Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC

jdstorm said:
The Last of Us part 2 and Succer Punch's next project would be ready. Thrown in Kingdom Hearts 3, Shadow of the Collosus remastered alongside the best versions of this generations best games (COD, FIFA, Assasins Creed ect) and thats a pretty compelling first year for enthusiest consumers.

Especially if the Dualshock 5 is actually good.

Edit: Anthem is also likely to be released then and after seeing bungie struggle to support next gen platforms might be inclined to just support next gen consoles.
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I think they should try to get TLOU2 out for PS4 since people has already bought a PS4 to play it. Same thing for other announced and unreleased games that might be out in 2019, like Shenmue 3 and FF7 Remake. Otherwise they're just going to piss people off and the negative word of mouth will hurt the sales.
Unless they go for full forward and backward compatibility, then they can do whatever they want. That would probably be the best approach if the gens gets chopped up into smaller bumps. You jump in whenever you want at whatever quality you can afford.
 
PS4 Pro just released and everyone's already ready for the next gen to start. . I have a feeling that's going to be a 3 year countdown for holiday 2020 with a 2021 XBOX right around the corner.
 
Tyraniboah said:
I'm not sure I've seen a recent successful console launch at $499. Xbox One is still trying to recover and the PS3 spent way too long coming back.
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PS3's problem was the exotic architecture causing 3rd parties to perform worse than X360. X1 spent the extra $100+ on kinect functionality that core gamers didn't want.

We haven't had a proper scenario where a vendor just used the premium for accessible horsepower.
 
Matt said:
$499 is certainly possible. There is going to be a more gradual changeover in gens next time around, and not exploding out of the gates will be less of a concern.

Nothing is fixed yet though.
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If Sony feels they'll get a one year head start towards MS, this might contribute to $499. As does betting on a more expensive hardware design which promises to be a better base for hardware refreshes, incl. a mid-gen upgrade and according economies of scale.

Nevertheless, I think they'll do whatever they can to get to $399.
 
Hermii said:
Has there ever been a perfectly balanced PlayStation?

PS4: CPU limited
PS3: memory starved and gpu limited
Ps2: ?
Ps1: ?
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PS2: bad GPU design compared to the Dreamcast, let alone the GCN/Xbox; innovative but unused by anyone else memory bandwidth/cache system so tougher on developers.

PS1: elegant and well balanced system, because 3D accelerators weren't quite far enough along to be included on a console (Ken Kutaragi never grokked GPUs).
 
I'm thinking Sony's plan for the PS5 is Q4 2019/Q1 2020 launch and $399 price. Unless the X1X does well out the gate, Sony aren't going to $499.

I do think the PS5 will cost $450-500 to build.
 
AmyS said:
Pachter doesn't know WTF he's talking about. He even admits he doesn't know anything about tech and to him the only thing that differentiates graphics are HD and 4K.

So coming from him, 'half step' means absolutely nothing, and actually, means less than nothing, since he knows jack shit about PS5, when it's coming and what it will be able to do.
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I want to be paid tons of money to speculate. I can do it all day.
 
Matt said:
$499 is certainly possible. There is going to be a more gradual changeover in gens next time around, and not exploding out of the gates will be less of a concern.

Nothing is fixed yet though.
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If they are going with 16Gb* then they might as well got with HBM3 (4stack/4Gb* p.s.) or LCHBM instead of GDDR6.
At least they wouldn't have bandwidth issues and allow for a smaller design since the chips wouldn't be taking as much space as GDDR6.
Less heath as well HBM3 is rated at 1.2v I believe.
 
Okay so what if the PS5's CPU is a completely unique AMD design consisting of a single Ryzen core @ 3.2GHz, and a large cluster (or cell) of Jaguars clocked at the same speed, creating some kind of... broadband engine.

/s
 
Shin said:
If they are going with 16Gb* then they might as well got with HBM3 (4stack/4Gb* p.s.) or LCHBM instead of GDDR6.
At least they wouldn't have bandwidth issues and allow for a smaller design since the chips wouldn't be taking as much space as GDDR6.
Less heath as well HBM3 is rated at 1.2v I believe.
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You do realize LCHBM has lesser performance than the regular HBM?

