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New Hardware Sales Stats Released (Wedbush Morgan)

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1276&Itemid=2

WMS has published a report on hardware sales in the U.S. and Europe, including current generation and next generation predictions. The analyst has also gauged the effect of PS2's likely price cut. Not to be missed.

The U.S. and European installed base for current generation systems shows PS2 at 51 million units, followed by Xbox at 18 million and GameCube at 13.2 million.

According to the new report from WMS. Sony will "likely" cut the price of PS2 from $149 to $99 at or around the same time as the introduction of Xbox 360 in late November. It's thought unlikely that Microsoft will follow suit. Talk of the company's "support" for current generation systems won't stretch to it taking yet more losses on its expensive-to-produce debut machine. Sony has been far more efficient in its manufacturing costs.

WMS forecast for (European and U.S combined) hardware sell-through is 12.2 million for PS2, 5.1 million for Xbox and 2.7 million for GameCube. It says Xbox 360 will sell 2.5 million.

The company says total hardware sales for this year will hit 40 million up from 35 million last year.

Xbox 360 Predictions

It's also predicting an Xbox 360 tie-ratio of 2 games at purchase followed by three games after two months, and beyond. The same ratio is predicted for Revolution and PlayStation 3's launch.

WMS's report appears to be confident that Xbox 360 will manage 1.5 million units in the U.S. and 1 million units in Europe this year. The forecast presumes that the company began manufacturing the Xbox 360 in mid-August, and that initial production was 100,000 units per week, ramping to 150,000 or more by year-end. WMS says the company will manufacture an average of 125,000 – 135,000 over the 20-week period following the start-up. Xbox software sales will contribute $380 million in 2005.
 
1.5 million 360 systems for North America in 2005 would be a good number. Hope it happens. It is my prediction after all. I think Wedbush Morgan stole it from me. ;)
 
Amir0x said:
Sony really needs to hurry up and cut the damn price already!

They should do 129+GT4 pack in for the holiday. But the PS2 is still selling well and they like getting everything out of each price drop. It did over 200k in August.
 
Deg said:

No, really, I'm curious. Since cutting the price is only a good thing at this point for all parties involved, whether consumer or company, what is the "no" for?

Solidsnakex said:
They should do 129+GT4 pack in for the holiday. But the PS2 is still selling well and they like getting everything out of each price drop. It did over 200k in August.

I know, I follow numbers decently. I just think they need to drop the price, 'cause 149.99 is not where PS2 should be at this point. 129.99 price point is perfect. If they put GT4 in it that'd be a really sweet dig, but 129.99 should do the sufficient work.
 
51 Million PS2 units eh? Is that number a little on the lower side as I recall Sony was aiming for the PS2 to outsell PS1 over it's lifetime.
 
jenov4 said:
51 Million PS2 units eh? Is that number a little on the lower side as I recall Sony was aiming for the PS2 to outsell PS1 over it's lifetime.

PS2 is at 91 million or so worldwide. It has not yet surpassed PS1, but it is guaranteed to unless the world ends and people stop buying PS2s tommorrow.
 
Amir0x said:
No, really, I'm curious. Since cutting the price is only a good thing at this point for all parties involved, whether consumer or company, what is the "no" for?

If Sony can squeeze out an extra $20 from millions of folks until they drop the price, that's what they'll do. That is, it's still selling incredibly well in both the US & Europe, so they haven't dropped the price.

Sony has been remarkably consistent in this area. They DO NOT drop the price until sales slow down enough at a given price point. That being said, they have obviously milked this generation for a longer time at higher price points than any system in history, so I do expect a price drop sometime soon.
 
Ah yes new stats soon!

cant wait..

I think this is the actual month that DS may surpass PSP, in my gamestop store.. it literally quadruples the PSP in sales this past month.. (I think we sold like 10 psps this month while we sold like 40 Used/new DS's) We also have now just 1 DS while in the beginning of last month we had about 10, and we had 0 Used PSP's last month now we have 5.

But.. who knows that could just be my store :P
 
I have a massively hard time believing North America and Europe will see a combined 2.5 million units by the end of December. Especially given the (granted, typical) production slowdowns we've heard about.
 
Juice said:
I have a massively hard time believing North America and Europe will see a combined 2.5 million units by the end of December. Especially given the (granted, typical) production slowdowns we've heard about.

You aren't thinking financial speak. End of the year financially March 31st.
 
BigGreenMat said:
You aren't thinking financial speak. End of the year financially March 31st.

Neither are you.

