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[Men_in_Boxes]

Helldivers II is a 4 player (or 3 player, or 2 player, or 1 player) co-op game developed by Arrowhead Studio's and is releasing on PS5+PC later this year. It's coming to Steam so I gathered similar games and jotted down some player engagement information about them in order to see how it might perform.


Game Title.......................................Healthiest month......................................Honeymoon Period..............................Last 6 months avg.

Back 4 Blood..................................29k (launch month).................................4 months..................................................1k players
Vermintide 2..................................30k (launch month)..................................3 months..................................................3.3k players
Risk of Rain 2.................................21k (launch month)..................................2 months..................................................7k players
Deep Rock Galactic.....................21k (4 years in)...........................................1 month...................................................16k players
Left 4 Dead.....................................32k (11 years in).........................................1 month....................................................22k players
Warframe........................................59k (6 years in)............................................N/A............................................................45k players
Destiny 2.........................................169k (launch month)..................................4 months.................................................80k players

Deep Rock Galactic and Warframe are two games that have sneakily grown month after month, year after year, disproving the narrative "If Live Service doesn't hit at launch, they have no chance." Solid updates absolutely bring players back. Left 4 Dead seems like a weird anomaly. It's having a resurgence on Steam but it's not on XBox Lives top 50 most played. Outside the genre, Sea of Thieves (Rare's most profitable game) has been averaging between 10k and 20k avg players on Steam for the last couple of years. It obviously does pretty well on XBL as well. That might give us an idea about team size, budget, and expectations for player engagement. Anywho, how do you think Helldivers II will do after it's honeymoon period? Where do you think it'll settle?

*Healthiest month: Month with the highest average players.
*Honeymoon period: How long after launch did the player trend reach equilibrium.
*Last 6 months avg: Estimation of average player count over last 6 months.

 

[{insert code here}]

Can't wait for this. Helldivers was one of my favorite PS4 games and one of the best coop games ever made imo. Hoping this game picks up a larger audience but I'm skeptical on that because of the steep learning curve.

 

[hlm666]

The first peaked at 6700 ccu. If this comes out around space marine 2, payday 3, arc raiders or god forbid Starfield it's going to be a struggle for it.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

i guess the change in perspective was to make it more appealing. but the old perspective made it unique. this looks generic.

 

[Drizzlehell]

I recently checked out the first Helldivers when it was on Steam sale and only made it about an hour in because it was one of the most boring things I've ever played. It definitely didn't endear me towards a sequel that looks like pretty much the same thing, except with a camera zoomed in on your guy's back.

Honestly, even Anthem looked more interesting than this.

 

[X-Wing]

Game is looking dope. Can’t wait.

 

[StueyDuck]

Potential... not massive

Deserves massive.

But the kids these days are easy, they just needa add dances and skins and you'll reel them

 

[Mossybrew]

I'm hoping for the best with this game, looks fun.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Side question: Do we know what percentage of NeoGAF views this site on computer vs mobile? The OP is readable on computer but a mess on phone.

 

[Black_Stride]

This is gonna bomb so hard.

 

[crackajack]

Potential... not massive

Deserves massive.

But the kids these days are easy, they just needa add dances and skins and you'll reel them

Imho third person transformation looked okay, but it had a tough time getting attention with the twin stick shooter like view, which isn't that common, but gets easily labeled indie and cheap, and now possibly gets overlooked because it is just another over the shoulder Sony game.
Reasonable to expect to have some die hard fans praising it like the previous one or eg. Quake Enemy Territory. It was kinda special, while doing actually not that much very different. So no idea what triggers success.

The devs probably should just lie about it and pretend that it is a soulslike, and that they work on romance options between aliens or some stupid shit to create fake buzz...

 

[Spyxos]

If it's free, it could be quite successful. i voted 3k-10k. But if it is full price, it will most likely go down.

 

[Black_Stride]

If it's free, it could be quite successful. i voted 3k-10k. But if it is full price, it will most likely go down.

ohh wait this game is free to play?

Okay I rescind my last post....this actually could be successful.

 

[Sleepwalker]

ohh wait this game is free to play?

Okay I rescind my last post....this actually could be successful.

No confirmation but it doesn't have a preorder button on either PS or steam, just says coming 2023. I dont think itll be free tbh.

 

[Miyazaki’s Slave]

Remember Magika?

I hope Arrowhead has success with this game but I also think as a studio they fly under the radar and make the stuff they want to make.

Sony is publishing it for them so they (hopefully) already got fat $tacks for the development costs.

 

[Lucifers Beard]

I’m looking forward to this but they need to avoid the next 2-3 months in my opinion. Too many big games and not everyone can play them all at once. Next few months have BG3, Firewall Ultra, Starfield, Cyberpunk update.

I also really like the look of Atlas Fallen so that’s another one to potentially consider.

It’ll do well if it picks the right release date.

