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[Haint]

Based on recent demos of Humanoid robots performing fine motor tasks worse than a retarded toddler in slow motion, I'm going to say they're probably at least a decade away from doing anything truly constructive (i.e. beyond clumsily walking and dancing), and then another decade+ before they achieve any kind of real sales volume. They will have to be able to perform 70-90% of minimum wage roles and household chores proficiently and efficiently, which they're light years away from today. They've been working on modern "AI" (computer controlled) self driving for nearly 20 years and it's still just a parlor trick in test cities and a rich people's toy that jumps curbs and tears up their rims. That is to say the time table is multiple decades, not a few years like Micron is suggesting. LLM's becoming complex and advanced enough to approach AGI is a much more imminent threat to memory supply than humanoid robots.

 

[Demigod Mac]

It's like they watched Wall-E and thought it was a great idea.

 

[Gamer79]

 

[pepeno]

The one who would make absolute killing right now if not for their stupidy would be Intel. They had their Xpoint3D tech for SSD that made them super fast at reduced sizes and those would absolutely fly the fuck out of the shelves for AI people. And the fact that they have fabs standing when whole world is chip tight.

 

[pepeno]

What these robots could do in their short life spam that humans can't do to justify their cost? The value system needs to be adjusted so our species don't look inferior to them.

Work 24/7/365 only for some pittance in energy. IT's awesome future where we probably won't need to work anymore. Just like 95% of us don't need to work on farms just to provide food to everyone and ourselves thanks to industrial revolution.

 

[yurinka]

Yep, I said it many times: there were shortages and price increases due to covid, then people mining bitcoins, electric cars, now AI datacenters and the next one soon will be humanoid robots doing their first steps to become mainstreamish in factories and houses.

What these robots could do in their short life spam that humans can't do to justify their cost? The value system needs to be adjusted so our species don't look inferior to them.

They'll be able work non-stop in companies doing physical boring work faster, better and cheaper than humans. They'll be able to almost completely address many areas like factories, shipments, farming, hotels, restaurants, bars, museums, cleaning, etc.

At home they'll be able to clean the house, cook, take care of elderly, perform first aid and doctor functions, security tasks, plumbing, electrician stuff, general AI assistant, to help kids with the homework, to go buy the food, to iron clothes, to DIY stuff, to take out the trash, etc...

So humans should be able to focus more in jobs/tasks/hobbies where they prefer to spend their time.

 

[Fess]

Most of the planet is now below replacement levels, and even Africa will join this trend at some point.

Some time in the future numbers will start to drop significantly (people will die). You can already see in some counties young people numbers are like 50% less than older generations.

During my time I've heard more talk about the Earth being over-populated than that we're somehow going extinct. So I remain sceptic.

If you google then examples of lower birth rates are often coming from heavily populated countries, like Japan.
Serious talk, if Japan would halve their population they would likely still have to stand up instead of sit while riding a bus and train in bigger cities and wait in lines all over the place.

So at what point is what you're saying going to be felt as a serious negative? 2077 like Cyberpunk?

Personally I think a bigger problem is having enough jobs for young people. AI and automation is going to mess that up badly. Far earlier than any sort of extinction scenario can be felt.

 

[Parazels]

Aren't consoles more important to human civilization than robots? Why prioritize the latter?

 

[Putonahappyface]

 

[PeteBull]

Cooking, housework, managing appointments...

Hmm, maybe androids aren't so useless after all.

Cant age and cant get fat/ugly, obiedient, never yaps or nags, will never cheat on u or even look at /think of another man, doesnt have any crazy simp ex-es who might or might not be carrier criminals ( ), doesnt have hoeish insta with semi-nekkid pics, actual virgin when u met her(factory sealed ), doesnt go to clubs/parties, doesnt drink, doesnt smoke, doesnt do drugs, always in the mood for sex, and not boring starfish but actual enthusiasm, doesnt mind introducing other chicks into our bedroom (!).
I tell u man, if i wasnt addicted to real natural kitty i would imediately became a robo-fan xD

 

[General Lee]

Once the robot cat girl waifus get off the production line, gamers will pay any price.

 

[Bojji]

During my time I've heard more talk about the Earth being over-populated than that we're somehow going extinct. So I remain sceptic.