He's unmistakably speaking about calendar 2005. Microsoft's year end is June 30th, not March 31st.
 
Interesting NA/EU stats...

PS2 shipped: 69.750.000
PS2 sold: 51.000.000

Xbox shipped: 20.400.000
Xbox sold: 18.000.000

GC shipped: 14.700.000
GC sold: 13.200.000
 
jarrod said:
Interesting NA/EU stats...

PS2 shipped: 69.750.000
PS2 sold: 51.000.000

!?!?

I think it's more or less impossible that there are nearly 19 MILLION PS2's in European and NA stores ^^ I have no idea how many stores that sell PS2's there are in NA and Europe combined, but if this number would be correct every one of them would probably have a few hundred PS2's...!?
 
jarrod said:
Interesting NA/EU stats...

PS2 shipped: 69.750.000
PS2 sold: 51.000.000

Xbox shipped: 20.400.000
Xbox sold: 18.000.000

GC shipped: 14.700.000
GC sold: 13.200.000
Yup. More evidence of how whacked NPD/WM figures are since there isn't even the capacity for 19M units sitting anywhere in the distro chain. From manufacturing plant to retail shelf. I've questioned the accuracy before, and I'll question it again. And if Sony's lying, then they are lying like Enron, b/c @ $150 a pop, they are cooking the books by almost $3B. PEACE.

EDIT: And that shipped figure is 3 months old now.
 
Dr_Cogent said:
How in the hell can they know the install base when consoles may be purchased just to replace failed ones?
They're just talking about sold units. It's impossible to measure active userbases. Replacements make up an inconsequential number of any userbase anyway, unless you're talking about a CE device with unprecedented failure rates. And if that was the case, you'd be reading about it in more places than gaming forums. PEACE.
 
Pimpwerx said:
They're just talking about sold units. It's impossible to measure active userbases. Replacements make up an inconsequential number of any userbase anyway, unless you're talking about a CE device with unprecedented failure rates. And if that was the case, you'd be reading about it in more places than gaming forums. PEACE.

Hmmm, I wonder about your inconsequential number statement. I seem to know so many people that have had to replace their PS2s. Maybe it's just coincidence.

Hell, I went through 3 Xboxs myself. Thank goodness I had the damn extended warranty.
 
Pimpwerx said:
Yup. More evidence of how whacked NPD/WM figures are since there isn't even the capacity for 19M units sitting anywhere in the distro chain. From manufacturing plant to retail shelf. I've questioned the accuracy before, and I'll question it again. And if Sony's lying, then they are lying like Enron, b/c @ $150 a pop, they are cooking the books by almost $3B. PEACE.

EDIT: And that shipped figure is 3 months old now.
In terms of Sony's books, they couldn't give a shit about the difference between shipped and sold. Sony sells them to retailers, so the shipped figure is money in the bank. Its the retailers' problem to move the merchandise, and there's plenty of software coming down the pipe to move those units, so the retailers probably aren't sweating it either.
 
jarrod said:
Interesting NA/EU stats...

PS2 shipped: 69.750.000
PS2 sold: 51.000.000

Xbox shipped: 20.400.000
Xbox sold: 18.000.000

GC shipped: 14.700.000
GC sold: 13.200.000

Clearly, Mr. Pachter sucks at math :D


NPD has PS2 at almost 30M units
Screen Digest has PS2 at 25.6M units as of May 2005 (probably at least another 2 Mil by now ) for Western Europe
Canada is ~10% of the US
----------------------------------------------
~ 60M units accounted for in straight sales

Don't know about how SCEA categories it's territories (besides Canada & US)

And what about the other SCEE regions??

SCEE said:
SCEE Licensed Territories
104 PAL Territories
Afghanistan * Liechtenstein
Albania Lithuania
Algeria Luxembourg
Andorra Macedonia
Armenia Madagascar
Australia Malta & Gozo
Austria Mauritius
Azerbaijan * Moldova
Bahrain Monaco
Bangladesh * Morocco
Belorussia Mozambique
Belgium Netherlands
Bosnia Herzegovina New Zealand
Botswana Nigeria
Bulgaria Norway
Burkina Faso * Oman
Cameroon Pakistan
Croatia Papua New Guinea
Cyprus Poland
Czech Republic Portugal
Denmark Qatar
Djibouti Romania
Egypt Russian Federation
Eritreia * San Marino
Estonia Saudi Arabia
Ethiopia Senegal
Fiji Serbia and Montenegro
Finland Slovakia
France Slovenia
Georgia Somalia
Germany South Africa
Ghana Namibia
Gibraltar Spain
Greece Sudan
Greenland Sweden
Hungary Swaziland
Iceland Switzerland
India Syria
Ireland Tanzania
Iran Tunisia
Iraq Turkey
Israel Turkmenistan
Italy Uganda
Ivory Coast * Ukraine
Jordan United Arab Emirates
Kazakhstan United Kingdom
Kenya Uzbekistan
Kosovo Vatican
Kuwait Yemen
Latvia Zaire
Lebanon Zambia
Libya* Zimbabwe

