E3 Hype Begins.... Who Really Needs to Bring It Hard This E3?
- Thread starter RyanReedyMusic
- Start date
Angel Abaddon
Member
See I completely disagree with that. Favour is already starting to turn against 360, many people are beginning to get disillusioned with them. And your suggested strategy is exactly what Sony did with the PS3 when they got lazy and content. Granted they came out after a gap with the 360, but they still felt they could get away with a lot because they assumed the PS2 fanbase would flock back.
Pachterballs
Banned
when is it? May? Sony + MS I care about most at this point in time. so these 2.
Nintendo and Sony.
Microsoft can power through anything by throwing money at it, so I'm not worried about them.
Nintendo need to come out with big sellers and fanbase fap material, or they might indeed be looking at the GameCube 2 with the Wii U (sales-wise), and Sony need to do something about the Vita, and do a better job making the PS4 a must-have system at the time of release than they did with the PS3.
Microsoft can power through anything by throwing money at it, so I'm not worried about them.
Nintendo need to come out with big sellers and fanbase fap material, or they might indeed be looking at the GameCube 2 with the Wii U (sales-wise), and Sony need to do something about the Vita, and do a better job making the PS4 a must-have system at the time of release than they did with the PS3.
My man. Not only because you support a awesome game.
alexandros
Banned
That is an interesting point of view, it seems quite logical. I guess it depends on how much of a splash Valve is looking to make, if they're satisfied with maintaining their current level f success then a low-key presence might be enough. If, however, they want to present themselves as a major player in the console space, I think that the coming publicity storm (that the big 3 will surely generate) cannot be countered without something truly impressive.
Sony and Microsoft have the means, the money, the brand recognition and the loyal following to dominate E3 and push everyone else to the side. I think Valve needs somethingbig in order to steal the show.
Barry Burton
Member
I think Nintendo has to bring it hard. How they do this holiday is going to go a long way towards determining the viability of this system in 2014 and beyond, against the next PS and Xbox. After two pretty lackluster showings the last two years, a tough first year for the 3DS and what's looking like possibly a tough first year for the Wii U, they have the most to prove.
A good e3 now is basically a whole lot of shooters, sports games, casual motion controlled stuff, and random cable tv / other services. And Nintendo's gone after the virtual cake decorating crowd. I kinda just want to see some good action adventure stuff or arcade games that are not shooters.
RPGCrazied
Member
Nintendo, no question. They have to start announcing the big franchise games, soon. Zelda? Metroid?
The Bookerman
Member
Not going this year, I'll enjoy it from my monitor. Sure the excitement is gonna be palpable, but LA is a freakin dump. It's no Detroit, but it's close enough.
They won't be the ONLY releases, we'll get Need for Speed, Aliens: Colonial Marines, hopefully Tomb Raider and other third party games most of which we probably won't care a whole lot about but really I think that's a pretty strong line up. Compared to Nintendo's past hardware in particular.
funkystudent
Member
Everyone needs to bring it for diffrent reasons.
MS need to bring it get in the lead early. Sony and Nintendo have fumbled the ball and this is there chance to dominate the market and try and push them out.
Sony needs to bring it because they are in a very precarious position. If MS hits them hard with 3rd party exclusives and betrayalatons then they are kind of fucked. Sony need to LOCK DOWN some 3rd party games for the ps4.
Nintendo needs to bring it because the Wii U is kind of depressing
MS need to bring it get in the lead early. Sony and Nintendo have fumbled the ball and this is there chance to dominate the market and try and push them out.
Sony needs to bring it because they are in a very precarious position. If MS hits them hard with 3rd party exclusives and betrayalatons then they are kind of fucked. Sony need to LOCK DOWN some 3rd party games for the ps4.
Nintendo needs to bring it because the Wii U is kind of depressing
the 3ds is somewhat stabilized, but it could be doing a lot better in the us. nintendo still needs to focus on that system, but they absolutely must rescue the wii u at this point. i think it was their plan all along to have something of a blowout while sony and microsoft do the same for their own system. as of now it seems like a detrimental strategy, so we'll see.
with the ps3 on its way out, and the vita essentially dead, sony needs to knock it out of the park with the ps4. maybe the ps4 will have some vita crossplay to revive their handheld business a bit, but their focus should really be on the home market.
microsoft can just kinda coast along at this point. they shouldn't get too comfortable- the 3ds and ps3 show what can happen when you're too comfortable, but they're clearly in the best position for the upcoming generation.
with the ps3 on its way out, and the vita essentially dead, sony needs to knock it out of the park with the ps4. maybe the ps4 will have some vita crossplay to revive their handheld business a bit, but their focus should really be on the home market.
microsoft can just kinda coast along at this point. they shouldn't get too comfortable- the 3ds and ps3 show what can happen when you're too comfortable, but they're clearly in the best position for the upcoming generation.
