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[Frankfurter]

25M till the end of the year sounds about right (with about 13M already reached till the end of 2005). If DS continues to "struggle" (struggle is perhaps a bit to harsh, on the other hand it sold really, really bad in a few months in 2005) in the USA, it would for example sell 5M in Japan (oh man, it's crazy that I am really expecting 5M in Japan in one year :lol ), and about 7M in the rest of the world (~3.5 USA, 3 Europe, ~0.5 Other), which isn't that much for the rest of the of the world. Seriously, IF (big if!) Nintendo succeeds in breaking through with the DS in the USA and continue to sell really good in Europe (perhaps even 4M in 2006) they could easily sell about 18M in 2006 (so at the end of march 07 the user base would be about 33M).

 

[cvxfreak]

Nintendo need to make a "David Beckham" special edition DS to link with the Football World Cup and the entire Japanese nation will revert to civil war in the quest to track down DSes.

And once Japan is reunited under Emperor Satoru Iwata of the Nintendo Era, Japan will invade China in an attempt to secure more natural resources*. Then the US will want all those natural resources* for themselves and subsequently piss Japan off, starting World War III.








*Nintendo DS systems

 

[DefectiveReject]

:lol No!! I guess that the final hardware number at the end of 2006 will be around that. I thought it was 13? I wouldn't be shocked if it became 25M worldwide sales this time next year.

14.4 million was the figure released with the DSlite announcement. so by the time the DSlite launches we will probably be looking at 15million units in peoples hands.

14.4m
If japan is 6m
Europe is 4m
USA must be 3.4m+?
Others 1m?

 

[Frankfurter]

14.4 million was the figure released with the DSlite announcement. so by the time the DSlite launches we will probably be looking at 15million units in peoples hands.

Aehm nope, Nintendo shipped 14.43m till the end of 2005 and sold through 13m.

 

[maxmars]

.. Then the US will want all those Nintendo DS systems for themselves and subsequently piss Japan off, starting World War III.

Pokémon Pearl Harbor?

 

[cvxfreak]

Pokémon Pearl Harbor?

:lol

 

[soundwave05]

I don't think DS really has to "break out" in North America.

At $99 with the new design and the inevitable Pokemon/New Super Mario/Tetris DS ... it'll simply just replace the GBA at worst.

Shipments for DS will definitely be above 15 million by the time DS Lite launches. I'm thinking really DS Lite could add an additional 1 million to Nintendo's fiscal year totals very quickly.

 

[Link1110]

Pokémon Pearl Harbor?

Hey, Chimpokomon did it, so why not?

 

[DefectiveReject]

Aehm nope, Nintendo shipped 14.43m till the end of 2005 and sold through 13m.

wow i get to bust someones ass!
Here goes

Nintendo President Satoru Iwata today announced Nintendo DS Lite, a slimmer version of the best-selling Nintendo DS.

Also featuring brighter screens, Nintendo DS Lite will launch in Japan in March. Nintendo DS Lite will be less than two-thirds the size of the original Nintendo DS and more than 20 percent lighter.
Nintendo Press Release
Nintendo DS has enjoyed extremely strong sales in Japan and around the world, selling more than 14.4 million units worldwide. The Japanese sell-through of the existing Nintendo DS hardware exceeded 5 million within 13 months, which made Nintendo DS the fastest-selling video game system there.

Nintendo will announce more information about the availability of Nintendo DS Lite in Europe and other territories in the future..

 

[soundwave05]

Even if 14.4 million is shipped, that puts them well on pace to cross 20 million over this summer, and then 26-30 million shipped through Christmas/Japanese holiday rush.

You have to take into account that price drops ($99), the new redesign, new colors thereafter, Pokemon, and broadening software library will all cause sales spikes and overall brand momenteum into this Christmas.

 

[Fuzzy]

wow i get to bust someones ass!
Here goes

When NCL posts numbers in their fiscal statements it means shipped, not sell through.

 

[DefectiveReject]

Even if 14.4 million is shipped, .

which part of the sold figure does no one understand?

