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[shaowebb]

As those of you who were active in the Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3 threads are aware I am a college student taking a statistics class and my final is me running numbers on the 12 new characters.

25 people Voted including myself on a 9 question survey that asked people to list their teams, their favorites new cast and 3 assists, usefulness of a character on a team and as an individual, favorite song, and of course the top 12 rank of the cast.

I took two seperate data surveys on things. One from before the reveals of Rocket Raccoon and Phoenix Wright and one after just to show how peoples opinions changed on things. Thank you to everyone who voted for all your time and now here are the results of the top 12 rankings!

PRE REVEAL RANKINGS
1. Vergil (avg. score-3)
2. Strider (avg. score-4.32)
3. Firebrand (avg. score-4.52)
4. Dr. Strange (avg. score-5.16)
5. Nova (avg. score-5.44)
6. Hawkeye(avg. score-6.32)
7. Ghost Rider(avg. score-6.48)
8. Phoenix Wright (avg. score-6.88)
9. Iron Fist (avg. score-8.28)
10. Nemesis(avg. score-8.92)
11. Rocket Raccoon (Had 2 votes…a vote for #8 and a vote for #1)
12. Frank West (Had 1 vote for #8)

FINAL RANKINGS AFTER REVEALS
1. Vergil (avg. score-3.04)
2. Strider (avg. score-4.12)
3. Firebrand (avg. score-4.52)
4. Rocket Raccoon(avg. score-5.16)
5. Dr. Strange (avg. score-5.56)
6. Nova(avg. score-5.76)
7. Hawkeye (avg. score-6.76)
8. Ghost Rider (avg. score-6.8)
9. Phoenix Wright (avg. score-8.24)
10. Frank West (avg. score-8.64)
11. Iron Fist (avg. score-9.28)
12. Nemesis (avg. score-10.08)


BEFORE YOU START COMPLAINING READ AHEAD!!!!!!
Given that some characters final rank average was as small in difference as .04 points from another character you are likely already in arms griping that this doesn't paint the full picture of the cast and your votes.

You're RIGHT.

That is why I looked heavily into some math used in statistical averages in industry and commercial business. Turns out there is something called a "box and whisker plot" that shows the full picture. It shows the low/high extremes of somethings data as well as the lower,mid, and upper quartile data boxes to show the true ranges of something's worth.

In simple terms IT IS DESIGNED TO GENERATE TIERS USING PURE MATH. Here is how to read it.

The wider the box the more uncertain folks are on their tier placement, but the median says which end of their tier they are leaning to based off of votes. The smaller the box the more certain people are of a character's tier. If they lean too low in their box they are close to falling a tier, and if they lean to high in their box they are close to going up a tier.


Get it? Got it? GOOD.

HERE ARE THE TIERS!!!!!!!!!!

Madness.

Firebrand's upper median limit is DEAD EVEN with his actual overall median rank of #3. That means the least bit of improved tech for him and he will likely see his whole box shift upwards even higher. Nemesis and Iron Fist are hanging out near the bottom with Nemesis hugging the bottom for all he's worth.

These results are for more accurate than simply averaging ranks because unlike averages they are not adversely effected by extreme high or low voters. Everything is indicative of the median of the most voted ranks. In other words their TRUE rank placement.
Lots to see here.

As the game progresses in tech after launch these will change. If I get the time I'll set up a site or something so the whole cast can be tiered using these formulas month to month online, but I'm in my final year so this unlikely to happen.

