Microsoft's last two decisions regarding the X360 hardware configuration largely had to do with business and not software optimization for the end user.
1) 256MB->512MB of RAM without increasing the speed of the disc reader (still 12x dvd, right?). Regardless, it'll take twice as long as before to load all of that into the RAM, so for the lion's share of games that use that extra RAM for higher quality texturing, you're going to see almost linear growth in load times. Even though it will negatively affect load times in all games, this was a concession made to game DEVELOPERS as well as to marketers, because it's clear that the 360 needs to keep up with the Sony Joneses on this mark. The RAM will get cheaper, but the added load times were a known gaff that'll be around for good.
2) Having an HDD-less configuration even possible. By requiring developers to make their games run without the hard drive, but not offering an automatic in-hardware hard drive-aware caching system, the result will be longer load times for everyone, not just those without the hard drive. Caching shit to the hard drive is a complicated process, and it's one that's further compounded by the fact that people are going to be able to rip out their hard drive at will (so long as the game isn't saving), and the system has to be able to
respond without missing a beat. That means you can't really cache anything that's mission critical that isn't on the disk (such as variable data for swap space) without making the hard drive non-removable during game play.
The ability to cache information to the HDD will be so impossible to optimize well, that I doubt we'll ever see it as efficiently as it was done on the Xbox. The good news is that with 512MB of RAM, it'll be far less necessary, but not having that free swap space as virtual memory (I can't imagine that they could use it as normal swap, unless they're going to warn the user that they can't remove the hard drive without powering the system down).
Yeah, I think minute-plus load times are probably just going to be the norm for initial game boot-up, regardless of hard drive.
Clever developers will ensure that after the initial load, subsequent loading is streamed efficiently without interruptions to gameplay, but lazy developers will probably stack multiple gigantic loads between areas.
Just something you have to live with when you don't have a guaranteed swap available, and have to be constantly filling up a whopping 512MB of memory off the disc.