Too early for a PS5 but not too early for the next PS4 revision.
Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Too early for a PS5 but not too early for the next PS4 revision.
Swimmer9800
Member
when was the last time Pachter made an astute prediction?
Prototype Viktor
Member
Please is going to jump to PS9 and use Google's TPU's and all games will have 1 difficulty. Google AI vs you
I'm guessing:
AMD Mega APU
20-25TF (larger Apu on 7nm+)
32GB ram (minimum)
$499.99 ($399 in 2005=$499)
2021
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I'm not buying another PS with a Jaguar. Actually I probably would to play the exclusives the best way possible, but I'm glad I'm adding PC gaming back to my entertainment mix so I'm not at the mercy of these console manufacturers any more.
Scorpio still kneecapped by that weak CPU as well.
anothertech
Member
12TF HBM2 Full BC 2019 $499
If you're talking about pro2, I'm betting it doesn't happen until PS5. Holiday 2019 ps5, Holiday 2022 5pro
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I wish, but it seems Sony is deathly afraid of pricing too high again. They wouldn't even go over $399 for the Pro refresh so I doubt they would be willing to gamble on the main SKU.
draughn101
Member
I am confused about why people are against another half step. It seems like if the PS5 comes out and they require game to work on the PS5 and pro and it's backwards compatible, it's a half step. If it abandons BC and games only play on the 5, it's a real generation. Why would I want that? It seems like Microsoft's model is very consumer friendly.
I only own a PlayStation. Not a fanboy. Honestly curious what I'm missing.
I only own a PlayStation. Not a fanboy. Honestly curious what I'm missing.
The year sounds about right. 2019 would make it 3 years after Pro, when the Pro was 3 years after PS4. I doubt it will be a half step though. By 2019 there should be a significant cause for a bigger jump with 4K being in full swing. Then again I do ask myself how much more could you reasonably go? Generations should be much shorter now due to tech evolution. I wouldn't expect there to be a 7/8+ year generation again. I would also think the Xbox wont be far behind neither as Spencer has already admitted to have already started working on a successor. My guess would be circa 8TF's with some form of Ryzen and 16GBS of RAM in the PS5.
Fixed. 😂
10tflops, Zen 8 core, 16GB $399, 2019
anothertech
Member
Nah. 2013 $399, 2019 $499 not such a gamble really. Going 599$/699$ like PS3 was the gamble they lost. In 2029, $599 won't be such a gamble either.
Lol but nah.they won't wait that long
Zero, it's pure fantasy. A 2019 launch means games have been in deveopment and there are Dev kits out right now.
Edit: This part is wrong, my bad.
I actually agree with this. $499 isn't so out of the question anymore. I think the XBX will sell pretty good at that price due to the tech. Doesn't sound so out of the question for 2019 and PS5 neither. As tech evolves so does the price. Games are practically $100 now for full experiences.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I hope your right, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Xbox One X will be a good test run. I expect it to sell early then drop off pretty fast as the less hardcore opt for the cheaper One S.
Shin
Banned
I don't think it will be HBM2 either, 4Gb costs $80, 8Gb $160, HMB3 is supposed to be cheaper, but I don't think it will be that much cheaper to make it viable.
So I'm guessing with will be either Low-Cost HBM (~200GB/s vs ~256GB/s HBM2) or GDDR6 (~56 - 64Gb/s).
You think new gen dev kits come out 2.5 years before the system launches?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Because I don't want "next gen" games being designed with a Jaguar CPU in mind.
Shin
Banned
Who do you work for anyways Microsoft, Sony or are you a developer?
Why would they need to press a reset button if they support BC for PS5? Devs can continue to make PS4/Pro games, have them playable on PS5 for as long as they want, and move to PS5 exclusively to take advantage of the hardware whenever they want as well.
As late as 2013, Sony supported PS3 with first party titles, to the point where we had to wait years for the next wave of titles from first party devs on PS4.
PS3 to PS4 was around 7 years, in 2019 we'll be hitting 6, which is already the limit for consoles pre 7th gen.
They are not going to wait very long after PS4 hits its peak and starts dropping
I actually respectfully disagree. You could make a case for going too long and not being proactive enough. They don't have to shut down PS4 neither so it's not like sales will cease. Tech evolves too quick now. I also wouldn't go as far as saying games have to be made right now for it. Launch titles have never exactly been lights out. A lot of them have typically been ports. And for all we know they may in fact do have dev kits or at least already started getting them together. You don't have to have dev kits 2/3 years out neither.
Dont question matt. The fact of the matter is, the publishers give an approximation of where they want to go hardware wise, or the devs just guess and start building their game with PC components. and then when dev kits come out they more finely optimize for that target. That was the case with the games in the 8th gen, all the way up to 2015. Batman Arkham Knight was in development right after Arkham City, back in 2011 specifically like this
Shin
Banned
No...
Dev kits are sent out 6-12 months before a system launches apparently.
That would put potential leaks starting next year otherwise 2019 with a 2020 release.
I'm expecting 2020 for all sorts of reasons and people keep saying that we're early into this generation when we're closer to the next :/
That's for me to decide, it's a genuine question and he can choose to answer or not.
As I really don't know who he is.