* = PlayStation and PS one only
 
sonycowboy said:
Clearly, Mr. Pachter sucks at math :D

Get him this then:

ISUCMA2001.jpg
 
sonycowboy said:
Interesting NA/EU stats...

PS2 shipped: 69.750.000
PS2 sold: 51.000.000

Xbox shipped: 20.400.000
Xbox sold: 18.000.000

GC shipped: 14.700.000
GC sold: 13.200.000


Clearly, Mr. Pachter sucks at math :D
The 18 million discrepancy between shipped and sold PS2s is based on the number of defective units returned to Sony.










maybe
 
Rhindle said:
The 18 million discrepancy between shipped and sold PS2s is based on the number of defective units returned to Sony.










maybe
Thanks for that. Actually, they're all at my house. I just really, really, really need for Sony to be #1.
 
Sonycowboy, is the PS2 even sold officially in most of those countries you listed (Im talking Africa).

I think that although SCEE might control those regions, they havent actually launched there.

Im looking at South America from person experience. While you can find PS2 consoles and games for sale everywhere, I dont think the console was ever launched officially in any country except maybe Chile. In other words, all the units are imported.

Im guessing it is the same for Africa.

I just cant see Bostwana getting more support then Brasil.
 
A couple of things:

1. There is no room anywhere in the distribution line for 19M units. 19M units is slightly less than what they sell in a peak year. Let it sink in...a YEAR. To put it in perspective, the US launch saw only 500k units. YET, a large number of stores had over 100 units for sale. Double that to include Europe, and you've got 1M. Now you're talking about multiplying that number times 19. Basically, you're looking to shoehorn 1000 units into each store...EACH STORE. A little hard to swallow, no?

2. Sony sees shipped as sold, but since it's apparent that they could never hope to hide a year's supply in all the warehouses in EU and US combined, or the retail shelves, then they would be lying by some margin. If you suppose they sell the systems to retailers for even the conservative estimate of $100 (obviously more, but let's use conservative numbers), then for every million units, they are cooking the books (faking financial reports) by $100M. Multiply that by 19, and that's $1.9B. Unpossible.

3. As SC pointed out, the previous figures given don't match up with these. Not to mention, the previous figures still seem hokey as hell. I've questioned the accuracy of Famitsu, Media Create, NPD and other sales trackers for years. I still can't get a straight answer. AFAIK, the percent error has never been given. All I've ever heard was that NPD tracks 80% of the market, though that might have increased since I think they merged with other trackers over the years. I'd like some reliable info on that, b/c the same voodoo math applies to the Japanese trackers as well.

4. Any consumer electronics product with a high failure rate gets bad press. Consumer reports catches some of it, but in general, you'd hear about it from major news sources if it was real. The PS brand sells more units than the vast majority of CE products around, and it's a single product line. You think if the failure rate was anything over 5% (you're talking about 5M units just about for each of those machines) that you wouldn't have heard about it? Where do you hear about broken systems? Friends...forums...uh....yah. I know a shitload of people with broken NES's. I know a ton with broken Gennys and 2600's. I'm the only one I know IRL that's broken a PS1. I know a lot of people online with a broken one. I only know one other person IRL with a PS2 that's giving problems. I know a lot of people online with broken ones. What's it mean? Not much, it's anecdotal and largely influenced by the fact that more people speak up when something goes wrong than when something goes right. You don't see a new thread each week proclaiming, "Oh shit! My PS2 is still working!" do you? But you'll see one where someone says theirs broke, and you'll see someone like me chime in with my horror story as well. By and large, the failure rate of most consoles have been blown way out of proportion. You could file a class-action suit if you could prove a significant number of a product failed to meet the MTBF listed in the specs. Even with the warranty, if a product can't perform as advertised, it's usually grounds for a cheap suit. But the lack of said lawsuits in this litigious age suggests to me that evidence is either not readily available, or just plain nonexistent.

Rant off. PEACE.
 
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