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[Cosmo Clock 21]

Cookie Clicker, obviously.

There are two Monster Hunter teams, one that works on mainline and one that works on the G titles, right? They should figure out how to squeeze in a third release per numbered title to give them more breathing room for drelopment.

 

[Busaiku]

Bingo. Nintendo banked everything on capitalizing and repeating their Wii success but let the platform die for two years, especially in Japan.

This has been Nintendo's biggest problem since N64, I don't understand why they keep making the same mistake over and over.

 

[Zalman]

The 3DS has been on fire this entire year, but the heavy hitters are all coming now. Monster Hunter 4 is doing exceptionally well, and a month from now we will see Pokémon do just as good. Very exciting times for the little handheld.

 

[frankie_baby]

Only 9 days left until its release and it is still out of the top 20 (below 25 preorders). Things are looking grim for this title.

Is there are hardware bundle and limited edition as in the west? If so sales could be split between the 3 of them, if not then ouch!

 

[Glass Rebel]

This has been Nintendo's biggest problem since N64, I don't understand why they keep making the same mistake over and over.

Iwata seems to be very bad at learning from his mistakes. It's actually surprising how naive and stubborn he can be.

 

[Thorgal]

Iwata seems to be very bad at learning from his mistakes. It's actually surprising how naive and stubborn he can be.

You would think someone over there thinks : this is not going to work and we will make the same mistakes again.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Hardware and software for 3DS are roughly 15% and 10% higher than my upper-range expectations respectively, pretty damn good figures right here. We'll see how it holds next week though.

 

[1st Course]

Only 9 days left until its release and it is still out of the top 20 (below 25 preorders). Things are looking grim for this title.

How long did it take Pikmin 3 to enter the top 20?

 

[Thorgal]

BTW . isn't the Sony TGS keynote starting in 5 hours ?

Not expecting anything but stranger things have happened .

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

It this rate it will. And I was talking about debuts anyways

Well debuts don't show you the full picture. The reason MHP3rd is seen so big because of its LTD not particularly its debut.

 

[Mpl90]

How long did it take Pikmin 3 to enter the top 20?

At the same amount of days before the release, Pikmin 3 was at 54-57pt.

 

[Glass Rebel]

At the same amount of days before the release, Pikmin 3 was at 54-57pt.

pack it up guys, it was fun

 

[sörine]

Well debuts don't show you the full picture. The reason MHP3rd is seen so big because of its LTD not particularly its debut.

It was both. 3rd was much more frontloaded than the other handheld games before and after it.

At the same amount of days before the release, Pikmin 3 was at 54-57pt.

Okay, now this is worrying. Do you know what Ocarina 3D was at on comg 9 days to launch?

 

[Busaiku]

Yeah, I do not see Wii U having a future in Japan.

 

[Sakura]

Why is AKB so low?

Because it's just a port of last year's game. Hopefully the low sales will tell them they should've made a new game for this year.

I'm looking over the list of 19 launch games for Japan. The only 3rd party exclusive Japanese developed game is "Dream Club: Host Girls on Stage". The rest are Western or multiplats.

So Sony delayed the console because launching without Host Girls on Stage is a bad idea?

It is launching with like 5 Japanese centric games. Sure, they may not all be exclusives, but it's better than launching without any isn't it?

 

[Pie and Beans]

Yeah, I do not see Wii U having a future in Japan.

Where exactly do you see it having a future though?

Vita's only lifeline is Japan really (maybe the UK, I dunno, it seems to do okayish here?), but I am wondering how its going to come back from the savage MonPokemon two-fer then some One Piece and Puzzle&Dragons for dessert.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Where exactly do you see it having a future though?

Vita's only lifeline is Japan really (maybe the UK, I dunno, it seems to do okayish here?), but I am wondering how its going to come back from the savage MonPokemon two-fer then some One Piece and Puzzle&Dragons for dessert.

There's a limit to how many Vitas SmokyDave can buy.

 

[QaaQer]

Because it's just a port of last year's game. Hopefully the low sales will tell them they should've made a new game for this year.


It is launching with like 5 Japanese centric games. Sure, they may not all be exclusives, but it's better than launching without any isn't it?

I hope you are right. I want the PS4 to blow up in Japan and herald a renaissance.

PS4's performance in Japan is going to be very interesting in that first year.

 

[1st Course]

At the same amount of days before the release, Pikmin 3 was at 54-57pt.

Not looking good for WW I guess.

 

[Jamix012]

Because it's just a port of last year's game. Hopefully the low sales will tell them they should've made a new game for this year.


It is launching with like 5 Japanese centric games. Sure, they may not all be exclusives, but it's better than launching without any isn't it?

What if I told you the entire launch library of the PS4 (as it stands now) will not outsell Super Mario Bros. U. I mean, it seems very unlikely to me. If we go from a "software moves hardware" perspective then I'm not seeing where all this optimism for the PS4 is coming from.

