Yes if its possible for sony to produce that manySo… GTA6 is going to move 32.9 Million of PS5 comsoles in one year? According to your calculations…
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Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Circana Jan 2026: #1 PS5 (-17%), #2 NSW2, #3 XBS (-27%), #4 NSW (-79%) / #1 CoD BO7, #11 Code Vein 2
LordOcidax
Member
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ShadowkillXNA
Member
You keep right on thinking that, Dorothy.
Don't forget to close youre eyes while you chant it.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Probably a lot but then again GTA6 is very worth it. The number of people that game alone can bring into the ecosystem probably justifies any costs.
apple_of_enlightenment
Member
Great Nintendo numbers for a January, winning overall.
LordOcidax
Member
You are expecting 32 Million of Ps5 sold in one year too?
You keep right on thinking that, Dorothy.
Don't forget to close youre eyes while you chant it.
The most important question is how much do you think it will sell in 1 year?Jesus Christ, sometimes i really don't know if some of you are joking or not…
LordOcidax
Member
GTA6 probably between 40 - 50 Million first month. If the game comes out in November… The PS5 sold around 725K Million in Nov 2025 so 1.3M ~ 1.5M for that month.
I mean overall full year span ps5 console sales, like mine "32M+"
kazuyamishima
Member
The most impact from GTA VI will come from Europe and RoTw.
It's been 13 years without a new GTA
It's been 13 years without a new GTA
I think you need to take a step back & think about how big 32 million consoles in a year is.
It would take absolute pandemonia for a $399 + console to sell 32 million in a year , like people going crazy buying them soon as they hit the shelves
TheMule1983
Member
People are vastly over estimating how many consoles gta will sale. It's year 6 for these machines. Most people who will buy gta day one already have the console they need.
Varteras
Member
To be fair, there are at least 3 people in my typical gaming group of 8 friends who don't own a console right now who plan to buy a PS5 Pro for GTA. Not including me but I haven't decided yet. That's merely anecdotal, sure. But, I'm pretty sure there are plenty of people out there in a similar situation. Some people are being absurd, though.
Too many uncertainties In the industry to make sales predictions right now because it's not even in the console makers hands. .
Damn ok guys don't say anything its my fault asking for just for fun predictions. I will take the make fun of brave stupid predictions bullets.
To promote a third party game with a bundle? Nothing. Why would that be an expensive deal? Do you even think being able to promote GTA6 on xbox is that valuable to Take Two?
{insert code here}
Member
J Required
Gold Member
That number is anything but realistic. GTA6 will definitely sell a lot, and it will have a positive carry-over effect on PS5 and Xbox sales through the rest of the generation.
What's surprising is that, outside of its launch months, Switch 2 failed to outsell the PS5 in North America — a major market for Nintendo — and outside Japan the situation is even worse. We said this early on, and people laughed at it.
Huh?
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
It's not lol
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
My prediction is 18 million for the full year GTA6 is out.
You was the second guy that gave me no prediction for full year after asking. That was the joke response to it.
yea ps5 sales are not even that great. ps4 in 2019 sales started to really fall of hard in the US, and ps5 is basically in the same year where ps4 was.
yea that what i'm thinking as well.
When do you expect switch 2 to drop under the switch 1 sales curve?
Im going to say 20 million and fairly decent amount of Pros versus amateurs. I could see Pro perhaps being hard to find depending on how many Sony has available in the channel. Maybe they'll have pre-orders for pro+gta6 to gauge demand.
Mozza
Member
Once again more console warring rubbish, the Switch 2 will be another 100 million plus seller for Nintendo, and who cares how you slice the cake, Of course the Switch 2 has only been on the market for around eight months and is on track to sell at least 19 million consoles this year. The fact Playstation station systems sell over 100 million units should not be that much of a surprise as the Xbox has pretty much gone AWOL so they have no competition in the hardcore space, and it would be a pretty poor show if they did not sell at least a 100 million units.Yup, we are in NPD thread. Sony consistently sells +100m units for all their consoles without relying on NA and JP.
Nintendo in the other hand:
I think a lot of the Sony fanboys have never got over the PS3 generation where Sony had a tough battle with Microsoft, and even though Nintendo where not competing in the same market they sold around 250 million consoles in that particular generation. And of course ethe massive success of the Switch does not sit with them either lol.
And of course nobody seems to be factoring in the tough economic conditions for all console companies and also the fact Nintendo have not really showcased many of their big franchises as yet.... very early days.
Light_Crusader25
Member
I'm a Nintendo fanboy. But even I can't deny there's a slow-down in hype.
The next Direct needs to showcase more than what's coming in the next half a year, it needs to show audiences and people like me what awesome future the console will have.
The fact that Nintendo released a sub-par trash like MP4, doesn't make me confident that they are at the top of their game. DKB is really the single great game on the console rn.
apple_of_enlightenment
Member
Yep Nintendo need a huge game this year. They don't want a steamroller effect from grand theft.
J Required
Gold Member
PS5 is practically the only console in history that launched under the absolute worst economic conditions imaginable. Two full years of COVID-driven shortages, global supply-chain bottlenecks, volatile material costs that inflated the BoM and even forced a rare mid-gen price hike, and now a global RAM crunch — yet despite all of this, PlayStation still managed to keep pace with PS4 and deliver exceptional sales. I don't think people give Sony enough credit for pulling that off.
