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July 2004 NPD Preview (+ comparisons from last year & month)

Meier

Member
Holy smokes, GCN had 11 of the top 40 selling titles last month compared to Xbox's 10. Never would have seen that coming.
 

border

Member
Meier said:
Holy smokes, GCN had 11 of the top 40 selling titles last month compared to Xbox's 10. Never would have seen that coming.
Only if you count a game that was not actually in the Top 40 =P
 
jedimike said:
What's an ASP?

Average Selling Price. It's a big deal to the financial folks as there are signicant pressures to the $49.99 price point holding on. The first is the tremendous amount of catalog (older) games sold as well as new releases tanking at $49.99 and having their prices dropped with 30-60 days.
 

cvxfreak

Member
I think the GC's biggest software titles will be continuing sales from the budget line-ups as well as older titles from early in the year. In addition to Tales of Symphonia, I expect continuing sales from Sonic Adventure DX, Sonic Mega Collection, Soul Calibur II, Super Smash Bros. Melee, Pokemon Colosseum, Mario Kart: Double Dash, Mega Man Anniversary Collection, Zelda: Four Swords and Harvest Moon: AWL.

For the PS2, I expect the sports games to reign supreme, and on Xbox, whatever new exclusive they got last month, Halo, FSW and Chronicles of Riddick.
 

SyNapSe

Member
CVXFREAK said:
For the PS2, I expect the sports games to reign supreme, and on Xbox, whatever new exclusive they got last month, Halo, FSW and Chronicles of Riddick.

It will probably be NCAA Football for both Xbox and PS2
 

Alcibiades

Member
Acclaim Entertainment (AKLM—Hold)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Acclaim generated approximately $5 million in sales for the month (compared with $6 million last month and $6 million last July). We expect sales to be driven by Legends of Wrestling: SHOWDOWN and All-Star Baseball 2005, along with older catalog sales of All-Star Baseball, NBA Jam, ATV Quad Power Racing, Burnout, Mary Kate & Ashley, Legends of Wrestling, and Turok.

Activision (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Activision generated approximately $45 million in sales for the month (compared with $43 million last month and $11 million last July). We expect that Spider-Man 2 sold 600,000 units combined in its second month (on top of the 442,000 units sold last month). We expect that Shrek 2 continued to sell well in its third month of release, with an additional 200,000 units sold. We also expect continued strong sales of Activision’s catalog games.

Atari (ATAR—Buy)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Atari generated approximately $15 million in sales for the month (compared with $26 million last month and $16 million last July). We believe that sales were led by DRIV3R, which we estimate sold 200,000 units combined in its second month (on top of the 238,000 units sold last month). We believe sales were also led by the company’s catalog sales of Dragon Ball Z and Backyard Sports games.

Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy)
Releases during July: NCAA Football 2005 (PS2, GC, Xbox), Catwoman (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).

We estimate that EA generated $75 million in sales for the month (compared with $61 million last month and $59 million last July). We expect sales to be led by NCAA Football 2005, which we expect sold over 800,000 units combined. We expect to see continued strong sales of Fight Night, James Bond, NFL Street, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor as well as from NBA Live, SSX, Harry Potter, Madden NFL, NCAA Football, Tiger Woods Golf, and NASCAR Thunder.

Midway Games (MWY—Hold)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Midway generated $10 million in sales for the month (compared with $12 million last month and $5 million last July). We expect sales to be led by catalog sales of NBA Ballers, PSI-Ops, MLB Slugfest, SpyHunter, and Mortal Kombat titles.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during July: ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $19 million in sales for the month (compared with $17 million last month and $12 million last July). We believe that ESPN NFL 2K5 sold 300,000 units combined in its first month of release. We expect that catalog sales were lead by Red Dead Revolver, Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm.

THQ (THQI—Hold)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that THQ generated $20 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $27 million last month and $18 million last July). We expect Full Spectrum Warrior to sell 100,000 units in its second month of release (on top of the 190,000 units sold in its first month). We expect continued strong sales of MX Unleashed, WWE, Nickelodeon, Finding Nemo, and Tak and the Power of JuJu titles. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA

here are some estimated predictions from these guys... man, I hope 2k5 did way more than that, that's super-low in my opinion...
 

Mrbob

Member
B E N K E said:
How many days is that for ESPN?

Between 7-9 days, depending on when a store got their shipment. Now that I see that 300K number, I predict 165K sold on Xbox and 135K sold on PS2.

For reference, ESPN2K4 sold about 150K the first month. Xbox version sold like 85K and PS2 version 65K, if I remember correctly. ESPN2K4 had about three weeks in Septeember to sell.

I expect the August sold through number to be higher than the July number.
 