 

[Frankfurter]

wow i get to bust someones ass!
Here goes

I'm sure you enjoyed it

But seriously, I'm not 100% sure if "sold" in this case really means "sold" in the sense of "sold-through". On the other hand the number is absolutely reasonable as the 13M figure from the end of 2005 was nothing more than USA+Japan+Europe sales (half a months + countries like Canada, Australia [or is this counted by Europe?] etc.).

 

[soundwave05]

which part of the sold figure does no one understand?

I'm just saying even *if* that number is shipped, Nintendo does look to be on pace to have 30+ million DS' shipped/sold by about this time next year.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Isn't 20 million by summertime extremely optimistic?

 

[Frankfurter]

Isn't 20 million by summertime extremely optimistic?

I guess he means shipped.

 

[soundwave05]

Isn't 20 million by summertime extremely optimistic?

If they're at about 14-15 million shipped/sold right now ... you gotta figure the DS Lite gives at least a 1 million boost almost immediately in Japan .... 20 million through summer is definitely doable.

Without the DS Lite ... maybe not, but really I think this is going to cause a large spike .... a huge one in Japan especailly.

 

[thestopsign]

I expect 29,300,000 by the end of this year for the DS.

North America = 8,500,000
Europe = 7,500,000
Japan = 10,500,000
Other = 3,800,000

Software (Worldwide)

Tetris DS = 2,400,000
Metroid Prime Hunters = 1,200,000
Children of Mana = 900,000 (If released out of Japan)
Final Fantasy 3 = 1,600,000
New Super Mario Bros. = 3,500,000 (Depends on when released)
Pokemon P/D = 3,400,000 (November release in Japan, not expected in America until 2007)
Brain series = 2,600,000 (2 million each in Japan, rest in America and Europe around 600,000 is a good guess for each)
Nintendogs = 5,500,000
Animal Crossing Wild World = 3,200,000

I expect around 22,500,000 for the PSP.

America = 8,250,000
Europe = 6,250,000
Japan = 5,000,000
Other = 3,000,000

 

[Fuzzy]

I expect 29,300,000 by the end of this year.

North America = 8,500,000
Europe = 7,500,000
Japan = 10,500,000
Other = 3,800,000

:lol

 

[thestopsign]

:lol

Yeah, I guess that is sort of ridiculous. I'm going to lower it a bit. :lol

 

[soundwave05]

What does the GBA annually sell in North America?

You have to realize probably by fall a lot of shops in North America probably will start to cut down on GBA inventory.

DS basically is the new Game Boy, as soon as it gets to $99.

 

[MrSardonic]

Lifetime DS sales figures anyone? :lol

 

[thestopsign]

What does the GBA annually sell in North America?

You have to realize probably by fall a lot of shops in North America probably will start to cut down on GBA inventory.

DS basically is the new Game Boy, as soon as it gets to $99.

It was around 4,000,000 give or take for 2005. It sold a lot more in both 2003 and 2004.

 

[CoolTrick]

Japan = 10,500,000

This I could see happening as long as it includes holiday season 06 (not before it like Nintendo was hoping to get there by).

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Lifetime DS sales figures anyone? :lol

A BILLION

NONGAMERS FTW

 

[JJConrad]

:lol

His software and new hardware predictions are funnier.

 

[thestopsign]

I don't see what is so bad about them now. You do know that this LTD for everything I posted right?

 

[JJConrad]

I don't see what is so bad about them now. You do know that this LTD for everything I posted right?

Are you saying that those are predictions for the lifetime sales for the end of 2006? And not just their sales during only 2006? Correct?

 

[thestopsign]

Are you saying that those are predictions for the lifetime sales for the end of 2006? And not just their sales during only 2006? Correct?

Yes. 2004-2006.

 

[JJConrad]

Yes. 2004-2006.

Your hardware numbers aren't too bad. The old ones are probably better and your Europe PSP look a bit high.

Your worldwide software sales are really bad. Do you know what the brain training series and animal crossing are already at?

