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[UbiSoftologist]

Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan comments on video-game sales in August::

We expect NPD Funworld TRSTS U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of August (fourweek period ending August 28, 2004) to be released on Monday, September 13, after the market close...

...After the traditionally slow summer months, sales typically begin to build in August and September heading into the holiday season, with monthly variations based on the quality and quantity of games released. We expect this trend to continue in 2004, and forecast sales of $360 million (up 8% vs. August 2003’s $334 million).

Comparable sales for the last two months were up following three consecutive months of year-over-year declines. We continue to be optimistic that strong holiday sales will allow the U.S. console software market to deliver 10% year-over-year growth (up from 5% in 2003). We note that year-to-date unit sales are up 6%, while ASPs have declined by only 1% (compared to our full-year forecast of a 12% decline). We believe that there is a good possibility that ASPs will stay relatively flat over the remainder of the year, given the likelihood for strong sales of several full-priced blockbuster titles later in the year.

The U.S. hardware installed base is currently at 63 million current generation consoles (including the GBA) as of the end of July 2004 (up from 56 million at year end 2003) and we forecast it to grow to 77 million by the end of 2004. We expect console prices to remain stable for the balance of the year (current U.S. prices are Nintendo GameCube $99, Microsoft Xbox $149, and Sony PS2 $149), with the next round of cuts likely early next year. We expect some momentum in handhelds in September, as Nintendo recently cut the price of the GBA SP from $99 to $79. We also expect a strong unit contribution from Nintendo’s DS, expected out this holiday season.

In August, we expect continued strong sales of Activision’s Spider-Man 2 (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC), Atari’s DRIV3R (PS2 and Xbox), Electronic Arts’ NCAA Football 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC), and Take-Two’s ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2, Xbox). The top August releases should be Activision’s Doom III (PC) and Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PSX, GBA, PC). We note that there were 10 games that sold over 100,000 units in July, and we expect eight in August (compared to nine last year).

This note provides our forecast for the six publishing companies we cover, with comments about major titles released during the month, estimates for unit sales of these titles, and estimates for catalog sales of titles released in prior months. All dollar amounts represent retail sales, and should not be interpreted as revenues for the publishers of the games.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

The following are specific publisher comments by Wedbush Morgan:

On Activision's sales performance in August:

Activision (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)

Releases during August: 8/3 Doom III (PC), 8/31 Cabela's Deer Hunt 2005 (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Activision generated approximately $28 million in sales for the month (compared with $51 million last month and $9 million last August). We expect that Spider-Man 2 sold 250,000 units combined in its third month (on top of the 1.3 million units sold so far). We expect Shrek 2, Tony Hawk and other catalog games to sell well. Our estimates do not include Doom III sales, as this is a PC game and our analysis in this report focuses on console games.

On EA:

Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy)

Releases during August: 8/9 Madden NFL 2005 (PS2, Xbox, GC, PSX, GBA, PC), 8/31 NASCAR 2005: Chase for the Cup (PS2, Xbox, GC).

We estimate that EA generated $140 million in sales for the month (compared with $78 million last month and $121 million last August). We expect sales to be led by Madden NFL 2005, which we believe sold 2.1 million units combined. We expect NCAA Football 2005 to have sold another 200,000 units combined (on top of the 806,000 units sold last month). It should be noted that most of the upside in year-over-year sales of the NCAA Football title was attributable to an increase in sales of the Xbox version, which we believe is a consequence of Electronic Arts’ decision to support the Xbox Live service this year. We anticipate that sales of Madden will be up only 5% on PS2 and up over 100% on Xbox, leading us to our 2.1 million-unit forecast. We expect to see continued strong sales of Fight Night, James Bond, NFL Street, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor as well as from NBA Live, SSX, Harry Potter, Madden NFL, NCAA Football, Tiger Woods Golf, and NASCAR Thunder.

On Take-Two Interactive:

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)

Releases during August: 8/31 The Guy Game (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $20 million in sales for the month (compared with $26 million last month and $11 million last August). We believe that ESPN NFL 2K5 sold 450,000 units combined in its second month of release (on top of the 792,000 units sold last month), and expect no contribution in August from The Guy Game, which shipped after the close of the retail month. We expect that catalog sales were lead by Red Dead Revolver, Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm

 

[Wario64]

Madden 2005 - 2.1 million units :O

 

[Mrbob]

100% increase in sales. Now there is a good reason to go online.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

I think Pachter is overly bearish on the sales of ESPN NFL 2k5 in August.

 

[DJ Demon J]

Wait, so ESPN sold 1.2 million combined and Madden sold 2.1 million combined? Am I reading that right? That's a lot closer than I expected them to be.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

Wait, so ESPN sold 1.2 million combined and Madden sold 2.1 million combined? Am I reading that right? That's a lot closer than I expected them to be.

and why not? One's for the skinty mainstreamer and the other for the madden/football fannut that needs the yearly update. I'd say the dollar value is more indicative of value (and I think those are just sales unit numbers) hence it doesn't really apply does it.

Madden could be 2.1 mil x $45
ESPN 1.2 x 25?

big difference

 

[UbiSoftologist]

Wait, so ESPN sold 1.2 million combined and Madden sold 2.1 million combined? Am I reading that right? That's a lot closer than I expected them to be.

I expect ESPN 2k5 to sell through 550k - 600k units in August

 

[DarienA]

and why not? One's for the skinty mainstreamer and the other for the madden/football fannut that needs the yearly update. I'd say the dollar value is more indicative of value (and I think those are just sales unit numbers)

Kudos to Take Two if that 1.x # is correct.. but... they did release what 3 weeks before Madden and at the reduced price point? So while the #'s are up which is a good thing because you get the product in consumers hands, the profit on is potentially down.

