How likely is Vitas success in Japan after MH3DS bundle?
- Thread starter Laguna
- Start date
OldJadedGamer
Banned
yurinka said:
According to your own link GT PSP sold 340k.
JasoNsider
Member
Father_Brain said:
This is pretty much right on the money. It always, always will come down to great games. Look through history and you will find it proves this statement.
Tech whizbangery is only the cost of entry; the games are what you will live or die on.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Are those wardrums I hear being beaten, or good old fashioned, revamped, recycled and refurbished 2004 era FUD?
MH first rose to prominence in an environment where PSP software sales were in the toilet. Nothing was really popular outside of big franchises and even then, sales were deflated. There weren't exactly many new releases either.
Then MHP gets released and attracts a cult following. The adhoc play suddenly elevates it from a middling franchise to one of the big boys.. Not only that, but was the only game in town, so to speak, on the PSP, so word of mouth gets out among other PSP owners and they've got themselves a hit.
The thing about this story is that I have my doubts that MH could have become the massive hit it did on a platform with as much competition as the DS. I think every platform naturally produces hits thanks in large part to timing and word of mouth, but that this becomes harder the deeper the platform's aggregate catalogue goes.
Basically, even if PSV never manages to so much as sniff MH ever again, other games will rise to the top and fill the gap. Nature and markets both abhor a vacuum.
Also, the smart money is on 3DS being the dominant platform this gen, albeit not on the same level as the DS. 3rd parties are on board from day one (which they weren't at the beginning of last gen) and it's a software that sells systems, not graphics, else SM64, Metroid Prime and Halo would have made their platforms dominant. Also, the incumbent statistically has a HUGE historical advantage.
MH first rose to prominence in an environment where PSP software sales were in the toilet. Nothing was really popular outside of big franchises and even then, sales were deflated. There weren't exactly many new releases either.
Then MHP gets released and attracts a cult following. The adhoc play suddenly elevates it from a middling franchise to one of the big boys.. Not only that, but was the only game in town, so to speak, on the PSP, so word of mouth gets out among other PSP owners and they've got themselves a hit.
The thing about this story is that I have my doubts that MH could have become the massive hit it did on a platform with as much competition as the DS. I think every platform naturally produces hits thanks in large part to timing and word of mouth, but that this becomes harder the deeper the platform's aggregate catalogue goes.
Basically, even if PSV never manages to so much as sniff MH ever again, other games will rise to the top and fill the gap. Nature and markets both abhor a vacuum.
Also, the smart money is on 3DS being the dominant platform this gen, albeit not on the same level as the DS. 3rd parties are on board from day one (which they weren't at the beginning of last gen) and it's a software that sells systems, not graphics, else SM64, Metroid Prime and Halo would have made their platforms dominant. Also, the incumbent statistically has a HUGE historical advantage.
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
viciouskillersquirrel said:
so what say you of the "Vita has no 3rd party support" or "no big games for 2012" ramblings?
doesn't Vita have 26 launch titles which is the most at launch of any PS platform? 3rd parties ARE on board, and day one. sony's focused this thing on being awesome for developers to make games for... i'm just not seeing the game drought of the PSP days that a lot of people are trying to suggest.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
I never said.a damn thing about Vita 3rd party support. Not a damn thing.Commanche Raisin Toast said:
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
viciouskillersquirrel said:
i know, im just asking you what you think......?
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
jman2050 said:
yep, and a healthy outlook on future software support helps sell units.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Ah. I thought you were trying to read something into my post that wasn't there.Commanche Raisin Toast said:
Vis a vis the PSV lineup, it's OK. All the games announced so far are very "launchey" and quite a few are in genres that:
A) Haven't historically done well on handhelds
B) Are niche genres to begin with
Basically, I don't see Killzone or Uncharted raising the platform to heaven in Japan. There are a few games that look promising, but their sales potential is unknown.
inner-G said:
wait what? regardless if people are knowleadgable with specs or not, they'd clearly know they would be getting the "latest model DS" for only $20.00 more and it comes with games to boot. i'm not sure that people who can afford a "cheap" price of $149 wouldn't make the jump for such a small difference.
