Microsoft's internal documents recognize that adding games to Game Pass would lead to cannibalization of Buy-To-Play sales

Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.

Successful consoles only have software attach ratios of 7 or 8 (a probable majority out of bargain bins and on sales), so it won't be hard for MS to at least match that level of spend per console if they can convert enough people into perpetual or semi regular subscibers. I've already spent more on Series X Gamepass than I did on Xbone games for example, and the stratospheric rise of live service F2P games are no doubt grinding attach ratios further into the dirt. I only own like 4 Xbone games, all of which I bought on extreme discounts or bogo's
 
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Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.
Ohh, a game within a game, sounds dangerous and exciting.
 
Microsoft will not increase the price of game pass.

Game Pass Ultimate is already pricey, Microsoft has just been way too kind with the deals. There's nothing about it to raise. The deals will end, that's it, outside Black Friday.

Base Game Pass they'll just restrict what you get with it until you pay for Ultimate.

You need to review how much a person not in GP has to pay for Ultimate without any deals. It's not cheap.

Literally zero reason to raise the price.

Your best bet may be base tier, but they could also restrict it so you have to get Ultimate for the most benefit.

Base Game Pass already restricts what you get. Gold isnt included with base Game Pass. And the annul sub discount no longer exists if you get Gold thru the Xbox console or from MS website. Because they got rid of annual subs for Gold. Only retailers have it, and even then it may be four 3 month subs at a discount.

Maybe MS will finally include it with base Game Pass and not raise the price, or they will. Or they won't ever include it and you will either get Gold seperate or get Game Pass Ultimate.

I'm still shocked they got rid of annual subs for Gold and it went completely under the radar. And Game Pass never had an annual sub. Restrictions have been in place for a few years already.
 
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Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.
Phil Spencer should say that Xbox players aren't transphobic and call the weak sales a success.
 
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Well, it certainly does. I can tell from my own experience I ended up buying Eastward on Switch, otherwise I wouldn't have know about it, so yes it does
You played a game pass game and then purchased it on another platform? So what they said is true, not in the way they probably envisioned it though! Lol
 
Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.
Check out the meta user reviews.
 
It'll be so funny if MS backtracks GP business model or even kill Xbox as a whole with the FOMO guys who have years of stacked GP subs.

Why would they backtrack it? It's the single biggest thing bringing them customers and it makes money and is still growing.

Everyone and thier dog with half a brain knew the pass would cannibalize a percentage of traditional sales.
 
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Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.

I understand what you are saying here, and I have done this myself. But I think it's offset, games like hogwarts I normally wouldn't buy, let's call it an a+ game but not a day 1 game.
If I see it on sale, I'll likely cave and buy it. Then there's also a ton of games I tried on gamepass that I never would have played that I later bought. Plus in some cases, software companies realize on higher exposure add on sales due to more people playing the games.
 
Then there's also a ton of games I tried on gamepass that I never would have played that I later bought.
I wonder what the number for this is like. So far, I have made zero purchases for a Game Pass game. I wonder if there are more people like you? Or, more people like me?
 
Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.
This is just going to make it easier for Sony to secure third party exclusives as time goes on. Less third party sales might even mean some developers will just completely skip Xbox without Sony having to pay them to do so. We are already seeing this with a lot of Japanese games. I imagine it's not too long before it starts happening with some western 3rd party games.

GamePass while it may be great for MS' PR and keeping Xbox part of discussions, it is killing their 3rd party sales and makes Xbox gamers refuse to spend money on retail games that don't make it to GP. Any developer that doesn't want to be part of GamePass will find it very easy skipping Xbox altogether as the situation gets worse.


People love to talk about Sony moneyhats but I think it's now becoming a case of MS sabotaging themselves with GP and making AAA 3rd party studios feel like Xbox is unattractive for high sales. MS have dug themselves into a hole, and I'm not sure they can get out of this one.
 
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I wonder what the number for this is like. So far, I have made zero purchases for a Game Pass game. I wonder if there are more people like you? Or, more people like me?
Probably more like you but you have to remember that in exchange they see getting a steady and reliable revenue stream from the entire subscriber base, which of course covers the game costs. It's extremely hard to know what works and what doesn't without all the data. I can say that it's a very large pool of cash each year at this point though. (I think they were saying 4.5 billion or more)
 
I guess that makes sense. I can see where if I was close to completing a big game and it was going to be removed, I would consider making the purchase but I would think those situations would be few.
 