 

[thestopsign]

I agree with you on the Animal Crossing front, but I said that both Brain Trainings would hit 2 million in Japan, and sell 600,000 out of Japan. Read the note on the side.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I've been adding even more columns to my spreadsheet. I just added a "Year Over Year" set of columns for all the systems, manufacturers, and a few other things.

I know it's often bemoaned that these threads have become DS lovefests... but there's a reason it gets such big attention. Of course the fact that DS was going slowly at this time of year last year helps it in this regard, but for the last three weeks it's the only system to be doing better than it did last year. Just looking at this week of January 23, 2006 compared to the week of January 24, 2005,

GCN:   -63.0%
GBA:   -55.1%
GBASP: -48.6%
DS:   +145.4%
PS2:   -58.1%
PSP:   -58.8%
Xbox:  -72.6%
GBAall:-23.5%

Other than categories which include the DS (portables, Nintendo portables, Nintendo total), the only other category with improvement over last year was Microsoft as a whole: +350.5%.


Just also added in the "YTD Year Over Year" columns. DS started out negative this year due to the shortages, but with last week and this has turned positive. PSP started out positve this year with a big first week, but this week has become slightly negative.

GCN:   -35.2%
GBA:   -60.1%
GBASP: -63.8%
DS:    +26.5%
PS2:   -44.1%
PSP:   - 3.1%
Xbox:  -81.7%
GBAall:-41.6%

YTD YoY, Microsoft is up 642.0% compared to last year. Considering how slow DS was at this point last year, even if the DS Lite announcement and low shipment amounts cause sales to be 0, it would still be ahead of its 2005 YTD for 3 more weeks.

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/dspspabcdefg.sxc

 

[cvxfreak]

Good stuff Joshua!

 

[mj1108]

YTD YoY, Microsoft is up 642.0% compared to last year.

MOMENTUM!!!

 

[Yamauchi]

Microsoft: Solid if not spectacular.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

MOMENTUM!!!

Heh. If next year they manage to have similar growth, that'd put them at nearly PS2 levels. Well, I suppose it'd probably be past the 2007 PS2 levels.

 

[verplant]

YTD/LTD
NDS - 316,259/5,963,211
PSP - 259,371/2,942,333
NDS Lead - 56,888/3,020,878

To the people whose numbers don't match jj984jj's totals: you're all wrong.

All numbers: klick
(so you can check your numbers)

jj984jj's totals are right ;-)

 

[starship]

I expect 27,300,000 by the end of this year for the DS.

North America = 8,500,000
Europe = 6,500,000
Japan = 10,500,000
Other = 2,800,000

Software (Worldwide)

Tetris DS = 2,400,000
Metroid Prime Hunters = 1,200,000
Children of Mana = 900,000 (If released out of Japan)
Final Fantasy 3 = 1,600,000
New Super Mario Bros. = 3,500,000 (Depends on when released)
Pokemon P/D = 3,400,000 (November release in Japan, not expected in America until 2007)
Brain series = 2,600,000 (2 million each in Japan, rest in America and Europe around 600,000 is a good guess for each)
Nintendogs = 5,500,000
Animal Crossing Wild World = 3,200,000

I expect around 22,500,000 for the PSP.

America = 8,250,000
Europe = 6,250,000
Japan = 5,000,000
Other = 3,000,000

This is my prediction:

DS sales will exceed 17 million units during 2006 for a grand total of more than 30 million units by the end of the year.

Japan ~ 6 million units (total ~ 11.5 million)
NA ~ 6 million units (total ~ 10 million)
Europe ~ 4.5 million (total ~ 8 million)
Other ~ 0.5 million (total ~ 1 million)
---------------------------------------------------
total ~ 17 miilion during 2006 and an installed base of around 30.5 million worldwide by the end of the year.

