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DFC predicts 50 per cent market share at best for PS3
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
SolidSnakex
Member
gofreak said:
:lol I remember those. It seemed like everyon was saying the PS2 didn't have a chance of doing as well as the PSone. Now look at how things turned out.
radioheadrule83
Banned
GTA and Halo really exploded out of nowhere this generation. Sure there were GTA games before PS2, but GTA3 changed everything.
The important thing for all of the companies, and especially Microsoft and Nintendo if they're to win back/take some share, is to offer great deals to lots of third parties, offer exclusivity payments on promising games and hope that theirs becomes the next big thing like these games and the likes of Gran Turismo, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider, and GoldenEye before them. People overlook Nintendo's own software when quantifying AAA content, and would probably do so even if the amount of great Nintendo-made exclusives outnumbered the great first/third party exclusives combined on other systems. They need third parties... their own success sometimes hurts the games the third parties tend to make too... even the Gamecube's biggest third party benefactors this generation have done so with a little help from using Nintendo franchises. They're running a farm of chickens that shit golden eggs amidst an agricultural industry that output edible eggs of a varying quality. They need to carry on improving relations with companies (moreso in the west) and address a spoilt fanbase. This is part of why I think any DS-like opportunity for third parties to differentiate their products on Nintendo systems will be a good move in the end.
The important thing for all of the companies, and especially Microsoft and Nintendo if they're to win back/take some share, is to offer great deals to lots of third parties, offer exclusivity payments on promising games and hope that theirs becomes the next big thing like these games and the likes of Gran Turismo, Metal Gear, Resident Evil, Tomb Raider, and GoldenEye before them. People overlook Nintendo's own software when quantifying AAA content, and would probably do so even if the amount of great Nintendo-made exclusives outnumbered the great first/third party exclusives combined on other systems. They need third parties... their own success sometimes hurts the games the third parties tend to make too... even the Gamecube's biggest third party benefactors this generation have done so with a little help from using Nintendo franchises. They're running a farm of chickens that shit golden eggs amidst an agricultural industry that output edible eggs of a varying quality. They need to carry on improving relations with companies (moreso in the west) and address a spoilt fanbase. This is part of why I think any DS-like opportunity for third parties to differentiate their products on Nintendo systems will be a good move in the end.
norinrad21
Banned
Nintendo 40%
Sony 30%
MS 30%
Heh some of you are in for a shock when it comes to REV.
Sony 30%
MS 30%
Heh some of you are in for a shock when it comes to REV.
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
Well I wish to clarify my above prediction which was quite pro MS, I believe MS have fixed some of the problems they had this gen eg stupid licensing, late to market. I also think they are in a much better position to cut costs so I think they can really come to the battle all guns blazing. They also have more dev support this time around.
Sony: Well thay have outdone themselves, much more powerful console than I expected. All that remains to be seen is if they back it up with a good online infrastructure and blu-ray take off. They have also made statements alluding to an effort to help devs get to grips with programming thier machine as well as I am sure creating tools with nvidia and IBM co-operation.
Nintendo: Well nothing is known about them, if REV is as good as nintendo hope then >20% market sharte is possible if more third parties desert (are there any left) and it isnt 13% here we come.
Sony: Well thay have outdone themselves, much more powerful console than I expected. All that remains to be seen is if they back it up with a good online infrastructure and blu-ray take off. They have also made statements alluding to an effort to help devs get to grips with programming thier machine as well as I am sure creating tools with nvidia and IBM co-operation.
Nintendo: Well nothing is known about them, if REV is as good as nintendo hope then >20% market sharte is possible if more third parties desert (are there any left) and it isnt 13% here we come.
krypt0nian
Banned
norinrad21 said:
Whatever you say Aries...