If you google then examples of lower birth rates are often coming from heavily populated countries, like Japan.
Serious talk, if Japan would halve their population they would likely still have to stand up instead of sit while riding a bus and train in bigger cities and wait in lines all over the place.

So at what point is what you're saying going to be felt as a serious negative? 2077 like Cyberpunk?

Personally I think a bigger problem is having enough jobs for young people. AI and automation is going to mess that up badly. Far earlier than any sort of extinction scenario can be felt.

Young people not being born is fucking up the economy first and foremost, in many countries pensions systems for old people are based on taxes from young working people. That's the reason why many countries decided to import migrants in the first place.

Even India is now below replacement level, there are only some regions on the planet that are above it but numbers will fall in them as well, the whole human population will start to decline few decades from now. The most prosperous White and Asian countries are the most affected but rest of the world follow them.

Africa will still pump out more people for a few decades (but they also have high mortality rates) ^

Population explosion in XX centurty happened thanks to vaccines, modern medicine, pesticides and modern farming, but it was always going to collapse at some point. Now the question is, will humanity be able to stabilize the replacement level at some point or it will go down and down forever?

 

[Sohurmk833]

Population explosion in XX centurty happened thanks to vaccines, modern medicine, pesticides and modern farming, but it was always going to collapse at some point. Now the question is, will humanity be able to stabilize the replacement level at some point or it will go down and down forever?

It won´t go down forever, simply because at some point now still relatively small religous groups will take over.

Devout muslims, christians etc. still often have 4 or more children per woman. Look at the amish for example. They´re doubling in numbers every 20 years and will continue to do so if there isn´t some radical shift in their community. We´re going to enter the age of the ultra religious in the next 200 years.

 

[Bojji]

It won´t go down forever, simply because at some point now still relatively small religous groups will take over.

Devout muslims, christians etc. still often have 4 or more children per woman. Look at the amish for example. They´re doubling in numbers every 20 years and will continue to do so if there isn´t some radical shift in their community. We´re simply going to enter the age of the ultra religious in the next 200 years.

Yeah, this or Handmaid Tale future (so still religious). One of the reasons why birthrates are so low is feminism and women emancipation, at some point men will have subdue them again to save the human race (too bad for women of course).

 

[KloetenQuetsche]

Nothing is screwed. Programming games is possible and hopefully game devs take a step back in puking time into better graphics.

Focusing in new ideas and saving a good level of quality is more needed than stupid new graphic cards every year.
This industry is out of control for years now. The crisis forced them to sit down and overthink what's the essence of gaming.

Im sure, if the industry announces a full stop for 5 years, it would be the chance of the greatest gaming time since Xbox 360.

 

[Sohurmk833]

Yeah, this or Handmaid Tale future (so still religious). One of the reasons why birthrates are so low is feminism and women emancipation, at some point men will have subdue them again to save the human race (too bad for women of course).

That´s just how it is. If we look at the situation now modern civilization simply doesn´t work, like at all. We´re looking at a complete population collapse in less than 100 years.

The only solution is to go back to a model that is known to work. For Europe/the US/Japan etc. that would be a society like we had it in the first half of the 20th century. Birth rates weren´t sky high but enough for a small growth at least. No Feminism. No birth control. Classic gender roles.

 

[Aressa]

Gaming hardware sales
Couch co-op games sales

 

[Elog]

What kind of crazy thread is this? In what world would 10x higher demand for memory lead to higher prices long-term? Short-term yes but long term larger manufacturing volumes leads to reduced unit cost. That has been true for every product category that we humans have produced so far. Why would it be different this time?

 

[Walliwallipaloo]

This dude is just flailing his arms around to try to draw in as much insane, frothing investor hype as he can before the crash hits and completely bottoms out his massive gains.

"You think this is nuts? We're gonna make, like, SIXTEEN TIMES THE MONEY! Next week! Hell, hell, little Sally's dolls are going to have like 50 GB of RAM. RAM, EVERYWHERE! Believe it!"

the whole AI industry is literally just LLMs to write your class reports

Your friend gets it, because it's true. There is no actual "AI." There's no "intelligence." What they call "AI" doesn't actually know anything. It's just a glorified lookup system, algorithmic and ultimately incapable of creation on any level. At best, it's a means to sample pre-existing work, and selectively steal from it. And it does so poorly.

