Wkd Box Office 054-612 -Whedon smash comic-to-film opening record, Nolan stays mad
- Thread starter xaosslug
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wut. It's going to drop over 50% for sure.
From a quick glance, that'd be the best drop aside the first Spider-Man (comic book movies only).
Too optimistic, but who knows.
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=vs-marvel.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=vs-xmen.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=avengersassemble.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=batmanvs.htm
Too optimistic, but who knows.
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=vs-marvel.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=vs-xmen.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=avengersassemble.htm
http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=batmanvs.htm
ViewtifulJC
Banned
$100 mil second weekend was my bet, and even I thought that was a little too nice.
MrPink93485
Member
Seems like Dark Shadows is gaining some nice traction in other countries as a nice bit of counter programming, gonna go with 105 mil for Avengers and 40 million for Dark Shadows.
shira
Member
I love that IMAX friendly deal wb has
Yeah, that record is toast.
The Avengers Wednesday drop was a bit steeper than I expected (was expecting closer to a 18-20% drop), but drops on Monday and Tuesday were lighter than usual, so it will still end up in a good place heading into the weekend.
Thursday's gross should be pretty similar to today's gross, say $12.5-13M, which would give the Avengers $270M heading into the weekend.
Friday increases for Thor and Iron Man 2 averaged about 130% on this weekend during the past two years. If Avengers manages the same, it will get a Friday gross of $29-30M. With a standard 50% increase on Saturday and a 35% decrease on Sunday, the Avengers would make $100-104M for the weekend. If it followed the second weekend Fri/Sat increase and Sun drop of Spider-man 3, the Avengers would make over $125M this weekend. However, I don't think that is likely. Spider-man 3 had horrible weekday numbers.
With Steeper drops domestically and overseas on Wednesday, The Avengers won't quite make the $810M worldwide that I thought it would heading into this weekend. It should still break $800M today, but will need $195-200M internationally to tie the fastest to $1B record this weekend. It will be close.
Thursday's gross should be pretty similar to today's gross, say $12.5-13M, which would give the Avengers $270M heading into the weekend.
Friday increases for Thor and Iron Man 2 averaged about 130% on this weekend during the past two years. If Avengers manages the same, it will get a Friday gross of $29-30M. With a standard 50% increase on Saturday and a 35% decrease on Sunday, the Avengers would make $100-104M for the weekend. If it followed the second weekend Fri/Sat increase and Sun drop of Spider-man 3, the Avengers would make over $125M this weekend. However, I don't think that is likely. Spider-man 3 had horrible weekday numbers.
With Steeper drops domestically and overseas on Wednesday, The Avengers won't quite make the $810M worldwide that I thought it would heading into this weekend. It should still break $800M today, but will need $195-200M internationally to tie the fastest to $1B record this weekend. It will be close.
BOM predictions: http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3440&p=.htm
Forecast (May 11-13)
1. The Avengers - $95.4 million (-54%)
2. Dark Shadows - $33.3 million
Forecast (May 11-13)
1. The Avengers - $95.4 million (-54%)
2. Dark Shadows - $33.3 million
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Has any movie done $100+ in 2nd week?
The Dark Knight's first weekend was $49M behind the Avengers first weekend, but being a summer movie, it had better weekdays. Assuming the Avengers is at $270M tomorrow (which it will be, within $1m), the Dark Knight cut the Avengers lead to $35.5M after 1 week.
The Dark Knight was at $313M after its second weekend. The Avengers needs a $92M weekend to regain its initial $49M lead. I think that is quite feasible, and the Avengers may even increase that lead over TDK to $60M+ this weekend.
The Avengers needs to outgross TDK by $67M to break $600M.
$500M is locked at this point. $550M pretty close to locked, barring a 60%+ drop this weekend.
Avatar has the second Weekend record at $75.6M, so no. The Dark Knight made $75.1M on its second weekend. Shrek 2 and Spider-man 1 both had 70M+ second weekends as well. However, Shrek 2's second weekend was a Holiday weekend, as was Avatar's.
The Dark Knight was at $313M after its second weekend. The Avengers needs a $92M weekend to regain its initial $49M lead. I think that is quite feasible, and the Avengers may even increase that lead over TDK to $60M+ this weekend.
The Avengers needs to outgross TDK by $67M to break $600M.
$500M is locked at this point. $550M pretty close to locked, barring a 60%+ drop this weekend.
Avatar has the second Weekend record at $75.6M, so no. The Dark Knight made $75.1M on its second weekend. Shrek 2 and Spider-man 1 both had 70M+ second weekends as well. However, Shrek 2's second weekend was a Holiday weekend, as was Avatar's.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
Well Bridesmaids was really successful
Gary Whitta
Member
I kinda feel bad for Dark Shadows, I can't imagine what it must be like trying to launch a movie in the shadow of such a box-office juggernaut.
Oh wait, yes I can.
Oh wait, yes I can.
Good Job Bob
Member
Anything's possible when Whedon's involved.
I kinda feel bad for Dark Shadows, I can't imagine what it must be like trying to launch a movie in the shadow of such a box-office juggernaut.
Oh wait, yes I can.
lol
Judging just by the trailers only, this is the only Burton movie i actually feel like watching since sheesh, Big Fish maybe?