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Razoric said:
I think I'm right. People play the multitheftauto mod. It extends the life of the game. I loved it, it made me play Vice City on PC long after the normal life of a game of that manner. I repeat, if Saint's Row does it right and THQ markets right, they will have a blockbuster on their hands. Launches always bring about new franchises. SSX comes to mind, this could be a breakthough for THQ. I'm in no way predicting numbers, unlike most, nor will I say it will eclipse the sales of GTA. I'm a realist, it won't, but GTA this upcoming generation will not do it either.
SolidSnakex
Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
Well it didn't take long for that to begin.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
SolidSnakex said:
It won't. Tell me one game in a franchise, after it hits an apex of sorts in sales, continues the way it does. MGS1 sold more on PS1 than MGS2 has done or what MGS3 will do. Super Mario 64 sold more than Mario Sunshine. Hell, damn near all on Nintendo's games sold more last generation than this gen. Not to say that there will never be the anomaly. Barring sports games, Halo 3 might exceed 2's sales and Gran Turismo 5 might outdo 4. Other than that, not going to happen. I'm sure Tony Hawk sells a nice bit for Activision, I buy them all the time, but it sold a ton more around THPS 2 than it did THUG 2. It's a fact. Tekkens on the PS1 sold more than on the PS2. Final Fantasy games as well.
It's fun! Here's mine...Agent Icebeezy said:
North America
-PS3: 50%
-360: 35%
-REV: 15%
Europe
-PS3: 60%
-360: 30%
-REV: 10%
Japan
-PS3: 70%
-REV: 25%
-360: 05%
Worldwide
-PS3: 55%
-360: 30%
-REV: 15%
...each hardware provider will make gains in terms of raw userbase numbers over this generation though, with Microsoft obviously making the most dramatic gains.
Fixed2BeBroken
Member
"did someone say 50 cent?"
SolidSnakex
Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
SM64 is considered by many to be better than MS and MGS is considered by many to be better than MGS2. If that happens with GTA4, then sure it probably won't outsell the previous games. But Rockstar has shown that they're really good at improving each new installment and there's alot they can add to the next game to make it alot better than what we've played this gen.
sonycowboy
Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
Pokemon. Gran Turismo. Tony Hawk. Need for Speed. Spider-Man. Medal of Honor. Sims.
Just off the top of my head
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Unless, the market for consoles next generation is ~225M units, I don't see Sony matching their likely 125M+ units this generation at 55% market share.
Plus, I can't seem to get 55% with you giving Sony 60% in the UK and 70% in Japan. The US would have to be like ~60% of the overall console market worldwide for that to happen.
sonycowboy
Member
Flo_Evans said:
~38-42%
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
I was just messing w/ you
Honestly I think most predictions in this thread would be realistic if we were talking about three consoles which are more or less the same. But Nintendo's backlog might make it the ultimate 2nd-console to own, so I expect Nintendo's share to be a little higher than just 10 or 15%. As I'm not really bond to any console manufacturer I will see what the future holds for me.
I think that holds true more for Japan than the west (which is also where I see Nintendo making the most gains, despite a shrinking market). I do think Revolution will outsell GameCube in every market though (same holds true for the new PlayStation and Xbox over their predecessors).Apenheul said:
Sony will lose share in the US, no question about it.
Of course, MS has hardly a prayer in Japan.
Europe could be an interesting battle ground.
Just to hard to get a read on Nintendo.
As said above, Sonys NA share will probably be around 45%. MS is helped pretty well by the early launch. It will take a good amount of time for Sony to surpass sales, especially since Sony is becoming notorious for shipping shortages.
Japan might double their share in Japan but of course, thats nothing to write home about.
I say Sony will lose a bit of share in Europe to MS but not as much as NA share.
Of course, MS has hardly a prayer in Japan.
Europe could be an interesting battle ground.
Just to hard to get a read on Nintendo.
As said above, Sonys NA share will probably be around 45%. MS is helped pretty well by the early launch. It will take a good amount of time for Sony to surpass sales, especially since Sony is becoming notorious for shipping shortages.
Japan might double their share in Japan but of course, thats nothing to write home about.