Commanche Raisin Toast
Member
viciouskillersquirrel said:
good points.
i was pretty surprised to see a big NA title like uncharted as a japan launch game. at least they *sort of* like uncharted over there. could do decently...
It will do fine, well at first at least I think.
Like with everything, the following months...years are more telling than just launch.
I mean, a few months ago the 3DS was doomed...when the Wii was announced, Nintendo was doomed. The PSP was doomed, yet Monster hunter games in Japan were selling millions.
Heck, look at the drama caused by the Slide Pad add-on for the 3DS and how again, the 3DS was doomed.
So, lets just wait. It just means more games and more choices.
Like with everything, the following months...years are more telling than just launch.
I mean, a few months ago the 3DS was doomed...when the Wii was announced, Nintendo was doomed. The PSP was doomed, yet Monster hunter games in Japan were selling millions.
Heck, look at the drama caused by the Slide Pad add-on for the 3DS and how again, the 3DS was doomed.
So, lets just wait. It just means more games and more choices.
You guys really need to wait until the Vita launches because many of you are bringing up stupid points that have nothing behind them. The games are being made but they are not going to be talked about until after the Vita launches. Trying to talk about 2012 games on Vita is beyond stupid at this point.
Games are being made.
Games are being made.
Commanche Raisin Toast said:
not really. the best-selling uncharted game in japan did slightly over 100k. the vita will probably boost uga's numbers more than uga will boost vita's numbers.
the best-selling vita launch games, barring a surprise hit, will by dynasty warriors and hot shots golf 6.
Why would anyone want Vita to fail is beyond me. It is a portable device that should be heralded as the 'second coming' for any gamer out there. I can't believe it (specs, etc.) is real.
Games will be there, too. But first of all, this is the most promising portable hardware launch since...
Games will be there, too. But first of all, this is the most promising portable hardware launch since...
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
the PSP? This seems word for word like something from 2004.Kuran said:
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Dave Reeves also said they'd be announcing their first Wii U games in September. Things change.yurinka said:
DW7 PSP bombed too. I think PS3 is the only real healthy place left for Musou.Chris1964 said:
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Those are all direct ports, MH3 and MHP3 are really different games at their core, even if they share a lot of art and ideas. Maybe Strider NES vs Arcade would be a better comparison.yurinka said:
I'm not an expert but P3 also dropped more than just underwater combat and environments. Bowgun customization and subquests were both also dropped off the top of my head, not to mention online play. I've also hear the game is way easier.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Fuck me! Reeves is sneaky one...AniHawk said:
lol. I'm sure it's going to get exactly what Vita is: PORTZ. Probably the same ones even. :/Takao said:Maybe they did, and we just don't know it yet?
SSJ1Goku said:
this was argued before and the counter argument is that 3DS had more big/known franchise announced long before it was launched and more details available.
Also, most of 3DS titles announced are not just games sounds like in really early planning stage.
- new fantasy RPG
- new fantasy action RPG
- new action adventure
- RPG from Level-5
Not only they don't screenshots, they don't even have logos or names. This kind of projects are also the ones that can be canned the most easily.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
The sorts of list wars that happen at the start of a new generation never fail to amuse me. I remember a time when titles like FFVIIR, Home and Naughty Dog Game graced the PS3 list.
Cosmo Clock 21 said:
Argument is invalid.
First of all, the PSP had a great selection of games with a beautiful screen/hardware and graphics that in some cases still rival recent 3DS releases. In 2004.
To me, that was amazing. Nobody but Sony had the balls to really go all-out on a portable platform. It was a great first effort.
This time they will have a much greater support for third party development tools, a beautiful touch screen OLED, and a second analog stick. Those three things alone make a world of difference.
With Nintendo I always have the feeling they cut corners and took the cheaper option in regards to build quality, hardware design and screen quality. I think the DS Lite was the only exception.. with Sony I don't have that feeling.
Edit: I'm not trying to say that either company will win/lose the next portable generation, just trying to understand how some people would prefer the 3DS to the Vita as a hardware platform. (Not judging or keeping in consideration the games on either platform)
test_account
XP-39C²
When that party ends, a new one can start =)marc^o^ said:
If the 3DS had a slow start and managed to pick up pace again, same happened with PS3 and PSP as well, why shouldnt any other system manage it as well?