BUT WAIT THERES MORE!
Whats the point in tier talk if I don't show EVERYONES VOTES!
I'll leave off the stuff on songs, and usefulness on teams until thats finished being tallied, but I'll show everyone ranks, faves, and teams they intend to use now. Thanks you everyone.
_____________________________
DAHBOMB

1) Vergil
2) Strider
3) Firebrand
4) Hawkeye
5) Rocket Racoon
6) Nova
7) Ghost Rider
8) Dr Strange
9) Nemesis
10) Iron Fist
11) Frank West
12) Phoenix Wright

Favorite
Vergil

Team:
Vergil (Rapid Slash)/Wesker (Low Gun Shot)/Iron Man (Unibeam)
________________________________________________________
Karsticles

1.Strider
2.Rocket Raccoon
3.Firebrand
4.Vergil
5.Nova
6.Hawkeye
7.Frank West
8.Wright
9.Ghost Rider
10.Nemesis
11.Iron Fist
12.Dr. Strange

Favorite:
Firebrand
Team:
Firebrand/Dormammu/Morrigan
___________________________________________
Bizazedo

RANK
1. Vergil
2. Firebrand
3. Nova
4. Dr. Strange
5. Strider
6. Rocket Raccoon
7. Ghost Rider
8. Hawkeye
9. Phoenix Wright
10. Frank West
11. Iron Fist
12. Nemesis

Favorite:
NOVA
Team:
Nova, Zero, Wesker
_____________________________________________
Crimsonspider89

1. Nova
2. Strange
3. Firebrand
4. Rocket Raccon
5. Hawkeye
6. Strider
7. Vergil
8. Iron Fist
9. Ghost Rider
10Frank West
11. Wright
12. Nemesis

Favorite:
NOVA

Team:
Nova, Ghost Rider, and Dorm
________________________________________

Mr. Puppy

1. Strider
2. Vergil
3. Ghost Rider
4. Nova
5. Dr. Strange
6. Hawkeye
7. Iron Fist
8. Nemesis
9. Firebrand
10. Phoenix Wright
11. RR
12. FW

Favorite:
Strider
Team:
Dante (jam session)/Firebrand (heavy demon missile)/Ghost Rider (heartless spire or chain depending on matchup).
____________________________________
Twisted-Gamer

1. Dr Strange
2. Ghost Rider
3. FireBrand
4. Strider
5. Vergil
6. Racket raccoon
7. Nemesis
8. Nova
9. Phoenix Wright
10. Iron Fist
11. Hawkeye
12. Frank West

Favorite:
NOVA
Team:
Rocket Raccoon/Nova/Dormammu
____________________________________________
REIGUN

1. Vergil
2. Firebrand
3. Nova
4. Ghost Rider
5. Strider
6. Rocket Raccoon
7. Doctor Strange
8. Hawkeye
9. Frank West
10. Phoenix Wright
11. Nemesis
12. Iron Fist

Favorite:
Hawkeye

Team:
Hawkeye/Trish/Ghost Rider
_________________________________
Viewtiful Dru

1Vergil
2Dr Strange
3Strider
4Firebrand
5Rocket
6Hawkeye
7Phoenix Wright
8Ghost Rider
9Iron Fist
10Frank
11Nemesis
12Nova

Favorite:
Iron Fist

Team:
Spencer/Dante/Hawkeye
____________________________________
Banana Kid

1. Phoenix Wright
2. Frank West
3. Hawkeye
4. Rocket Raccoon
5. Dr. Strange
6. Iron Fist
7. Nova
8. Ghost Rider
9. Strider
10. Firebrand
11. Nemesis
12. Vergil

Favorite:
Phoenix Wright

Team:
Phoenix Wright/Frank West/Captain America
__________________________________________
Shaowebb

1) Vergil
2) Nova
3) Firebrand
4) Strider
5) Rocket Raccoon
6) Iron Fist
7) Hawkeye
8) Ghost Rider
9) Dr. Strange
10) Frank West
11)Phoenix Wright
12)Nemesis

Favorite:
Iron Fist (MAAAAAANNLY!)

