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Kutaragi: Blu-ray-HD-DVD deal dead

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gofreak

GAF's Bob Woodward
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/06/09/news_6127225.html

Kutaragi: Blu-ray-HD-DVD deal dead

Sony Computer Entertainment president says there's little chance of a unified disc format becoming a reality; Toshiba's president concurs.

TOKYO--Just over two months ago, a truce was declared in the three-year war between the Blu-ray and HD-DVD factions as Sony and Toshiba began negotiations on a unified next-generation disc standard. However, talks fell apart after Toshiba announced last month that it has no plans to accept Blu-ray's disc structure as the base for a unified standard.

Talking to the press on June 8, Sony Computer Entertainment president Ken Kutaragi offered his own view on the issue of a unified next-generation disc standard for the first time. He commented that he made the decision to adopt the Blu-ray disc format for the PlayStation 3 because he thinks the chances of coming up with a unified disc standard in the future are slim. "There's very little chance that the negotiations will go through," stated Kutaragi, who said "product planning" for the PS3's launch forced a decision on Sony.

Sony and Toshiba each announced its own unique next-generation disc format in 2002, and each has been vying to have its standard adopted ever since. The two sides began negotiations for a unified disc standard in February, fearing a repeat of the VHS-versus-Betamax wars of the early '80s. (Sony was the owner of the Betamax format.) The negotiations were broken on May 16 by Toshiba, which stated that its HD-DVD disc structure would be better suited than Sony’s Blu-ray for use in a unified standard, since it would be more convenient to both consumers and Hollywood film studios in terms of cost.

Analysts see the chances of Toshiba and Sony coming to an agreement as virtually impossible, since both companies see their format as superior. Sony's main focus has been capacity, while Toshiba's has been cost of production.

In a recent interview with Mainichi Interactive, Sony Blu-ray management director Kiyoshi Nishitani was not optimistic. "There's too much difference between our beliefs," he said. "The Blu-ray can record 50GB, but the HD-DVD can only record 30GB. Without 50GB of capacity, we can't answer the demands of long hours of high-definition video recording and high-quality extras. The HD-DVD camp is saying that we don't need that much capacity, but it will be required in the future."

Yoshihide Fujii, managing director at Toshiba, expressed similar doubts about a unified format. "Toshiba has no plans to agree with Sony," he said. "Most movie studios have said that the HD-DVD's 30GB capacity is enough. Normal households use HDs for long hours of recordings, and they record whatever they want to save long-term onto DVDs. So there's really no need for a recording media with an extreme capacity. The consumers are most concerned about inexpensive media. Therefore, the HD is better than the Blu-ray, since it can be manufactured by current DVD production machines and costs less to create."

Gamespot's headline may perhaps be calling a conclusion before there is one, officially, but at the very least it's not looking very good for an agreement..
 
These new formats are both going to fail. Maybe HD-DVD to a lesser extent. The consumer is not ready for a new format.

DVD's are just hitting their prime in the market, the timing of this is horrible. Are DVD's already reaching their technical limits, of course, but someone who isn't HT-Joe isn't really noticing or giving a damn.
 
hmm get HD DVD this winter or wait till spring for PS3...

bah will probably end up with both anyways ;P
 
Sal Paradise Jr said:
These new formats are both going to fail. Maybe HD-DVD to a lesser extent. The consumer is not ready for a new format.

DVD's are just hitting their prime in the market, the timing of this is horrible. Are DVD's already reaching their technical limits, of course, but someone who isn't HT-Joe isn't really noticing or giving a damn.

Well, PS3 will certainly help to put Blu Ray ahead of the game.
 
Sony is in the killer postion of having the PS3 in their corner. They'll gain a ton of marketshare selling those things.
 
Sal Paradise Jr said:
Ahead of the game for what? 2nd place?

The most popular formats 3 years from now will be:

1.DVD










2.BR?/HDDVD?

Ahead of the game for next-gen format wars. No next-gen console will support HD-DVD. Only one console will be supporting BLu Ray; this gives it a pretty damn good advantage.
 
Yet more spin and selective quoting from Gamespot. The Toshiba guy specifically said that he could imagine the two formats existing for a short period of time before moving to a unified format. And Ken is just doing his usual huffing. It's all positioning for the endgame.
 