What I'm more interested in is getting a breakdown of Madden regular vs. Madden Collector's edition which was what $10 more?

 

[DJ Demon J]

and why not? One's for the skinty mainstreamer and the other for the madden/football fannut that needs the yearly update. I'd say the dollar value is more indicative of value (and I think those are just sales unit numbers) hence it doesn't really apply does it.

Madden could be 2.1 mil x $45
ESPN 1.2 x 25?

big difference

Hey, I'm not ragging on Sega or anything, I'm just shocked...good for them, I hope sales continue and the Madden giant is taken down a notch or two. We need competition in sports video games.

 

[Mrbob]

Wedbush undervalued ESPNs sales last month. I'm inclined to think they did it again this month. 800K in 10 days and then 450K the following 30? I do not believe it. Not for a budget priced sports game.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

On THQ:

THQ (THQI—Hold)

Releases during August: 8/31 WWE Day of Reckoning (GC).

We estimate that THQ generated $16 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $17 million last month and $16 million last August). WWE Day of Reckoning was also released outside of the retail month, so we expect no contribution to August results. We expect continued strong sales of MX Unleashed, WWE, Nickelodeon, Finding Nemo, and Tak and the Power of JuJu titles. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA SP sales for the rest of the year. We estimate that THQ had 18 titles sell over 10,000 units during the month, compared to 18 titles last August.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

I can imagine Americans plonking the $20+ they save by picking up ESPN for McDonalds/fried chicken for a bit of post play chow.

 

[OG_Original Gamer]

On THQ:

DOR is seems to be doing well, the local GameCrazy said they sold atleast 40 copies on release. The commercial seem to have gotten a good number of gamers off of their couches.

 

[sonycowboy]

OK, eight games over 100k.

1) Madden PS2
2) Madden Xbox
3) ESPN PS2
4) ESPN Xbox
5) NCAA 2005 PS2
6) Spider-Man 2 PS2
7) NCAA 2005 Xbox
8) ??? - (Spider-man 2 Xbox, Driver PS2, Some GBA Game, ???)

It's quite possible that the top 6 games will ALL be football games. Spider-Man 2 seems to be the only game that could break the string. This would be the first time anything like that has ever happened to my memory. Amazing.

 

[AirBrian]

It's quite possible that the top 6 games will ALL be football games.

That would be nuts! We do like the football.

 

[Chibbi Brady]

Pikmin 2 perhaps. How many days did it have to sell?

 

[DrLazy]

Doom III

 

[UbiSoftologist]

OK, eight games over 100k.

1) Madden PS2
2) Madden Xbox
3) ESPN PS2
4) ESPN Xbox
5) NCAA 2005 PS2
6) Spider-Man 2 PS2
7) NCAA 2005 Xbox
8) ??? - (Spider-man 2 Xbox, Driver PS2, Some GBA Game, ???)

I expect 9 SKUs selling over 100k units in August:

1-7) Ditto

8) Spider-Man 2 Xbox

9) Athens 2004 PS2

 

[Mooreberg]

Doom III

NPD doesn't cover PC game SKUs. I'm not even sure which group or company does.

 

[DJ Demon J]

NPD doesn't cover PC game SKUs. I'm not even sure which group or company does.

NPD soon will, they're in the process of combining their NPD FunWorld and TechWorld divisions to cover PC gaming. Before that, I think PC games were tracked under the same system that did PC applications software sales data...

Edit: ...which was PCData, now owned by NPD (www.pcdata.com points to NPD TechWorld).

 

[sonycowboy]

NPD soon will, they're in the process of combining their NPD FunWorld and TechWorld divisions to cover PC gaming. Before that, I think PC games were tracked under the same system that did PC applications software sales data...

Edit: ...which was PCData, now owned by NPD (www.pcdata.com points to NPD TechWorld).

NPD does cover PC sales through PCData. They just don't overlap with the TRSTS reports. In fact, the PC reports are weekly whereas the TRSTS reports are monthly.

 

[FitzOfRage]

NPD doesn't cover PC game SKUs. I'm not even sure which group or company does.

They do track PC games (they try to track almost anything sold in stores), but either no one here has access to those numbers, or no one cares to post them.

 

[DJ Demon J]

They just don't overlap with the TRSTS reports. In fact, the PC reports are weekly whereas the TRSTS reports are monthly.

This is what is changing; NPD is going to make the PC reports concurrent with the TRSTS reports. Our PR numbers guy has up-to-the-minute access to NPD numbers and was showing me some interesting stuff. Funny how little some games sell...

 

[sonycowboy]

This is what is changing; NPD is going to make the PC reports concurrent with the TRSTS reports. Our PR numbers guy has up-to-the-minute access to NPD numbers and was showing me some interesting stuff. Funny how little some games sell...

I'm surprised they've been able to keep the PC reports monthly this long. TRSTS was weekly up until March of 2002, but the retailers simply weren't willing to keep providing them so frequently, although just creating an output file of your sales seems trivial.

I've never really looked into the differences between the sources and if they overlap by alot, it's unfortunate that there is a retailer out there that NPD considers important enough that they have to delay reporting just because that retailer isn't willing to put in a little extra work.

 

[puck1337]

Pikmin 2 perhaps. How many days did it have to sell?

None for this report.

 

[Chi-Town]

I'd also expect that Rainbow 6:Black Arrow did over 100,000.