And imo, any stacked-memory technology is out of the question in any incoming console, due to the cost structure of the whole technology. AMD is struggling mightly to get their HBM GPU on cost and supply... and this is for their highest end part... We're not talking about mainstream GPU (200-300$).
 
Jaguar Victory said:
PS4 Pro just released and everyone's already ready for the next gen to start. . I have a feeling that's going to be a 3 year countdown for holiday 2020 with a 2021 XBOX right around the corner.
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Because they are seeing what these machines, much much more powerful machines than their original counterparts, are bringing. Resolution bump and some improved effects, but nothing transformative (no exclusive software and very small install base = few token upgrades here and there and performance left unexploited beyond low hanging fruit).

People do start feeling the urge of a nice BC enabled jump, something that encourages people to flex the new HW properly and new HW which enables much needed changes (much faster CPU as one of them).
 
autoduelist said:
This is why I think many here are being overly optimistic about release dates. People are letting their own opinions of when they -want- a new console sway their opinion on when we'll get a new gen. But of course gaming enthusiasts on a forum are likely to be early adopters and want a new gen sooner - Sony needs to carefully weigh the full spectrum of buyers, most of whom buy in mid-late into a gen.

I've lived through a video game crash when the market got oversaturated and overextended, and I'd like to avoid seeing that happen again. I think $50 a year is about what people want to spend for their console [be it full price early on, or after a price drop]. I'm admittedly pulling that number out of my ass, but I know there -is- a number that is the sweet spot and it can't be too much higher based on what we do know of console prices points and sales history. More importantly, I'm sure Sony has researched that number to the best of their ability.

An 8 year cycle is about as close as I think they can cut it, though I realize that's an unpopular opinion around here where some seem to want 3-5 year gens. Maybe they think they can shave it down to 7 years [I find 6 extremely unlikely] but if gens get to close together, people will opt out. It's a luxury hobby, sure, but people still have budgets and families.
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PS3 was on the market 7 years before PS4 arrived, PS1 and PS2 were on the market for 6 years before their successors arrived.

2019 will be PS4's 6th year.
 
I think people are maybe reading too much into the PS5 moniker.

From what I can tell... the "PS4 family" will kindof consist of:
- the PS4 (1080p/PSVR1)
- PS4pro (4k@30/PSVR1)
- PS5 (4k@60/PSVR2)?
So, you will be able to run the same TLOU2 binary on all of those consoles.

Hence the only significant difference with the PS4pro launch is that developers will be able to exclusively target the PS5 (although I suspect most won't until the population increases beyond the PS4, or they're doing something that absolutely needs the new hardware)?
 
dumbo said:
I think people are maybe reading too much into the PS5 moniker.

From what I can tell... the "PS4 family" will kindof consist of:
- the PS4 (1080p/PSVR1)
- PS4pro (4k@30/PSVR1)
- PS5 (4k@60/PSVR2)?
So, you will be able to run the same TLOU2 binary on all of those consoles.

Hence the only significant difference with the PS4pro launch is that developers will be able to exclusively target the PS5 (although I suspect most won't until the population increases beyond the PS4, or they're doing something that absolutely needs the new hardware)?
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Kind of wondering, where did PSVR2 come about from? I miss some news or insider rumor?
 
Darklor01 said:
Kind of wondering, where did PSVR2 come about from? I miss some news or insider rumor?
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No rumour/news, but I think everyone is expecting the headset manufacturers to launch gen2 in the next few years, so logically that would be 'around the time' of the PS5.

It would be logical to use the PS5 spec as the baseline processing power for that hardware. It may even be possible to integrate some bits of a wireless transmitter into the console? (or at least add a second HDMI port)
 
He is saying that it will be a half step from Ps4 Pro (which implies a full step from Ps4), to me it seems a very reasonable prediction, don't understand why people are dismissing him.

Thead title is misleading.
 
PS5 Q4 2019, $399. PS5Pro Q4 2022, $499. Titles already announced, like TLoU:P2 and Death Stranding will be PS4 titles, but will get PS5 updated versions.

We'll get a lot more cross-gen content than usual, since it will be easy (or, rather, easier than usual) and financially sound to release games on both platforms for the first few years (two, probably).
 
Miniature Kaiju said:
PS5 Q4 2019, $399. PS5Pro Q4 2022, $499. Titles already announced, like TLoU:P2 and Death Stranding will be PS4 titles, but will get PS5 updated versions.

