Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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bonk64 said:
I'm worried guys. So I was on this crazy workout thing where I worked out for 52 days in a row. Yesterday I broke that streak. Well because I was feeling extremely lethargic and my muscles ached so bad. I was just tired. I thought maybe doing all these random weird home workouts I maybe just overdid it I dont know. With everything going on I thought I'd just take a day off to rest and go hard again tomorrow. Which is still weird cause im super over the top when I decide to do something so taking a day off was unlike me. Well I woke up at 4am and have just been coughing nonstop for last 30 minutes. I can hear a sort of whistle in my chest. It feels like a dry cough idk. What the fuck? I hope im not sick. I quarantined day or two before they asked us to. But also I went to gym all the way up until. I also worked a job with hundreds of people on the daily. Ive stayed away from everyone. I was already stocked before hand so i haven't been to store. Man Idk I hope im just tripping. I'm a lil scared not so much for me but I seen some loved ones right before i self quarantined. I really hope im not sick. I'm hoping im just tired and this is just a coincidence. I don't wanna be the cause of anyone getting sick. I'm an extrovert and I live alone and I'm having a hard time being quarantined but ive done the right thing this whole time staying isolated. Blah blah blah. Hope im overthinking it.
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Don't be overly concerned just yet but do keep an eye on how your symptoms develop.

For sure just self isolate for now and see how it goes.
 
sinnergy said:
What I find weird, I haven't seen 1 story of recovery , no footage inside a hospital , no videos of parts of the country worst hit, something isn't right here in the Netherlands. We are so small yet nothing is shown.

Also nothing from the places worst hit.
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To be fair you only have 5k ish cases with a population of 17 million.
I reckon that's only around 30 cases per 100,000 people?

If 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic then a lot of those who have had it will not even have been registered among the 5k.

With the exponential growth the majority of your current 5k cases are probably a week or two away from being announced as recovered. Probably longer since they will want to be sure.

Plus those confirmed cases numbers do not signify the number of people who need to be hospitalized. It would be a lot less.
Only 435 of the cases are "serious or critical" so that's less than one person per hospital if spread across the 500+ hospitals in the Netherlands.

Maybe they just don't want the public to panic by showing the worst hit hospitals in the worst hit parts of the country?

It's the number of serious and critical cases that REALLY matters here and for Netherlands that seems to be 435 just now?
 
Saruhashi said:
To be fair you only have 5k ish cases with a population of 17 million.
I reckon that's only around 30 cases per 100,000 people?

If 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic then a lot of those who have had it will not even have been registered among the 5k.

With the exponential growth the majority of your current 5k cases are probably a week or two away from being announced as recovered. Probably longer since they will want to be sure.

Plus those confirmed cases numbers do not signify the number of people who need to be hospitalized. It would be a lot less.
Only 435 of the cases are "serious or critical" so that's less than one person per hospital if spread across the 500+ hospitals in the Netherlands.

Maybe they just don't want the public to panic by showing the worst hit hospitals in the worst hit parts of the country?

It's the number of serious and critical cases that REALLY matters here and for Netherlands that seems to be 435 just now?
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And they don't test and contact trace or cases are more likely between 60k and 100k. When Amsterdam gets hit, they'll start running. And no lock down , by then it's to late.

Also if you have no symptoms for 24 hours you are fit to work ..

Wtf. Even without testing if you suspect corona and spread it!
 
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sinnergy said:
What I find weird, I haven't seen 1 story of recovery , no footage inside a hospital , no videos of parts of the country worst hit, something isn't right here in the Netherlands. We are so small yet nothing is shown.

Also nothing from the places worst hit.
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It's the same in Germany. The reason is that there is no obligation to report cured patients.
 
JordanN said:
Anyone find it odd China is now up to 88% recovered from the Virus?

0IGpgtJ.png


For a country with more than a billion people, how do you literally stop transmissions of the virus?

Meanwhile, I still read projections that say the pandemic can be around for months.