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
Matching and one-upping the competition feature for feature isn't a winning strategy. Not for PSP, not for PS3, not for any platform. Plus, the new tech sheen tends to wear off really quickly once people adjust their expectations.Kuran said:
Second analog stick is the only really distinguishing feature the PSV has and even then, a lot of the popular genres in Japan don't really use them all that much. Not to mention the 3DS mutant shell, which may deaden its impact somewhat.
If the PSV succeeds in carving out a healthy market, it will be on the back of its game library. No more and no less.
test_account
XP-39C²
And the rear touchpad.viciouskillersquirrel said:
EDIT: Trophies as well, nothing like that on an handheld system as far as i know. Maybe the same with party chat, but i'm not 100% sure about that.
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
True. In my mind, the rear touchpad makes the second analog stick redundant. I'm surprised more hay hasn't been made of it.test_account said:
I guess it's hard to really advertise on the basis of better ergonomics.
EDIT: Trophies/achievements don't sell systems to new people. They sell software to customers you already have, and even then, it really only matters to heavy users. Party chat, I think you'll find, isn't that compelling a feature on a handheld people play in public.
War never changes.
Yeah, the Vita will be home to a few niche franchises in the end and may go on to be some kind of otaku porn machine and video player but so far as having a chance at being the number one portable gaming machine in Japan, that ship has sailed. Iwata isn't playing around.
Yeah, the Vita will be home to a few niche franchises in the end and may go on to be some kind of otaku porn machine and video player but so far as having a chance at being the number one portable gaming machine in Japan, that ship has sailed. Iwata isn't playing around.
viciouskillersquirrel said:
How about a gorgeous screen and the horsepower to display console-level graphics? I would call that a feature.
I'm not a graphics whore at all, but the ability to play Dark Souls on the go (PhyreEngine is completely compatible with Vita) is incredible.
I don't believe 'gimmicks' are required for a succesful hardware launch, rather whatever implementation suits the device's needs.
The 360 was just fine without any gimmicks, besides offering a great online service and games.
I can't believe you are saying people wouldn't be excited for the Vita because of its technical capabilities and hardware design, but only for its potential games library. It is going to be incredible looking at that screen, for both 2D and 3D games.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Will you have that feeling when you have to buy a high premium priced propietary memory card for any PSN Vita games?Kuran said:
Gee, sure was nice of Nintendo to give me this 2GB card. On top of the 2GB they stuffed inside the system. So generous! <3
I do believe Vita will eventually overcome the challenges it faces. It will require killer apps + a price cut, at the very least offering a memory card early in 2012. Sony probably gave Nintendo too much liberty to grow a userbase and developper support. Doesn't mean they won't find a market for Vita, but it could have been much bigger had it released months earlier.test_account said:
This holiday season is for 3DS, it's bound to become a phenomenon with highly social games such as Mario Kart and MH, 3D video recording gimmick that should yet be viral, tons of games, many bundles and colors to chose from.
Launching after 3DS price cut was already bad, but after what I just described... I consider it a bad execution, a severe missed opportunity to compete on equal foot.
Compared to the domination of the Game Boy line over its myriad and varied competition? I'd say DS vs. PSP was mighty close compared to them, yes?Jaded Alyx said:
Although, of course, it was never really that close, even in Japan. I guess what I mean is that I'd like a similar situation to occur this time round, since it seemed to benefit both parties and the consumer.
Besides, I very much want Dragon's Crown to succeed
even though 'll be buying the PS3 version, thank you very much
viciouskillersquirrel
Member
I'm genuinely not excited for the hardware at all. After all, the Turbografx 16, the Philips CDi and the Neo Geo had incredible hardware in their day and age, but it would have been a waste of time to buy them for me because I don't like their game libraries.Kuran said:
The PSV hardware will be cutting edge for what, a year after release? By the time iPhone 7 rolls around do you think that OLED screen is really going to wow people? No. If people are buying Vitas in 2013, it will be because of the games. Don't let your hard-on for gigaderps blind you to the real value consoles provide: a stable development platform and a captive market for software.