Discotheque
Banned
I actually think Dark Shadows looks kinda....fun
Manmademan
Member
So were Mamma Mia! and "My Big Fat Greek Wedding."
most of these films are character driven films (as opposed to special effects events) that appeal heavily to one gender, so its not that common to get breakout successes like this.
I don't think so. Dark Shadows is clearly a film that Depp/Burton/Bonham-Carter are doing because they think it's fun to do (as opposed to a soulless cash grab like BATTLESHIP) so i'm not going to hate on it.
Something tells me that even if he couldnt get major studio backing, he'd be making these things as independent films.
Avengers had the highest non summer Wednesday by more than 4 million. Movies always drop dramatically on Wednesday in non summer months, Avengers held great.
Gary Whitta
Member
I'd be a bit worried if I had a lot of money rolled up in Dark Shadows, I think Avengers is still going to be sucking all the oxygen out of the room this weekend.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Was Dark Shadows that expensive though? It's Depp, I can't imagine it being a flop given his BO pull world wide.
Same. It looks like a dark comedy, because it's a dark comedy. Not something Burton is turning into a dark comedy.
Gary Whitta
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Bond makes more from product deals than it does from box office at this point.
A Marvel film has debuted on the first weekend of May for each of the last 6 years. The Avengers had the steepest Wednesday percentage drop of any of those films. However it had really good Monday and Tuesday holds, and judging by Thor's very similar drop last year (after an increase on Tuesday), it's probable that discount Tuesdays have become a bigger thing in the last year or two. My city has always had them, and they are often as busy as opening night for new releases.
Obviously a $13.6M Wednesday in the second week of May is amazing, but I was hoping for closer to $15M after seeing Monday and Tuesday's results.
If 007 was going to blow up in North America, it would have done so with Quantum of Solace. The fact that the Borne movies grossed more during that same time frame leads me to believe that Americans just don't care about James Bond. The movies do alright here, but they will never be mega releases. Skyfall won't even have the privilege of making the bottom part of the annual top 10 like its predecessors did. This year is too packed. We already have 3 films over 200M, and TDKR, Brave, ASM, Twilight, and the Hobbit will all join that club.
Yup, grandpa Craig will have to do with whatever seconds he's got after the big boys have done their thang. So much for Solo hyping up grandpa Craig's BO draw. :lol
Hot Coldman
Banned
He's 44, 3 years younger than RDJ.
You couldn't tell really
Discotheque
Banned
typical irfan trolling as usual. I hope Solo doesn't bite.
And also Craig does look older than RDJ. But he's got a fucking impressive body too.....
And also Craig does look older than RDJ. But he's got a fucking impressive body too.....
Hot Coldman
Banned
Important thing is, he's still good for the role. After Brosnan's ultra-sleek take on the character, I highly appreciate Craig's way more interesting version, and it's criminal we've only got 2 films out of that so far, one of which wasn't anything to write home about.
Skyfall will be killer. Luckily, I'm in the UK, where everyone will pay attention.
Thats the joke. He looks way older and this is not just my opinion.
Oh please stop being Solo's bitch. Everyone can poke fun at each other, you dont have to play the troll card.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
irfan isn't a troll. He's just woefully misguided and has awful taste. Also he's a troll.
Discotheque
Banned
Important thing is, he's still good for the role. After Brosnan's ultra-sleek take on the character, I highly appreciate Craig's way more interesting version, and it's criminal we've only got 2 films out of that so far, one of which wasn't anything to write home about.
Skyfall will be killer. Luckily, I'm in the UK, where everyone will pay attention.
Brosnan was like Roger Moore, only better. But still a bitch ass compared to the real men who played the role prior to him.
Daniel Craig is the second best now.
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
Where is this interview from? I MUST KNOW!
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I think that's a little optimistic. Spider-Man 3 legs would have it falling just short of $500m, and Iron Man 2 would put it just shy of The Dark Knight. I think $500 or even $550 is possible, but I wouldn't call it a lock. $450m definitely is, but I could see it falling short of $500m. This weekend will determine a lot. Right now, there's a pretty big range of possibilities.
$500M is a lock. Spider man 3's first Wednesday was $6.7M. Iron Man 2's first Wednesday was just under $7M. If Avengers was following Spider-man 3, you would expect a $9.2M Wednesday. If Avengers was following Iron Man 2, you would expect a $11.3M Wednesday. It made $13.6M.
The Avengers following the rest of Spider-man 3's run after opening weekend meant the movie would get a ~$460M total. The Avengers following the rest of Spider-man 3's run after Wednesday's numbers means the movie would get a $492M total. When we get Thursday numbers, following Spider-Man 3's total will mean $500M. The fact that the extrapolation keeps increasing means that the Avengers is clearly not following Spider-man 3's run
I haven't watched this in so long. Bale's reaction is so fucking funny. His eyes shift to at least three different subjects as he processes what was just said. It's amazing.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Christ. Watch them severely underestimate this weekend as well.
That was a given when last Saturday's estimates came in.
The real challenge will be the third weekend record. If, and I personally think that is a huge if, it manages to make the third weekend record, that will be a big upset.
To have a chance at the third weekend record, Avengers needs a ridiculous second weekend. Like $115-120M. even then, it would need to drop 46% or less in its third weekend.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
That is why it would be a big upset, and why I don't think it will happen.
I think that $55-60M next weekend is possible. Not a record but still huge.
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