My man, you need to add more granularity to those options. ER didn't exceed 1M CCU on Steam (though it was very close), so I'd suggest adding choices in 100k increments when going above 300k.
If we talk about Elden Ring(base game), we might see high numbers, but regarding the DLC, since certain elements in the game need to be completed, I say we might only see about 20-30% of the numbers from the first game.
About a third of the playerbase never beat Margit. I think it's pretty safe to assume that the fraction of owners who won't be buying the DLC is at least that large, so the overall number of players might be lower. But then again, maybe the game sold enough additional copies since hitting 950k back in March of 2022 to make up for all of those people.
I'm aiming high. I think it just cracks 1 million during the weekend. People who already plan to play the DLC will be on + fomo from people trying to complete bosses in the base game.