North Korea launches missile that passes over Japan

hamauzu kaito said:
To me the statement is a reminder of "duty". It says nothing about public perception but rather speaks to the governments desire to exercise sway over its populace, look at the language after 3/11.
Click to expand...

One has to admire the nuances in CJK languages. Not sure if I could master it some day though :(
 
Occam said:
But you are the one who assumes Kim to be rational. What purpose would destroying South Korea (possibly using nuclear weapons) serve in case of an international attack on North Korea?
On the other hand, how do you know Kim won't escalate his threats further and further while his country's economy collapses (=his own end draws nearer) and as a final act of desperation attempt to annex South Korea after he has created a large amount of nuclear weapons? And why not, no one opposed him before when his arsenal was small, so why would they do so then?
Click to expand...

Their survival depends on the credibility of their threat to annihilate Seoul if attacked.
A substantial amount of dead man's switches, in the form of an indocrinated military, has been accumulated.

Attacking them without extreme care and a damn good reason isn't a good idea.
 
Woo-Fu said:
It isn't my fault you're unable to comprehend what I was saying.

Is just a bunch of dick-waving until NK attempts to hit a real target. Unless the dick starts getting waved in the direction of China or the CIS I don't see today being any different from yesterday with regards to threat level.

You're reacting exactly the way NK wants you to react.
Click to expand...

This. All of this. If anyone actually believe's that Un is irrational or is a "loose cannon" then you haven't been following this event long enough to fully comprehend just how calculated NK is. This is calculated escalation, and you're going to see more of it, as there is still room for the bar to be raised. They know that the US will not retaliate for this, as the cost would be in the millions if not tens of millions of lives.

The only wild card is Trump. We cannot be sure that for one reason or another he wouldn't pull the trigger and order a pre-emptive military strike, which again would result in a terrible conventional war. Also, SK does not have an emergency plan to absorb the tens of millions of refugees who's cultural development took a much different path than SK after the war. Extreme tension and strain would be placed on SK. Not to mention the effect it would have on regional and world economies. China's role in the aftermath is anyone's guess.

This would be the response, should any nation retaliate against what is clearly calculated sabre-rattling.
 
There is no good outcome really. You could evacuate places within range of artillery but that's kinda showing your hand but if they want to deal with them once and for all, possible but still big military casualties and NK casualties. The other is hoping there is an uprising or leadership cleanse that brings things to an end. I do wonder if the people are brain washed or fear keeps them in line but they know the government is horrible and needs to be dealt with.
 
Occam said:
Why does their survival depend on that?
Click to expand...
...
In an interview with The American Prospect published on Wednesday, Bannon, who was fired from the administration on Friday, said of North Korea’s nuclear threats: “There is no military solution, forget it.

“Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that 10 million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.”
Click to expand...
 
zoukka said:
Fuck I'm flying to Tokyo in a couple of weeks...
Click to expand...

They won't attack Japan. They're annoying, antagonistic, and oppressive to their own people, but they're not suicidal. An attack on Japan would mean that Japan, the US, Australia, and South Korea (among others) would be at war. That's not something that NK will start.
 
Ratros said:
Japanese people seem to be cool with the launch.

I am not too confident with my Japanese skills. Let me know if there is a mistake in the translation.

2017082913502415926sv0.jpg
Click to expand...

That's what it says pretty much, yes.
 
Maiden Voyage said:
FYI - I tried engaging in honest discussion with this poster yesterday. They are a troll.
Click to expand...

😘

Anyway, people are free to disagree with my assessment of the regime.

I still find North Korea acting irrational,ensuring their demise, especially given that Trump is president, and straining the relationship with China. They do not have the same level of bargaining power that the USSR had during the Cold War.

Edit:

Irrational in the sense that in order to ensure their survival, they are doing everything possible that is guaranteeing their destruction.
 
George Washington said:
I still find North Korea acting irrational,ensuring their demise, especially given that Trump is president, and straining the relationship with China. They do not have the same level of bargaining power that the USSR had during the Cold War.
Click to expand...

I agree. Especially with how differ Kim Jong Un is compared to his father. He's a bit more unpredictable and I would not be surprised if he continues to ratchet up tensions. Trump isn't exactly helping either.
 
George Washington said:
😘

Anyway, people are free to disagree with my assessment of the regime.

I still find North Korea acting irrational,ensuring their demise, especially given that Trump is president, and straining the relationship with China. They do not have the same level of bargaining power that the USSR had during the Cold War.
Click to expand...
I find this also extremely unlikely. Fact of the matter unless you think trump or anyone else is going to risk all out nuclear war or at minimum Seouls destruction there's jack shit anyone is going to do beyond sanctions. Which is why they'll continue these tests. The more they do the more seriously their threat level will be taken and no one not even trump is going to invade them.
 
The distance that the missile flew is rather choose to the distance from NK to Guam as far as I can tell, no? Maybe that was the point they were trying to make?
 
North Korea has not been attacked in decades because the cost of starting a war with them would be so high in terms of lives lost in SK.
In the last 5 years the cost of waging war against NK has grown much steeper now that they've improved their missile program and can credibly hit Japan, Guam, etc...

The risk of not striking has also increased as they'll have ICBMs that can be nuclear capable in a few years. Whether it's worthwhile to strike before that point boils down to whether you believe that NK is rational or suicidal.

I suspect that if the experts believed that NK was suicidal there would have been a strike years ago.
 
George Washington said:
I understand the thought process but I don't agree with it. Mainly because they are straining their relationship with China. China is the only nation ensuring their survival.
Click to expand...