Flatbread

Member
Activision (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Activision generated approximately $45 million in sales for the month (compared with $43 million last month and $11 million last July). We expect that Spider-Man 2 sold 600,000 units combined in its second month (on top of the 442,000 units sold last month). We expect that Shrek 2 continued to sell well in its third month of release, with an additional 200,000 units sold. We also expect continued strong sales of Activision’s catalog games.

Atari (ATAR—Buy)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Atari generated approximately $15 million in sales for the month (compared with $26 million last month and $16 million last July). We believe that sales were led by DRIV3R, which we estimate sold 200,000 units combined in its second month (on top of the 238,000 units sold last month). We believe sales were also led by the company’s catalog sales of Dragon Ball Z and Backyard Sports games.

Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy)
Releases during July: NCAA Football 2005 (PS2, GC, Xbox), Catwoman (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA, PC).

We estimate that EA generated $75 million in sales for the month (compared with $61 million last month and $59 million last July). We expect sales to be led by NCAA Football 2005, which we expect sold over 800,000 units combined. We expect to see continued strong sales of Fight Night, James Bond, NFL Street, Need For Speed Underground, Lord of the Rings and Medal of Honor as well as from NBA Live, SSX, Harry Potter, Madden NFL, NCAA Football, Tiger Woods Golf, and NASCAR Thunder.

Midway Games (MWY—Hold)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that Midway generated $10 million in sales for the month (compared with $12 million last month and $5 million last July). We expect sales to be led by catalog sales of NBA Ballers, PSI-Ops, MLB Slugfest, SpyHunter, and Mortal Kombat titles.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)
Releases during July: ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2, Xbox).

We estimate that Take-Two generated $19 million in sales for the month (compared with $17 million last month and $12 million last July). We believe that ESPN NFL 2K5 sold 300,000 units combined in its first month of release. We expect that catalog sales were lead by Red Dead Revolver, Grand Theft Auto, Max Payne, Midnight Club, and Conflict: Desert Storm.

THQ (THQI—Hold)
Releases during July: None.

We estimate that THQ generated $20 million in retail sales for the month (compared with $27 million last month and $18 million last July). We expect Full Spectrum Warrior to sell 100,000 units in its second month of release (on top of the 190,000 units sold in its first month). We expect continued strong sales of MX Unleashed, WWE, Nickelodeon, Finding Nemo, and Tak and the Power of JuJu titles. We expect THQ to continue to benefit from strong Nintendo GBA+

I think these predictions are on the high side

they predict 800,000 for ncaa-> closer to 600,000
they predict 200,000 for driver3 -> closer to 150,000
they predict 300,000 for espnnfl2k5 -> closer to 400,000
they predict 600,000 for spiderman 2 -> closer to 450,000
they predict 200,000 for shrek 2 -> closer to 125,000
they predict 100,000 for fsw -> closer to 75,000

Are the npd's coming out this week or next?
 

Jumpman

Member
sonycowboy said:
Code:
[b]Top 20 Selling Console Games July 03[/b]
Format  Title                       Publisher                            Jul-03
PS2     NCAA FOOTBALL 2004          ELECTRONIC ARTS                     495,093
XBX     SW: KNIGHTS REPUBLIC        LUCASARTS                           299,597
XBX     NCAA FOOTBALL 2004          ELECTRONIC ARTS                     128,301
PS2     GRAND THEFT AUTO 3          TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP)            93,011
PS2     GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE       TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP)            66,384
PS2     NBA STREET VOL 2            ELECTRONIC ARTS                      61,134
GCN     MARIO GOLF: TOADSTOOL       NINTENDO OF AMERICA                  60,684
PS2     ENTER THE MATRIX            ATARI                                60,263
PS2     BIG MUTHA TRUCKERS          THQ                                  58,852
PS2     MIDNIGHT CLUB II            TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP)            56,896
GCN     ZELDA: THE WIND WAKER       NINTENDO OF AMERICA                  52,599
PS2     TOMB RAIDER: ANGEL          EIDOS INTERACTIVE (CORP)             50,883
GCN     SONIC ADVT DX DIR CUT       SEGA OF AMERICA                      48,398
XBX     HALO                        MICROSOFT (CORP)                     43,402
GCN     SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE       NINTENDO OF AMERICA                  43,033
PS2     SPIDER-MAN: THE MOVIE       ACTIVISION                           40,980
GCN     WARIO WORLD                 NINTENDO OF AMERICA                  40,337
PS2     HULK                        VIVENDI UNIVERSAL (CORP)             36,280
PS2     GRAN TURISMO 3:A-SPEC       SONY (CORP)                          36,096
PS2     PAC-MAN WORLD 2             NAMCO                                32,587

Sonycowboy, do you happen to have similar software numbers for April 2003 and June 2003?
 
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