Dirtyshubb
Member
This years E3 really does have that big feel to it, considering both Sony and Microsoft will either be revealing their new consoles or at least showing off more detail (if they revealed early) but every company needs to work hard really.
Sony They really need to drive home the point that they are at least equal with MS otherwise it could hurt them quite a bit. I have faith that they can do this though, the main issues that Sony had with the PS3 which caused a lot of people choosing 360 over PS3 should be fixed by PS4 since hardware wise they seem to be going a more sensible route, plus Im sure they have taken a lot of devs opinions on board like they did with the Vita. The Vita also shows they have a much better grasp of whats needed OS wise, the only thing that lets the Vita down is the fact you have to take battery life into consideration which is why the account apps are separate and you have to keep re-connecting to your account but of course none of this will affect a home console.
Another thing they need to do is come out swinging with games, since Sony have the best 1st party games this gen by a clear mile (in my opinion) I have faith they will come with the goods, especially since a lot of their studios have had at least 2 years to work towards launch/launch period games. If they managed to show Uncharted 4 and/or Killzone 4 that would make a lot of people loose their shit, let alone anything else they may be cooking up!
Finally if Sony can come out with (which I hope they do) an improved PS+ service that gives you access to older games over Gaikai then that could really help show that their console is better value for money then any other, plus added benefits like instant demos ect.
Microsoft I feel this is actually a hard thing to predict, the gut feeling is of course that they will get most of the attention and have enough money to buy a great launch but their focus on media is something that tends to overshadow any real games related news. Of course they are gonna come out with some big games but since they want this to be the real start of a 1 box living room they are gonna need to focus on the media abilities. Im sure they will get huge reactions regardless but I dont think its as smooth sailing as some think, especially since (anecdotally of course) a lot of people seem to be moving on from 360, especially with the idea of paying for Live Gold becoming a real turn off for what you get out of it so who knows whats gonna happen.
Nintendo I havent been a fan of theirs for quite a while now so my personal feelings might cloud my judgement but I really cant see anything they can bring that will be able to fend off both MS and Sony, even if they came out with a new Mario, Zelda, SSB ect all announced at once its just not gonna get anywhere near the sort of attention 2 new consoles is gonna bring! It just feels like anyone who isnt already 100% sure they are gonna get a WiiU is gonna forget about it as soon as the HD twins successors are announced.
I feel that its already too late to get any major success out of it by now, its clear the casual market that made the Wii such a huge success isnt coming back, so all you really have left is gamers, of course you can get a huge market from them too but because of all their design choices like low power, especially in comparison to whats expected from the new consoles.
I am really excited to see whats being shown though, even though im sure (unless something miraculous happens) im only gonna pick up the PS4, its still an exciting time to see what everyone brings.
Sony They really need to drive home the point that they are at least equal with MS otherwise it could hurt them quite a bit. I have faith that they can do this though, the main issues that Sony had with the PS3 which caused a lot of people choosing 360 over PS3 should be fixed by PS4 since hardware wise they seem to be going a more sensible route, plus Im sure they have taken a lot of devs opinions on board like they did with the Vita. The Vita also shows they have a much better grasp of whats needed OS wise, the only thing that lets the Vita down is the fact you have to take battery life into consideration which is why the account apps are separate and you have to keep re-connecting to your account but of course none of this will affect a home console.
Another thing they need to do is come out swinging with games, since Sony have the best 1st party games this gen by a clear mile (in my opinion) I have faith they will come with the goods, especially since a lot of their studios have had at least 2 years to work towards launch/launch period games. If they managed to show Uncharted 4 and/or Killzone 4 that would make a lot of people loose their shit, let alone anything else they may be cooking up!
Finally if Sony can come out with (which I hope they do) an improved PS+ service that gives you access to older games over Gaikai then that could really help show that their console is better value for money then any other, plus added benefits like instant demos ect.