For the gaming industry, BR vs HD-DVD doesn't matter anyway. If BR is nothing more than a proprietary format for PS3, it will do fine. Standardized formats used for gaming are the exception, not the rule. Only PS1, PS2 and XBox, right? Every other major console has used a proprietary format. That Sony and all the BR Forum partners will be pushing it, with PS3 as the trojan horse of course, it will most likely be a "successful" format, even if it doesn't hit its stride for a couple years.
 
This is pissing me off. I want to buy a few movies in HD but I'm not going to do it until there's a single format.
 
according to This site the grand total right now in the US alone is 88,935,370, and I doubt that includes PS2 and Xbox sales, or PC-DVD sales. Point being that PS2 makes for less than 20% of DVD players sold, if that (I'd say it's a lot closer to 10% or even 5% with PCs). And while that is a pretty big piece of the pie it's nowhere near enough to sustain a format.

Interesting to see though that player sales seem to have slowed this year. But on the tail end there's still about double that many players to sell, not including the PS2 when it drops to $99. So the issue isn't BR vs HDDVD, it's BR vs HDDVD vs DVD, in which case DVD rocks both of them to hell, and the fact that the HD versions are competing means they each take LESS marketshare which will make them die sooner. I mean maybe if there was a unified format they could live as a healthy niche market like Laserdiscs, but competing against one another... it won't even affect the consumer, they'll get fed up and stick with what they know.
 
Guy LeDouche said:
Only PS1, PS2 and XBox, right? Every other major console has used a proprietary format.
From what I understand GameCube's GOD format is actually just mini-DVD with added copy protection (just like PS2/Xbox being full sized DVD with added copy protection). Sega Saturn is also what I'd call a "major console" and it used CD-ROM.
 
as far as i'm concerned blue ray is another UMD meaning a sony specific format that doesnt affect mainstream america.
 
rastex said:
according to This site the grand total right now in the US alone is 88,935,370, and I doubt that includes PS2 and Xbox sales, or PC-DVD sales. Point being that PS2 makes for less than 20% of DVD players sold, if that (I'd say it's a lot closer to 10% or even 5% with PCs). And while that is a pretty big piece of the pie it's nowhere near enough to sustain a format.

What are you talking about? 30mn devices is not enough for a format to thrive? UMD is doing quite well with an installed base of a million or so. Movie studios will be all over BR once PS3 is out.
 
teiresias said:
fixed it for you

eh? unless you expect 100 million+ HDTVs to be hold within the next 2 years and for allllll those people to buy into BR the format isnt going anywhere. DVD will remain. face it. just as UMD is a format specific to the PSP, BR will end up being specific to the HT freaks and PS3 owners. theres just no way in hell BR will topple DVD. people who think there will just be some rapid changeover are just insane period.
 
I agree that neither of these hi def formats will have a major impact 3 years from now. Do you really want to rebuy your entire DVD collection again? I don't. However, looking long term, I see bigger benefit to Blu Ray than HD-DVD if PS3 is a monster like PS2. Sony can continue the legacy with including Blu Ray in PS4. By then PS3 units will be cheap (99 bucks) and an intro model to the Blu Ray HD family. 5-7 years from now could be the real kicker. I think Sony is just looking into the future with Blu Ray. It is coming a bit ahead of time but it doesn't hurt to plan ahead.
 
Barnimal said:
eh? unless you expect 100 million+ HDTVs to be hold within the next 2 years and for allllll those people to buy into BR the format isnt going anywhere. DVD will remain. face it. just as UMD is a format specific to the PSP, BR will end up being specific to the HT freaks and PS3 owners. theres just no way in hell BR will topple DVD. people who think there will just be some rapid changeover are just insane period.
anyone have the data on when DVD finally surpassed VHS? I know it took awhile.

Format transitions are never planned as an overnight event, or even within a year or two.
 
Mrbob said:
I agree that neither of these hi def formats will have a major impact 3 years from now. Do you really want to rebuy your entire DVD collection again? I don't. However, looking long term, I see bigger benefit to Blu Ray than HD-DVD if PS3 is a monster like PS2. Sony can continue the legacy with including Blu Ray in PS4. By then PS3 units will be cheap (99 bucks) and an intro model to the Blu Ray HD family. 5-7 years from now could be the real kicker. I think Sony is just looking into the future with Blu Ray. It is coming a bit ahead of time but it doesn't hurt to plan ahead.