The data centers are for mass surveillance. The lookup system helps to parse the collated data.

 

[old-parts]

Yeah the whole thing is nonsense, the CEO of Micron is telling wall street what it wants to hear, because everyone knows once extra capacity comes online to 2028 the price will return to normal.

The memory market is notorious for boom/bust cycles and its just PR speak that there "will totally be memory demand for all these robots everywhere guys we promise".

If self driving cars are not still there and 100% safe then neither are robots which are even further away from being viable in the consumer market.

 

[Azelover]

I think I'm going retro..

 

[Fess]

Young people not being born is fucking up the economy first and foremost, in many countries pensions systems for old people are based on taxes from young working people. That's the reason why many countries decided to import migrants in the first place.

Even India is now below replacement level, there are only some regions on the planet that are above it but numbers will fall in them as well, the whole human population will start to decline few decades from now. The most prosperous White and Asian countries are the most affected but rest of the world follow them.

Africa will still pump out more people for a few decades (but they also have high mortality rates) ^

Population explosion in XX centurty happened thanks to vaccines, modern medicine, pesticides and modern farming, but it was always going to collapse at some point. Now the question is, will humanity be able to stabilize the replacement level at some point or it will go down and down forever?

Birth rates are low but I don't see why a shrinking world population is a catastrophe. If it goes back to 4 billion then so what? There are people starving, people are unemployed, people don't have homes, cities are crowded. Maybe some of that will be solved?
AI and robots taking the jobs we already have is a bigger problem. It'll be felt by our own generation, not just our grandkids kids in 2100.

 

[DreamcastSkies]

I came up with a solution in under 5 minutes months ago. No offense to those spending years thinking about this.

Universal Basic Income, or Guaranteed Living Wage.

BUT. Do not just hand that shit out. It needs to be tied to ATLEAST a certain number of volunteer hours. 18 hours or some such number. 3 days of work, 6 hour shifts, whatever, that's the details. Maybe 4 days. Can be non profit work, community services, your own business, child care, disability care, caring for an older person, or supplementary for an existing job, again, that's the details. There should also be a massive effort to encourage people to creatively form new non profits, businesses, or volunteer efforts to address areas of society that are falling short.

Yeah it might be real messy in the interim as the political will and details get worked out. But the alternative is mass unemployment, mass homelessness, and eventually massive increase in crime the likes we've never seen before. And that's basically whole sects of society collapsing inward on themselves. And the response to that is increased militarization, surveillance, and a profound loss of freedoms as those with money have very real reasons to be afraid.

We either want to make this work or not. And as (mostly) men we need to come together to make this happen on a local community level, or else no one will really feel safe. And I want my child to be safe, relatively speaking.

I think these are great ideas.

 

[mrBarrelNut]

Lenovo thinks RAM prices will stay up...

 

[DeepEnigma]

Lenovo thinks RAM prices will stay up...

It's all a scam.

 

[mckmas8808]

If these memory computers are so bullish on AI and there being no signs of a bubble, why don't they put their money where their mouth is and open up some more factories to make RAM.

One guy is literally doing just that lol.

Elon Musk's Terafab chip factory in Texas could cost up to $119 billion, filing shows

Musk, who's also CEO of Tesla
, is aiming for Terafab to be the "most epic chip-building effort ever — combining logic, memory and advanced packaging under one roof," according to a post on X last month from SpaceX, which now owns artificial intelligence company xAI. Musk officially launched the project in March.

In April, Intel
announced it will be joining the Terafab project to help "design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale." It's the first major outside commitment for the capital-intensive foundry side of Intel's business, which to date has only manufactured chips for its own products.

Elon Musk's Terafab chip factory in Texas could cost up to $119 billion, filing shows

Elon Musk's giant Terafab facility in Texas could cost up to $119 billion, with hopes of manufacturing chips for Tesla, SpaceX and xAI

www.cnbc.com

My hope is that companies like Sony would look towards doing the same thing in the future, because this cartel has to be broken up. The only way to do it is by creating your own version of vertical integration. There is no other choice.