I wonder what the number for this is like. So far, I have made zero purchases for a Game Pass game. I wonder if there are more people like you? Or, more people like me?

Same here. Game Pass was a big selling point for me in buying XSX. GP and MS Rewards specifically. Between those two I don't anticipate purchasing any games on Xbox. Just maximizing the GP benefits.
 
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Same here. Game Pass was a big selling point for me in buying XSX. GP and MS Rewards specifically. Between those two I don't anticipate purchasing any games on Xbox. Just maximizing the GP benefits.
And if anything, you have cost MS/Xbox dollars, not helped them earn any money 😛 (not blaming you or anything, but just pointing out the problems with this model).

Microsoft loses up to $200 per XBS console sold. Beyond that $200, you played a bunch of games and didn't pay any money, and used a combination of GP deals and Microsoft Rewards.

MS would have hoped that they'll recover the $200 loss (and more) once an Xbox buyer (like yourself) would purchase games on the Xbox store (that's the common business model with consoles), but you didn't give them any money after the purchase and just cost them money.
 
And if anything, you have cost MS/Xbox dollars, not helped them earn any money 😛 (not blaming you or anything, but just pointing out the problems with this model).

Microsoft loses up to $200 per XBS console sold. Beyond that $200, you played a bunch of games and didn't pay any money, and used a combination of GP deals and Microsoft Rewards.

MS would have hoped that they'll recover the $200 loss (and more) once an Xbox buyer (like yourself) would purchase games on the Xbox store (that's the common business model with consoles), but you didn't give them any money after the purchase and just cost them money.

Sorry SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage

Matthew Broderick GIF
 
And if anything, you have cost MS/Xbox dollars, not helped them earn any money 😛 (not blaming you or anything, but just pointing out the problems with this model).

Microsoft loses up to $200 per XBS console sold. Beyond that $200, you played a bunch of games and didn't pay any money, and used a combination of GP deals and Microsoft Rewards.

MS would have hoped that they'll recover the $200 loss (and more) once an Xbox buyer (like yourself) would purchase games on the Xbox store (that's the common business model with consoles), but you didn't give them any money after the purchase and just cost them money.

Hard to say for sure though, they work on the averages and the long haul. Most people pay for the pass itself monthly and then also buy other things. The other part of the equation is if they can start delivering reliable consistent AAA games and a good platform, they can bring more people with them into the next generation.....
 
Successful consoles only have software attach ratios of 7 or 8 (a probable majority out of bargain bins and on sales), so it won't be hard for MS to at least match that level of spend per console if they can convert enough people into perpetual or semi regular subscibers. I've already spent more on Series X Gamepass than I did on Xbone games for example, and the stratospheric rise of live service F2P games are no doubt grinding attach ratios further into the dirt. I only own like 4 Xbone games, all of which I bought on extreme discounts or bogo's

On the other hand, subscription burnout is definitely a thing. And when people come on hard times, they are the easiest things to cancel.

I've certainly burnt out on them. I have Amazon Prime, Microsoft 365, a couple of language learning services, Nintendo Online (only because it's so cheap), and my phone contract left. That's it other than necessities (of which I count Internet access).
 
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Same here. Game Pass was a big selling point for me in buying XSX. GP and MS Rewards specifically. Between those two I don't anticipate purchasing any games on Xbox. Just maximizing the GP benefits.
Cheap ass gamer chiming in. It's the best! I haven't bought a single game on XSX, I just use Gamepass, it's enough. Saved a ton of money that way.

I hoped I could do the same on PS5 with the PS+ Premium sub but it's pretty shitty in comparison tbh. The delays make me buy everything and then I get cranky because there is no big release on the service I haven't already played. The cheap ass gamer equation isn't working for me there. I'm still set till 2024 but I doubt I'll keep subbing if they aren't removing the delays.

The stock market is my solution right now, the Sony stock is usually moving up so if I invest between the big releases I can use the earnings to buy games.
It's how I pay for my PC as well - Nvidia stock. 🧠
 
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Lol that's a quote from 2018. Has he reiterated that in 2022?
Unless he releases a statement that contradicts/changes his previous statement, shouldn't the last official stance be taken as still applicable and valid?