 

[MagicWithEarvin]

There's a limit to how many Vitas SmokyDave can buy.

Haha

 

[Chris1964]

It hasn't though. MHP3rd had some serious legs.

Full priced MHP3 sold the majority of its sales in one month (3,9m and it hit 4,5 in the end). It had huge weeks in December 2010 but after holidays ended it slowed down drastically. MH4 won't be able to follow next weeks but it will see bump at holidays.

 

[KillerMan91]

Has there been date for GTA V in Japan? GTA games have done always fairly well and after the IV the market for western games has grown so interested to see how big numbers V is able to pull.

 

[LayLa]

Vita's only lifeline is Japan really (maybe the UK, I dunno, it seems to do okayish here?

not really its had a disasterous 2013 in the UK so far, months go by without a game in the top 40, hardware was even being outsold by WiiU in the first half of the year iirc

 

[Sakura]

What if I told you the entire launch library of the PS4 (as it stands now) will not outsell Super Mario Bros. U. I mean, it seems very unlikely to me. If we go from a "software moves hardware" perspective then I'm not seeing where all this optimism for the PS4 is coming from.

I'm sorry, I wasn't trying to imply that PS4 launch software was going to sell well. Merely that I think launching with some number of Japanese games is better than not. As long as the system does PS3 numbers, I'll be happy.

 

[Mpl90]

It was both. 3rd was much more frontloaded than the other handheld games before and after it.


Okay, now this is worrying. Do you know what Ocarina 3D was at on comg 9 days to launch?

You don't really want to see it, believe me. This is why I'll put it in spoilers

Spoiler

[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 133pt
[WIIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 25pt / less than 25pt

 

[P90]

I guess this confirms that Nintendo is doomed and iOS/Android is the now and future of handheld games.

 

[vinnygambini]

You don't really want to see it, believe me. This is why I'll put it in spoilers

Spoiler

[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 133pt
[WIIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 25pt / less than 25pt

Wii U am cry

Nintendo knows how to market their handhelds effectively; home consoles however they have a lot of trouble as it is more geared towards a Western audience and they seem to be losing footing there every generation (Wii excluded). It demands a bigger investment and it seems Nintendo refuses to do so.

 

[Elfteiroh]

That and Smash Bros. But I'm concerned about how the 3DS version will affect Wii U. Sakurai implied the 3DS version may be released after Wii U's, and frankly that may not be a bad idea. Gotta sell some of those boxes somehow.

In Japan, the 3DS version will outsell the WiiU, it's not even a contest. By how much is the real question. (5:1? Most optimistic prediction from me...) WW, I would guess the WiiU version will be a system seller. But it could go both way... could be 2:1 for WiiU, but I doubt it.

 

[Busaiku]

Where exactly do you see it having a future though?

Vita's only lifeline is Japan really (maybe the UK, I dunno, it seems to do okayish here?), but I am wondering how its going to come back from the savage MonPokemon two-fer then some One Piece and Puzzle&Dragons for dessert.

Outside of Japan. it's getting a price drop and titles that could potentially move sysytems (The Legend of Zelda actually being popular in the US and Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze coming out this year as well).
There are also those rumored bundles and whatnot that could raise its appeal.

In Japan, nothing is changing.
No price drop, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze isn't hitting this year, and we don't really know what Nintendo has besides Super Mario 3D World.

 

[Nirolak]

To expand more on this Nintendo between others surely paid letting Wii dead for almost 2 years, same with Sony having PSP dead in west I don't remember since when. Wii U and Vita were successors of irrelevant systems. 3DS launched when DS was still very strong and that helped the famous 3DS turnaround (that wasn't that much of turnaround outside Japan).

That's probably the reason Vita still has a chance in Japan finding an audience and making Sony some money. But in west the system is finished. As for Wii U... let's just say Nintendo must be happy if it hits GameCube numbers.

Bingo. Nintendo banked everything on capitalizing and repeating their Wii success but let the platform die for two years, especially in Japan.

This is why I don't understand the opinion I sometimes see expressed on the forum of "Why release the new system? The old one is still selling."

That's usually the situation you want to release a new system under, because you have a bunch of happy customers instead of a bunch of unhappy customers.

It's also why I think even super popular systems like the 3DS should be replaced in year 5 or 6, even if it's still selling great in Japan, because given how it's currently doing in the West, it's unlikely to hold well (or at all) into years 7 and 8. It's not like Japanese consumers are likely to pass up the successor to a platform and hardware line they love.

Can you imagine if Sony had let the PS3 sit two more years? The PS4 would be completely toast.