Microsoft I feel this is actually a hard thing to predict, the gut feeling is of course that they will get most of the attention and have enough money to buy a great launch but their focus on media is something that tends to overshadow any real games related news. Of course they are gonna come out with some big games but since they want this to be the real start of a 1 box living room they are gonna need to focus on the media abilities. Im sure they will get huge reactions regardless but I dont think its as smooth sailing as some think, especially since (anecdotally of course) a lot of people seem to be moving on from 360, especially with the idea of paying for Live Gold becoming a real turn off for what you get out of it so who knows whats gonna happen.
Nintendo I havent been a fan of theirs for quite a while now so my personal feelings might cloud my judgement but I really cant see anything they can bring that will be able to fend off both MS and Sony, even if they came out with a new Mario, Zelda, SSB ect all announced at once its just not gonna get anywhere near the sort of attention 2 new consoles is gonna bring! It just feels like anyone who isnt already 100% sure they are gonna get a WiiU is gonna forget about it as soon as the HD twins successors are announced.
I feel that its already too late to get any major success out of it by now, its clear the casual market that made the Wii such a huge success isnt coming back, so all you really have left is gamers, of course you can get a huge market from them too but because of all their design choices like low power, especially in comparison to whats expected from the new consoles.
I am really excited to see whats being shown though, even though im sure (unless something miraculous happens) im only gonna pick up the PS4, its still an exciting time to see what everyone brings.
This has to the earliest E3 hype train ever but thats cos this E3 is the most important for all 3!
Nintendo need to fight for survival. They taken a risk and it's backfired, now it's time for damage limitation.
MS are the success story this gen as although they are in 3rd place worldwide, they seem to have the hearts and minds of the hardcore. The hardcore are a fickle bunch and will turn on their masters. Just as Sony in 2006.
Sony as a whole needs a successful PS family right now so this will be their most important E3 since 2006 and they can't fuck up. They have the advantage of having their back against the wall and likely to fight big time!
I think Nintendo will win E3 as they've had years to make something special for WiiU in secret, or at least I hope!
Nintendo need to fight for survival. They taken a risk and it's backfired, now it's time for damage limitation.
MS are the success story this gen as although they are in 3rd place worldwide, they seem to have the hearts and minds of the hardcore. The hardcore are a fickle bunch and will turn on their masters. Just as Sony in 2006.
Sony as a whole needs a successful PS family right now so this will be their most important E3 since 2006 and they can't fuck up. They have the advantage of having their back against the wall and likely to fight big time!
I think Nintendo will win E3 as they've had years to make something special for WiiU in secret, or at least I hope!
StreetsAhead
Member
Pretty much. But hype alone does not a console make.
Come June, Nintendo will have (likely) released most of its announced games for Wii U and 3DS (sans Smash, Bayo 2, Retro's game, and Monolith's game). They have the potential to be showing off 3DS Zelda, 3DS Treasure game, EAD Tokyo's 3D Mario U, Wii U Sports, Monolith and/or Retro, Monolith Kyoto's 3DS game, and a few others. I think the biggest issue with them, as always, is third party mutliplatform releases for next Christmas (especially cross-gen ones) as well as new IPs and any 3rd party exclusives.
AdventureRacing
Member
This is a huge E3 for all of the big 3. Every one of them will either have a new console on the market or will be a about to launch one. They all will be wanting to start out strongly. Nintendo in particular need to show something big to have any chance imo.
That isn't what happened at all and that isn't the strategy sony used at all. Instead of just making the PS3 a beefed up PS2 that actually launched for a reasonable price they figured they could get away with launching for $599 and still dominate. If they had done what the poster above had suggested they probably would have won this gen easily and MS probably would have been fucked. Of course the 360 isn't nearly in the position that the PS2 was in so that won't work now.
I'm not sure i buy the idea that people are starting to turn on the 360. That isn't reflected in either hardware or software sales. Frankly they are both neck and neck right now and it's going to be interesting to see how either of them try to get a leg up on the other.
That isn't what happened at all and that isn't the strategy sony used at all. Instead of just making the PS3 a beefed up PS2 that actually launched for a reasonable price they figured they could get away with launching for $599 and still dominate. If they had done what the poster above had suggested they probably would have won this gen easily and MS probably would have been fucked. Of course the 360 isn't nearly in the position that the PS2 was in so that won't work now.