KNlnGo4.png
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A complete big brother police state.

there was a video a few pages back. Go anywhere scan your phone, temp check, mask. Even food is sealed and signed off with the persons temp who prepared it for you.

But it is a bit odd how they stopped it from spreading outside the epicenter. Was there ever any cases in Beijing? And also most likely they are lying about their cases. BUUUUUUUUT they were would be people dying and flooding hospitals.
 
Day 8 of isolation at home. Everyone is ok. So far. Wife went to the supermarket. They are going insane about social distancing in France. I'm just ott about monitoring symptoms of everyone in the house.
Kids won't stop touching their face etc.
My four year old wants hugs all the time. I'm trying to social distance at home but it's impossible

my uni mate is on the mend. He says his breathing is less restricted now.
 
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sinnergy said:
And they don't test and contact trace or cases are more likely between 60k and 100k. When Amsterdam gets hit, they'll start running. And no lock down , by then it's to late.

Also if you have no symptoms for 24 hours you are fit to work ..

Wtf. Even without testing if you suspect corona and spread it!
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Sure but if they only have 435 serious and critical cases from 60k to 100k cases then this bodes well as social distancing etc comes into play.

Even if some people are being loose with the rules the majority of the people are taking care so the opportunities for the virus to spread are reduced.

Like I said it's those critical/serious numbers that are most important.

More testing will naturally lead to more confirmed cases but only the critical cases will put a strain on hospitals and ICUs etc.

So if there's a group of 100 people and 8 have bad symptoms and test positive and 2 are critical then it doesn't matter too much if we say "fuck it lets test everyone" and we find out that actually 90 people are infected but most of them are just mild or asymptomatic.

All people need to do is generally obey the government guidelines at this point.
Beyond that it's just a case of staying home and hoping for the best.
 
Saruhashi said:
Sure but if they only have 435 serious and critical cases from 60k to 100k cases then this bodes well as social distancing etc comes into play.

Even if some people are being loose with the rules the majority of the people are taking care so the opportunities for the virus to spread are reduced.

Like I said it's those critical/serious numbers that are most important.

More testing will naturally lead to more confirmed cases but only the critical cases will put a strain on hospitals and ICUs etc.

So if there's a group of 100 people and 8 have bad symptoms and test positive and 2 are critical then it doesn't matter too much if we say "fuck it lets test everyone" and we find out that actually 90 people are infected but most of them are just mild or asymptomatic.

All people need to do is generally obey the government guidelines at this point.
Beyond that it's just a case of staying home and hoping for the best.
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It seems here they like the beach , woods, shopping , that's what you get without lock down or other punishments. No it's indeed hoping for the best, Russian roulette.
 
jufonuk said:
Day 8 of isolation at home. Everyone is ok. So far. Wife went to the supermarket. They are going insane about social distancing in France. I'm just ott about monitoring symptoms of everyone in the house.
Kids won't stop touching their face etc.
My four year old wants hugs all the time. I'm trying to social distance at home but it's impossible
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Social distancing inside your own home is not a thing. You are just quarantined together... hug your kid unless you personally broke quarantine.
 
Hearing Lombardy will be around 320 deaths today (down from 361 yesterday). Guessing/Hoping deaths for all of Italy will be down in the 500's (from 651 yesterday).

IF so, this will be 2 days of a decline and maybe indicating a peak and fall, though deaths are not always linear.
 
Captain Zyrain said:




So, I know their number is high because hopefully they're doing a South Korea-type TEST EVERYONE scenario.. but at what point do they start running out of beds for the low % that need ICU/beds?

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New York City has what... 8 million people?

I can see why President Trump started parking hospital ships next to these megacities.

Ornlu said:
Well, DunDunDunpachi DunDunDunpachi and any other Michigan posters, I'll be making the best of the coming lockdown tomorrow; I wish you all the best. Stay safe, healthy, and find something fun to fill the time with.