I say Sony will lose a bit of share in Europe to MS but not as much as NA share.
monkeymagic
Banned
What is market share precisely?
Let's say this gen ends 20 (14%) / 20 (14%) / 100 (72%) = 140M market size
and next gen 67 (20%) / 67 (20%) / 200 (60%) = 334M market size
So in this (extreme) scenario Sony loses marketshare and yet ends up selling twice as many units as it did this gen
Market share as a barometer for success on its own really gives little or no indication of the next gen landscape when we have no idea what the market size will be.
This is especially so, given that from what we've seen, both Sony and MS are looking to appeal even more to traditionally non-gaming customers thereby inevitably expanding the overall market size.
Let's say this gen ends 20 (14%) / 20 (14%) / 100 (72%) = 140M market size
and next gen 67 (20%) / 67 (20%) / 200 (60%) = 334M market size
So in this (extreme) scenario Sony loses marketshare and yet ends up selling twice as many units as it did this gen
Market share as a barometer for success on its own really gives little or no indication of the next gen landscape when we have no idea what the market size will be.
This is especially so, given that from what we've seen, both Sony and MS are looking to appeal even more to traditionally non-gaming customers thereby inevitably expanding the overall market size.
radioheadrule83
Banned
There was a definite change with the nature of gaming with the leap to 3d, particularly with the release of more cinematic games on PlayStation, but since that point I honestly don't think a lot has been done with home consoles to get traditionally non-gaming customers interested. I think that's changing, the whole media set-top box angle might play out well for MS and Sony... and online games pique interest in people whether they've played them before or not... but are the results substantive enough to say these things are expanding the market? I'm not sure. The games look and play great, and the marketing is more sophisticated than ever - but I don't think too much has changed. What do I thank for the increase in consoles and games sold today?
The kids who were gaming in the 80s and 90s now have jobs and can afford to buy more games and more than one console. There's a whole new generation of kids playing video games in addition. This is, in my view, a very large reason why the market seems to have expanded at all. We've got companies banking on this to be a continued trend as they buckshot themselves into a more ambitious set of targets, and a destiny of games with higher budgets. I feel sorry for the people who'll be losing their jobs or having them relocated sometime in the next few years.
There's a shitload of people who still don't play games. A lot of older people would cut most of todays games right out of their schedules simply because of the time they demand, or simply because their generation wasn't a part of it all when gaming took off.. few games seem to be made with women in mind.. and playing games is not a cheap mass market hobby. You can spend a fraction of the price seeing a movie in a high quality theatre and later owning the DVD. That's before we've even considered the prohibitive nature of the hardware with regards to usability and cost.
Sony are in a stronger position now then they were with PS1. In Japan Nintendo are clearly on a downwards slope and are their only competition. In the US they are undisputed no.1 and have huge sales here and grew from the N64/Ps1 battle which was closer than the PS2/Xbox/GC battle. In Europe Sony overwhelmingly won both generations and Nintendo, MS now have damaged brands. Its obvious who will win this new generation. At the same time many people here dont understand branding because PlayStation right now is one of the most powerful brands ever.
monkeymagic
Banned
Apart from graphics upgrades, the addition of DVD movie playback and online play definitely contributed in bringing new and non-console gamers to the market
X360 and PS3 take mass appeal features even further with PC connectivity, digital camera, audio player and video camera connectivity, multimedia (MP3, Photos) capabilities, HD movie playback and possibly PVR functionality
In addition to the jump in visuals and greater 3D immersion, I can only see these features helping to expand the market
I have to prediction that I can't decide on. The first being that next-gen breaks down much like this gen (MS and Nintendo about even, Sony way ahead), but with minor changes. Th other:
US:
Sony = down
MS = up
Nitendo = even
Europe:
Sony = up
MS = even
Nintendo = even
Japan:
Sony = down
MS = even
Nintendo = up
MS' plan (so far) appears to be "focus on America," and I think that will cost them in the rest of the world. Their Xbox Live and HD-Era won't have the same impact in Europe and Japan. Their japanese support doesn't look that much better than the xbox's was; FFXI wasn't exactly a system-seller for the PS2's harddrive, an it won't be a system-seller, three years later, for a more expensive peice of hardware. Live 360 will have the strongest hardcore userbase, but with both Sony and Nintendo offering free online play casual gamers aren't going to pay for Gold. If MS misses this holiday launch in any region, they can kiss any hope of gains there "goodbye."