Team:
Iron Fist/Ryu/Nova
___________________________________________
TOUCH

- 1 Rocket Raccoon
- 2 Strider
- 3 Firebrand
- 4 Vergil
- 5 Hawkeye
- 6 Frank West
- 7 Nova
- 8 Nemesis
- 9 Ghost Rider
- 10 Phoenix Wright
- 11 Iron Fist
- 12 Doctor Strange

Favorite:
Rocket Raccoon

Team:
Rocket Raccoon/Sentinel/Doom
_____________________________________
Tiger Uppercut

1Nova
2strider
3vergil
4firebrand
5dr strange
6hawkeye
7ghost rider
8p.w.
9nemmy
10Iron fist
11.Rocket Racoon
12. Frank

Favorite:
Nova

Team:
Taskmaster/She-Hulk/Nova
______________________________
Nate 405

1 Vergil
2 Dr Strange
3 Firebrand
4 Rocket Raccoon
5 Phoenix Wright
6 Nova
7 Strider
8 Hawkeye
9 Ghost Rider
10 Frank West
11 Nemesis
12 Iron Fist

Favorite:
Phoenix Wright

Team:
Vergil/Firebrand/Dr. Doom
_________________________
Nils

1. Nova
2. Vergil
3. Dr. Strange
4. Strider
5. Rocket Raccoon
6. Iron Fist
7. Phoenix Wright
8. Ghost Rider
9. Hawkeye
10. Frank West
11. Firebrand
12. Nemesis

Favorite
Nova

Team
Taskmaster/X-23/Nova
__________________________

Kamisamaa

1. Vergil
2. Ghost Rider
3. Hawkeye
4. Frank West
5. Nova
6. Dr. Strange
7. Rocket Racoon
8. Iron Fist
9. Strider
10. Firebrand
11. Phoenix Wright
12. Nemesis

Favorite:
Vergil

Team:
Dante/Vergil/Dormammu
________________________________
Thoughtsofspeaking

1 Vergil
2 Strider
3 Firebrand
4 Iron fist
5 Dr strange
6 Ghost rider
7 Rocket racoon
8 Hawkeye
9 Nemisis
10 Nova
11 Frank west
12 Phoneix wright

Favorite:
Vergil

Team:
Dante/Vergil/Strider
______________________________________

Devastator Prime

1. Vergil
2. Rocket Raccoon
3. Strider
4. Hawkeye
5. Ghost Rider
6. Firebrand
7. Nova
8. Dr. Strange
9. Nemesis
10. Phoenix Wright
11. Frank West
12. Iron Fist

Favorite:
Phoenix Wright

Team:
Phoenix Wright/Trish/Dormammu
_________________________________

Becquerel

1.Firebrand
2. Rocket Raccoon
3. Frank West
4. Nova
5. Vergil
6. Hawkeye
7. Ghost Rider
8. Dr. Strange
9. Strider
10. Iron Fist
11. Nemesis
12. Phoenix Wright

Favorite:
Rocket Raccoon

Team:
Super-Skrull/ Nova/ Rocket Raccoon
_____________________________________________
Shadowninja64

1. Vergil
2.Dr. Strange
3. Hawkeye
4. Nova
5. Frank West
6. Rocket Raccoon
7. Phoenix Wright
8. Ghost Rider
9. Nemesis
10. Strider
11. Firebrand
12. Iron Fist

Favorite:
Phoenix Wright

Team:
Phoenix Wright (dog assist)/ Ghost Rider (Heartless Spire)/ Doom (either Hidden Missiles or Plasma Beam)
_____________________________

Gods Beard

1.Firebrand
2.Dr. Strange
3.Strider
4. Rocket Raccoon
5. Nemesis
6. Vergil
7. Hawkeye
8.Nova
9. Phoenix Wright
10. Frank West
11. Ghost Rider
12. Iron Fist

Favorite:
Nemesis *StAAAAAAaaaaArrrrrrrRRRRssssss.......*

Team:
Nemesis(Armor Slam)/Firebrand(Hell Vomit)/Dr.Strange(Tracking Discs)
________________________________________________________________
Sephi22