:messenger_heart:
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Thank you brother. Been working from within lockdown since last Monday. Hope you fare the storm and catch up on some reading, exercise, gaming, etc.
 
jufonuk said:
Day 8 of isolation at home. Everyone is ok. So far. Wife went to the supermarket. They are going insane about social distancing in France. I'm just ott about monitoring symptoms of everyone in the house.
Kids won't stop touching their face etc.
My four year old wants hugs all the time. I'm trying to social distance at home but it's impossible

my uni mate is on the mend. He says his breathing is less restricted now.
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Please don't social distance from your four year old. If you live in the same house, there's next to no chance of not spreading it should one of you get it.
 
sinnergy said:
But the patients aren't posting on social no stories at all... also not from relatives, isn't that weird?
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Are you serious about this? Why would people post on social media? I don't understand. Even if 99.9% of people would post something, you will never be able to read it if no one sends you a direct link or you know the person personally. Privacy is relatively hip these days.
 
sinnergy said:
It seems here they like the beach , woods, shopping , that's what you get without lock down or other punishments. No it's indeed hoping for the best, Russian roulette.
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It's true but a lot more people are staying home meaning that the opportunities for the virus to spread are greatly reduced.

So if some guy goes to the beach and catches it he is less likely to infect others because nobody is around elsewhere.
Still he's a clown for going to a crowded location and people need to get their shit together but the potential impact is reducing.

What I expect to happen over most of Europe is that in the next 2 to 3 weeks we will see a massive reduction in the number of new cases needing intensive medical care and then beyond that we will see small localized outbreaks being locked down much more quickly.

Plus every day is a day closer to better treatments to help people recover.
 
Captain Zyrain said:
Safe!

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She was safe when they took the sample. She could have picked it up on the way out of the office for all anyone knows.

That's the silliness of 'test everyone'. Unless you are going to isolate people completely until the results are back, then pass them into a pre-quarantined population, it really doesn't mean much other than 'I didn't have it last Tuesday'
 
Captain Zyrain said:
Hearing Lombardy will be around 320 deaths today (down from 361 yesterday). Guessing/Hoping deaths for all of Italy will be down in the 500's (from 651 yesterday).

IF so, this will be 2 days of a decline and maybe indicating a peak and fall, though deaths are not always linear.
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Italy is coming up on 2 weeks since lockdown this week, I think?

So hopefully the number of new cases needing critical attention will be going down rapidly as of this week.

The number of deaths is likely to be a bit erratic since there's no telling how long it will take for someone to pass away.
I would guess the reduction in the number of deaths would be another week or two away.

If the stats are accurate then Italy currently has 3000 critical cases.
So what we SHOULD see in the next week is the rate of increase in that number declining. Hopefully.
That critical cases number is also going to go down as people unfortunately die from the disease.
 
Mihos said:
She was safe when they took the sample. She could have picked it up on the way out of the office for all anyone knows.

That's the silliness of 'test everyone'. Unless you are going to isolate people completely until the results are back, then pass them into a pre-quarantined population, it really doesn't mean much other than 'I didn't have it last Tuesday'
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100% this. The test only tells if you had it or not at the precise time of taking the test. Hell, you could have got it from the person administering the test and it wouldn't show up in the results (unlikely, I know).

Does anyone know if there has been any progress on that antibody test? That seems like the real game changer in terms of making this thing visible along with getting Coronavirus tests that can show results faster. Could be a two stage testing regimen with that:

1. Take antibody test. If no antibodies and no symptoms, continue staying away from others. If antibodies detected, take Coronavirus test.
2. If Coronavirus test is positive, quarantine. If negative, it should mean you recovered and are now immune, and should be free to not stay locked up.

I wonder if it's not quite that simple...
 
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Mihos said:
She was safe when they took the sample. She could have picked it up on the way out of the office for all anyone knows.

That's the silliness of 'test everyone'. Unless you are going to isolate people completely until the results are back, then pass them into a pre-quarantined population, it really doesn't mean much other than 'I didn't have it last Tuesday'
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Not only that but whats the failure rate of these tests? I forget where I read it but I heard it was fairly high (could have been improved with all these new tests being developed) Even if it was relatively low (say 98% accurate) thats still a big number of people who would be getting false positives or worse, false negatives.
 
eot said:
The north was locked down on March 8th I think, and the rest of the country shortly thereafter.
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So 2 weeks ago yesterday.

