Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC

AAMARMO PS5 Predicted Specs.

*Low End means the cheapest and less risky and High End means the means the moderate and risky.

Low End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 5.80 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR5X 12 GB

Hard Disk
1TB HHD

Optical Drive
Yes

High End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 6.10 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR6 16 GB

Hard Disk
500 GB SSD

Optical Drive
None
 
My guess is:

8 core CPU - at around 2.2-7 Ghz
12-14 Tflop Gpu
18-20 GB of RAM
2 TB hdd

(Now I can imagine Sony will end up customizing ther gpu a bit more extensively so it would perform better in VR, as I hope, there will be a PSVR 2)
 
What's Sony's incentive to release a PS5 in 2 years? Why press the reset button that quickly in their current position?
As of now? None.

Some people follow gaming the same way others follow sports. All the clickbait content out there isn't helping either.
 
As of now? None.

Some people follow gaming the same way others follow sports. All the clickbait content out there isn't helping either.

Sigh..no idea why people keep posting this...by 2019 PS4 won't be selling like it is now, 6 years is a good time to go to the PS5, it really is not a stretch at all.
 
Yeah most likely, like they did with PS4 Pro to cater that market.
Which is why we're discussing the memory and the amount it would need to drive 8K.
They could always add more memory to a Pro version but that doesn't seem practical.


FTFY, don't have a PS4 :P , I have games for it but not the console itself I'm that weird lol
Well lucky you I guess, I'm still on the launch PS4 and bummed out that I want the Pro for some games but don't dare to buy it now since PS5 might arrive soon. :P You can jump in on Pro and have an awesome time with it, best possible version of the PS exclusives from day 1, possibly with a cheaper price too if Pro get a price cut.
 
My guess is:

8 core CPU - at around 2.2-7 Ghz
12-14 Tflop Gpu
18-20 GB of RAM
2 TB hdd

(Now I can imagine Sony will end up customizing ther gpu a bit more extensively so it would perform better in VR, as I hope, there will be a PSVR 2)

First gen Ryzen APU is already running at 3.0Ghz so I'd expect it to be higher since there will be Zen2 and Zen3 by the time PS5 hits.
http://cdn.wccftech.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/AMD-Raven-Ridge-Engineering-Sample_1.png and some more to get an idea - http://wccftech.com/amd-ryzen-4-core-8-thread-raven-ridge-benchmarks/
 
AAMARMO PS5 Predicted Specs.

*Low End means the cheapest and less risky and High End means the means the moderate and risky.

Low End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 5.80 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR5X 12 GB

Hard Disk
1TB HHD

Optical Drive
Yes

High End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 6.10 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR6 16 GB

Hard Disk
500 GB SSD

Optical Drive
None
Serious post? No one disputes PS5 using 7nm chips. That's at least Navi GPU, 6tflops is exactly the same as the Xbox one X. That would be a complete joke even if it did come out in 2019.
 
My guess is:

8 core CPU - at around 2.2-7 Ghz
12-14 Tflop Gpu
18-20 GB of RAM
2 TB hdd

(Now I can imagine Sony will end up customizing ther gpu a bit more extensively so it would perform better in VR, as I hope, there will be a PSVR 2)

This but 1 TB HDD.

HDD is easiest area for Sony to save money on. Putting in extra just cuts into Sony's profit margin, and also makes it harder to hit the 400 dollar price point.
 
Next gen does need 32 GB. That's a modest 4X leap from last gen.

Cerny has already stated you need a meaningful increase in RAM and bandwidth for a next gen upgrade.

16GB is a meaningful increase in RAM, especially if they are able to offload OS to other things. PS4 has 5GB of RAM dedicated to games. Something like 16(provided that none is being taken up by system resources)for PS5 is perfectly reasonable. But we should not be looking at RAM capacity, that is not the star of next gen. Bandwidth is the star, and for that we need next gen memory configurations like GDDR6(aka improved GDDR5x) or Low Cost HBM+
 
No way will they retire the PS4 in 2019. Sony is going to coast on the PS4 and Pro for as long as possible. If the Switch continues to thrive, it would not shock me at all if we saw a portable PS4 in 2019 too.

I feel like anyone who thought the Pro was a good idea is thinking this very thing... Sony doesn't give a shit about the Pro's longevity. They care about making money, and every single person who picked up a pro endorsed the idea that they can get away with shortening the generations by releasing stop gaps every 3-4 years instead of waiting over 5 years before releasing a new system.

I don't think the system will drop in 2019, but I absolutely think it will drop in 2020 with the PS5 pro dropping in 2023, and so on.
 