1. Strider Hiryu
2. Vergil
3. Phoenix Wright
4. Rocket Raccoon
5. Ghost Rider
6. Frank West
7. Firebrand
8. Dr Strange
9. Hawkeye
10. Iron Fist
11. Nova
12. Nemesis

Favorite:
Phoenix Wright

Team:
Phoenix Wright/Strider Hiryu/Dr Doom
_____________________________________________

Solar Powered

1.Strider
2.Vergil
3.Firebrand
4.Dr. Strange
5. Nova
6.Rocket Raccoon
7.Hawkeye
8.Frank West
9.Ghost Rider
10.Iron Fist
11. Phoenix Wright
12.Nemesis

Favorite:
Strider

Team:
Amataresu/Trish/Nova
_______________________________
Solune

1.Strider
2.Vergil
3.Phoenix Wright
4.Firebrand
5.Ghost Rider
6.Dr. Strange
7.Iron Fist
8.Nova
9.Rocket Raccoon
10.Frank West
11. Hawkeye
12.Nemesis

Favorite:
Vergil

Team:

Chris/Zero/Dante
______________________________
Qistoptier

1. Firebrand
2. Rocket Raccoon
3. Phoenix Wright
4. Ghost Rider
5. Srider
6. Frank West
7. Nemisis
8. Nova
9. Vergil
10.Hawkeye
11. Dr. Strange
12. Iron Fist

Favorite:
Firebrand

Team:

Firebrand/Rocket Raccoon/ Shuma gorath
_____________________________________________
Azure Jericho

1. Vergil
2. Dr. Strange
3. Firebrand
4. Strider
5. Rocket Raccoon
6. Iron Fist
7. Phoenix Wright
8. Nova
9. Hawkeye
10. Ghost Rider
11. Nemesis
12. Frank West


Favorite:
Vergil

Team:
Dante (Jam Session)/Vergil (Rapid Slash)/Morrigan (Dark Harmonizer)

 

["God's Beard!"]

FINAL RANKINGS AFTER REVEALS
1. Vergil (avg. score-3.04)
2. Strider (avg. score-4.12)
3. Firebrand (avg. score-4.52)
4. Rocket Raccoon(avg. score-5.16)
5. Dr. Strange (avg. score-5.56)
6. Nova(avg. score-5.76)
7. Hawkeye (avg. score-6.76)
8. Ghost Rider (avg. score-6.8)
9. Phoenix Wright (avg. score-8.24)
10. Frank West (avg. score-8.64)
11. Iron Fist (avg. score-9.28)
12. Nemesis (avg. score-10.08)

YOU ARE ALL DEAD TO ME

 

[DryEyeRelief]

Interesting. Thanks for doing this.

 

[shaowebb]

UPDATED 12/06/11

Here are the top assists voted for out of the new 12 pre-release. Most tied so they're not really numbered, but check out how many votes some assists had here.

Top Voted Assists
#1
Ghost Rider - Heartless Spire=10

#2
Strider-Vajra=9
Rocket Raccoon-Log Trap=9

#3
Nemesis-Launcher Slam=6
Hawkeye-Violent Fizz=6

#4
Phoenix Wright-Get em’ Missile!=5

#5
Iron Fist-Crescent Heel=4
Dr. Strange-Eye of Agamotto=4
Nova-Gravimetric Pulse=4

#6
Dr. Strange-Daggers of Denaak=3
Iron Fist-Dragon Fang=3

#7
Vergil-Rapid Slash=2

#8
Nemesis- Rocket Launcher=1
Dr. Strange-Bolts of Balthaak=1
Iron Fist-Dragon’s Touch=1
Rocket Raccoon-Spitfire=1
Ghost Rider-Chain of Rebuttal=1
Hawkeye-Kamikaze=1
Hawkeye-Greyhound=1
Firebrand-Hell Spitfire=1
Nova-Centurion Rush=1
_________________________________
Also the average usefulness rankings!

