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[Broshnat]

Dengeki have just released their charts for the last couple of weeks.

Highlights include:

Dec 20-26th

1 DQ & FF in Itadaki Street Special PS2 190k
2 Super Mario 64 DS 143k (401k total)
3 Metal Gear Solid 3 PS2 116k (612k total)
4 Dragon Quest VIII PS2
5 Sawaru: Made In Wario DS
6 Mario Party 6 GC
7 Yoshi: Universal Gravitation GBA
8 Rockman EXE 5 Team Of Blues GBA
9 Pokmon Emerald GBA
10 Kessen III PS2 78k

DS 332k (1,139k total)
PSP 102k (365k total)

It also comments on how long it has taken various consoles to pass a million (edit: from launch):

GBA 3 weeks
DS 4 weeks
PS2 4 weeks
GBASP 13 weeks
GC 16 weeks
N64 17 weeks
PS and SS 33 weeks
DC 45 weeks



Dec 27- Jan 2

1 Gran Turismo 4 692k
2 Sawaru: Made In Wario DS
3 Super Mario 64 DS
4 To Heart 2 PS2 81k
5 Dragon Quest VIII PS2
6 Metal Gear Solid 3 PS2
7 DQ & FF in Itadaki Street Special PS2
8 Rockman EXE 5 Team Of Blues GBA
9 Mario Party 6 GC
10 Tales of Rebirth PS2


DS 188k (1,327k total)
PSP 122k (487k total)

 

[AniHawk]

Meh. Media-Create's where it's at.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Meh. Media-Create's where it's at.

I agree, but thanks Broshnat.

BTW, GBA SP's and GBA's million number should be switched. I doubt it'd take the GBA only 3 weeks to hit a million.

 

[Broshnat]

Well Dengeki seems to be halfway between Famitsu and Media Create. So if you average them (which surely makes most sense) you get Dengeki

Like last week's DS sales:

Famitsu 260k
Dengeki 330k
Media Create 400k

 

[Broshnat]

I agree, but thanks Broshnat.

BTW, GBA SP's and GBA's million number should be switched. I doubt it'd take the GBA only 3 weeks to hit a million.

It did.

It did about 610k in it's first week, then 250k, then about 150k.

 

[Spiritreaver]

It did.

It did about 610k in it's first week, then 250k, then about 150k.

Oh wait, these are overall and not December? What's up with PS2 taking 4 weeks? I thought it sold 1 million in a weekend? Japanese sales are so confusing.

 

[AniHawk]

I have a feeling the PSP might outsell the DS in the final week of the year, due to shortages for both systems (with Sony having about 20k more overall than Nintendo with shipments going by MC's numbers).

PSP sales should remain high. I imagine the many people who didn't get one during the holidays will still be searching.

 

[Broshnat]

Oh wait, these are overall and not December? What's up with PS2 taking 4 weeks? I thought it sold 1 million in a weekend? Japanese sales are so confusing.

Yes that's right. The Sega Saturn sold a million in 33 weeks in December!!

Have another read

From Launch to selling a million. It took the DS 4 weeks. Same as PS2, one less than GBA

 

[Broshnat]

I have a feeling the PSP might outsell the DS in the final week of the year, due to shortages for both systems (with Sony having about 20k more overall than Nintendo with shipments going by MC's numbers).

PSP sales should remain high. I imagine the many people who didn't get one during the holidays will still be searching.

I'm a tad confused, are MC's numbers out for 27th - 2nd?

 

[Spiritreaver]

Yes that's right. The Sega Saturn sold a million in 33 weeks in December!!

Have another read

From Launch to selling a million. It took the DS 4 weeks. Same as PS2, one less than GBA

Haha, I didn't know what I was reading really. But I get ya, I guess the 1 million thing was a from PR or MC or something. I dunno, but I'm certainly not dwelling on it any longer, god I need sleep. Thanks for posting htese anyways.

Regardless though, I'm willing to bet MC will have the DS selling out, and most likely the PSP as well. Heh, I'm really going out on a limb with this eh? :lol

 

[AniHawk]

I'm a tad confused, are MC's numbers out for 27th - 2nd?