We'll get a lot more cross-gen content than usual, since it will be easy (or, rather, easier than usual) and financially sound to release games on both platforms for the first few years (two, probably).
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If Sony wants to utilize 1st party games as strong churn drivers for their new platform, most of those games will probably be PS5 exclusive (let 3rd parties cover the multi-gen approach). Which might explain why they went with "first on PlayStation" (FF VII-R) instead of "first on PS4".
 
dumbo said:
No rumour/news, but I think everyone is expecting the headset manufacturers to launch gen2 in the next few years, so logically that would be 'around the time' of the PS5.

It would be logical to use the PS5 spec as the baseline processing power for that hardware. It may even be possible to integrate some bits of a wireless transmitter into the console? (or at least add a second HDMI port)
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While the system would definitely make use of PSVR 2.0, I'm not sure if 1.0 was profitable enough for a second one. That is a few years out, and they have time to get additional sales, and analysis, so anything can happen.

Without knowing any actual numbers, I'm not sure how much money Sony will continue to put out there for gaming related hardware outside of the core PS5 console. We shall see though.
 
Matt said:
$499 is certainly possible. There is going to be a more gradual changeover in gens next time around, and not exploding out of the gates will be less of a concern.

Nothing is fixed yet though.
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$499 seems like a better goal than compromising in areas to fit $399.
 
Matt said:
$499 is certainly possible. There is going to be a more gradual changeover in gens next time around, and not exploding out of the gates will be less of a concern.

Nothing is fixed yet though.
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Interesting

Have you heard anything of Microsoft's plan for next gen?

They clearly rushed XB1 out the door to be inline with the PS4 launch this gen, but I get the impression next gen they'll only go when good and ready regardless of the potential PS5 launch window
 
RaijinFY said:
You do realize LCHBM has lesser performance than the regular HBM?

And imo, any stacked-memory technology is out of the question in any incoming console, due to the cost structure of the whole technology. AMD is struggling mightly to get their HBM GPU on cost and supply... and this is for their highest end part... We're not talking about mainstream GPU (200-300$).
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That is the whole point of LCHBM less complexity and cheaper to make, not sure what you mean by lesser performance than HBM, it's close to HBM2 in spec.
Also Samsung is pushing those 2 memory types, which is (I think) the largest RAM manufacturer, Hynix going for HBM3 also.
These are not small players in that particular branch, we should hear more next month at Hot Chips 29 to get a better idea.
 
Bitch Pudding said:
Oh, it is. All you need is a track record of successful projects for well-known corporations, and something like an MBA doesn't hurt, either.

It is however my understanding that the video games industry is - more or less - just a hobby for Pachter, not necessarily his everyday consulting industry.
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Indeed, the inevitable appeal to authority. When it comes to predictions, it may be smarter to put your faith in someone's success in an unrelated industry than in the magic powers of a gypsy fortune teller, but only marginally so, especially when both use the same shotgun approach and their predictive track records are there for all to see.
 
pitchfork said:
Interesting

Have you heard anything of Microsoft's plan for next gen?

They clearly rushed XB1 out the door to be inline with the PS4 launch this gen, but I get the impression next gen they'll only go when good and ready regardless of the potential PS5 launch window
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If - if - PS5 is 2019, I don't think they'll launch a new XBOX just 2 years after introducing their monster. Sony having a one year head start in this scenario is the most likely one.

I think they'll follow one - maybe even two - years later to make sure they get clear tech leadership.
 
Bitch Pudding said:
If - if - PS5 is 2019, I don't think they'll launch a new XBOX just 2 years after introducing their monster. Sony having a one year head start in this scenario is the most likely one.

I think they'll follow one - maybe even two - years later to make sure they get clear tech leadership.
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It might remain like that for a while, I'm hoping PS goes for a strong(er) console.
While it's great for Xbox fans that they might have the stronger console I'd like to see something from PS as well, since it's what I prefer to play on mainly.
 
I wonder if they'll go with Seagate this time for HDD or SSHD rather (FireCuda 2TB) and optimize the system around it.
HGST doesn't seem to have a 2TB 2'5 drive, 1.8TB max (both PS4/Pro uses HGST HDD's), would make sense at least.
Western Digital's 2TB is more expensive than the Seagate, plus it's not a SSHD and Toshiba's only go up to 1TB (SSHD), seems Seagate would win the best price/performance.
 