Meisadragon said:
I am astounded how short term our memories are. That already, just a few months down the line, we are here even discussing that the Vitas launch price is not to high is just amazing to me.
Some folks just never learn. The Vita will do its launch numbers like any new console/handheld, and it will be amplified by it launching in the midst of the holidays.
What follows afterwards will hopefully be the final nail through the skull of the hardheaded; that the price matters. And a lot. Nintendo couldnt sell at that price, Vita will not either, no handheld gaming device will right now. The games situation with the 3DS dropping a fuckton of heavy hitters right on Vitas coming out party just pours salt on the
Vita will survive, but it will do horribly at the price its at and with the competition it has outside of its launch window. And I really dont consider that an opinion, more like an inevitability. Even if it had freaking GT6, MH4, Uncharted, and somehow Pokemon day ONE, we would still be able to easily recognize the way the price held it back.
Kuran said:
I remember these kind of posts. Circa $599 PS3 right? Shame the planet doesnt share your view of things.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
The flipside of this is that Nintendo's never had a stronger platform than when they went up against PSP. GB or GBA never raked in the sales DS has, even with higher marketshares. In fact the difference in userbase between PSP and DS is about the total userbase GBA managed.Dambrosi said:
Though really, GB didn't have a much higher marketshare in the early 90s even, Game Gear was a pretty strong comptetitor early on.
test_account
XP-39C²
No idea, maybe someone hasnt thought of something really unique with the rear touchpad yet. I'm sure that we will see something as time goes by thoughviciouskillersquirrel said:
As for trophies and party chat, i also have no idea how these things are for people in general. For me personally, i really like that it has trophy support, but i dont care much about the party chat. Everytime i play online, i only use headset when i play with friends and when i play the same games as they do. But i do think that the PS Vita OS will have some cool features that could be a good selling point
Until pre-orders open and we see how much Sony market the machine in Japan, I'd say its a little hard to predict how well the VITA will do at the moment. Currently I think they will have a hard time at that price point, but the system does have a lot going for it and enough good launch titles to secure a decent sell rate.
One thing is for sure, Sony certainly have a tough time of it. The MH3DS bundle is one thing, but Nintendo are really putting on the hurt with some good 1st party titles as well and KHDDD is out just after the sales period in Japan.
I'm glad, really, to see both companies push software now on their devices. What worries me for the VITA is what the system can produce after the launch software is out. Gravity Daze and "transffering" titles are the only thing on the horizon right now, with little else confirmed that will push people to buy past the $150 mark for point of entry.
One thing is for sure, Sony certainly have a tough time of it. The MH3DS bundle is one thing, but Nintendo are really putting on the hurt with some good 1st party titles as well and KHDDD is out just after the sales period in Japan.
I'm glad, really, to see both companies push software now on their devices. What worries me for the VITA is what the system can produce after the launch software is out. Gravity Daze and "transffering" titles are the only thing on the horizon right now, with little else confirmed that will push people to buy past the $150 mark for point of entry.
Fantastical
Death Prophet
You are putting way too much emphasis on price and not software. You have to remember that 3DS has virtually no heavy hitters (and still doesn't) before the price drop. It's not really fair to use 3DS as an example of the effect of price because if a Monster Hunter was out at launch, I think it would be a much different story. Of course, we'll never know.Cipherr said:
If Vita had Monster Hunter 4 and a Pokemon tier game at launch or close to it, people would shell out the money.
dark10x said:
Different market indeed. Nobody is willing to spend $250 in this economy on a gaming dedicated handheld, but $500 for a multipurpose device that indeed can even help individuals in a quite functional manner (there are applications that can help businesses you run, that can help you keep in contact with your customers, friends... that can help you write, read, etc... in other words, it can become a cornerstone in a way a gaming device never can) is a different matter entirely.
One is 'superfluous' in an economy like this, the other is one of those 'well if we get it we can find a use for it that is important' sort of thing. Even if these people are just trying to find a justification for it and it won't happen that way, there is still a justification to be had. Most people are not going to be able to find a justification for a $250 gaming handheld so that they could keep their Call of Duty habit going.
I say this as someone who finds the Apple brand of products embarrassingly awful
Similar threads
- Poll