PSP sales will be about 10 million during 2006 (installed base of around 20 million units by the end of the year)

Japan ~ 2 million units (total ~ 4.7 million units)
NA ~ 4 million units (total ~ 8 million units)
Europe ~ 3.3 million units (total ~ 5.8 million units)
Other ~ 0.7 million (total ~ 1.5 million units)

Some DS software sales prediction:

Nintendogs ~ 6 million units (bundles not counted)
New Super Mario Bros. ~ 5 million units (assuming worldwide release)
Animal Crossing ~ 4.5 million units
Mario Kart DS ~ 4.5 million units (bundles not counted)
Pokemon D/P ~ 4.5 million units combined in Japan
Brain Training ~ 4 million units
Super Mario 64 DS ~ 3.5 million units
Brain Training 2 ~ 3.5 million units
Gentle Brain Training ~ 3 million units
Tetris ~ 2.5 million units
Metroid Prime Hunters ~ 2 million units
Wario Ware Touch! ~ 2 million units
Mario & Luigi: PiT ~ 1.5 million units
Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon Blue ~ 1.5 million units
Super Princess Peach ~ 1 million units
Kirby Canvas Curse ~ 1 million units

 

[MrSardonic]

what about Brain Training 2 sales?

 

[bbyybb]

So when are the next sales numbers in?


Cheers.

 

[mutsu]

Tomorrow.

 

[Battersea Power Station]

Lifetime DS sales figures anyone? :lol

The figure might not be as crazy as some think. The next GameBoy will all but kill DS sales.

 

[clearacell]

The figure might not be as crazy as some think. The next GameBoy will all but kill DS sales.

I believe Nintendo is going to delay the release of the next game boy for as long as they can so they can maximize the sales of the DS. There's no way they're going to undercut this thing.

 

[argon]

The figure might not be as crazy as some think. The next GameBoy will all but kill DS sales.

Judging by the Japanese charts, DS is the next Gameboy.

 

[Deku]

That was obvious as early as Summer.

 

[Azelover]

I think they might be considering switching their handheld line over to DS and ditching the Gameboy line. Again Revolution is made after DS and both consoles will be side by side pretty strongly for, I think, longer than most Gameboys. I don't think they'd be putting the true next installment of Pokemon on DS if they weren't seriously considering it.

 

[Raw64life]

Gameboy Next
laucnhing Q4 2007
basically a protable Gamecube
launch at MSRP $150
New Super Mario Bros and New Smash Bros. at launch[/dreamworld]

 

[cvxfreak]

The DS lite was an opportunity for Nintendo to unify their two handheld lineups into one, but unfortunately they haven't done that. I was really, really, really hoping that when Nintendo finally revised the DS, they'd do it such that owning a GBA wouldn't be all that worth it next to a sexy, sleek new DS. I was hoping they'd throw in GBA link up support (for GCs as well as other GBAs), and GB/GBC support, so we'd really, truly have the ultimate Nintendo handheld.

But unfortunately, they didn't do that, which sucks, but it's really minor anyway. Long live the DS.

 

[Fuzzy]

The DS lite was an opportunity for Nintendo to unify their two handheld lineups into one, but unfortunately they haven't done that. I was really, really, really hoping that when Nintendo finally revised the DS, they'd do it such that owning a GBA wouldn't be all that worth it next to a sexy, sleek new DS. I was hoping they'd throw in GBA link up support (for GCs as well as other GBAs), and GB/GBC support, so we'd really, truly have the ultimate Nintendo handheld.

But unfortunately, they didn't do that, which sucks, but it's really minor anyway. Long live the DS.

It would've been great if they did that and called it Game Boy DS just so we could see what the fanboys who keep shouting "third pillar" would say. :lol

 

[Deku]

They're not going to unify the DS and GameBoy lines.

There's still something to be said about a small single screen portable like the Micro. The gameboy line will remain single screen and will emphasize portability over experimental features.

DS2 will more likely be the first 'portable' to try to the virtual console concept before it goes over to the GameBoy.

What Nintendo will do now is stagger both lines so that as the DS is aging the new GameBoy comes out and the DS is retired into the 'value' category, much in the same way the GameBoy line is now. The timetable for Game Boy Evolution is likely going to be late 2006 or a 2007 announcement followed by a release sometime in 2007 or 2008.