Shin said:
I wonder if they'll go with Seagate this time for HDD or SSHD rather (FireCuda 2TB) and optimize the system around it.
HGST doesn't seem to have a 2TB 2'5 drive, 1.8TB max (both PS4/Pro uses HGST HDD's), would make sense at least.
Western Digital's 2TB is more expensive than the Seagate, plus it's not a SSHD and Toshiba's only go up to 1TB (SSHD), seems Seagate would win the best price/performance.
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How do you optimize around an HDD?!
 
c0de said:
How do you optimize around an HDD?!
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tenor.gif
 
c0de said:
How do you optimize around an HDD?!
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I meant proper support for Sata III 6GB/s and make full use of it, bad choice of words.
On that note did Pro ship with Sata II 3GB/s or Sata III 6GB/s because it was shipped with a Sata II drive.
 
Shin said:
I meant proper support for Sata III 6GB/s and make full use of it, bad choice of words.
On that note did Pro ship with Sata II 3GB/s or Sata III 6GB/s because it was shipped with a Sata II drive.
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For a mechanical drive, the difference between sata 2 and 3 is minimal at best. The decrease in load times on pro are most likely due to the CPU being faster at decoding/decompressing the data instead of a faster sata link.
 
I think it will really depend on XOX success. If it is a breakout success and ps4 is lagging behind they might consider a ps4 pro+ etc (I don't think a scenario like that is possible). But I am hopeful PS5 is a proper new console with exclusive games built from the ground up.
 
Technically PS5 could end up the only traditional next gen console but that's only if Sony actually make a clean break into next generation. I'm not really sure if they will because if things workout for MS Xbox will basically be a pre-made multimedia gaming computer so when Xbox One Z or whatever they call it comes out it wouldn't really matter if it only sell 1 million units because the games for it is going to be made either way because they are UWP games that will run on consoles & Windows PCs & that would leave PS5 on it's own when it come to trying to start a new generation & it would be really hard to get devs to make a PS5 exclusive in the 1st year when they can just make a game that run on everything from the Xbox One/PS4 on up. If MS is successful with the generation-less console model when PS5 come out it will look like Sony is asking devs to make games twice while MS is letting them make the game once.

This is why I think PS5 will only be PS5 by name if it comes out in the next few years putting a pretty coat of paint over PS4 games & if they are planing to make a clean break into next generation they will be better off waiting as long as they can until people are bored with the PS4/Xbox One games & make a radical change with the PS5 that separate it from the PS4 , Xbox One & PC.
 
onQ123 said:
Technically PS5 could end up the only traditional next gen console but that's only if Sony actually make a clean break into next generation. I'm not really sure if they will because if things workout for MS Xbox will basically be a pre-made multimedia gaming computer so when Xbox One Z or whatever they call it comes out it wouldn't really matter if it only sell 1 million units because the games for it is going to be made either way because they are UWP games that will run on consoles & Windows PCs & that would leave PS5 on it's own when it come to trying to start a new generation & it would be really hard to get devs to make a PS5 exclusive in the 1st year when they can just make a game that run on everything from the Xbox One/PS4 on up. If MS is successful with the generation-less console model when PS5 come out it will look like Sony is asking devs to make games twice while MS is letting them make the game once.

This is why I think PS5 will only be PS5 by name if it comes out in the next few years putting a pretty coat of paint over PS4 games & if they are planing to make a clean break into next generation they will be better off waiting as long as they can until people are bored with the PS4/Xbox One games & make a radical change with the PS5 that separate it from the PS4 , Xbox One & PC.
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This is how I see it playing out. Especially because of the bolded.
 
Head.spawn said:
$499 seems like a better goal than compromising in areas to fit $399.
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499 isn't going to happen due to europe

sony makes bank there and with tepid growth in europe over the past 8 years or so has left the dollar quite strong in comparison

just look at all the straight fucking vehemence over the switch's price for example, when it was basically the same exact price as a US system with VAT on top of it

This is partially why I think MS was okay with a 499 scorpio: US is all that really matters for them at the moment.
 
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