China is a secondary consideration in a war with NK. What saves them today is their ability to kill millions of South Koreans before anyone could do anything about it. If their relationship with China completely breaks down that may offer additional options in dealing with them but it wouldn't change the fact that invasion would doom millions to death.
 
George Washington said:
��

Irrational in the sense that in order to ensure their survival, they are doing everything possible that is guaranteeing their destruction.
Click to expand...

Still parroting this nonsense I see.

The North Korean regime know exactly what they're doing. If the North Korean regime was irrational, they wouldn't be here. They would of taken actual irrational steps that would of destroyed them a long time ago. Keep in mind that North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world. They have virtually no friends nor partners, they have the mightiest powers the world has ever seen, fail to contain them. They even have the harshest sanctions that any country could possibly have against them. Yet, here they are, posing a major threat while standing firm. They now have achieved nuclear capabilities, which further strengthens their resolve whilst sustaining their position as a threat to the region and to the world at large.

An irrational actor wouldn't be in that position. Only stonecold rationality can calculate a measured response that yields maximum damage with the lowest amount of backlash. They have Seoul and Tokyo in their reach, and if push ever comes to shove, you can bet that they will die standing - taking millions of people with them and causing catastrophe .

Make no mistake about it. They know that they have the upper hand. There are no middle roads to take here, and North Korea is perfectly aware of that.
 
KHarvey16 said:
It's rational when survival is the goal, yes. Don't confuse rational with nice or moral or proper.
Click to expand...

We will see how rational it is when a rocket flys over Hawaii. They already are in position to keep the US away. We know they can wipe out millions in Seoul by the push of a button. Yet they still flirt on the precipice. Nothing rational about it.
 
SyenceLabb said:
Yes. If a missile lands anywhere close to Hawaii, action will be taken, for better or worse. You're giving North Korea too much credit. They're not playing 4d chess
Click to expand...

We absolutely will not condemn millions of innocent people to die if they shoot a missile over an island.

I can't really fathom how some don't understand the math here. No one is killed by a missile into some water. Millions die if we respond with an invasion. Not responding militarily is not some appeasement path that leads inevitably to a surprise nuclear suicide strike. It just doesn't.
 
KHarvey16 said:
We absolutely will not condemn millions of innocent people to die if they shoot a missile over an island.

I can't really fathom how some don't understand the math here. No one is killed by a missile into some water. Millions die if we respond with an invasion. Not responding militarily is not some appeasement path that leads inevitably to a surprise nuclear suicide strike. It just doesn't.
Click to expand...

I think you're in the minority here. I'm willing to bet the majority would bet the US would take some action militarily if rockets start landing near or over US territories. This isn't a new reality we can just accept. Saying, "Oh well, we need to give NK the benefit of the doubt, they would never actually land a missile in our country" isn't an option.
 
Occam said:
Yes, should have. Like so many other dictatorships. But never did.
Click to expand...

So you obviously do know the exact reasons North Korea might fear the possibility of invasion or why someone might want to invade them, which is what you said you were asking. It's almost like you didn't even have to ask.
 
Xando said:
Let's not pretend the US wouldn't have forced a regime change if NK didn't held Seoul hostage
Click to expand...

That's his whole point, I believe. Why would NK start flying missiles over Japan if they already hold South Korea hostage? All this does is weaken their position globally and strains their relationship with China.
 
SyenceLabb said:
I think you're in the minority here. I'm willing to bet the majority would bet the US would take some action militarily if rockets start landing near or over US territories. This isn't a new reality we can just accept. Saying, "Oh well, we need to give NK the benefit of the doubt, they would never actually land a missile in our country" isn't an option.
Click to expand...

It's an option if the cost is too great to respond militarily. It is and they know it is just like we know it is. Invading and having 10+ million civilians in South Korea die would be morally indefensible.
 
stupei said:
So you obviously do know the exact reasons North Korea might fear the possibility of invasion or why someone might want to invade them, which is what you said you were asking. It's almost like you didn't even have to ask.
Click to expand...

My point is that there wasn't any reason for North Korea to expect an invasion say, 15 years ago, before they developed nulcear weapons. The North Korean leadership is paranoid. Which is why they spend precious resources on building weapons and allow millions to starve to death instead of creating a functional economy. These aren't rational people.
 
jerry113 said:
I will start panicking when the South Koreans start panicking.
Click to expand...

Panicking won't do anything anyway. The problem here is that two major powers--China and US, have been totally inept at containing these idiots. Really, I think it's China's problem to solve. The issue is that we're allied with Japan and SK, who they continue to antagonize.
 
Occam said:
My point is that there wasn't any reason for North Korea to expect an invasion say, 15 years ago, before they developed nulcear weapons. The North Korean leadership is paranoid. Which is why they spend precious resources on building weapons and allow millions to starve to death instead of creating a functional economy. These aren't rational people.
Click to expand...
15 years ago = Iraq
 
KHarvey16 said:
It's an option if the cost is too great to respond militarily. It is and they know it is just like we know it is. Invading and having 10+ million civilians in South Korea die would be morally indefensible.
Click to expand...

Y'all are talking past each other.

One says, what happens when they do it?

You keep saying they won't. And round you go.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

George Foreman passes away at 76
43
2K
MrA replied
US Oil tanker and Portuguese cargo vessel collide in North Sea
2
79
4K
Wildebeest replied
South Korea in chaos as President orders martial law
News  2
61
5K
DeafTourette replied
Trades that were supposed to put teams over the top but didn't
20
912
StreetsofBeige replied
2025 Movies - North American Release Schedule
4
2K
dispensergoinup replied
Top Bottom