 

[Hudo]

Lenovo thinks RAM prices will stay up...

I mean, I would've said the same. People should keep buying my shit.

 

[deriks]

Drained by human robots?

I'm down, let's get this shit on the road. I don't wanna wait til I'm 80 til I get one of these. Take my RAM, corpo overlord fucks, make it look like a young Jessica Alba.

...but eventually you wanna get back to gaming, and Skynet won't be as good anymore

 

[mitch1971]

I'll wait till it comes to Robotpass.

 

[mckmas8808]

Based on recent demos of Humanoid robots performing fine motor tasks worse than a retarded toddler in slow motion, I'm going to say they're probably at least a decade away from doing anything truly constructive (i.e. beyond clumsily walking and dancing), and then another decade+ before they achieve any kind of real sales volume. They will have to be able to perform 70-90% of minimum wage roles and household chores proficiently and efficiently, which they're light years away from today. They've been working on modern "AI" (computer controlled) self driving for nearly 20 years and it's still just a parlor trick in test cities and a rich people's toy that jumps curbs and tears up their rims. That is to say the time table is multiple decades, not a few years like Micron is suggesting. LLM's becoming complex and advanced enough to approach AGI is a much more imminent threat to memory supply than humanoid robots.

Unfortunately, your timeline is way off. To be fair to you, many people think we're 20 years away. I live in an area where there are currently Waymo and Tesla robo taxis driving themselves right now, and they don't jump curbs and tear up people's rims. I know some of this is scary, so your first response may be pure denial, but it's happening.

The 2030s will obviously be the decade of the humanoid robots being introduced into our daily lives. It's best to embrace it now mentally, because when it happens, I'm afraid an individual like yourself will start emotionally lashing out in frustration instead.

 

[Jesb]

Why was this allowed to happen. Why didn't the industry figure this out before ai took everything.

 

[IntentionalPun]

Unfortunately, your timeline is way off. To be fair to you, many people think we're 20 years away. I live in an area where there are currently Waymo and Tesla robo taxis driving themselves right now, and they don't jump curbs and tear up people's rims. I know some of this is scary, so your first response may be pure denial, but it's happening.

The 2030s will obviously be the decade of the humanoid robots being introduced into our daily lives. It's best to embrace it now mentally, because when it happens, I'm afraid an individual like yourself will start emotionally lashing out in frustration instead.

And Musk predicted they'd have a fleet of 1 million robotaxi's all over the country by 2020. It's 2026 and there are about 60 of them operating right now.

So I really hope you aren't using Elon Musk's timelines for when you think humanoid robots will be a part of daily life. Maybe you aren't and it's just your own timeline, but the biggest dreamer (aka stock price pumper) in this space has been repeatedly full of shit on his timelines.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Lenovo thinks RAM prices will stay up...

RAM RANCH!

 

[mckmas8808]

That´s just how it is. If we look at the situation now modern civilization simply doesn´t work, like at all. We´re looking at a complete population collapse in less than 100 years.

The only solution is to go back to a model that is known to work. For Europe/the US/Japan etc. that would be a society like we had it in the first half of the 20th century. Birth rates weren´t sky high but enough for a small growth at least. No Feminism. No birth control. Classic gender roles.

This sounds like a nightmare. Why would you want the whole globe to artificially kill the determination of 50% of the human population to do this to women in any country? Worse, all over the globe is downright insane and, of course, should be illegal everywhere.

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic, and my sarcasm detector is broken. If you were being for real, just know that this is psychotic thinking. I'd hope someone better than I could explain to you why it would be one of the dumbest things humanity could ever do to its own people.

And Musk predicted they'd have a fleet of 1 million robotaxi's all over the country by 2020. It's 2026 and there are about 60 of them operating right now.

So I really hope you aren't using Elon Musk's timelines for when you think humanoid robots will be a part of daily life. Maybe you aren't and it's just your own timeline, but the biggest dreamer (aka stock price pumper) in this space has been repeatedly full of shit on his timelines.

Yeah, everyone knows his timelines are always, to put it nicely, optimistic. If you're following the industry, it is very easy to see where humanoid robots are going and come up with a reasonable timeline when they will start to exist in factories and also retail stores.