No way will they retire the PS4 in 2019. Sony is going to coast on the PS4 and Pro for as long as possible. If the Switch continues to thrive, it would not shock me at all if we saw a portable PS4 in 2019 too.

No Portable lol, Switch has sold what exactly, 3 or 4 million and new Nintendo hardware always starts out of the gate well due to its fans.

I doubt Sony are sweating.

The gamers who bought pro, like me, want high end consoles, Pro will not cut it past 2018 never mind 2019 due to jaguar, we want 60 FPS large screen gaming. I did not buy a pro and chuck away my Ps4 expecting it to last 4 years.

Sony should ignore the mobile / switch market, its different and not related. If Switch could play stuff like Destiny 2 well then Sony might sweat, but portables are still too weak this gen to compete for the same customer base..
 
I wonder if Sony will do the Sony thing of maybe being a little too future proof-y and add some 8k features

8k media streaming / blu ray
8k checkerboard for games and maybe native for basic indie games?
 
No Portable lol, Switch has sold what exactly, 3 or 4 million and new Nintendo hardware always starts out of the gate well due to its fans.

I doubt Sony are sweating.

The gamers who bought pro, like me, want high end consoles, Pro will not cut it past 2018 never mind 2019 due to jaguar, we want 60 FPS large screen gaming. I did not buy a pro and chuck away my Ps4 expecting it to last 4 years.
.

you are not getting 60fps standard even with a PS5
 
I wonder if Sony will do the Sony thing of maybe being a little too future proof-y and add some 8k features

8k media streaming / blu ray
8k checkerboard for games and maybe native for basic indie games?

I hope not, I cant even distinguish between 1800c and 4K on my TV. We need high frame rates, more AI, faster loading and lots of bandwidth IMO.

you are not getting 60fps standard even with a PS5

Nope, dont agree. How many 30 FPS games do you get on modern i5 / i7 that are not GPU or bandwidth limited ?

The answer is none. It will be the same for a Ryzen / 8 + TF GPU unless Sony cheap out on Bandwidth.

Maybe console devs will put 16 ms pauses in to slow things down for us console peasants.
 
16GB is a meaningful increase in RAM, especially if they are able to offload OS to other things. PS4 has 5GB of RAM dedicated to games. Something like 16(provided that none is being taken up by system resources)for PS5 is perfectly reasonable. But we should not be looking at RAM capacity, that is not the star of next gen. Bandwidth is the star, and for that we need next gen memory configurations like GDDR6(aka improved GDDR5x) or Low Cost HBM+

A 2X RAM bump would be by far the weakest increase ever.

These are some low expectations
 
Nope, dont agree. How many 30 FPS games do you get on modern i5 / i7 that are not GPU or bandwidth limited ?

You do realize........that the only reason i5's and i7's run games at 60fps or above on PC is because they were either last gen or current gen console games optimized to run on bottom tier console CPU's right?

PC users have gotten used to consoles having CPUs not anywhere close to the PC standards, thus enjoying higher framerates with the ability to brute force past those limitations the console CPU's have.

If the baseline for CPU power goes up significantly in the consoles with Zen, that puts PC standards for getting 60fps through ports up against the wall, as console devs are not going to just aim at what they can achieve in a closed box at 60fps, they are going to inevitably push what those CPU's can do at 30fps, and unless threadripper suddenly becomes the mainstream CPU in PC town, that will make PC ports that much less likely to hit 60fps easily.
 
16GB is a meaningful increase in RAM, especially if they are able to offload OS to other things. PS4 has 5GB of RAM dedicated to games. Something like 16(provided that none is being taken up by system resources)for PS5 is perfectly reasonable. But we should not be looking at RAM capacity, that is not the star of next gen. Bandwidth is the star, and for that we need next gen memory configurations like GDDR6(aka improved GDDR5x) or Low Cost HBM+
Yeah RAM capacity is no longer the big bottleneck, its the CPU
 
If we get a new PlayStation before 2020 it's going to be another PS4 because devs will still be making these same PS4 level games.
 
A 2X RAM bump would be by far the weakest increase ever.

These are some low expectations

It doesnt really matter what they were doing 5/10/15/20 years ago. What matters is what they need and what they can afford when the next console ships. If they can only afford 16GB then thats what they'll do. They're using 8 GB right now and i havent heard any devs complaining about lack of ram like they were later in the PS3/360 generation.
 
A 2X RAM bump would be by far the weakest increase ever.

These are some low expectations

Stop looking at previous console jumps as standards, your looking at it with a skewed viewpoint.

