battleground.
* Michigan -- A normally blue state that might be tighter. Bad if Hillary loses this, although she might still make it up by winning battlegrounds.
* Texas-- One of the redder states in the union -- when Latinos don't turn out to vote. If this isn't called for Trump immediately it's going to be a real bad night for him.
* Nebraska -- Nebraska's second district may be a one vote battleground. Again, hopefully just for bragging rights.
10:00 PM
* Iowa -- Battleground.
* Nevada -- Battleground. Probably already gone for Hillary thanks to early vote. Yes, if Hillary wins every solid blue state plus Virginia, Michigan (both pretty blue) and Nevada, the election is over.
* Utah -- BY GOD! IS THAT EVAN MCMULLIN'S MUSIC?
1:00 AM
* Alaska -- Probably doesn't matter, but if Hillary has a big win, you might want to stay up to see whether she can pick up the Last Frontier.
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Also, remember early returns are not representative.
 
| Praxis | said:
If Trump takes Florida it's worrying isn't it?
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Ehhhh. It's great for Hillary if she takes it because it closes virtually every path to victory for him. Trump has to take Florida and ALSO do a bunch of other stuff to win. Personally it would be mildly disappointing but not worrying.
 
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