There is no time period after which statements become invalid after all.
 
Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.

We need a game that's as big as hogwarts, reviews as well and doesn't have Sony marketing deals.

I was in a crazy convo in the office that made my head turn, all the middle aged lovers including myself were getting hyped for hogwarts and this guy said "are you al, looking forward to it then" we all were like yeah, looks great and it's got really good reviews.

The guy legit responded " well these guys are on xbox so sadge, they'll need to get a ps5" which the 2 guys with xboxs were like "nah, it's on xbox" the first guy was like "really¿, I thought it was Sony only, all the adverts on twitch and TV are for the ps5"

So it goes to show marketing does work to an extent still, props to Sony for grabbing this one. They always have their finger on the pulse for it.

I still expect a 70 / 30 split in favour of sony on sales for hogwarts. Maybe 65 / 35 with digital. Should accommodate the extra ps5 sales vs xbox and the marketing deal. I would imagine that's in line.
 
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Cheap ass gamer chiming in. It's the best! I haven't bought a single game on XSX, I just use Gamepass, it's enough. Saved a ton of money that way.

I hoped I could do the same on PS5 with the PS+ Premium sub but it's pretty shitty in comparison tbh. The delays make me buy everything and then I get cranky because there is no big release on the service I haven't already played. The cheap ass gamer equation isn't working for me there. I'm still set till 2024 but I doubt I'll keep subbing if they aren't removing the delays.

The stock market is my solution right now, the Sony stock is usually moving up so if I invest between the big releases I can use the earnings to buy games.
It's how I pay for my PC as well - Nvidia stock. 🧠
I just buy Sony games once they hit the 2-3 year point and are cheap.

All time lowest prices for games I'm keeping tabs on (courtesy of Duku Deals)

Dreams; £12
GT 7; £34
Kena; £14
Sackboy; £25

Next time Dreams and Kena go on sale I will buy, I will wait for GT7 and Sackboy to continue falling.

TLoU Part 2 has been £8 digital.

Just don't buy the games day one. There's plenty of stuff to play.
 
We need a game that's as big as hogwarts, reviews as well and doesn't have Sony marketing deals.

I was in a crazy convo in the office that made my head turn, all the middle aged lovers including myself were getting hyped for hogwarts and this guy said "are you al, looking forward to it then" we all were like yeah, looks great and it's got really good reviews.

The guy legit responded " well these guys are on xbox so sadge, they'll need to get a ps5" which the 2 guys with xboxs were like "nah, it's on xbox" the first guy was like "really¿, I thought it was Sony only, all the adverts on twitch and TV are for the ps5"

So it goes to show marketing does work to an extent still, props to Sony for grabbing this one. They always have their finger on the pulse for it.

I still expect a 70 / 30 split in favour of aony on sales for hogwarts. Maybe 65 / 35 with digital. Should accommodate the extra ps5 sales vs xbox and the marketing deal. I would imagine that's in line.
Sony are doing lots of things perfectly, delayed PC and PS+ releases sucks but they're always pulling the right strings to stay at the top of the conversation and Microsoft have a huge uphill battle to even come close.

To me it seems like Microsoft's successful releases are kinda taking them by surprise, like High on Life and Hi-Fi Rush, they get core gamers talking but are too late to use it for a marketing push and end up never reaching outside of the bubble.
 
I just buy Sony games once they hit the 2-3 year point and are cheap.

All time lowest prices for games I'm keeping tabs on (courtesy of Duku Deals)

Dreams; £12
GT 7; £34
Kena; £14
Sackboy; £25

Next time Dreams and Kena go on sale I will buy, I will wait for GT7 and Sackboy to continue falling.

TLoU Part 2 has been £8 digital.

Just don't buy the games day one. There's plenty of stuff to play.
Wish I was strong enough to do that but I always get caught up in the hype. Then comes the PC release. Sigh.

This is why Gamepass works so great for me, then I can jump in day 1 if I get too hyped and try out for myself if it's for me and if it's best played on PC or consoles with no double dipping or high release day prices. Absolutely loving it.
It'll be interesting to see how the monthly fee will change going forward if MS see that sales figures are dropping. I don't think they can do any serious price increases though, cheap gaming is the advantage they have right now, there is nothing else, if Gamepass become too expensive people will just go to PS or PC instead.
 