AVERAGE USEFULNESS BY THEMSELF (scale of 1 to 5. 1 being bad and 5 being great)
#1
Firebrand- 4.36
Vergil- 4.36
#2
Rocket Raccoon- 4.04
#3
Dr Strange - 3.96
Strider- 3.96
#4
Hawkeye- 3.88
#5
Nova- 3.84
#6
Ghost Rider- 3.64
#7
Frank West- 3.08
#8
Nemesis- 2.52
#9
Iron Fist- 2.4
Phoenix Wright- 2.4

AVERAGE USEFULNESS ON A TEAM

#1
Dr Strange- 4.48
#2
Hawkeye- 4.4
#3
Vergil- 4.32
Ghost Rider- 4.32
#4
Strider- 4.28
#5
Rocket Raccoon- 4.2
#6
Firebrand- 4.12
#7
Nova- 3.88
#8
Frank West- 3.52
#9
Phoenix Wright- 3.48
#10
Iron Fist- 3.32
Nemesis- 3.32

 

[shaowebb]

YOU ARE ALL DEAD TO ME

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL


I reserved a slot to post in though for later. He had a lot of votes on assists so as I crunch some more numbers I can at least tell you if he's considered a top tier assist character. Also, I'll be looking through and seeing who was used most on teams as well as the usefulness rankings for cast alone and on teams.

Theres still more data for me to do but I've been at this a LONG damn time. Figured I'd post this and you can have fun. Don't feel bad. Iron Fist is down there too so we both likely favorite assist characters.

 

[Karsticles]

It's funny how many people voted their favorite newcomer as #1.

Nice work Shao - this was very enjoyable to see. I'd like to think that I personally dragged Dr. Strange down a notch.

Excited to see the rest.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Your prof better give you an A lol.

 

[Deleted member 13876]

Miiinor nitpick, but that's my old list where I thought you were asking for hype levels rather than tiers. Great work and nice visual representation. Are you planning to tally the favorites?

 

[Grakl]

What was your sampling method?

Spoiler

hehe

 

[QisTopTier]

I'd like to think that I personally dragged Dr. Strange down a notch.

LOL same here.

 

[enzo_gt]

Nemesis at the bottom?

*restores faith in GAF*

BTW I linked to this thread in the OT, shao.

 

[Zissou]

This stuff is really interesting, nice work man. Mahvel gaf is indeed best gaf.

 

[sixteen-bit]

Theory fighter to the next degree. Fascinating.

 

[SolarPowered]

The final rankings are actually pretty good aside from Frank West. I think he may surprise us all.

Theory fighter to the next degree. Fascinating.

God's Beard has been dethroned.

 

[Defuser]

Why am I not surprised to see Vergil and Strider?

 

["God's Beard!"]

The final rankings are actually pretty good aside from Frank West. I think he may surprise us all.

God's Beard has been dethroned.

What? This is just random stats, like Dahbomb's stuff. Polls are not theory fighter. It's... hype theory, or something.

 

[ShadowNinja64]

It's funny but I'm already looking at my votes and thinking I've changed my mind on a few characters. Specifically speaking, Strider and Firebrand should both probably shift up some. I do still think a lot of the new characters will be fairly compact in terms of usefulness and goodness, though.

 

[shaowebb]

Miiinor nitpick, but that's my old list where I thought you were asking for hype levels rather than tiers. Great work and nice visual representation. Are you planning to tally the favorites?

Sorry about that. I cut/pasted the lists from a different data page I had that was formatted better for the lists. The stuff in the charts though is from the other list that had your finalized lists up on it.

Glad everyone enjoyed this.

 

[ihearthawthats]

Why am I not surprised to see Vergil and Strider?

sword tier is best tier.

 

[QisTopTier]

I lol'd at everyone that has firebrand below 3rd

 

[enzo_gt]

Strider and Strange are a bit higher than I would have expected, kinda thought Hawkeye and Firebrand would be closer to the top.

Also, how'd you do on this assignment/project, shaowebb?

 

[Kaako]

Theory fighter to the next degree. Fascinating.

