Mario 64 DS one of the holiday's big sellers?

Speevy

Banned
It's on the Gamestop and EBGames website best seller lists. How many copies do you guys think this will sell during the holidays?
 
Matlock said:
I predict: 278k.

You're joking, right?

Can't be a big seller when there aren't many NDS units

Same to you.

The DS is going to sell likely a million units in America by Xmas, and you can bet your ass that the attach rate for SM64DS will be at least 50%.

So if we assume that the lowball estimates of 1M systems and 50% attach rate are right that's still 500,000 copies.
 
They'll have 1 million units by Christmas? I don't know how many units they're planning to ship so I assumed there was gonna be a major shortage this year
 
1M for America and 1M for japan is what was quoted, and that was before nintendo outsourced production to a third plant thanks to higher than expected demand.
 
It'll break a million. My guess. Maybe I'm optimistic, but have you seen DS' launch lineup? I don't know anyone with a DS and without Mario 64.
 
IIRC, Nintendo intends to ship 1 million into the US at the end of the fiscal year which ends in March IIRC. I expect Mario 64 DS to come in at under half the number of systems sold. I don't see it's tie ratio being compared to Halo or the original Super Mario 64 or Tetris or Super Mario World (All had very high tie-in rates for their consoles and were very, very popular). SM64DS is just not on that level.
 
The Abominable Snowman said:
IIRC, Nintendo intends to ship 1 million into the US at the end of the fiscal year which ends in March IIRC. I expect Mario 64 DS to come in at under half the number of systems sold. I don't see it's tie ratio being compared to Halo or the original Super Mario 64 or Tetris or Super Mario World (All had very high tie-in rates for their consoles and were very, very popular). SM64DS is just not on that level.


Actually its 1 million for launch window (500k US/500k JPN), and they upped it from 3.5 mil to 4 mil by the end of FY 2004 (March)
 
krypt0nian said:
Actually its 1 million for launch window (500k US/500k JPN), and they upped it from 3.5 mil to 4 mil by the end of FY 2004 (March)
Alright, so they're pushing 500K for the US? Everything I stated was in relation to the US, Not worldwide. I'm expecting a 40-65% tie-in with systems. So take the numbers of systems sold in the US and Mario 64 DS sales should fall in between 40% and 65% of DS consoles sold.

Edit: I should point out that this is just initially, and as time goes on HOPEFULLY the tie ratio will drop.
 
I am regretting my purchase too. I just realise that's i'm going to have to wait a few months for worthy titles. The new warioware is gonna be interesting, but i really feel like its gnna be a reworked version of the gba games.

I got bored of mario64 in a freaking evening.
 
I'm seeing the tie in rate for Mario64 at launch bing closer to 80% due toi the percieved weak launch line up.

Either way it will be interesting. The fact that the haterz are out in full force means there is some real threat they percieve. :lol
 
krypt0nian said:
I'm seeing the tie in rate for Mario64 at launch bing closer to 80% due toi the percieved weak launch line up.

Either way it will be interesting. The fact that the haterz are out in full force means there is some real threat they percieve. :lol
Yeah the threat of poorly designed, underpowered, gimmicky Handhelds with no games worth purchasing.

And ive already succumbed to it.
 
DeadStar said:
Yeah the threat of poorly designed, underpowered, gimmicky Handhelds with no games worth purchasing.

And ive already succumbed to it.


Well then I love me some poorly designed, underpowered, gimmicky Handhelds with no games worth purchasing! Odd that I am enjoying the hell out of it more than most games in the last year.

Think of how good it will be when the haters start liking the games.


Thanks for clearing that up! :)
 
krypt0nian said:
I'm seeing the tie in rate for Mario64 at launch bing closer to 80% due toi the percieved weak launch line up.

Either way it will be interesting. The fact that the haterz are out in full force means there is some real threat they percieve. :lol
I don't think 80% is possible, is it? Sonic Adventure nor Halo nor Super Mario Advance nor Tetris nor Super Mario World got that high. The only title I can recall having that high a tie-in is the original Super Mario 64. I doubt any title will get that high again, unless it's some new step in the direction of gaming that blows everyone's mind in a neat, perfect package.

Super Mario 64 DS isn't that

Plus it's launched with well over 6 titles, one of which being that Metroid, right? Plus Backwards Compatibility which drops that down even lower.
 
krypt0nian said:
Actually its 1 million for launch window (500k US/500k JPN), and they upped it from 3.5 mil to 4 mil by the end of FY 2004 (March)

The number is actually 1 million for both markets -- so 2 million worldwide by the end of the year.
 
Meier said:
The number is actually 1 million for both markets -- so 2 million worldwide by the end of the year.


2 mil is correct.

With most people buying at least Mario, its could be fairly stunning in the sales dept.
 
It'll definintely be at least 50%. You could argue that Spiderman or Madden have greater name recognition, but nothing in the launch, launch window even, carries more weight among gamers in general than Mario. To those who's first Nintendo system was an NES, SNES, or N64, Mario == Nintendo and vice versa.
 
GDJustin said:
No, it's 1 million for EACH market, 2M total for launch window.

Yeah, that's what I've heard.

Nintendo will sell 1m DS in US and Japan by xmas without any problem whatsoever.

And Mario 64 DS will sell 700-800k in both markets by xmas as well.

The DS will be huge!
 
I haven't been watching TV or been at work lately, so I don't know how well the system/games are doing. A blind guess says that there will be around 575,000 SM64 DSes sold in the US this year, and around 700,000-900,000 systems.
 
wazoo said:
SM Advance sold like crazy and was a much poorer game in terms of extras.

The thing is, the DS has a very limited release (for a Nintendo handheld). Games rarely ever sell on a 1:1 ratio, and SM64 DS will be no exception.
 
AniHawk said:
The thing is, the DS has a very limited release (for a Nintendo handheld). Games rarely ever sell on a 1:1 ratio, and SM64 DS will be no exception.

I think it will sell with a better attach ratio than most other launch games. SMA sold about 2.2m in total, about 1.2 of that was in the first year (went on sale June if I remember correct). I think 700k or so for Nov / Dec is a reasonable amount for SM64DS to sell.

It'll probably get close to 2.5m or so before it's finished though, so give it a chance!!
 
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