Sony will have a hard time keeping its marketshare in the US because MS will be pushing too hard; Europe will still be Sonyland. They've got the media in their corner, who are more than willing to create all the hype they can for them. Japan may be a different story.
Nintendo will do well as a secondary console. The downloadable game program will be attrative to casual gamers. The console is still a big question mark, but Japan is far more open to new ideas and will be more accepting to whatever the Revolution will be. Western media is already counting Nintendo out and it'll be a far tougher sell here.
US:
Sony = down
MS = up
Nitendo = even
Europe:
Sony = up
MS = even
Nintendo = even
Japan:
Sony = down
MS = even
Nintendo = up
MS' plan (so far) appears to be "focus on America," and I think that will cost them in the rest of the world. Their Xbox Live and HD-Era won't have the same impact in Europe and Japan. Their japanese support doesn't look that much better than the xbox's was; FFXI wasn't exactly a system-seller for the PS2's harddrive, an it won't be a system-seller, three years later, for a more expensive peice of hardware. Live 360 will have the strongest hardcore userbase, but with both Sony and Nintendo offering free online play casual gamers aren't going to pay for Gold. If MS misses this holiday launch in any region, they can kiss any hope of gains there "goodbye."
Sony will have a hard time keeping its marketshare in the US because MS will be pushing too hard; Europe will still be Sonyland. They've got the media in their corner, who are more than willing to create all the hype they can for them. Japan may be a different story.
Nintendo will do well as a secondary console. The downloadable game program will be attrative to casual gamers. The console is still a big question mark, but Japan is far more open to new ideas and will be more accepting to whatever the Revolution will be. Western media is already counting Nintendo out and it'll be a far tougher sell here.
thestopsign
Member
NA
~ %50 - Sony
~ %35 - Microsoft
~ %15 - Nintendo
Japan
~ %50 - Sony
~ %40 - Nintendo
~ %10 - Microsoft
Europe
~ %60 - Sony
~ %30 - Microsoft
~ %10 - Nintendo
I think Nintendo is going to gain Market share in Japan. The sleek design, and the 'Virtual Console' idea is going to catch on fire there. As the DS has shown that the new 'Non-Game' market is indeed actually there. Nintendo is also going to attract some girls into the market with the full backwards compatiblity.
~ %50 - Sony
~ %35 - Microsoft
~ %15 - Nintendo
Japan
~ %50 - Sony
~ %40 - Nintendo
~ %10 - Microsoft
Europe
~ %60 - Sony
~ %30 - Microsoft
~ %10 - Nintendo
I think Nintendo is going to gain Market share in Japan. The sleek design, and the 'Virtual Console' idea is going to catch on fire there. As the DS has shown that the new 'Non-Game' market is indeed actually there. Nintendo is also going to attract some girls into the market with the full backwards compatiblity.
monkeymagic said:
Online gaming did not attract any new audiences at all. at best it got a few hardcore gamers. PC online gaming is mainstream and much more important right now.
Quite true. Ps3 for example has memory card readers. Nothing new about those but how many have actually used them in the living room? Not many. It certainly brings alot of value to PS3. Anyone could use them. True connectivity is the future.
Ruzbeh said:
Why should anyone predict anything positive for Nintendo? You cant be that closed off. What Sony have done with PlayStation is more than what anyone else has ever acheived in the industry. To people gaming is PlayStation. They earned that and they still are getting stronger.
If any of you are smart business men, counting out any major hardware this early is stupid.