 

[Chris1964]

Demon's Souls: 168,816
Dark Souls: 334,302 + 80,949

Superior tracker

Demon's Souls - 170.512
Demon's Souls (PlayStation 3 the Best) - 206.643

Dark Souls - 353.549
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition - 103.113

 

[Mokubba]

In Japan, the 3DS version will outsell the WiiU, it's not even a contest. By how much is the real question. (5:1? Most optimistic prediction from me...) WW, I would guess the WiiU version will be a system seller. But it could go both way... could be 2:1 for WiiU, but I doubt it.

it's the first time Smash is coming to a handheld right.
I can't seeing it doing more on the 3DS even with it's massive install base. People are geared towards smash on consoles than handhelds.

 

[DaBoss]

Superior tracker

Demon's Souls - 170.512
Demon's Souls (PlayStation 3 the Best) - 206.643

Dark Souls - 353.549
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition - 103.113

Haha, thank you.

 

[Phii]

Im so glad Killzone: Mercenary is still holding up, such a great game.

Also, damn 3DS is on fire! Leaves me wonder what the sales will be the week Pokémon releases.

 

[BlackJace]

I just find the apathy for everything but the 3DS and mobile games fascinating. Is this truly a long term shift in the market? Even outsiders can look at these numbers and conclude that Japan doesn't give a shit about anything but the 3DS at the moment.

Sure the Wii U will see some upticks when key software is dropped, but I just can't see it or the PS4 doing too hot over there in the long run.

Stranger things have happened though.

 

[Chris1964]

Zelda won't save Wii U, but Japan likes the franchise quite a bit. Ocarina of Time 3DS did around 600,000 which is more than any recent remake/remaster that isn't Dragon Quest or Pokémon related. I think Wind Waker HD is probably good for somewhere between 200,000 to 300,000.

Get ready for huge disappointment

What are people expectations for WW HD? Will it reach 100k on its first week?

Will it reack 100k LTD?

 

[sörine]

Get ready for huge disappointment

I already am after the preorder figures. Bracing for under 100,000.

 

[Lexxism]

What are people expectations for WW HD? Will it reach 100k on its first week?

 

[pieatorium]

What are people expectations for WW HD? Will it reach 100k on its first week?

30-40k fw eventually over 100k ltd in a year or so

 

[vinnygambini]

Get ready for huge disappointment



Will it reack 100k LTD?

That bad? :s

One would of thought that sales of 70k first week would be achievable no?

I mean damn New Super Luigi U already sold 100k in Japan if one includes Eshop sales + retail

 

[1st Course]

Crazy to think some people here were expecting 200k+ debut for WW. Going by its performance on COMG it will be lucky if it hit that figure LTD.

 

[Elfteiroh]

it's the first time Smash is coming to a handheld right.
I can't seeing it doing more on the 3DS even with it's massive install base. People are geared towards smash on consoles than handhelds.

In Japan, it will flat out not sell on WiiU. You can bet on it.
In the west, you may have a point, but it's hard to tell... If WiiU start selling more during the holidays, then ok, I can see it going 1:1 or even maybe 1:2 for it... But at the rate it's going right now, I'm bracing myself for that kind of surprise... But oh, yeah, the tournament guys and the hardcore will be buying it on WiiU. But they are a minority. The rest of the potential players could be interesting to watch.

 

[Infinite]

Well debuts don't show you the full picture. The reason MHP3rd is seen so big because of its LTD not particularly its debut.

None the less people said the game will debut lower than 3rd and that wasn't the case. That's the only thing I'm talking about here

 

[FreedomFighter]

Sucks WW isn't looking like it will do much. Nintendo have only themselves to blame. Don't know how they could've been so unprepared for the Wii U... especially after what happened with the 3DS (which were supposed to have learned from).

 

[Busaiku]

30-40k fw eventually over 100k ltd in a year or so

Has a The Legend of Zelda game ever tripled its debut without being in the bomba bin?

 

[zroid]

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  |     LTD     |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS # |    276.792 |  12.593.343 |
|  WII  |        962 |  12.697.913 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

it's happening

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Superior tracker

Demon's Souls - 170.512
Demon's Souls (PlayStation 3 the Best) - 206.643

Dark Souls - 353.549
Dark Souls: Prepare to Die Edition - 103.113

Demons souls did 376k. Am I reading that right?

None the less people said the game will debut lower than 3rd and that wasn't the case. That's the only thing I'm talking about here

Well, ignoring digital, it did. Most people expected between 1.5-1.8 so clearly the game exceeded expectations.

 

[Spiegel]

HARDWARE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|System | This Week  |     LTD     |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS # |    276.792 |  12.593.343 |
|  WII  |        962 |  12.697.913 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

it's happening

This made me remember about looking at PSP's LTD

| PSP # | 5.449 | 5.493 | 9.069 | 363.566 | 566.758 | 19.992.577

20M will happen in two weeks

 

[Magicpaint]

Skyward Sword barely hit 300k, so things are indeed looking grim for WW HD. Somewhere along the line, Japan just stopped caring about console Zelda.

Has a The Legend of Zelda game ever tripled its debut without being in the bomba bin?

Phantom Hourglass, Ocarina of Time 3D?