I'm not sure i buy the idea that people are starting to turn on the 360. That isn't reflected in either hardware or software sales. Frankly they are both neck and neck right now and it's going to be interesting to see how either of them try to get a leg up on the other.
It backfired?
grimshawish
Banned
I suspect Nintendo will introduce a group of new games then over the month following E3 show us a bunch of fucking content on them.
Pretty much this. Assuming both launch this year, I still don't know if I'm getting a 720 or PS4 at launch. So, IMO, it's up to MS and Sony to sell their console to me.
Nintendo hasn't shown me I'm missing out on games that I couldn't already find on the PS360. They need to show games that prove the Wii-U is on another level than the PS360, no matter how little the difference may be. =p
MS has to show that they aren't dedicating 3 of the 4GB of memory to some bloated OS with functions I won't care about 80% of the time.
With Sony, I just want something that's about even in power and some simple features added to the OS.
Price to performance ratio will win me over most of all. So whichever company will give me the biggest bang for my buck will have my money this fall.
As long as the consoles are shown off playing "actual" in development games instead of "what if" tech demos, I'll be pleased. And if bullshit tech stuff were to be shown off, I hope the ever gullible majority of the press shows spine this time and reject those illusions in unison.
Cornbread78
Member
- They REALLY need to come through and actually give fans what they want. They are tettering on obscurity with their $hit poor marketing and product offerings this gen. I think things will get violant if they spend E3 showing off flash/browser and iOS games...
It will be pics of a HD Zelda, Mario Cart, Mario Brawl, Mario Sports, Mario Fishing, Mario Dancing, Mario @$%@#%^ etc. That's their focus and they will push the $hit outta their giant cash cow to move WiiU's and all of teh upcoming upcoming shovelware/software that the system needs and games that made the Wii so popular....
Right fricken' here.... Microsoft, is just going to show up, flip and twirl their long wavy hair and push out their chests with the 720 launching in the fall, that alone will set everything afire. If Sony does not have anything to show, and does not stand out from the 360, they are completely cooked in NA. They have to stand out and make a good appearance and promise delivery of the PS4 around the same time as the 720, if not and they delay their launch/ showing, then they just wasted millions and millions in R&D dollars because they will be DOA.....
Kacho
Member
Sony and Nintendo both need to bring it at E3 this year.
Nintendo did not capitalize on making a noteworthy splash at E3 for the past two years. Now that the Wii U is out they need to go all out if they want any sort of momentum this upcoming holiday season.
Sony has the most to prove with their next gaming console. After the fumble with the Vita, I don't believe they can afford another repeat of the PS3 launch. It will be interesting to see what they bring to the table this year as the XBOX brand is as strong as ever.
Nintendo did not capitalize on making a noteworthy splash at E3 for the past two years. Now that the Wii U is out they need to go all out if they want any sort of momentum this upcoming holiday season.
Sony has the most to prove with their next gaming console. After the fumble with the Vita, I don't believe they can afford another repeat of the PS3 launch. It will be interesting to see what they bring to the table this year as the XBOX brand is as strong as ever.
Haunted
Member
All of them really need to.
Nintendo has to bounce back after a lukewarm launch and a missed opportunity to distance themselves early.
I feel console excitement has never been lower. Microsoft and Sony need to show they're coming out in force to stem the huge waves of users migrating to mobile and Steam. I'm half excited about new Sony first party games (MS doesn't really have a first party worth talking about) and half excited about the new business models. Because a completely unchanged business model (500 premium console with 60 games) could be a recipe for disaster for both of them.
Nintendo has to bounce back after a lukewarm launch and a missed opportunity to distance themselves early.
I feel console excitement has never been lower. Microsoft and Sony need to show they're coming out in force to stem the huge waves of users migrating to mobile and Steam. I'm half excited about new Sony first party games (MS doesn't really have a first party worth talking about) and half excited about the new business models. Because a completely unchanged business model (500 premium console with 60 games) could be a recipe for disaster for both of them.
JosephManderley
Member
Sony and MS both have the same challenge in my eyes - they need to give me a reason to buy their systems rather than a decent gaming PC. That is going to be a struggle as I expect both consoles are going to be very expensive at launch.
Nintendo needs to show me the games. Give me a sniff of a new 3D Mario and a Wii U Sports Resort (Wii Sports Resort in HD, with a bigger island and 3-4 extra sports using the pad) I'll be reasonably happy. 3rd party support is a bonus.