Unless he releases a statement that contradicts/changes his previous statement, shouldn't the last official stance be taken as still applicable and valid?

There is no time period after which statements become invalid after all.
I don't agree with that. It was a new type of revenue stream, that grew over the years, even more so due to COVID, a statement doesn't hold up 4-5 years later. Let's say everyone that played Xbox was on GP, does the statement then still stand? Obviously not because no one buys games anymore.
 
Sony are doing lots of things perfectly, delayed PC and PS+ releases sucks but they're always pulling the right strings to stay at the top of the conversation and Microsoft have a huge uphill battle to even come close.

To me it seems like Microsoft's successful releases are kinda taking them by surprise, like High on Life and Hi-Fi Rush, they get core gamers talking but are too late to use it for a marketing push and end up never reaching outside of the bubble.

Completely agree. On the button here.

Microsoft should be putting hi fi rush everywhere and meme the hell and do whatever they need to do to get chai, 808, peppermint and the whole cast in front of many eyes as possible.

Needs a netflix show ASAP.
 
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And if anything, you have cost MS/Xbox dollars, not helped them earn any money 😛 (not blaming you or anything, but just pointing out the problems with this model).

Microsoft loses up to $200 per XBS console sold. Beyond that $200, you played a bunch of games and didn't pay any money, and used a combination of GP deals and Microsoft Rewards.

MS would have hoped that they'll recover the $200 loss (and more) once an Xbox buyer (like yourself) would purchase games on the Xbox store (that's the common business model with consoles), but you didn't give them any money after the purchase and just cost them money.
To play the devil's advocate, this strategy is exactly what MS was planning to do ; which was to out bleed the completion with its huge parent's war chest. They know they will lose money and profit and they just dont care, as long as they are stealing the consumers away from their competition by undercutting Sony and Nintendo in price, and giving away "free" games with their cheap subscription services. They know that Sony and Nintendo cant outlast them is bleeding cash. Its a brain dead strategy that only MS can do.

MS competes by throwing away cash to gain market share, not content. Lucky for Sony, the consumers chose content and quality over cheap products with little value.
 
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To play the devil's advocate, this strategy is exactly what MS was planning to do ; which was to out bleed the completion with its huge parent's war chest. They know they will lose money and profit and they just dont care, as long as they are stealing the consumers away from their competition by undercutting Sony and Nintendo in price, and giving away "free" games with their cheap subscription services. They know that Sony and Nintendo cant outlast them is bleeding cash. Its a brain dead strategy that only MS can.

MS competes by throwing away cash to gain market share, not content. Lucky for Sony, the consumers chose content and quality over cheap products with little value.
king jimbo see through goblin phil schemes.
 
It'll be so funny if MS backtracks GP business model or even kill Xbox as a whole with the FOMO guys who have years of stacked GP subs.
Heh you make it sound like it would be a bad deal. It's still dirt cheap, $5/month using the prepayment deals. Can't prepay more than 3 years and that's less than 3 full price games total. It's nothing, I played 3 games first month lol

I instantly jumped onto the PSNow-to-Premium conversion as well, same price there $5/month if you split the prepayment sum over the number of month the service is active. Even if it ends today I've played more games than the prepayment cost. I think I'm up at 30 games at this point, for the price of 3.

Don't sleep on either service!
 
Why? Specially, why can't games be compared with movie productions?
Almost everybody watches tv and listens to music.
Gaming is still a tiny portion of the worldpopulation, although mobile games have a much larger audience than traditional gaming.

It's difficult enough to get the entire gaming community to move onto game streamingservices, let alone grow it to the size of the tv/music audiences.

This shouldn't even be something that needs to be pointed out, because they're incomparable.

That's why it was laughable when Spencer was talking about aiming for a market of "billions".
 
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It's really no wonder Sony was able to get temp exclusives from third parties, if sales are declining on Xbox. I have always said GamePass is a bad thing for the industry, glad to have been proven right.
You haven't been proven right. Ms compensates for games on gamepass. Declining unit sales after 12 months doesn't mean publishers are losing money. It depends how they are compensated. They could choose to be paid up front or based on hours played.