No they aren't. I think MCs until the 26th are 350k for the PSP and 1.278 million for the DS. 510k PSPs shipped, 160k to be sold, potentially. 1.4 million DSes shipped, a potential 120k to be moved. So it's more than I thought. A gap of 40k. Wouldn't be surprised if it looks like:

DS: 80k
PSP: 122k

And then after the holidays, we should see a glimpse what "true" sales will be like, but the PSP will still be highly sought after.

 

[Broshnat]

Erm...

I think you're confusing actual numbers with estimates.

Media create surveys some stores and estimates numbers based on that. They are not ACTUAL numbers.

This week will look something like (for MC):

DS 250k
PSP 140k

and:

PS2 200k
GBASP 190k
GC 75k

Wait and see...

 

[AniHawk]

Erm...

I think you're confusing actual numbers with estimates.

Media create surveys some stores and estimates numbers based on that. They are not ACTUAL numbers.

This week will look something like (for MC):

DS 250k
PSP 140k

and:

PS2 200k
GBASP 190k
GC 75k

Wait and see...

I thought MC's are the most accurate estimates. The ones companies regularly refer to and rely on.

 

[DarkMehm]

Erm...

I think you're confusing actual numbers with estimates.

Media create surveys some stores and estimates numbers based on that. They are not ACTUAL numbers.

This week will look something like (for MC):

DS 250k
PSP 140k

and:

PS2 200k
GBASP 190k
GC 75k

Wait and see...

No you're wrong. Media Create doesn't survey "some" stores. It's actually 30.000 stores. Famitsu/Enterbrain surveys only 5.000 for reference. MC's figures are very accurate.

 

[Broshnat]

Hmmmm... don't get me wrong. I like MC numbers. They are often a fair bit higher than Famitsu, especially for Nintendo games, but they are still not totally accurate.

They may well survey 30,000 stores, but out of how many? 100,000? I dunno. All I know is that MC's numbers have differed enough in the past from so-called "actual" numbers (ie numbers released by the company) that I wouldn't take their numbers as given.

Also, the "1.4m shipped vs 510k shipped", have Nintendo actually said how many they did ship in 2004? Could have been 1.485m for example in the end. And what counts as 2004? Upto dec 31st?

Going by Famitsu and Dengeki numbers for 27th-2nd, I'd be VERY suprised if DS had done less than 200k according to Media Create.

 

[AniHawk]

Also, the "1.4m shipped vs 510k shipped", have Nintendo actually said how many they did ship in 2004?

I think they said 1.4 million for both regions, yes. An increase by 800k around the world.

And what counts as 2004? Upto dec 31st?

Yes, as far as their shipments go, but sales head into the new year. The final shipment for the year would have come in last week.

 

[Broshnat]

I think they said 1.4 million for both regions, yes. An increase by 800k around the world.



Yes, as far as their shipments go, but sales head into the new year. The final shipment for the year would have come in last week.

Yeah, my point is this:

They are not going to only ship 1.40m if they have shipped 1.278m by the end of week 20th-26th Dec, if they know they could sell another 200k+ in the following week.
They initially planned to ship about 1.40m to US and Japan in 2004, but saying that they can only have shipped exactly 1.40m by jan the 2nd according to MC because of this is a bit silly for a number of reasons.

-They could have actually shipped more than 1.4m
-Media create could have been reporting their numbers a bit high, so in fact only about 1.15m had been sold by the previous week or something
-The 1.4m period could have been up until 27th Dec. Or 28th. or 29th or whatever. Who knows exactly when the shipments have come.

Don't mean to have a go, but a bit of common sense is needed here really...

Surely the fact that Famitsu and Dengeki have both reported numbers of 170-180k for this week, and the fact they have both been reporting lower than MC up until now, suggests a MC number of over 200k?

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah, my point is this:

They are not going to only ship 1.40m if they have shipped 1.278m by the end of week 20th-26th Dec, if they know they could sell another 200k+ in the following week.
They initially planned to ship about 1.40m to US and Japan in 2004, but saying that they can only have shipped exactly 1.40m by jan the 2nd according to MC because of this is a bit silly for a number of reasons.