Most people who are serious and have an understanding of the market know that the 2030s is the most realistic timeline, so we're talking about five to ten years from now.

And while Elon's timelines are stupid, it's not as if his companies haven't done things that many say were impossible. You would be a fool to completely dismiss the things that he says when it comes to new technology and the execution of said technology.

 

[Bojji]

This sounds like a nightmare. Why would you want the whole globe to artificially kill the determination of 50% of the human population to do this to women in any country? Worse, all over the globe is downright insane and, of course, should be illegal everywhere.

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic, and my sarcasm detector is broken. If you were being for real, just know that this is psychotic thinking. I'd hope someone better than I could explain to you why it would be one of the dumbest things humanity could ever do to its own people.

This will happen, you can mark my words. And of course what is legal/illegal now won't matter in 100 years, laws will be changed.

What is happening now can't be continued because human race will go extinct. Something like this is normal for hundreds of millions of women in the world right now (muslim world), too bad western women don't appreciate what they have because it won't last.

And of course this is not what I want, this is just logical conclusion and solution to the problem.

 

[mckmas8808]

This will happen, you can mark my words. And of course what is legal/illegal now won't matter in 100 years, laws will be changed.

What is happening now can't be continued because human race will go extinct. Something like this is normal for hundreds of millions of women in the world right now (muslim world), too bad western women don't appreciate what they have because it won't last.

And of course this is not what I want, this is just logical conclusion and solution to the problem.

I think you are underestimating basic human drive. Once people gain the freedom and ability to improve their lives and support their families, you cannot simply roll back the clock 150 years and strip those rights from half the population. Attempting to do so will inevitably trigger conflict. How does your prediction account for the reality that artificially restricting women's autonomy and bodily freedom will ultimately spark widespread resistance or civil war?

 

[Sohurmk833]

This sounds like a nightmare. Why would you want the whole globe to artificially kill the determination of 50% of the human population to do this to women in any country? Worse, all over the globe is downright insane and, of course, should be illegal everywhere.

I'm assuming you're being sarcastic, and my sarcasm detector is broken. If you were being for real, just know that this is psychotic thinking. I'd hope someone better than I could explain to you why it would be one of the dumbest things humanity could ever do to its own people.

There are exactly 2 options. Either we go back to a working early 20th century european style society or we go back to a medieval theocracy. If you want to know how that would be take a quick look at Afghanistan or similar countries.

 

[Haint]

Unfortunately, your timeline is way off. To be fair to you, many people think we're 20 years away. I live in an area where there are currently Waymo and Tesla robo taxis driving themselves right now, and they don't jump curbs and tear up people's rims. I know some of this is scary, so your first response may be pure denial, but it's happening.

The 2030s will obviously be the decade of the humanoid robots being introduced into our daily lives. It's best to embrace it now mentally, because when it happens, I'm afraid an individual like yourself will start emotionally lashing out in frustration instead.

I'm hugely pro AI and robots, but I'm just being real with the timelines, stuff usually takes a LOT longer than people hope or realize. Not even 2 months ago my buddy just had to replace the rim on his leased '26 Model Y cause the summon feature curbed the fuck out of it.

 

[Bojji]

I think you are underestimating basic human drive. Once people gain the freedom and ability to improve their lives and support their families, you cannot simply roll back the clock 150 years and strip those rights from half the population. Attempting to do so will inevitably trigger conflict. How does your prediction account for the reality that artificially restricting women's autonomy and bodily freedom will ultimately spark widespread resistance or civil war?

Women won't be able to resist this, rights and freedoms were given to them by men. The same way men can revert them back to XIX century ways.

Unless you mean that some men will defend women's rights and fight in civil war for them, that can happen but I doubt they will win this one (and I don't think they will have enough numbers).

 

[peish]

we had it good for the past 35 years.

tech got faster, cheaper, better and more personal

looks like the greedy coporate fucks saw an opening starting with covid shortages, and decided to buy up all hardware production, and will lease it out to us.

it is housing all over again.

i dont know how it will end, people are creatures of habit, they will continue to buy more expensive hardware.

