Mario 64 DS one of the holiday's big sellers?
- Thread starter Speevy
- Start date
Matlock said:
You're joking, right?
Same to you.
The DS is going to sell likely a million units in America by Xmas, and you can bet your ass that the attach rate for SM64DS will be at least 50%.
So if we assume that the lowball estimates of 1M systems and 50% attach rate are right that's still 500,000 copies.
krypt0nian
Banned
Matlock said:
THis won't be one of your better predictions. :lol
The Abominable Snowman
Member
If Nintendo intends to sell 400K units in US to the end of this year, then I expect less than 300K in sales for the new Mario. That guy's ~278 figure is about correct.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
IIRC, Nintendo intends to ship 1 million into the US at the end of the fiscal year which ends in March IIRC. I expect Mario 64 DS to come in at under half the number of systems sold. I don't see it's tie ratio being compared to Halo or the original Super Mario 64 or Tetris or Super Mario World (All had very high tie-in rates for their consoles and were very, very popular). SM64DS is just not on that level.
Jonnyboy117
Member
It'll sell huge. What's more interesting is how Feel the Magic will do.
krypt0nian
Banned
The Abominable Snowman said:
Actually its 1 million for launch window (500k US/500k JPN), and they upped it from 3.5 mil to 4 mil by the end of FY 2004 (March)
Catchpenny
Member
Will it outsell MGS3 and/or Metroid Prime 2? 
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Alright, so they're pushing 500K for the US? Everything I stated was in relation to the US, Not worldwide. I'm expecting a 40-65% tie-in with systems. So take the numbers of systems sold in the US and Mario 64 DS sales should fall in between 40% and 65% of DS consoles sold.krypt0nian said:
Edit: I should point out that this is just initially, and as time goes on HOPEFULLY the tie ratio will drop.
krypt0nian
Banned
I'm seeing the tie in rate for Mario64 at launch bing closer to 80% due toi the percieved weak launch line up.
Either way it will be interesting. The fact that the haterz are out in full force means there is some real threat they percieve. :lol
Either way it will be interesting. The fact that the haterz are out in full force means there is some real threat they percieve. :lol
krypt0nian
Banned
DeadStar said:
Well then I love me some poorly designed, underpowered, gimmicky Handhelds with no games worth purchasing! Odd that I am enjoying the hell out of it more than most games in the last year.
Think of how good it will be when the haters start liking the games.
Thanks for clearing that up!
The Abominable Snowman
Member
I don't think 80% is possible, is it? Sonic Adventure nor Halo nor Super Mario Advance nor Tetris nor Super Mario World got that high. The only title I can recall having that high a tie-in is the original Super Mario 64. I doubt any title will get that high again, unless it's some new step in the direction of gaming that blows everyone's mind in a neat, perfect package.krypt0nian said:
Super Mario 64 DS isn't that
Plus it's launched with well over 6 titles, one of which being that Metroid, right? Plus Backwards Compatibility which drops that down even lower.
krypt0nian
Banned
Meier said:
2 mil is correct.
With most people buying at least Mario, its could be fairly stunning in the sales dept.
It'll definintely be at least 50%. You could argue that Spiderman or Madden have greater name recognition, but nothing in the launch, launch window even, carries more weight among gamers in general than Mario. To those who's first Nintendo system was an NES, SNES, or N64, Mario == Nintendo and vice versa.
AniHawk said:
I think it will sell with a better attach ratio than most other launch games. SMA sold about 2.2m in total, about 1.2 of that was in the first year (went on sale June if I remember correct). I think 700k or so for Nov / Dec is a reasonable amount for SM64DS to sell.
It'll probably get close to 2.5m or so before it's finished though, so give it a chance!!