Seriously this. -_-

 

[zlatko]

Ya'll sleeping on Iron Fist will rue this day.

 

[shaowebb]

Strider and Strange are a bit higher than I would have expected, kinda thought Hawkeye and Firebrand would be closer to the top.

Also, how'd you do on this assignment/project, shaowebb?

I won't know for a few more weeks, but since my data was time sensitive to release I had to do my stuff before deadline considering it took 2 weeks to poll it alone and nearly a whole week to compile half of it.

I'd say I'll do pretty good. Everyone else is doing BS mean, median, mode surveys on cars in parking lots they see and such. Theres a reason why I'm looking strong towards valedictorian and stuff like this is it.

Also did anyone notice some of the teams and lists people posted up there? Some of these votes and teams blow my mind. Surprising number of Phoenix teams up there and one that even has BOTH Phoenix Wright and Frank West together

Ya'll sleeping on Iron Fist will rue this day.

We are now friends my good man. Best.Friends.

 

[devastatorprime]

Awesome awesome awesome. I dont know why exactly but I had a huge grin on my face while reading the results. Its funny that the characters who I ranked high are actually the ones Im not as hyped for. I totally plan on playing alot of Nemesis, Iron Fist, Phoenix Wright etc. regardless of how good or bad they end up being.

 

[shaowebb]

Awesome awesome awesome. I dont know why exactly but I had a huge grin on my face while reading the results. Its funny that the characters who I ranked high are actually the ones Im not as hyped for. I totally plan on playing alot of Nemesis, Iron Fist, Phoenix Wright etc. regardless of how good or bad they end up being.

Yeah the funny thing about Iron Fist is he consistently scored a 1 or 2 in his usefulness alone meaning most see him as shit in that field, but on teams he was almost always a 5 meaning that (as I kept saying) we all feel that in a team he becomes lethal and adds a lot with his assists. His assists got favorited a lot too. Nemesis got a lot of the same treatment so these two are likely slot fillers with fan players.

Loved this survey. So much stuff.

 

[Solune]

Very interesting results. So many bodies forsaking Nick.

sword tier is best tier.

You got that right.

 

[shaowebb]

Very interesting results. So many bodies forsaking Nick.

Yeah, but I expect almost everyone to try and setup Phoenix Wright teams in the background to practice though. The guy just has too much power in Turnabout mode not to give him a try in your offtime to see if you can figure him out.

Interesting fact...Vergil seems to have the most favorites. He topped out the list on everything. Usefulness, rank...pretty much about everything out there that mattered. I can't say we weren't all voting objectively though considering I fanboyed for Iron Fist and even I voted that beast number 1.

Vergil is looking stacked. I'm curious if its possible to run a kind of bullet hell with him using jamming bomb assist and his summonable blade orb thingies against folks. Jamming bomb screws with jumps and his blade sphere summons look harsh on rushdown. I already know he can rush and mixup...just trying to see if he can play lame with an assist that isn't obvious like log or disruptor to keep guys confused out there.

 

[Bizazedo]

Math is the best, isn't it?

Good job, Shao.

 

[mr. puppy]

Nemesis at the bottom?

*restores faith in GAF*

BTW I linked to this thread in the OT, shao.

big slow guys never rank well, its not surprising. that character looks awesome though

 

[shaowebb]

Just noticed a few cool things in this. Rocket Raccoon has the smallest tier range meaning out of everyone of the 12 he is the character everyone feels the most certain about on rank. He used to be the wildcard pre-launch in conversation.

Also Ghost Rider and Hawkeye show the same tier median meaning they should rank about the same, but Ghost Rider has a larger tier range and a higher extreme on his voters list than Hawkeye which implies folks are less certain he will remain viable compared to Hawkeye. When stuff like that shows up expect somebody to jump around a lot after matchups and events.

I love these things. Maybe some day I'll graduate and can get a site made that handles the equations itself to generate these things online.