PS3 wasn't selling at the same pace and there's no threat of a next generation Xbox releasing in 2019. I don't see the point at all. Whether it has BC or not, releasing a next generation console is not without risk and Sony knows that as much as anyone, hence my reset button analogy.
anothertech
Member
No. That will happen 2018 early 2019 like every normal launch. Games are already indevelopment on pc of course. No fantasy at all
StrongBlackVine
Banned
You don't need to know who he is. All you need to now is that is he is lot more knowledgeable about what is going behind the scenes than vast majority of us.
Good point. Stand corrected.
Final Verdict
Member
I can't see Sony doing this.
Next generation needs to have more than just 4k graphics, and I don't see a Ryzen + 10TF by 2019 for $399...maybe $499
I think 2020 is PS5 year and will feature a Ryzen + 12TF GPU + 16GB of RAM for $399-$499 range depending on how big they go with Ryzen.
I think they will also launch PSvr2 with this.
Next generation needs to have more than just 4k graphics, and I don't see a Ryzen + 10TF by 2019 for $399...maybe $499
I think 2020 is PS5 year and will feature a Ryzen + 12TF GPU + 16GB of RAM for $399-$499 range depending on how big they go with Ryzen.
I think they will also launch PSvr2 with this.
He's a guy in the know, isn't that enough?
Your right about that, but at the same time, i don't think we have to worry whenever it does come out.
Shin
Banned
Your name is Matt? He's an adult and can speak for himself or ignore the question altogether.
Fair enough and better than your previous response though same as above.
He's getting better at his predictions there's that also
draughn101
Member
So they basically hamstrung themselves with the Jaguar and would have to continue using a Jaguar processor to do what MS is doing.
You forgot no PS4 b/c.
The Mad Draklor
Member
That is way too optimistic. I think this is a more realistic prediction:
Zen 2/Navi based APU
10 TF
16GB GDDR6 RAM
$399 - $449
Late 2019 - Early 2020 (I think the Switch's launch will make Sony consider launching the PS5 outside of the holiday season)
dano1
A Sheep
Of course they will play PS5 games. They just won't look as good. All consoles from now on are going the route of PC.
7nm makes a lot of things possible. It just depends on when they can make a mature process node out of it. AMD right this second are rushing their work on miniaturizing Zen for the specific purpose of their console clients next cycle, that is without question.
Also...if its 4K your worried about, you won't have to worry. Devs will still have to make tradeoffs on whether to have 4K games or sacrifice resolution and other things for visuals like every other gen.
PS5 is not going to be like Pro or XB1 X, and MS will be forced to respond themselves by cutting XB1 out of the equation, and maybe even XB1X depending on how it does.
A. 2019 is too soon for 7nm+.
B. 16GB Of ram isn't enough for next gen. Subtract 4GB for the OS only leaves 12GB for games.
C. Early 2020 is pointless (might as well be 2019) considering what would be available/price point in holiday 2020.
D. The 360 launched at $399 back in 2005, considering inflation that's a $499 price point in 2020/2021 if you want decent performance.
E. If Xbox one X is successful at $499, that GUARANTEES a stronger PS5 @ $499 Vs weaker PS5 @ $399.
F. I can't remember who, but someone did the math, If the PS5 uses true EUV 7nm chips @ about the same size as the Xbox one X Apu and clocked higher would be a little over 19TF.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
No they won't.
People want next gen games on a next gen machine, not restricted by old tech. If you try and make your next gen game compatible with old tech, you are not fully utilizing the new tech, and pushing the game engine to its limits.
The consumer friendly model is that new machines are back compatible with older machines. PS5 to support the PS4 family of games, Xbox Two to support the Xbox One family of games, to ensure the library of past games is available across all the new machines, not a hard reset like previous gens. e.g. PS6 to be compatible with PS5 and PS4 games.
I don't believe Sony or Microsoft are expecting next gen games to run on old gen systems.
Head.spawn
Junior Member
Are you theoretically already working on a PS5 game right now?
ScaryShark
Banned
I would take this bet.
"Not looking as good" is not what a mandatory PS4 version of a PS5 game boils down to. CPU and RAM are the limiting factors in how a project takes shape. Developers will not want to be limited to 2013 tech in 2020 and beyond.
PS4 and Pro will play PS5 games? Doesn't sound like anything Sony has said
Its possible, we'll see
Apparition
Member
Maybe we should slow down a bit. It seems AMD and nVidia might have issues in the future with hitting higher TF numbers with the single GPU design. They are looking into multiple computing module solution to tackle the issues. We don't know how (or if) that would affect future designs of he APU.
They are both X86 so Zen (or whatever the new CPU is) won't have a hard time running Jaguar games.
The reason Pro and X stuck with Jaguar is because of Forward Compatibility (FC). They had to keep the capability within a reasonable range so that the OG console won't have a hard time playing the same game as their Mid-Gen counterparts.
They are both X86 so Zen (or whatever the new CPU is) won't have a hard time running Jaguar games.
The reason Pro and X stuck with Jaguar is because of Forward Compatibility (FC). They had to keep the capability within a reasonable range so that the OG console won't have a hard time playing the same game as their Mid-Gen counterparts.
Fess
Member
lol yeah that's what I'm thinking too right now, I know he's a dev and close to Sony (don't know how close though), his vague comments like the one you quoted and "don't worry about BC" makes me think PS5 is way closer than I initially thought.
And people wonder why I'm not jumping in on a Pro lol
MS will be in a lot of trouble if I'm reading the hints right...
Fess
Member
Aha Thanks for explaining. So no FC in PS5 unless they stick with some sort of Jaguar?
Where does that put MS which are assumed to stick with FC and BC going forward?