The problem is by the time most households have a HDTV there might be far superior formats available than blu-ray.. I think high-defs dvds are cool for storage and recording and such, but still way too early. I'd rather see a 100gb single layer be the next big standard in a few more years..
 
Barnimal said:
eh? blah, blah, blah . . .

Blu-Ray is in no way a Sony specific format. If you think the PS3 is going to be the only available Blu-Ray capable player you're insane. Hi-Def discs, period, are going to be niche for a while though.
 
Mrbob said:
I agree that neither of these hi def formats will have a major impact 3 years from now. Do you really want to rebuy your entire DVD collection again? I don't.

You don't have to. Just start buying hidef dvds from that point on instead of DVDs, maybe replace some favourites. Heck, your bluray or hddvd player may upconvert your DVDs to hi-def resolutions too (obviously not as good quality as native hidef sources, but still better than what you had before, from your existing collection of media).
 
Standardized formats used for gaming are the exception, not the rule. Only PS1, PS2 and XBox, right? Every other major console has used a proprietary format.


I think co-opting standardized media has quickly become the rule since the advent of optical media, not the exception.

"Only PS1, PS2 and XBox" covers a lot of ground. And if you include the fact that the GC's format is derived from DVD like jarrod mentioned, and include the Saturn and Dreamcast, that's like 90% of consoles sold in the last 10 years.
 
Rhindle said:
Yet more spin and selective quoting from Gamespot. The Toshiba guy specifically said that he could imagine the two formats existing for a short period of time before moving to a unified format. And Ken is just doing his usual huffing. It's all positioning for the endgame.
Oh, much clearer and less selective, yes. So what's a "short time" in Toshiba guy's mind, how long will that actually be in reality, and does he really mean unification or is he just hoping BD dies off? :)

Guy LeDouche said:
anyone have the data on when DVD finally surpassed VHS? I know it took awhile.
Yearly VCR Sales hit their peak in 2000, 4 yrs after DVD was introduced. DVD didn't surpass that sales peak until a couple of years later, from the looks of it.

http://www.ce.org/publications/books_references/digital_america/video/vcrs_face_digital_future.asp

Meanwhile, yearly DVD sales have apparently already peaked in advance of a successor format.

http://www.ce.org/publications/books_references/digital_america/video/dvd_hits_peak.asp
 
What does this mean?
confused.gif
Is the PS3 cancelled?
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
I think Blockbuster and Netflix has something to do with this though
To clarify, I meant DVD players, not DVD software. DVD software sales don't appear to have peaked yet.
 
Blue-Ray has the advantage of PS3 to push it forward, do you guys think that Toshiba might approach Nintendo to use the HD-DVD format in order to compete?

I didn't say Xbox 360 because that console has been finalized with DVD as their format, while Nintendo hasn't made its choice clear yet.
 
More than a confirmed partner, Matsushita/Panasonic is one of the Blu-ray Founders.

Edit: Gotcha, Fitz.
 
kaching said:
More than a confirmed partner, Matsushita/Panasonic is one of the Blu-ray Founders.

I think he's talking about whether Panasonic has been confirmed to be partnering with Nintendo and the Revolution as they did with the GC (from "Q" to "R" maybe?)
 
Behold the future...

30GB Credit-Card Sized Holographic Disc by Optware

Posted on Thursday, June 09 2005 @ 12:00:00 CDT by i4u Other Stuff
30GB Credit-Card Sized Optical Disc by Optware Future Technology News technology Review The Optware Holographic Versatile Card (HVC) is only as big as a credit-card but stores 30GB of data.

30GB is about 6 times more than a DVD can store and in closer to the capacity of next generation DVD formats like Blu-ray or HD DVD.

A HVC costs about 90 cents. A HVC drive is supposed to cost $1,800.
I am not sure where the market for the Optware HVC holographic disc will be.
More details on Nikkei.net (Subscription) and on the Optware site.

optware_hvc.jpg


http://www.i4u.com/article3615.html

i wonder if they can make smaller versions for pda's, cell phones, or other portable devices.
 