Most of the arguments in this thread are so fucking silly. Many need to apply some critical thinking instead of thinking " see i told ya " which runs counter to reality.

Even the developers that commented said ms offsets that decline with compensation
 
Andrew House said that PlayStation is able to use their console instal base as leverage. A comment he made early in the PS4 cycle. PlayStation's market share has grown exponentially since. To the point where PS is breaking records and XBOX is registering big declines while only in their second year of the current console cycle. That's actually unheard of unless you go back to 2013.

Yes Microsoft has the biggest coffers in gaming. But they also have this niggling annoyance called shareholders. The cost of negotiating a marketing deal for XBOX has to include the loss in sales that comes with aligning with XBOX to begin with. If there's one thing we've come to know as fact is that there is a gargantuan difference between Microsoft's PR and the numbers they have to legally submit during negotiations.

Publisher: We got this new game what can you as a platform bring to the table.
Microsoft: We're declining in console sales. Our stats show gamepass will hurt your release and later sales. Cloud is dismissed by our consumers and we're only selling well in one country.
Sony: We have a presence in every market. 30% of our current console instal base came from other platforms. We just broke another console sales and profit record and our projections for next Q...

Publisher:
dicaprio-leonardo-dicaprio.gif


Pay close attention to Kotick. After all that shit talking, once he realized that deal wont go through, he's crying publicly on tv that Sony wont return his phone calls. Like some jilted ex leaving 46 calls per hour. Despite what's going on at reset era and the copium thread, does anyone legitimately think Kotick is trying to market the next COD on a console that sells well in two territories. Or a platform with a global presence?
 
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You haven't been proven right. Ms compensates for games on gamepass. Declining unit sales after 12 months doesn't mean publishers are losing money. It depends how they are compensated. They could choose to be paid up front or based on hours played.

Most of the arguments in this thread are so fucking silly. Many need to apply some critical thinking instead of thinking " see i told ya " which runs counter to reality.

Even the developers that commented said ms offsets that decline with compensation
Although I have counterarguments, but let's assume all of what you said is correct. It does not negate anything what Azurro Azurro said.

If devs know that they won't get any sales on Xbox (and any cost recovery will have to be compensated via a Game Pass deal), it does make it easier for them to take a Sony's timed-exclusivity deal.
  • They get the extra money, support, and marketing from Sony in exchange for the timed-exclusivity deal.
  • They don't lose any initial-hype sales on Xbox because they weren't going to sell many copies anyway.
  • Then they get a guaranteed paycheck from MS whenever they all agree to put their game on Game Pass.
Win-win-win for the devs.

Less sales on Xbox will also mean cheaper exclusivity deals for Sony -- which means more timed-exclusivity deals at less cost.

But the problem remains: the money for those developers is coming from Microsoft, not necessarily from gamers. And that creates a problematic business model.

In many instances, unless Microsoft drops the Game Pass cheque, devs won't even port their games to Xbox (e.g., Persona, Yakuza, Octopath, etc.).
 
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In many instances, unless Microsoft drops the Game Pass cheque, devs won't even port their games to Xbox (e.g., Persona, Yakuza, Octopath, etc.).

"many instances" = a handful of Japanese titles that weren't coming to Xbox looooong before GamePass was a thing.

Seems we have a new fake doomsday narrative for GamePass, that somehow games suddenly don't sell on Xbox or something.
 
You haven't been proven right. Ms compensates for games on gamepass. Declining unit sales after 12 months doesn't mean publishers are losing money. It depends how they are compensated.

12 months following their addition to gamepass means after 12 months?

Really? This is what it means to you?
 
Microsoft is playing a dangerous game with GamePass. Pre-conditioning their audience to expect games on GamePass, or that Xbox just becomes a "GamePass machine", they sub to GamePass, and ONLY play what is on GamePass because they're paying for the subscription and simply don't care enough to buy retail content.

I feel like sales of third party games like Hogwarts is going to be a massacre for Xbox. The Ratio of PS5 sales to Xbox sales is probably going to be abysmal.
I logged on to play video games yesterday. Series X. I counted 8 of my 15 or so friends online playing Hogwarts. This is anecdotal obviously but the game is selling well everywhere.
 
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