 

[cinnamonandgravy]

no couch coop = no play

 

[NT80]

Disappointed with the change in viewpoint. Still looks good but not as stand out as before when it was isometric. Offline co-op will be out too.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

This is gonna bomb so hard.

You really think it will after looking at Deep Rock Galactic, Warframe, and Left 4 Deads numbers?

 

[Pasta la Vista]

You really think it will after looking at Deep Rock Galactic, Warframe, and Left 4 Deads numbers?

On Steam? Well yeah, I mean it's going to be really difficult to get players off other games that fit into the live service genre. It's been milked.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

I’m looking forward to this but they need to avoid the next 2-3 months in my opinion. Too many big games and not everyone can play them all at once. Next few months have BG3, Firewall Ultra, Starfield, Cyberpunk update.

I also really like the look of Atlas Fallen so that’s another one to potentially consider.

It’ll do well if it picks the right release date.

Also this, very bad time to release it tbh.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

On Steam? Well yeah, I mean it's going to be really difficult to get players off other games that fit into the live service genre. It's been milked.

Diablo IV seems to suggest otherwise but OK.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

Diablo IV seems to suggest otherwise but OK.

Diablo is a very popular and long lasting series, that comparison makes no sense.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Diablo is a very popular and long lasting series, that comparison makes no sense.

There's ALWAYS an excuse. That Live Service success doesn't count because (insert excuse here).

Pasta, did you vote in the poll? I'd like to see you answer the question.

 

[Coconutt]

 

[SEGAvangelist]

This game will bomb unless it launches on PS Plus. The first game launched in a very different market.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

There's ALWAYS an excuse. That Live Service success doesn't count because (insert excuse here).

Pasta, did you vote in the poll? I'd like to see you answer the question.

Dude, it's fucking Diablo of course it was going to do well. Especially on PC where the series has its roots. And wasn't Diablo 3 not on Steam but Battlenet?
Helldivers is not a long established franchise even much less on PC. It has a huge uphill battle, especially on Steam.
These are just the facts.

 

[Black_Stride]

You really think it will after looking at Deep Rock Galactic, Warframe, and Left 4 Deads numbers?

If I have to pay for it, I see very little incentive to jump on this.
If its free to play Ill give it a go, and if its fun and not another Outriders then maybe it gets some players to stick.

But nothing ive seen makes it seem like a game people are gonna invest time into.....i think going third person actually hurt the Helldivers identity right now beyond the the bugs, this doesnt look to have anything to make it standout from the crowd of amazing games weve got.

 

[GymWolf]

It looks super generic tbh.

 

[TrebleShot]

Cookie cutter but ill play it, if it was F2P no question.

 

[Bojanglez]

I imagine maybe it may use the Rocket League, Fall Guys model and starts at a modest price but also free on PS+. Then after a while it becomes fully F2P.

 

[LastBattle]

Helldivers 2 looks sick! Hope it does really
Well.

 

[Roufianos]

Not into co-op games but, for the kind of game it is, I don't see how you can watch that trailer and not be impressed. I think it will do decent.

 

[The Infectious Paradox]

It has potential but doesn't seem sustainable unless they have a great road map that adds new gameplay elements. Seems like an Outriders situation.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I wonder if anyone would change their vote after playing for a few days.

I think I nailed mine at 10k - 20k...closer to 10k though.

 

[Luipadre]

lol funny to see the comments now, thankfully my embarrassing comments about this game from pre launch arent here

 

[Sanepar]

The big question is if next weekend will break 250k players on Steam.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I voted but just to see who the haters were.

 

[rhodesianshepard]

I know at a minimum, I will be playing every major update this game has to offer. The gameplay foundation is unlike anything on the market

 

[Imtjnotu]

This is gonna bomb so hard.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

Well damn, happy to see it is a success

 

[tommib]

This looks like the Switch reveal thread.

 

[Zheph]

Some posts in here

 

[a multicultural team of v]

To be fair, this game did follow almost the exact same path as Returnal did:

Every trailer except the last one -> Looks mid
The very last trailer and final previews right before launch -> wait wtf this game looks good?
The actual game -> holy shit this is amazing

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

 

[Gudji]

This is gonna bomb so hard.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

To be fair, this game did follow almost the exact same path as Returnal did:

Every trailer except the last one -> Looks mid
The very last trailer and final previews right before launch -> wait wtf this game looks good?
The actual game -> holy shit this is amazing

Except Returnal sold 560k copies after 3 months on the market. Helldivers 2 is likely approaching ~3 million sales in less than 2 weeks.

The rule of multiplayer must be observed.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Not too sure where it will be on a month or two. I’m having a blast with it now. I wish I had more time to play it.

 

[DonkeyPunchJr]

My vote was correct . I just voted a minute ago, but it was correct!

 

[ManaByte]

This is gonna bomb so hard.