Toshiba going for cost is crazy. HD movies will be sold initially to videophiles, and studios will sell them at a premium. So a few extra cents per unit is nothing. And costs will come down.

In the early days of DVD, studios used single layer, or double sided discs rather than dual layer, due to cost. But rapidly moved to dual layer, and now two/three discs.

Single/dual layer BR will be fine initially, and *if* larger capacities are desired, for TV series/box sets, that can use muiltiple discs until 3, 4 layers are cost effective.
 
Mrbob said:
I agree that neither of these hi def formats will have a major impact 3 years from now. Do you really want to rebuy your entire DVD collection again? I don't.
Not whole, some definitely. Remember that you still can play all those DVDs on any BR player or PS3. On the other hand, I see no reason whatsoever to contiue buying new DVD movies if I can buy the same movie on BluRay.
 
This is pertinent to topic. FCC moved up date on conversion of all TV's to accept Digital signal.

The Federal Communications Commission voted 4-0 to require that all medium-sized televisions, those with screens from 25 to 36 inches, be capable of receiving both digital and traditional analog signals by March 1, four months earlier than the commission had decreed three years ago. Regulators also retained a requirement that half of all new mid-size televisions have the capability by July 1.

The commission also proposed moving the deadline for all small TVs -- those 13 to 24 inches -- to have digital tuners to the end of 2006, rather than the July 1, 2007, deadline the regulators set in 2002. That proposal will be voted on later, after a period of public comment.

cnn FCC article

The quicker the televisions can get into homes by default of any TV purchase the better.
 
akascream said:
Sony always tries to push thier own formats, and they always lose.

You don't seem to be able to read. As has been stated about 1,000 times on this forum, Blu-ray is not Sony's format. But go on believing what you'd like.
 
I won't embrace "HD era" until there's god damn standard!
Common, i ain't buying my movie on HD-DVD or Blue-Ray to buy it again in 3 years or whatever "short time" means.
Viva los DVDs. VHS has been there for 10 year +, DVD is achieving 10 years. Now gimme a new single format for at least 10 years. If they don't do so the mainstream people (sales) won't embark anyway.

EDIT: i also hope the TVs get a standard of screen technologies and connections too. It pisses me off that there's 42398574082 ways to connect to your TVs now. You can buy a freaking 2000 dollar TV that won't worth shit in 5 years. TV should last 10 years without a itch AT THE VERY LEAST.
 
Firest0rm said:
Is Panasonic a confirmed partner again?
Not yet, but NEC is... I could actually see Nintendo going for HD-DVD if given *very* favorable terms by NEC/Toshiba. The ball's in their court really.
 
I actually agree. The world isn't ready for a HD generation yet. DVD's will be the way to go for the next like 5 years anyway, why fight it? Use that time to come up with an even better format, and to negotiate a deal between Sony / Toshiba. 5 years is a perfect amount of time to come up with a 'super' format that both sides agree on. They already have the High Defenition part in common, make use of it and get a good, high quality, super space consuming encoding standard going too.
 
Drexon said:
The world isn't ready for a HD generation yet.
Guy already touched on this earlier in the thread and I offered a few links with background data.

The "world" is never ready, all at once, to jump to a new technology format. No one ever waits to launch a new technology format until the world is ready. If that were the case, we'd never get ANY new technology format - no new TV format, no new video format, no new consoles, etc. The world becomes "ready" by seeing a new tech format in action at stores, in advertising, with friends/family who own, etc. The first 2-3 years of sales of a new tech format never represent the majority of its lifetime sales, if it goes on to be a successful, long-lived tech format. DVD took 4 yrs to really get off the ground and gain the interest of the "world". Its now the most popular video format thus far, yet VHS video continues to be sold alongside it to this day. The world isn't quite so incapable of handling multiple formats as some of you like to claim.

The number of people who own HD displays is only going to grow over time and already numbers in the 10-15 million range now, BEFORE we even have an HD video format available. Asking this group that is only going to grow in size to wait at least 5yrs before a prerecorded video format emerges that takes advantage of the full resolution of those displays just because the "world" isn't ready is utterly ridiculous. It also be career suicide if you happen to be working at a CE company and were in charge of the decision to pass on an emerging market like this, giving competitors a full 5 yr lead time. :)
 
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