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[Draugoth]

Replying to an article that spotlighted Microsoft's underestimation of Baldur's Gate 3, Douse noted that "everyone else" had also done the same.

"Same with [Divinity: Original Sin 2]... There just isn't any existing data that could have told anyone how [Baldur's Gate 3] was going to perform,"

Douse stated.

"We just had to take giant spooky leaps."

These giant spooky leaps have worked wonders for the studio, with Baldur's Gate 3 receiving scores of praise across the board from the media and players. In our own four star review, contributor Ruth Cassidy said Baldur's Gate 3 "achieves its quest to be Tabletop Roleplaying: The Video Game, with a to-and-fro of distinctive scenes that invite you to pay attention to them, and reward you generously for responding thoughtfully".

 

[Elder Legend]

Larian Studios are a diamond in the rough. Amazing devs. Others should aspire to be like them.

 

[Little Chicken]

Sorry but this is fucking stupid.

"Second-run" means that it isn't launching on Xbox, was originally going to launch on Stadia, I presume, as a timed exclusive.

The Xbox launch would be the "second run".

They didn't mean "second rate", as the moronic "journalist" thinks.

 

[jorgejjvr]

Sorry but this is fucking stupid.

"Second-run" means that it isn't launching on Xbox, was originally going to launch on Stadia, I presume, as a timed exclusive.

The Xbox launch would be the "second run".

They didn't mean "second rate", as the moronic "journalist" thinks.

This

I hate fake narratives

 

[docchicken]

Sorry but this is fucking stupid.

"Second-run" means that it isn't launching on Xbox, was originally going to launch on Stadia, I presume, as a timed exclusive.

The Xbox launch would be the "second run".

They didn't mean "second rate", as the moronic "journalist" thinks.

They also proposed to pay a paltry 5 million dollars for a day 1 gamepass launch. That would have been a painful hole in Larian's potential earnings given its runaway success on PC *and* PS5 to date.

This is the underestimating of BG3. Good thing the deal was never floated to them. It would have been tragic.

So yes, MS was underestimating BG3.

 

[Little Chicken]

They also proposed to pay a paltry 5 million dollars for a day 1 gamepass launch. That would have been a painful hole in Larian's potential earnings given its runaway success on PC *and* PS5 to date.

This is the underestimating of BG3. Good thing the deal was never floated to them. It would have been tragic.

So yes, MS was underestimating BG3.

Maybe next time Microsoft will consult their crystal ball when making initial valuations

 

[Doom85]

Maybe next time Microsoft will consult their crystal ball when making initial valuations

Well, let’s see here:

-Baldur’s Gate is an established IP
-Dungeons and Dragons is bigger than it’s ever been. Things like Critical Role and Stranger Things have helped push awareness even more, and the last few years have had the D&D TTRP books break sales records of the IP’s lifetime
-Act 1 has been in EA for three years, and virtually everyone was singing its praises.

You‘re right, Microsoft had zero reason to believe this game could be a success.

 

[Little Chicken]

Well, let’s see here:

-Baldur’s Gate is an established IP
-Dungeons and Dragons is bigger than it’s ever been. Things like Critical Role and Stranger Things have helped push awareness even more, and the last few years have had the D&D TTRP books break sales records of the IP’s lifetime
-Act 1 has been in EA for three years, and virtually everyone was singing its praises.

You‘re right, Microsoft had zero reason to believe this game could be a success.

It's a release of a game that would've already been released exclusive on another platform/s for an unknown amount of time.

They can only make a valuation based on the performance of Larian's last title.

There's nothing stopping a dev from negotiating for more money.

Case in point: Game doesn't seem to be doing exceptionally well on it's second-run release on PS5, does it.

 

[mejin]

Larian is a true "good Guy"

 

[Nothing1234]

Maybe next time Microsoft will consult their crystal ball when making initial valuations

Microsoft are always on the wrong side of things in gaming that need foresight. See GTA3 and Genshin Impact for two examples.

 

[docchicken]

Maybe next time Microsoft will consult their crystal ball when making initial valuations

Maybe they should re-evaluate their in-house review estimations, where they assessed Redfall getting a 70-80% review aggregate score.

Seems they just aren't able to vet quality.

 

[Mister Wolf]

Their own owner grossly misjudged how much the game would sell.