-They could have actually shipped more than 1.4m
-Media create could have been reporting their numbers a bit high, so in fact only about 1.15m had been sold by the previous week or something
-The 1.4m period could have been up until 27th Dec. Or 28th. or 29th or whatever. Who knows exactly when the shipments have come.

Don't mean to have a go, but a bit of common sense is needed here really...

Surely the fact that Famitsu and Dengeki have both reported numbers of 170-180k for this week, and the fact they have both been reporting lower than MC up until now, suggests a MC number of over 200k?

I think what happened was the biggest shipment of the year was the first week. The fourth week, last week, was the second biggest shipment, and it basically sold out. I have a feeling 1.3 million DSes were shipped at the end of last week, and another 100k is being shipped unless Nintendo found a way to increase slave labor- I mean shipments.

 

[Broshnat]

So explain how Famitsu and Dangeki surveyed stores and estimated that 173k and 188k DS were sold last week?

Was it only the stores they surveyed that had any left then? It just happened to be the 5,000 stores that they survey that sold loads, whereas the other 25,000 stores MC surveys and the other x thousand stores that aren't covered by either had sold out?

 

[kitchenmotors]

Broshnat, you need an avatar!

 

[Broshnat]

Broshnat, you need an avatar!

Hehe!!

Find me a good one and I'll put it up

(maybe that's just going to incite people)

 

[AniHawk]

So explain how Famitsu and Dangeki surveyed stores and estimated that 173k and 188k DS were sold last week?

Going along with my theory, it could be because the YTD/LTD userbase is less than 1.4 million for both.

 

[Broshnat]

I think what happened was the biggest shipment of the year was the first week. The fourth week, last week, was the second biggest shipment, and it basically sold out. I have a feeling 1.3 million DSes were shipped at the end of last week, and another 100k is being shipped unless Nintendo found a way to increase slave labor- I mean shipments.

The sales on a weekly basis are pretty consistent with there being a plentiful supply to be quite honest, apart from this last week which even according to Famitsu and Dengeki looks a little lower (probably the effect of shortages is coming into play, but not enough to result in only 80k being sold or whatever).

500k week 1
200k week 2
240k week 3
400k week 4 - the big Xmas week

Seems about right to me. The big jump in week 4 is more a result of xmas than a new shipment.

 

[Broshnat]

Going along with my theory, it could be because the YTD/LTD userbase is less than 1.4 million for both.

I'm confused.

If in REAL LIFE there were 1.3m DS sold up until the 26th Dec, and only 1.4m were shipped, that would leave only 100k that could be sold in the week 27th - 2nd as you are suggesting.

We've said MC covers 30,000 stores and Famitsu covers 5,000 stores. Every week since launch, MC has reported bigger numbers than Famitsu and the reason has been explained as Famitsu doesn't cover many toy stores, so misses a lot of sales from them that MC picks up.

Therefore, you'd expect Famitsu numbers to track lower than Media Creates this week as usual. If there are only 100k DSs out there, how can famitsu have estimated 173k?

It's illogical.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm confused.

If in REAL LIFE there were 1.3m DS sold up until the 26th Dec, and only 1.4m were shipped, that would leave only 100k that could be sold in the week 27th - 2nd as you are suggesting.

We've said MC covers 30,000 stores and Famitsu covers 5,000 stores. Every week since launch, MC has reported bigger numbers than Famitsu and the reason has been explained as Famitsu doesn't cover many toy stores, so misses a lot of sales from them that MC picks up.

Therefore, you'd expect Famitsu numbers to track lower than Media Creates this week as usual. If there are only 100k DSs out there, how can famitsu have estimated 173k?

It's illogical.

Hypothetically...

Let's say Famitsu tracks so many stores. These 5k stores they track are large chains/stores. People want to go to specialty stores instead of huge electronic goods stores, so the systems don't quite sell out of their first shipment, and the estimates reflect this. This keeps carrying on until last week when they still have some stock left, plus a new shipment. People now go to these stores because the smaller shops are all sold out of DSes. So now they've sold out of systems, and it reflects on the charts.