The ability for the jumps we got in the past in all component areas is slowing down significantly due to the limitations of silicon chips. Even 32 gigs would only be 4x what the PS4 has, far less than the 16x previous PS gens have had.
 
A half step for a brand new generation would suck but it'll probably be what happens so that they can hit the $400 price point.
 
8 core Zen CPU
12-TFflop GPU
16 GB GDDR6 + 4 GB DDR3 RAM dedicated for OS
1 TB HDD
BC
$399
Fall 2019

^^ And that's an optimistic guess!
 
So development on PS5 started last year, after PS4 Pro launch I think?
The whole discussion about RAM lead me to a DS article which lead me to LinkedIn.
PS4 Pro article: http://www.dualshockers.com/sony-ex...-8-gb-of-ram-talks-guidelines-for-developers/
Masayasu Ito LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/masayasu-ito-488b454b/

6d9f9863a5.png


PS4 development started in 2008 (according to Cerny), that correlates to what's on his profile.
He was re-assigned to Product Business & Software Development from 2014 - 2016 and now back to Hardware Engineering & Operation.
Aww yiss I'm onto something!
 
You do realize........that the only reason i5's and i7's run games at 60fps or above on PC is because they were either last gen or current gen console games optimized to run on bottom tier console CPU's right?

.

Last few gens GPU increase was the tech available, so thats what was available from console makers.

In 2018 we will have 300 % CPU increase with Ryzen that was not possible before.

Yes many like to harp on about devs will always go pretty graphics, but improvements depends on the cards your dealt and what is feasible and efficient.

I cant see any game being 30 FPS next gen as it will be an easier bullet point to tick. You have you opinion, lets book mark and come back in 3 years lol
 
10TF GPU is the minimum to differentiate itself from the X1X. Anything less and the difference in multi-platform games with the X1X would not be really tangible.
 
8 core Zen CPU
12-TFflop GPU
16 GB GDDR6 + 4 GB DDR3 RAM dedicated for OS
1 TB HDD
BC
$399
Fall 2019

^^ And that's an optimistic guess!

With you except I think it will be $ 450 to $ 499. Yes stuff is getting stronger but not cheaper.

10TF GPU is the minimum to differentiate itself from the X1X. Anything less and the difference in multi-platform games with the X1X would not be really tangible.

Nah, x1x has jaguar and most AAA games will be 30 FPS, even Ryzen with 8TF will run rings around pro and x1x
 
So development on PS5 started last year, after PS4 Pro launch I think?
The whole discussion about RAM lead me to a DS article which lead me to LinkedIn.
PS4 Pro article: http://www.dualshockers.com/sony-ex...-8-gb-of-ram-talks-guidelines-for-developers/
Masayasu Ito LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/masayasu-ito-488b454b/

6d9f9863a5.png


PS4 development started in 2008 (according to Cerny), that correlates to what's on his profile.
He was re-assigned to Product Business & Software Development from 2014 - 2016 and now back to Hardware Engineering & Operation.
Aww yiss I'm onto something!

What do you think you are onto? Sony will release a ps5?
 
Last few gens GPU increase was the tech available, so thats what was available from console makers.

In 2018 we will have 300 % CPU increase with Ryzen that was not possible before.

Yes many like to harp on about devs will always go pretty graphics, but improvements depends on the cards your dealt and what is feasible and efficient.

I cant see any game being 30 FPS next gen as it will be an easier bullet point to tick. You have you opinion, lets book mark and come back in 3 years lol

The CPU will still be less powerful than on desktop. It will be a cheap CPU in the end. Unless PC reaches ridiculously high framerates, consoles won't be 60 fps by default.
 
Well lucky you I guess, I'm still on the launch PS4 and bummed out that I want the Pro for some games but don't dare to buy it now since PS5 might arrive soon. :P You can jump in on Pro and have an awesome time with it, best possible version of the PS exclusives from day 1, possibly with a cheaper price too if Pro get a price cut.
you guys must have life expectancy of 100+ years...

What on earth is soon about PS5 coming in 2019? It's 6 years after PS4 launch. How long do you guys want to hold on to tech? It doesn't last forever, people upgrade their phone every year today for goodness sake, and those are $800+ purchases.
 
So based on Matt's comments I'd say something in the region of:
8 core/16 thread Ryzen at 3.2Ghz
12 tflop Navi GPU
24gb of RAM at ~700gb/s or 16gb with a 4-6gb slower RAM for the OS
 
10TF GPU is the minimum to differentiate itself from the X1X. Anything less and the difference in multi-platform games with the X1X would not be really tangible.
I don't understand the hyper obsession with numbers. On the PC side top end GPUs are finally hitting those numbers - and the visual results aren't exactly what I would call a generation worth of difference.

