Revised Cost Estimate
Factoring in the branching paths, which significantly increase the resources needed, I estimate the cost of the CRS game in 1997 dollars to be $1,500,000 to $5,000,000. Here's the breakdown:
- Base Operation ($500,000–$1,000,000):
- Core elements: 20–50 actors ($1,000–$5,000/day each), sets ($50,000–$200,000), surveillance tech ($50,000–$100,000), psychological profiling ($10,000–$50,000), and logistics (e.g., vehicles, travel) for a multi-day operation.
- This aligns with the initial estimate but assumes a streamlined, "expected" path for Nicholas.
- Branching Paths Multiplier ($1,000,000–$4,000,000):
- Contingency planning for multiple decision points requires 2–4x the base resources. For example:
- Alternate locations and sets: $100,000–$500,000 per major branch (e.g., 5–10 branches).
- Additional personnel: $200,000–$1,000,000 for standby actors, techs, and coordinators.
- Redundant tech/props: $50,000–$200,000 per scenario for backups.
- If Nicholas has 5–10 major decision points, each with 2–3 possible outcomes, CRS must fund parallel setups, many of which go unused, inflating costs.
- Overhead and Profit ($500,000–$1,000,000):
- CRS's exclusivity and corporate structure suggest a high profit margin (e.g., 50–100% markup) for catering to billionaires like Nicholas.
- Administrative costs (e.g., planning, legal, and risk management) add another $100,000–$500,000.
Most Likely Cost: $2,500,000. This accounts for a sophisticated base operation ($750,000), doubled or tripled by branching paths ($1,500,000), plus CRS's premium overhead (~$250,000). It reflects the game's complexity, the need to anticipate Nicholas's unpredictability, and CRS's elite status, while staying plausible for a 1997 high-end service.
Reasoning for Range
- Low End ($1,500,000): Assumes fewer decision points (e.g., 5 branches) and leaner contingency plans, with CRS optimizing resources based on strong psychological profiling to predict Nicholas's choices.
- High End ($5,000,000): Assumes extensive branching (e.g., 10–15 decision points with 3–4 outcomes each), requiring massive redundant setups, personnel, and tech, akin to a small-scale intelligence operation or film production.
- Why Not Higher?: Costs above $5 million approach the budget of a 1997 mid-tier film, which seems excessive even for CRS's bespoke service, given the game's focused scope (one client, ~1 week).
- Why Not Lower?: The branching paths and CRS's ability to manipulate a billionaire's life (e.g., hacking accounts, staging crises) require resources far beyond a $500,000 operation, especially with contingencies.
Assumptions and Notes
- Branching Paths: I assume CRS plans for 5–15 major decision points, each with 2–4 possible outcomes, based on the film's depiction of Nicholas's proactive and skeptical nature. Each branch requires pre-funded resources (e.g., actors on standby, alternate locations), even if unused.
- 1997 Constraints: I'm using 1997 pricing for labor, tech, and services, avoiding modern inflation or tech assumptions (e.g., no advanced AI or drones). Surveillance and props reflect 1997 capabilities (e.g., analog cameras, basic hacking).
- No Film-Specific Data: The film doesn't provide a dollar amount for the bill, so this estimate extrapolates from the game's scope and reasonable assumptions about CRS's operations.
- Ignoring Conrad's Finances: Per your request, I'm not limiting the estimate based on Conrad's ability to pay, allowing for a higher cost reflective of CRS's full effort.