Problem is if they have ramped up testing they will still be showing an increase in the number of confirmed cases.
Similarly the number of deaths will still include people who were infected pre-lockdown and people who didn't get into serious condition until after lockdown.

What we'd be looking at for improvement in Italy is the number of new confirmed severe/critical cases.
THAT should be starting to decrease very significantly now.
 
Romulus said:
It seems like we were way overdue for something like this.
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Maybe but we've been getting better at understanding how and why these things appear and spread.

If certain parts of the world had stricter regulations on certain types of livestock markets then there's every likelihood that this would have been totally avoided.
 
Saruhashi said:
Maybe but we've been getting better at understanding how and why these things appear and spread.

If certain parts of the world had stricter regulations on certain types of livestock markets then there's every likelihood that this would have been totally avoided.
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Yeah I just mean a worldwide event. Meteor, solar flare, etc. We avoided a disaster in 2013 that would have killed at least a million people and affected the climate of the planet. The Russian meteor burned up in the atmosphere had a horizontal angle instead of more downward approach, saving a lot of lives.
 
Mihos said:
Social distancing inside your own home is not a thing. You are just quarantined together... hug your kid unless you personally broke quarantine.
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I haven't broke quarantine but I'm off a flight from London and I want to wait 14 days to be safe. I hug my kids but no kisses for now
 
Saruhashi said:
Maybe but we've been getting better at understanding how and why these things appear and spread.

If certain parts of the world had stricter regulations on certain types of livestock markets then there's every likelihood that this would have been totally avoided.
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Pretty sure there were multiple reports about China's wet markets being perfect breeding grounds for something like this, but they just werent taken very seriously by the people in a position to do something about it.

Also, we're talking about China. They dont give a fuck.
 
sinnergy said:
What I find weird, I haven't seen 1 story of recovery , no footage inside a hospital , no videos of parts of the country worst hit, something isn't right here in the Netherlands. We are so small yet nothing is shown.

Also nothing from the places worst hit.
Click to expand...

Theres quite a bit of footage inside hospitals in Spain and Italy.

As for the recovered, its taking over a month for someone who was on a ventilator to recover.

If you look at the closed cases (people either die or recover), the death rate is between 25-50% on most EU countries, these are the numbers we should be spreading, not the "its just 2% mortality rate, and doesnt affect young people", thats all bullshit, what we can look at is the effective death rate, not the mortality of the virus. It doesnt matter if you died because of the virus, or because you didnt get assistance, you're still dead.

Italy has a 44% death rate right now, Spain has a 40% death rate, out of the closed cases, please people take this seriously.

The global death rate is closer to 20%, if you ignore Chinas numbers, which most people agree are fake, so look at the death rate country by country.
 
Will be funny when all the toilet paper has vanished from the earth and we are using all these sappy Newspaper front pages as the new toilet paper.

"We didn't defeat shit! *wipes*"
 
I'm in Illinois and we are on shelter-at-home and only essential businesses are supposed to stay open. The company I work for heat treats fasteners and the vast majority (probably 90%+) are for the big three. With all of the plants shut down in north America it truly makes no sense for us to be open, but of course management has decided that we are critical to the transportation industry and are an essential business. They're using the time to catch up on back orders and making everyone work 32 hours to save money. Our stupid fucking GM was a couple states over last week, went skiing at a resort a week ago, and thinks we need to have meetings every fucking day in a small conference room. I swear to god if I get Covid 19 from this motherfucker I'm suing the company for negligence! What's even worse is the majority of what I do could be done remotely, but the stupid IT department doesn't want to give me VPN access.
 
Uk coronavirus bill: organizations could be requested to provide places to store bodies.

I mean, I know it's a "hope we never have to use it" option but holy shit is it surreal to see. :messenger_fearful:
 
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