I sound like a broken record, but it isn't a pure numbers game. This whole 6 teraflops of power marketing has really just armed people with bullet points and spec lists.

Next generation needs the rendering capability to differentiate itself beyond mere resolution bumps and maxed out sliders.


The PlayStation brand could become diluted if Sony up and releases a console that barely differentiates itself from the prior generation. The more pressing matter is what the numbers allow a developers to do. The end product is the most important factor here and if Sony can't demonstrate a difference worth launching a totally new machine, it's worth stalling until those goals are cost effective and realistic to be a true PS5.
 
So based on Matt's comments I'd say something in the region of:
8 core/16 thread Ryzen at 3.2Ghz
12 tflop Navi GPU
24gb of RAM at ~700gb/s or 16gb with a 4-6gb slower RAM for the OS

I would be more than OK with this, memory bumps the price too much though.

What do you think you are onto? Sony will release a ps5?
I'm sure you can read, what you make of it is up to you to me that's a clear sign that PS5 development started in 2016.
 
So based on Matt's comments I'd say something in the region of:
8 core/16 thread Ryzen at 3.2Ghz
12 tflop Navi GPU
24gb of RAM at ~700gb/s or 16gb with a 4-6gb slower RAM for the OS
I would wager it isn't so cut and dry.


For example, Navi is rumored to be utilizing a process called infinity fabric which looks to be able to leverage multiple GPU clusters. This could be a God send for when initial silicon wafers are in volatile immature states.


Secondly, Nvidia has actually managed to put full fat GTX 1080s inside of ULTRABOOKS. ( https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/30/nvidia-max-q-gaming-laptops-are-ultrabooks-with-gtx1080-power/ ) . This brings hope that a new console could be less restricted by the current size to thermal envelope loop.




The exciting part is we've had some pretty amazing improvements in terms of cooling and GPU architectures finding homes inside small spaces. Sony's engineers are excellent about utilizing every nook and cranny inside a box, so I imagine these advancements are being investigated if not improved upon.
 
I don't understand the hyper obsession with numbers. On the PC side top end GPUs are finally hitting those numbers - and the visual results aren't exactly what I would call a generation worth of difference.

We go through this every generation...and the answer is always the same...what developers are doing with higher end PC components outside of the baseline consoles does not come close to their full potential, because those higher tier components are not the baseline. PS4's components and beyond were possible in PC's in 2011, but we were not seeing any games taking advantage of that outside of Pro and XB1X refinements in PC titles. That's because the 7th gen baseline took full priority. Its the same with the 8th gen baseline.

Once that is raised, then we will start to see what they can do.

The Xbox 1 X GPU would already provide a significant jump in rendering fidelity if MS had not focused on its main purpose being pushing 4 times the resolution of 1080p and the same even goes for Pro to a lesser extent.

The jump in resolution from 1080p to 4K is completely different from the jump from 720p to 1080p in the 8th generation, its both far higher numbers and far more stress on the GPU, and according to a lot of devs, not worth it.
 
I would wager it isn't so cut and dry.


For example, Navi is rumored to be utilizing a process called infinity fabric which looks to be able to leverage multiple GPU clusters. This could be a God send for when initial silicon wafers are in volatile immature states.


Secondly, Nvidia has actually managed to put full fat GTX 1080s inside of ULTRABOOKS. ( https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/30/nvidia-max-q-gaming-laptops-are-ultrabooks-with-gtx1080-power/ ) . This brings hope that a new console could be less restricted by the current size to thermal envelope loop.




The exciting part is we've had some pretty amazing improvements in terms of cooling and GPU architectures finding homes inside small spaces. Sony's engineers are excellent about utilizing every nook and cranny inside a box, so I imagine these advancements are being investigated if not improved upon.

Nvidia is also researching multiple core gpu's and they're having good results.
http://research.nvidia.com/publication/2017-06_MCM-GPU%3A-Multi-Chip-Module-GPUs

As Moore's law slows down, and the number of transistors per die no longer grows at historical rates, the performance curve of single monolithic GPUs will ultimately plateau. However, the need for higher performing GPUs continues to exist in many domains. To address this need, in this paper we demonstrate that package-level integration of multiple GPU modules to build larger logical GPUs can enable continuous performance scaling beyond Moore's law.

Our evaluation shows that the optimized MCM-GPU achieves 22.8% speedup and 5x inter-GPM bandwidth reduction when compared to the basic MCM-GPU architecture. Most importantly, the optimized MCM-GPU design is 45.5% faster than the largest implementable monolithic GPU, and performs within 10% of a hypothetical (and unbuildable) monolithic GPU.