Nintendo needs to show me the games. Give me a sniff of a new 3D Mario and a Wii U Sports Resort (Wii Sports Resort in HD, with a bigger island and 3-4 extra sports using the pad) I'll be reasonably happy. 3rd party support is a bonus.
flyinpiranha
Member
Nintendo easily. Lukewarm reception and not a single "WOW" game in the mix. Although they are competing with 'current' gen systems graphically so that "WOW" factor will be hard to come by. SNES had Super Mario World, N64 had Super Mario 64, NGC had Rogue Squadron, the Wii U has nothing that really jumps out at me. Better than Wii games of course, but not better at what is being offered for the past few years. They really need to have a 3D Mario/Zelda/Kart ready for next holiday. Or something totally brand new to really rope people in.
MS has a lot of momentum and I imagine they'll announce some great 360 deal to make them fly off shelves after E3 in addition to announcing their new console. They 'may' blunder it like Sony did with the PS3 but if anything, MS seems to learn from their mistakes a little better than the others. They understand advertising and promotion and word of mouth more than any of them. How they handle XBLA and XBL accounts is going to be interesting, they need to have shit transfer so they can keep people in the ecosystem but they can't have newcomers feeling like they are starting in a race they can never win when it comes to achievements and such. Will be interesting.
Sony. Has a lot to prove. I think they did decent this generation regarding the PS3. Very expensive and it still practically caught up with 360 in sales even though MS had a year headstart. My problem personally is I just don't enjoy their 1st party as much as others. Plus I don't like the controller. I think they need to come out swinging and keep PSN FREE (Plus is a great idea). With the Vita ... it may be a slow burner. I think it needs a price drop as it's starting to get to the point where I want one, but I've only been cruising Craigslist because the asking price is too much for a portable. I think a price drop and a HUGE push in advertising would work wonders. Throw that shit in mall kiosks, Time magazine, promote it on FB, Amazon, whatever they AREN'T doing. It needs to be visible because I think it could do great if Sony admitted that it exists. Core games for people who already own one isn't going to make it sell.
MS has a lot of momentum and I imagine they'll announce some great 360 deal to make them fly off shelves after E3 in addition to announcing their new console. They 'may' blunder it like Sony did with the PS3 but if anything, MS seems to learn from their mistakes a little better than the others. They understand advertising and promotion and word of mouth more than any of them. How they handle XBLA and XBL accounts is going to be interesting, they need to have shit transfer so they can keep people in the ecosystem but they can't have newcomers feeling like they are starting in a race they can never win when it comes to achievements and such. Will be interesting.
Sony. Has a lot to prove. I think they did decent this generation regarding the PS3. Very expensive and it still practically caught up with 360 in sales even though MS had a year headstart. My problem personally is I just don't enjoy their 1st party as much as others. Plus I don't like the controller. I think they need to come out swinging and keep PSN FREE (Plus is a great idea). With the Vita ... it may be a slow burner. I think it needs a price drop as it's starting to get to the point where I want one, but I've only been cruising Craigslist because the asking price is too much for a portable. I think a price drop and a HUGE push in advertising would work wonders. Throw that shit in mall kiosks, Time magazine, promote it on FB, Amazon, whatever they AREN'T doing. It needs to be visible because I think it could do great if Sony admitted that it exists. Core games for people who already own one isn't going to make it sell.
I'd say Nintendo does in order to counter the hype that will be surrounding MS and possibly SONY. However, Nintendo are incapable of doing awesome E3's,or should I say, they consider E3 to be worth less than dog shit as far as core gamers go. Therefore, before E3 we will get some emotionless Nintendo Directs unveiling Megaton news with no supporting hype train from the gaming press and so it will be soon forgotten and overshadowed by the insane spectacle that will be E3.
Nintendo are slowly losing the plot IMO. I mean until recently I have never had a 360 (borrowing one) and I'm more excited about what MS are doing than I am about my Wii U.
Nintendo are slowly losing the plot IMO. I mean until recently I have never had a 360 (borrowing one) and I'm more excited about what MS are doing than I am about my Wii U.
StreetsAhead
Member
People saying/assuming that just announcing new consoles will be enough are amusing as there are dozens of things that Sony/Microsoft could do to kill hype, or at least dampen it (at least for me).
-Less than expected visual jump
-No (or limited) actual footage (CG only)
-Anti-used games policy
-2014 release date
-Overly focusing (10+ minutes demos) on 'casual' concepts like Kinect 2.0, Move, or Wonderbook.
