Oh come on, get over it. The first case was tracked to November. By the end of December it was a serious thing, then in January it was starting to spin out of control
They had months to figure this out, people were still coming in from China in canada a few weeks ago.
From my perspective, Europe and the US underestimated it for a long time, because you hear about some diseases spreading in China/Asia quite regularly and they never became a problem for Europe or the US.
Everyone just thought this is going to be just like previous outbreaks, you hear about it in the news but it never really reaches you.
But many scientists warned in early January that the seemingly high infection rate, high rate and long period of patients needing intensive care and especially the long incubation period with asymptomatic transmission make this virus extremely dangerous and only a matter of time until it reaches and spread everywhere in the world.
But not many people listened and instead just looked and the not very intimidating death rate and compared it to the flu.
Which completely misses the point. Because we know that the real danger of pandemics in today's time is when healthcare systems reach capacity and collapse. So death rates are a secondary issue, the main issue is how fast this spreads and how many people will need intensive care. As we now see with Italy, once the healthcare system can't cope anymore, the death rate skyrockets from 1% to 10%, because many people can't receive the treatment they need anymore for a lack of resources.
Covid-19 spreads extremely fast, it's hard to track because it can spread asymptomatically and has a long incubation period, meaning that you can have major outbreaks in cities going on for weeks before you'll notice it through hospital admissions.
The most crucial thing here would be testing. Without widespread testing, you are blind to the spread. You can't lay out a rational course of action without having extensive testing data to inform it.
But most countries only started preparing when they already started seeing outbreaks, which is months too late.
This response was the problem. Even if China had already informed the world back in November, the West wouldn't have been better prepared.
Also, the important details about transmission, infection rate, and death rate only became available once the outbreak got going in China. Before January the number of cases was just way too low to read anything out of it.
But by January we knew the relevant facts and many countries still failed to prepare.
I honestly thought that the modern world would be better able to handle a pandemic. We have all the scientific knowledge and all the tools to handle it well, but our politicians refused to use these tools in time.
It's frustrating.
To think back to the 1918 Spanish Flu (that most likely originated from a poultry farm in the US btw., the only reason its called Spanish Flu is that the Spanish press wasn't censored at the time and so it was the first to report on it):
That was a time shortly after microbiology was "discovered". So this was the first pandemic in human history where we actually understood what was happening, but we weren't yet ready to actually fight the "invisible enemy".
Today we are able to fight it, but we still fucked it up.
We, as humans, should have been better than this.
Consider how big of an issue epidemics and pandemics have been throughout our history: Every religious scripture goes on at length about them, they have been seen as seminal events like huge wars, impacting everyone's lives in massive ways. They marked the ends and beginning of eras and empires. It was something humans just never could do anything about. People were simply at fates mercy.
But now, in a time where we can take fate into our own hands, we fail, because we can't bring ourselves to listen to the scientists when what they have to say sounds inconvenient. What our ancestors would have given to have a fighting chance against a threat like this...
And what's especially interesting is how the different ideologies across the world have all fucked it up in different ways.
China put it authoritarian way of doing stuff ahead of scientific considerations and especially the crucial free scientific expression and debate.
Had doctors and researchers not been censored we would have learned important things about this virus much quicker. Science is based on collaboration, that's the entire reason why people write and cite papers. Your work always relies on other peoples work.
China only look at the communist party's bottom line and even now is just doing things from which it thinks it will benefit the most.
The West, on the other hand, had apparently fallen into a state of complacency after there wasn't a major epidemic in over 100 years now and apparently had almost religious faith in that everything will be already.
On top of that, it is also now facing the fact that healthcare systems which are entirely or partially part of a free market, aren't prepared for extreme situations like these.
So China has a problem with its ideology, while the West has a problem with its system and complacency.
Both have the science they need, but both still manage to fuck it in different ways.
I am very confident that when all is said and done, the countries who will have managed this crisis the best, will be the ones who listened to their scientists the most and didn't censor or ignore them.