Something like that. I should really start heading off to bed soon. It's 5:45 over here.

 

[Broshnat]

A possibility I guess, but not all that likely! If anything, I think famitsu mainly tracks specialist stores, game shops etc.

Anyway, you should get to bed really mate! It's 2 O'clock here at work, and I'm bored stupid as usual. How come you're up so late anyway?!!

 

[AniHawk]

How come you're up so late anyway?!!

No school until basically February. No work until Saturday. Not like that changes my sleep schedule a whole lot, though.

 

[Broshnat]

No school until basically February. No work until Saturday. Not like that changes my sleep schedule a whole lot, though.

Haha!!

You're just waiting for MC numbers aren't you?! Can't sleep until u get em!

I assume u live west coast of America somewhere then...

 

[TTP]

DS 332k (1,139k total)
PSP 102k (365k total)

---

DS 188k (1,327k total)
PSP 122k (487k total)

Interesting...

 

[JJConrad]

Don't be suprised if the DS buries the 1.4 million mark on the MC charts. It looks like Nintendo may have diverted some of the N.A. units back to Japan. Instead of shipping 1.4 million here, their latest release claimed only 1.3 million. I'd expect that the difference stayed in Japan.

After the holidays are over the 3 charts tend to come closer together. The difference is created by the gap in the samples and their estimates. If you were to track the sales of PS2 and GBA in the US, and one tracking system counts both Best Buy and TRU, while the next system only tracked Best Buy, the latter system could only guess what TRU is selling and would most likely favor the Ps2 (because GBA sales at BB are almost non-exsistant in comparison). The system that tracks both doesn't have to guess. What happens during the holiday spikes, because the number of large volume of sales, even a 1% miscalculation can result in a difference of 50,000 units. If you've notice, the PS2 figures are more consistant between the 3 charts because of where the PS2 sells comparied to where the Nintendo systems.

 

[Broshnat]

Don't be suprised if the DS buries the 1.4 million mark on the MC charts. It looks like Nintendo may have diverted some of the N.A. units back to Japan. Instead of shipping 1.4 million here, their latest release claimed only 1.3 million. I'd expect that the difference stayed in Japan.

After the holidays are over the 3 charts tend to come closer together. The difference is created by the gap in the samples and their estimates. If you were to track the sales of PS2 and GBA in the US, and one tracking system counts both Best Buy and TRU, while the next system only tracked Best Buy, the latter system could only guess what TRU is selling and would most likely favor the Ps2 (because GBA sales at BB are almost non-exsistant in comparison). The system that tracks both doesn't have to guess. What happens during the holiday spikes, because the number of large volume of sales, even a 1% miscalculation can result in a difference of 50,000 units. If you've notice, the PS2 figures are more consistant between the 3 charts because of where the PS2 sells comparied to where the Nintendo systems.

Exactly!!

Although the difference between 260k and 400k is a bit more than a couple of percent.

But you're right generally with what you're saying.

 

[Broshnat]

DS 332k (1,139k total)
PSP 102k (365k total)

---

DS 188k (1,327k total)
PSP 122k (487k total)

Interesting...

Why's that then?

As explained before, DS is getting close to sell-out now, whereas PSP is starting to pick up shipments.

 

[seismologist]

PSP is being sold to scalpers. That would explain why there's no games in the top 10.

 

[Pimpwerx]

PSP is being sold to scalpers. That would explain why there's no games in the top 10.

No, tie-ratios are low for other reasons, and it could just be the handheld curse. But for all the talk of strong PSP software sales, Sony hasn't mentioned the number of units moved. They've consistently said how much hardware has moved, but not the software. Even the PS2's paltry 3:1 ratio it had early on was reason for a press release, so something's rotten in the state of Denmark, me thinks. :? PEACE.

 

[cvxfreak]

I miss Dengeki charts.

 

[sohka88]

Ps2 did not take 4 weeks to sell 1 million.

 

[Broshnat]

Ps2 did not take 4 weeks to sell 1 million.

It certainly did upon launch in Japan.