-Increase in cost of basic online service (with/without noticable improvements to said service)
-Region locking
->US$400 for the 'basic model'
-'Sameness' about game concepts (Ridge Racer! Gears of War! Forza 99! Assassain Creed 3: Brotherlations etc)
-Unfavorably received new controllers (like Sony's Boomerang) or 'me too' tablet controllers.
-Lack of next-gen exclusive 3rd party titles (strong focus on 'cross-gen' games for the first Christmas)
-Stage demos working poorly
-Providing insufficient details
-Ungainly OS
-Awkward or glitchy stage demos
-Cringe-worthy presenters or presentations
And so on.
-Less than expected visual jump
-No (or limited) actual footage (CG only)
-Anti-used games policy
-2014 release date
-Overly focusing (10+ minutes demos) on 'casual' concepts like Kinect 2.0, Move, or Wonderbook.
-Increase in cost of basic online service (with/without noticable improvements to said service)
-Region locking
->US$400 for the 'basic model'
-'Sameness' about game concepts (Ridge Racer! Gears of War! Forza 99! Assassain Creed 3: Brotherlations etc)
-Unfavorably received new controllers (like Sony's Boomerang) or 'me too' tablet controllers.
-Lack of next-gen exclusive 3rd party titles (strong focus on 'cross-gen' games for the first Christmas)
-Stage demos working poorly
-Providing insufficient details
-Ungainly OS
-Awkward or glitchy stage demos
-Cringe-worthy presenters or presentations
And so on.
Goldenroad
Member
It seems like for Sony 2013 could be a very make-or-break year, in that if sales don't improve significantly, I can't see how they can move forward into next gen.
Sony needs online refinement and a competitive price for hardware. Software will be there, Vita will be dead.
Microsoft needs to NOT screw up. Its completely their ball to lose. Less focus on multimedia and kinect, the better.
Nintendo, God help them. Software barrage the likes no E3 has seen before it. It wont compete technically, so these games better bring the best of the best as far as artistic talent is concerned, along with compelling NEW ideas. No room whatsoever to be frugal Nintendo.
Microsoft needs to NOT screw up. Its completely their ball to lose. Less focus on multimedia and kinect, the better.
Nintendo, God help them. Software barrage the likes no E3 has seen before it. It wont compete technically, so these games better bring the best of the best as far as artistic talent is concerned, along with compelling NEW ideas. No room whatsoever to be frugal Nintendo.
Yeah I don't understand it either. You'd think with the last couple launches people would be more wary that the market simply isn't accepting anything expensive or possibly much at all. The idea of spec bumps being meaningful to anyone is almost laughable. Sony and MS need new propositions whether hardware or software, anything short of that is going to insta-fail (and it might anyway if the price isn't good enough).
I think Microsoft has the most to gain provided they hit those marks. I also think Nintendo doesn't give a shit about E3 and has nothing to prove there, they're their own press outlet now, it's all about the random Nintendo Directs.
flyinpiranha
Member
A vast majority of those things are going to happen so you will be disappointed. It's showing stuff that is not even in production or ready to be released so glithcy demos, cringe worth presenters (let's be honest here, if it's not Citizen Kane level of presentation GAF will call it a 'disaster' or 'trainwreck'), etc ... Of course they are probably going to push their own IPs as well as (hopefully) new ones.
But you are going to be in for disappointment because I think you just described every E3 since its inception, lol.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
I'm expecting all of the above because this is pretty much every E3, except I see MS releasing this year for sure, and I don't see Sony embracing region locking.
Part of me is kind of concerned that Sony won't even show their new console this year. This could only work out for them if MS announces a package that is more or less universally reviled, giving them time to make adjustments accordingly.
Haunted
Member
I think any combination of the bolded could be real deal breakers, yeah.
You don't think 599 was the biggest flaw in their strategy?
I think that a considerable graphical upgrade combined with an improved AI, some next gen gimmicks and a bunch of interesting launch titles will be enough for either Sony or MS to garner a bunch of hype.
Some of your concerns are understandable, while others are pretty common IMO.
Spec bumps are meaningful when there is an actual bump to be excited about. ;p
If Nintendo can get away with launching a system with marginal jumps in performance for $300, then the other two should be able to launch systems providing a good jump for $400-$500.