If anything, it's a testament to just how enormous and resilient the PlayStation brand truly is.
Mozza
Member
I am not suggesting sales are slower, but we are totally ignoring the economic climate, and the fact the console launched with lots of stock. This will make the initial period busier, but will loose the impetus for the core Switch owners to rush out and upgrade, as they can pretty much get a console whenever they want. The pricing is also a massive factor with this, existing Switch owners can take more time to save for the new console.
I do agree we need a general direct, but Nintendo did launch the console with their biggest and most accessible franchise. But like I said we do need to see more.
Mozza
Member
Sony have done amazing with the PS5, but you do fail to see how mass shortages can drive demand. Sony did get stock out there during the pandemic, the reason you could not buy this easily from stores was most sales where online, and scalper bots bought up a huge chunk of the stock. You are simply not comparing apples with apples.
There was a financial crisis in 2008-9, and Wii was selling gangbusters. Same as covid. If anything a bad economy is a driver for people to stay home and entertain themselves.
Nintendo mentioned themselves they expected more out of the holidays. There's def a slow-down in momentum, and they need to address it with content.
Radical_3d
Member
Yeah. And that came back to bite us in the bottom very quickly.
J Required
Gold Member
How so?
Mozza
Member
Very different things to be honest. People where off during the pandemic and where still being paid. They could not go away for trips etc, and to be fair where bored to death at home. So it was a case of the proverbial money burning a hole in their pockets scenario. The current climate is a lot different, where basically everything has increased since the pandemic. Videogames are a luxury that many can simply do without. I am surprised to be honest at it's price point and in the current climate the Switch 2 has sold as well as it has, and is still on target for it's yearly projections, that where increased.
A direct and more exposure can only help matters, I would imagine Nintendo will be timing the next 3D Mario game announcement with the release of the latest Mario Bros movie, and of course this title will be a Switch 2 exclusive.
Radical_3d
Member
Liverpool, Evolution, Japan, BluePoint the career of the guy that made Pupeteer, Fumito Ueda, one generation lost to GaaS… they behave like dicks and still no consequences. But consequences come after the public has a taste of the product. That's why after the magnificent FFVII the next one sold more. And that's why the disastrous FFVIII the IX sold less. We'll see…
Astral_lion02
Neo Member
If you want other guess/estimates, Vgchartz have these numbers for USA:
Jan 2026:
PS5: 188k
NS2: 179k
XBS: 72k
NSW: 28k
Jan 2025:
PS5: 243k
NSW: 125k
XBS: 124k
For Jan 2026, Vgchartz have everything slightly lower but it remain roughly on the same ranges.
Welfare have it's own method for sales estimates and he stick to that no matter what.
From the actual NPD data I have (annual yearly USA hardware from 2012 to 2024) Welfare initial yearly estimates were pretty good for 2023 and 2024 while 2022 was off (XBS and Switch were overtracked and PS5 undertracked).
For 2025 I will again have to wait an eternity before getting numbers but I doubt it's going to be much off compare to his estimates.
So over a long period at least Welfare is ok.
J Required
Gold Member
You're saying this happens because of Sony's success, but that's not necessarily true. It happens to Microsoft, and it happens to every major publisher — successful or not.
At the end of the day, most closures come down to the financial performance of the games being developed. I don't agree with many of these decisions, but people love to frame it as a black-and-white issue with zero nuance. No grey area whatsoever.
Take Sony, for example: they funded Fumito Ueda's game for nearly ten years. Ten years. Not a single nerd gave them credit for that. They're one of the few publishers willing to back lesser-known studios until they get their footing, and they don't even demand exclusivity — look at Stellar Blade, Kena, even Kojima's projects. Yet you barely see any praise for that on gaming forums.
And of course, like any publisher, they're not innocent or free of mistakes. But at the very least, we should balance criticism by acknowledging the positives as well — something that rarely happens here or on gaming forums in general, which tend to drown everything in negativity. And again, this applies to everyone, not just Sony.
What I'm trying to say is this: as a consumer, Sony has given me a great platform. One that gets all the big games, has solid online services, future-proof tech, VR support, and so on. People even mocked them for using a standard M.2 drive instead of a custom solution — meanwhile they're the only console maker still offering physical media on all their systems. They're selling their hardware cheaper than every equivalent option on the market: PS5 Pro vs Series X, PS5 vs Series S, even compared to Switch 1/2.
So yes, they're not perfect. None of them are. But in terms of overall value, features, and consumer-friendly decisions, they're the best of the big three.
Goalus
Member
Nintendo is the wrong platform though if the goal is to save money.
it's the right platform if you wanna entertain more than yourself at home.
Goalus
Member
Can't confirm this.
Can we stop with this weak argument. switch 1 has a freaking user base of near 50 million in the US. of course it was gonna have a huge launch, comparing it to switch 1 which coming off 3ds and wiiu which were both had very weak sales in the US. the nintendo brand was at its weakest, and switch 1 was still sold out. having healthy stock should not be a excuse for weak sales during the holidays especially when you consider it was up against dead xbox and a expensive ps5 while switch 1 was up against ps4 and xbox that both 199$ both did amazing numbers during the holidays. launch buyers are enthusiasts for a console that did 155 million and took 8 years to come out it should have little effect on holidays. its pretty clear that the gaming market is declining, and yes consoles are more expensive but so is everything else.
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