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John McCain: GOP health care bill likely 'dead'
- Thread starter Shard
- Start date
LordOfLore
Banned
So it's still active since McCain says stuff but never follows through.
SolidSnakeUS
Member
As it should be. Fuck that bill.
Capito came out swinging hard against it (WV Senator) and actively brought up a R/D compromise bill after a PR tour alongside Manchin (D WV Senator). It's dead and they know it.
It's Bush's '05 SS plan all over again.
You don't have multiple Senators (Collins, Capito, McCain, others) talking about a compromise bill if you're still planning to ram it through.
It's Bush's '05 SS plan all over again.
You don't have multiple Senators (Collins, Capito, McCain, others) talking about a compromise bill if you're still planning to ram it through.
FlowersisBritish
fleurs n'est pas britannique
Yeah but McCain's kinda crazy now and I take what he says with grains of salt.
JonnyDBrit
Member
Don't believe it till it's actually dead and buried, US-Gaf
Same. Maybe Im just paranoid after the 2016 elections, but I feel like its being set up as being dead before then being passed and becoming a huge success, against all odds!
Horseticuffs
Full werewolf off the buckle
Ha! Trump will never get elected, guys. We should all just chill and enjoy the victory!
Yes, because this complacent attitude didn't win Trump the election the first time around.
It's not just him. One of the benefits of the Senate is that in situations like this, individual Senators can tell their bosses to shove it, because they will outlast them.
McCain wasn't one of these, but there are enough other Senators who get screwed electorally if Medicaid is scaled back that the leadership isn't going to get to 50+1 votes AND get this through a second vote in the house.
Horseticuffs
Full werewolf off the buckle
Earthstrike
Member
The correct game theoretic conclusion on this matter, is to treat the bill as alive until it is actually dead.
Zero fuckups. Zero mistakes. Only correct decisions.
Zero fuckups. Zero mistakes. Only correct decisions.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
Pretty much. They'll try again some day.
...while being deeply concerned about some of its contents.
Such a maverick.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The Republicans will say their bill is not partisan because some on their side will be against it, and use that as proof that it's the Democrats' turn to compromise, and try to get a few of them to sign to make up for the votes lost on their own side.
The threshold that will define if the bill is an improvement or not over ACA is how much people believe ACA should be repealed, which is relative to how long from now the bill is ready. But that is based on the currently held belief that ACA can only get less popular over time as it "implodes". If it does implode, then the Dems will have the shorter end of the stick and will be pushed to vote for a "non-partisan bill" that is worst than ACA. If it doesn't implode then the Dems will have an advantage in pushing the GOP to either give up or pass something better.
The threshold that will define if the bill is an improvement or not over ACA is how much people believe ACA should be repealed, which is relative to how long from now the bill is ready. But that is based on the currently held belief that ACA can only get less popular over time as it "implodes". If it does implode, then the Dems will have the shorter end of the stick and will be pushed to vote for a "non-partisan bill" that is worst than ACA. If it doesn't implode then the Dems will have an advantage in pushing the GOP to either give up or pass something better.
Yeah. People say they won't try next year due to elections, but I figure that's where the pressure will really be on to get something passed.
MrSaturn99
Member
They say the senators' phonelines aren't as full anymore, but I couldn't get through Toomey's phone/mailbox today. Maybe the pressure finally got to them.
Good thread about the latest healthcare status: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/884095671397167105
Remember when everyone thought the House bill was dead?
victreeb3l
Member
Keep calling your senators. I dont trust what these guys have to say.
Poor GRIMES
Banned
mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
ok old man I don't believe you
ok old man I don't believe you
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Translation: it will be passed within a month.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
I don't believe your lies.
Good thread about the latest healthcare status: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/884095671397167105
Remember when everyone thought the House bill was dead?
The house bill was passed knowing that it wouldn't be unchanged after going through the Senate. It was passed for a photo-op.
Good thread about the latest healthcare status: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/884095671397167105
Remember when everyone thought the House bill was dead?
Was there ever actually a point though where anyone in the GOP actually came out and said, 'this bill is dead,' though? I agree, we shouldn't let our guard down, but this feels fairly significant. McConnell does have a lot of ways he can go, definitely, but it's such a delicate process that once you pull one way, you threaten another way, and so on and so forth. It really just comes down to whether or not a handful of Senators are willing to go full-on kamikaze like they were in the House. They may still yet, but they also probably remember, too, how universally unpopular it was to do so, and how Trump threw them under the bus shortly after.
The Last Wizard
Member
Operation Lull the Populace is in full effect I see.
Autodidact
Banned
The House passed the bill because Trump really wanted a win and because they reasoned the Senate would fix it. Well, the Senate can't fix it.
Yes, we should be vigilant, but you can't really compare this scenario to the House vote at all. The Senate can't pass the potato to someone else.
If that's the operation they are running, they are doing a bad job. I don't think anything has caught the attention of the populace like the healthcare bull in a long, long time. They really just can't sneak this one out. I mean, yeah, they can try, and they may still, but they aren't going to do it without the backlash, that much is pretty clear at this point.
Gentleman Jack
Member
Don't believe a word of what John McCain says.
That said, hope springs eternal.
That said, hope springs eternal.
tearsintherain
Member
Passing the current bill would be suicide for the GOP, it will be a lot easier to campaign in 2018 and 2020 on "The GOP took away your medicaid".
Doing absolutely nothing and letting Obamacare roll along in whatever weird mutated thing its turning into is much simpler politically for the GOP, and harder on the dems - the messaging in 2018 / 2020 isn't a simple one, but a more convoluted "The GOP said they would fix Obamacare but they didn't do anything and now your stuff is kinda fucked up but because the GOP didn't revise Obamacare, they just let it sit untouched".
Its honestly a bit baffling how many GOP members are still trying to get the medicaid expansion rollbacks passed, its literally the biggest talking point that would be used against them in their biggest voting bloc. Rich people won't really give a shit about a few thousand less they have to pay in insurance fees, the ones who only care about economic govt policies are never gonna change parties anyways. I guess the only possible thing I can think of is some of the GOP pols think passing it will help them get private sector jobs down the line? Or maybe they are really ideologically driven by "don't give poor people any help", but
I just can't understand how that jives with "well, a lot of people on medicaid are poor white people who vote republican".
Doing absolutely nothing and letting Obamacare roll along in whatever weird mutated thing its turning into is much simpler politically for the GOP, and harder on the dems - the messaging in 2018 / 2020 isn't a simple one, but a more convoluted "The GOP said they would fix Obamacare but they didn't do anything and now your stuff is kinda fucked up but because the GOP didn't revise Obamacare, they just let it sit untouched".
Its honestly a bit baffling how many GOP members are still trying to get the medicaid expansion rollbacks passed, its literally the biggest talking point that would be used against them in their biggest voting bloc. Rich people won't really give a shit about a few thousand less they have to pay in insurance fees, the ones who only care about economic govt policies are never gonna change parties anyways. I guess the only possible thing I can think of is some of the GOP pols think passing it will help them get private sector jobs down the line? Or maybe they are really ideologically driven by "don't give poor people any help", but
I just can't understand how that jives with "well, a lot of people on medicaid are poor white people who vote republican".
hammysaurusrex
Member
It's not that I think McCain is outright lying so much as he doesn't realize he now belongs to the GOP nursing home - the old guard senators that constantly confuse their senility with seniority. I'm skeptical he has any clue about the health of the healthcare bill, good or bad, since the Senate has long moved passed him needing to be in the loop on everything.
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