Look at the DS and its performance. No one here could have predictwd it, since everyone is comfortable thinking inside the box.
Revolution and Xbox360 could do really well and create a market where the PS3 doesn't dominate outright or where there is not one clear leader.
Look at the DS and its performance. No one here could have predictwd it, since everyone is comfortable thinking inside the box.
Revolution and Xbox360 could do really well and create a market where the PS3 doesn't dominate outright or where there is not one clear leader.
sonycowboy
Member
Clearly, based on the posts, nobody is reading the source material. A wealth of insightful comments, IMO. Of course, they fall on all sides of the fence so it doesn't particularly help decide who will win unless you assign weight to the respective issues.
On launching early
On continued support
There is more to be found in there, but I found the two above to be pretty good commentary.
On launching early
On continued support
There is more to be found in there, but I found the two above to be pretty good commentary.
Deg said:
PSP is so easy to outclass and then some. I think PSP's lifetime is bound to be short. Sony is not likely to sell 12 millions of it by the end of year as forecasted. On the other hand, Nintendo will certainly reach this number with the DS. So I'm not sure PSP will ever have the time to catch up with Nintendo's handlelds. GBA Micro, and GBE (DS2?) are on the way. PSP was a nice try, but it takes more, much more than this to take on the handleld's crown.
Ruzbeh said:Ah, so by that logic, the PS3 should also fail, because of the bad design.And the "dream team" factor, in this case, is the "banana controller" factor.
:lol The N64 didn't fail because of it looks. It failed because it was cartridge-based and the chipset wasn't good (i mean, it's configuration). The is also lack texture cache and ram. The machine was also able to push bigger polygons but less at the same time as the PS1. All those things are part of why most third party games looked like shit, the resolution was low and you had big walls with one stretched texture.
Also Nintendo as not been easy on third party, not only charging big royalties but also by asking them a truckload of shit so their game is "hot enough" to be on the N64.
Nintendo and their "dream team" of devellopers. They were just a big inflated head.
artful_dodger
Member
Agent Icebeezy said:
Super Mario Bros : 40.24 Million units sold (this was bundled so drop at least 50% of this # for actual unit sales)
Super Mario Bros. 2 : 7.46 Million units sold
Super Mario Bros. 3 : 17.28 Million units sold
Super Mario Bros 3 remains the best-selling video game of all time that was never bundled with console hardware.
What this means is that franchise sequels don't naturally sell less. Great franchises continually have higher expectations from the general public, therefore; if the developer makes a better game, it will sell more.
(also put your game in a movie with Fred Savage and a power-glove carrying bully. +5M copies sold for every kid who saw 'The Wizard' in theatres)
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
i meant when franchises move from one generation to the next
Ruzbeh said:
First of all, there's a big difference between "doom and gloom" and "realistic expectations." Because as you and I both know, Nintendo could end up with 10-15% marketshare total next-gen and still remain profitable. So let's get that straight.
Secondly, what's with the "Please... Revolution for the win...?" What does it matter to you who wins? Obviously, you're not trying to hide your preferences. But at the end of the day the Revolution is going to bring you solid Nintendo games... and isn't that what you buy the system for anyway? So why does it matter if it's #1 or #18? It just sounds very desperate coming from you.
Ruzbeh said:
Thirdly, the PS3 having a "bad design" (outside of the controller) is not a universal fact. Don't try to make it so. I like the designs of all three consoles this time around, which is a very good thing. Revolution is by far the most attractive. It's also laughable that you're trying to equate the "banana controller" with the "dream team", because it's so short sighted that it's pathetic.
And finally, he did not mean design as in system looks. N64 wasn't a bad looking system in my opinion. He meant design in terms of going for the cartridge format and losing SquareEnix support as a result of it, a critical failing that made it impossible for Nintendo to compete in the long run. What on the PS3 (or Xbox360) matches such a failing? Nothing. And that's exactly the type of failing it would take for a similar result to occur as in the N64/PSX generation.