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

Birth rates are low but I don't see why a shrinking world population is a catastrophe. If it goes back to 4 billion then so what? There are people starving, people are unemployed, people don't have homes, cities are crowded. Maybe some of that will be solved?
AI and robots taking the jobs we already have is a bigger problem. It'll be felt by our own generation, not just our grandkids kids in 2100.

Yes, let the populations of the world shrink. I'm not joking. Nobody needs infinite growth aside from shareholders, who can all go f themselves in my book. The whole planet would be better off with less humans creating less junk and waste nobody really knows what to do with besides letting sea turtles swallow it. I'm neither left wing nor particularly concerned about ecology, but it's pretty clear we'd get rid of a lot of global challenges if we just stopped reproducing like f* cockroaches. Would be nice to finally be able to feed everyone and give every person a chance at a life in dignity. If only we weren't obsessed with infinite growth...

 

[Sohurmk833]

I think you are underestimating basic human drive. Once people gain the freedom and ability to improve their lives and support their families, you cannot simply roll back the clock 150 years and strip those rights from half the population. Attempting to do so will inevitably trigger conflict. How does your prediction account for the reality that artificially restricting women's autonomy and bodily freedom will ultimately spark widespread resistance or civil war?

The people that care about any of this are not having children. That´s the whole point of the debate.

 

[wolffy66]

Oh lord, we hadn't even considered robots yet. Gaming consoles are toast

 

[mopspear]

WW3 will be fought with gamers vs clankers.

"World War 3 or The Third World War was was a global conflict between two coalitions: the Gamers and the Clankers. Starting with the Great Chud Revolt of 2027..."

 

[mckmas8808]

There are exactly 2 options. Either we go back to a working early 20th century european style society or we go back to a medieval theocracy. If you want to know how that would be take a quick look at Afghanistan or similar countries.

Why are you restricting us to your two binary options? It seems as if you may lack the capacity to imagine there to be other scenarios through which we can do this going forward....

 

[Sohurmk833]

Why are you restricting us to your two binary options? It seems as if you may lack the capacity to imagine there to be other scenarios through which we can do this going forward....

If "normal" or just mildly religious people don´t start having children again they will be outnumbered by the ultra religious in the not to distant future. Simple mathematics.

 

[mckmas8808]

Women won't be able to resist this, rights and freedoms were given to them by men. The same way men can revert them back to XIX century ways.

Unless you mean that some men will defend women's rights and fight in civil war for them, that can happen but I doubt they will win this one (and I don't think they will have enough numbers).

I can assure you there would be more men with money and power that would destroy any group of men who wanted to revert the human race to the 1920s. That I can basically guarantee and would bet my house on.

But I also think you're ignoring the fact that AI and humanoid robots would take the place of humans for productivity reasons. It's not like we necessarily need over 10 billion people on planet Earth.

And I'm sure you would agree that 8 billion people on earth is enough for a good genetic diverse pool of people for our human survival. Correct?

 

[Bojji]

I can assure you there would be more men with money and power that would destroy any group of men who wanted to revert the human race to the 1920s. That I can basically guarantee and would bet my house on.

But I also think you're ignoring the fact that AI and humanoid robots would take the place of humans for productivity reasons. It's not like we necessarily need over 10 billion people on planet Earth.

And I'm sure you would agree that 8 billion people on earth is enough for a good genetic diverse pool of people for our human survival. Correct?

You think billionaires really care about women rights (from top 100 list, 86.6% of them are men)? They only care about hoarding money and assets, they will support the side that will allow them to get even more rich.

First world is getting extinct and third world will replace us, Sohurmk833 is absolutely right about this. Unless we wake up and force people to have more children.

 

[daffyduck]

Destroy the robots to save humanity gaming.

 

[mckmas8808]

You think billionaires really care about women rights (from top 100 list, 86.6% of them are men)? They only care about hoarding money and assets, they will support the side that will allow them to get even more rich.

First world is getting extinct and third world will replace us, Sohurmk833 is absolutely right about this. Unless we wake up and force people to have more children.

Why would you force people to have more children in an economic environment that doesn't support living a life with more people in it?

Prices are going up for everything, and life is less affordable now than it has ever been. Why would you even want to force more people to have children?