 

[Guilty_AI]

There just isn’t any existing data that could have told anyone how BG3 was going to perform

I think that is the main issue many big developers have. Way too much reliance on trends and powerpoints.

 

[Doom85]

Case in point: Game doesn't seem to be doing exceptionally well on it's second-run release on PS5, does it.

Baldur's Gate 3 Is Now Number One In PS5 Pre-Order Sales - Gameranx

Following its successful launch on PC, Baldur's Gate 3 is now the best selling pre-order item on PlayStation 5.

gameranx.com

 

[Neilg]

They can only make a valuation based on the performance of Larian's last title.

Yeah but divinity os2 sold 7.5m

 

[justiceiro]

I guess they already updated the value that will cost to bring to game pass now.

 

[mckmas8808]

Microsoft are always on the wrong side of things in gaming that need foresight. See GTA3 and Genshin Impact for two examples.

And Spiderman

 

[EDMIX]

It's a release of a game that would've already been released exclusive on another platform/s for an unknown amount of time.

They can only make a valuation based on the performance of Larian's last title.

There's nothing stopping a dev from negotiating for more money.

Case in point: Game doesn't seem to be doing exceptionally well on it's second-run release on PS5, does it.

I get both of your points, as sure writing was on the wall that BG3 could be a hit, but I agree with Little on this one.

This is a surprise hit as I don't really know if I could say, for sure we'd see such a massive turn out on Steam, tons of perfect scores and records being broken by the team in terms of sales to this degree. Now I don't know how well its selling on PS5, but you have a point about all MS or anyone can do prior to release is judge them based on their last title.

So they can ask for more money for BG4 or Divinity Sin 3 etc.

 

[Meicyn]

Honestly mountain out of a molehill. Remember, Sony passed up on Demon’s Souls.

 

[bitbydeath]

It’s clearly a AAA game with AAA features.
I don’t know why anyone thought that wouldn’t sell. It’s exactly why Sony first party games are so popular.

 

[darrylgorn]

Is Larian just a bunch of gigachads or something?

 

[bitbydeath]

Remember, Sony passed up on Demon’s Souls.

Back to the alternate dimension with you.

 

[Crayon]

If we get to that all subscription future. Many, many games are going to be underestimated.

 

[Bruno_Arrais85]

and Phil said Redfall was aimed to be a 9/10 game based on internal tests

 

[AutumnLeaves]

Case in point: Game doesn't seem to be doing exceptionally well on it's second-run release on PS5, does it.

Where, exactly, are you getting this from?

 

[SirKicksalot]

They also proposed to pay a paltry 5 million dollars for a day 1 gamepass launch. That would have been a painful hole in Larian's potential earnings given its runaway success on PC *and* PS5 to date.

This is the underestimating of BG3. Good thing the deal was never floated to them. It would have been tragic.

So yes, MS was underestimating BG3.

They did not propose anything. That was a list exploring what they might pay for Gamepass titles. BG3 was revealed in a Stadia conference which is why it was not considered expensive to get.

 

[Orbital2060]

In their defence.. lmao

Yeah, in their defence, Xbox never said that and the whole thing is based on a false premise.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Larian Studios are a diamond in the rough. Amazing devs. Others should aspire to be like them.

More like “Other devs hate this European studio!”.

 

[Kilau]

Lots were sleeping on this game until the bear fucking.

 

[Virex]

Honestly mountain out of a molehill. Remember, Sony passed up on Demon’s Souls.

They did? Why do they own the IP and pay for it's development? They passed up on publishing it outside of Japan.

 

[Hudo]

Sony passed up on Demon’s Souls.

Shuhei Yoshida even shat on the game at first.

 

[WX3]

Lots were sleeping on this game until the bear fucking.

Very true. Wasn't on my radar. Bear fucking... became instant purchase.

 

[SmurfMustard]

"Second-run" means that it isn't launching on Xbox, was originally going to launch on Stadia, I presume, as a timed exclusive.

The Xbox launch would be the "second run".

They didn't mean "second rate", as the moronic "journalist" thinks.

This so much. All that warring is making people stupid. Even "journalists" fail when they see a chance to jump on the bandwagon.

 

[The Inventor]

Ok, then...where is my damn Series X version?