On the other hand, whether it will be necessary to implement such design is unlikely as the possible performance target for the gpu is still within what's achievable with a single die gpu.

(IMO the time of cluster-gpu's will come after maxing out 7nm+)
 
His analysis is usually an overly safe bet mixed in with clear misunderstandings of tech. For example, no wayvgames are going to render natively 240 fps. But ps5 being 3 to 4x ps4 pro, most likely. Backwards compatible with x86 hardware likely. He can say he's mostly right in 3 years.
 
So based on Matt's comments I'd say something in the region of:
8 core/16 thread Ryzen at 3.2Ghz
12 tflop Navi GPU
24gb of RAM at ~700gb/s or 16gb with a 4-6gb slower RAM for the OS

That's about exactly what my expectations are. I didn't think someone would put a 384-bit bus in a console, but then MS did. GDDR6 on a 384-bit bus would provide that amount of RAM and BW. This should be a significant jump over the base PS4.

But I'll say this, I wish Sony would get a design from Nvidia, even if it means dropping hardware BC, as to date NVIDIA's GPU are much more power efficient. Maybe that will change with the Navi architecture for AMD, but the preliminary Vega reviews (or Polaris ones) don't inspire a lot of confidence in AMD.
 
AAMARMO PS5 Predicted Specs.

*Low End means the cheapest and less risky and High End means the means the moderate and risky.

Low End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 5.80 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR5X 12 GB

Hard Disk
1TB HHD

Optical Drive
Yes

High End:
Main Processor
CPU: AMD "Ryzen" 8 Cores
GPU: 6.10 TFLOPS AMD Polaris Based Graphics Engine

Memory
GDDR6 16 GB

Hard Disk
500 GB SSD

Optical Drive
None

I think your RAM is a tad low and the GPU is way low. PS5 would need to target around a 1080 ti to even have a reason to replace the pro. Low cost GPU performance should be around that in 2 years.
 
People probably need to stop looking for giant multipliers between gens.
Well... Yeah. Consoles are following a pretty predictable trajectory nowadays - the days of manufacturer -subsidised power houses using massively custom chip tech are behind us. If a console comes out 3 years after a previous one, it'll show 3 years worth of improvements based on the changes in the AMD roadmap in that time. No more cell chips and whatever to disrupt things.
 
The CPU will still be less powerful than on desktop. It will be a cheap CPU in the end. Unless PC reaches ridiculously high framerates, consoles won't be 60 fps by default.

Sure it won't be a top end desktop CPU but with these newer CPU's becoming more efficient and faster, by late 2019 / 2020 we should easily have something that will blow the Jaguar away.

Consoles have had 3.2GHz CPU's before (PS3 / 360) and with more efficient, smaller manufacturing process (7nm) becoming available soon, it should hopefully allow for decent speeds at lower heat, which will be ideal for next gen consoles.

Both MS and Sony are trying to be more like PC now, with the architecture similar to PC and even the mid gen refresh (Pro and X) designed to offer people something closer to a PC experience. The graphics are getting really good now anyway, so the next obvious step would be aim for 60fps with a decent CPU.

Even developers are wanting more CPU power (Bungie with Destiny 2 for example) so it would be great if MS and Sony actually listen to what people want and finally break consoles out of being stuck with 30fps games. That would really feel next gen then.
 
But I'll say this, I wish Sony would get a design from Nvidia, even if it means dropping hardware BC, as to date NVIDIA's GPU are much more power efficient. Maybe that will change with the Navi architecture for AMD, but the preliminary Vega reviews (or Polaris ones) don't inspire a lot of confidence in AMD.

They have been working with AMD for years
 
It is utterly baffling to me that people believe a new system is coming out in 2 years and that it will be a half step. How would they even market a weak PS5? Even though it is fake 4K, the difference in resolution would be indistinguishable. Without dramatic enhancements in effects and geometry in games people will not see the leap next gen, Sony and Microsoft has to wait for the technology to improve more. Thete arent many if any major effects being tested in high settings PC games which are game changers visually.
 
Fall 2019
399$ (499$ specs)
10 (12) GFLOPS Vega
2.5 (3) GHz Ryzen CPU
12 GDDR5 (16 GDDR5 / 12 GDDR6) RAM
1 (2) TB SSHD

Fall 2020
399$ (499$ specs)
12 (14) GFLOPS Navi
3 (3.5) GHz Ryzen CPU
12 (16) GDDR6 RAM
2 TB SSHD

-both will feature native PS4 backward compatibility and "beast mode"
-both will aim for native 4K/60fps

Are these reasonable enough?
 
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