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[Matlock]

(It's the actual title of the article, sue me)

http://www.firingsquad.com/features/nintendo_revolution/

The whole article comes to a point at this statement:

Nintendo is poised for a coup. As someone who not so long ago was dismissive of what the company can accomplish, I today firmly believe that they’re capable of taking the #1 position from Sony. Slumping game sales, unimaginative games, expensive consoles and expensive games, consoles that will have features (Blu-Ray, HD-DVD) that we’re not sure we’ll need. In comes Nintendo, with the promise and the tools to let developers create cool games again. It’s guaranteed that we’ll see Castlevania, Zelda, Metroid, and Mario on the Revolution – but this time there’s the potential for so much more.

...which contradicts the first part where he says:

Disclaimer: I am not a Nintendo fan. Of all Nintendo systems, I only owned the NES, GBA, and briefly, the SNES. The N64 was a subject of my humor and the GameCube earned immediate contempt for its storage format and the vastly inadequate memory cards it came with (it took 3 or 4 to save a season of Madden with rosters on release). Regular readers of the site will have no doubt read many of my scathing comments about the Revolution controller design.

It's an interesting read, and makes a lot of good points--although the jump between concept and execution are still something I'm cynical of.

 

[mutsu]

Nintendo FTW

 

[Speevy]

Nintendo is always winning, even when they're losing.

 

[Syb]

Did it really take 3-4 MC59's to save a Madden season back in '02?

 

[Link]

People are way too optimistic about Nintendo's chances with the Revolution. Yeah, it'll probably do better than the GC, but to beat out the PS3? That's a stretch.

It's conceivable (but not probable) that it could give the PS3 a run for its money in Japan, but I don't see the west embracing it enough to make it the market leader.

 

[pgtl_10]

Guess what he said before:

The Xbox absolutely crushed all its console competition. This surprising success for Microsoft's console bodes well for Xbox 2, particularly since the Xbox isn't riding on the strength of any single title alone. Jakub Wojnarowicz, Editor-in-Chief @ FiringSquad

Am I the only one thinking bandwagon?

 

[Wollan]

The Xbox absolutely crushed all its console competition. This surprising success for Microsoft's console bodes well for Xbox 2, particularly since the Xbox isn't riding on the strength of any single title alone.

Isn't reality exactly the opposite?

 

[Shapingo]

maybe he was being sarcastic. I hope

 

[SolidSnakex]

Isn't reality exactly the opposite?

How in the world does someone come to that conclusion?

 

[Borys]

The Xbox absolutely crushed all its console competition. This surprising success for Microsoft's console bodes well for Xbox 2, particularly since the Xbox isn't riding on the strength of any single title alone.

What rubbish.

 

[Wollan]

Well, not exactly the opposite(there are many great exclusives) but saying Xbox destroying the competition and not relying on one game(Halo anyone?) is abit out there imho.

 

[Servizio]

The Xbox was competing directly with the Phantom.

Do you see the Phantom?

 

[Ristamar]

Am I the only one thinking bandwagon?

Jakub is an XBox fanboy through and through. After reading his articles for the past 3 years, I have no doubts about that.

 

[MrSardonic]

Exaggerated generalizations

 

[BlueLegs]

It’s guaranteed that we’ll see Castlevania, Zelda, Metroid, and Mario on the Revolution – but this time there’s the potential for so much more.

What?!?! Did this guy just make a mistake and assume this was a Nintendo IP??

 

[Mook1e]

Has anyone ever looked into the top selling games and how much (estimated) they cost to produce?

It's good to have a system that's easy to develop for, but is it as big an indicator of success in consoles as it is with handhelds?

I would wager that (besides brain training) the DS games that sell the most cost the most to develop even though they are cheap compared to PSP games.

It seems that Revolution supporters think that the DS' success will translate into Rev success due to the new input methods and the lower production and system costs.

I don't know, maybe.

 

[Taker666]

Has anyone ever looked into the top selling games and how much (estimated) they cost to produce?

It's good to have a system that's easy to develop for, but is it as big an indicator of success in consoles as it is with handhelds?

I would wager that (besides brain training) the DS games that sell the most cost the most to develop even though they are cheap compared to PSP games.

It seems that Revolution supporters think that the DS' success will translate into Rev success due to the new input methods and the lower production and system costs.

I don't know, maybe.

Tamagotchi, Warioware, Mario 64 DS, Nintendogs (maybe).

 

[bastard666]

:lol

 

[I <3 Katamari]

People are way too optimistic about Nintendo's chances with the Revolution. Yeah, it'll probably do better than the GC, but to beat out the PS3? That's a stretch.

It's conceivable (but not probable) that it could give the PS3 a run for its money in Japan, but I don't see the west embracing it enough to make it the market leader.

It's not a stretch at all.

DS is the market leader in the US, but having a very tight battle with PSP (although once Pokemon comes out, the battle might kinda be over). I think it'll mirror DS/PSP quite a bit, although it will be closer in Japan.

 

[SantaC]

Jakub is an XBox fanboy through and through. After reading his articles for the past 3 years, I have no doubts about that.

firingsquad are PC fanboys first and foreforst. Nintendo has never had any spotlight at their site, so it must be pretty good for them to write about them.

Good article, I agree.

 

[DECK'ARD]

It's going to be interesting no doubt. All hinges on the games though of course.

I think Revolution is bound to do better than GC, just because it's doing it's own thing rather than being seen as just a watered-down version of it's rivals. Plus it has the DS' success to ride on. If it has a Mario64 or Goldeneye style killer-app as well, something that really holds up as a game, then who knows what it could do.

 

[Suburban Cowboy]

People are way too optimistic about Nintendo's chances with the Revolution. Yeah, it'll probably do better than the GC, but to beat out the PS3? That's a stretch.

It's conceivable (but not probable) that it could give the PS3 a run for its money in Japan, but I don't see the west embracing it enough to make it the market leader.

Completely possible if u ask me. Sony can still fuck up. If they price PS3 too high or its too difficult to develope for it could really take a hit in marketshare. I hate to do it, but i have to bring up DS. I, along with probably most of you, was convinced it was gonna fail. I dare anyone to count the ammount of times the DS was compared to the Virtual Boy on this board.

 

[DECK'ARD]

I don't think Sony will fuck up, there's just too much riding on it for them to mess up the pricing. Plus it sounds easier to developer for than PS2. The only thing that might hurt them is the general expense of next-gen development in general.

The one I'd be more concerned for is Microsoft. There was sort of a blind-assumption that they'd grow their marketshare considerably, but 360 is preaching to the converted so far. And not even all of them with the launch problems. I think they stand a real chance of being squeezed with Sony stealing a chunk of their existing userbase and Nintendo mopping up any new gamers.

 

[the androgyne]

All i know is that i was a HUGE nintendo fan during the age of SNES and the moment i saw the N64 controller in pictures, i thought WHAT THE HELL have they done - i like digital games! I dont know how that will work! 3 prongs? It's huge?!

Seeing Mario 64 in screens was 'wow' but i still had no grasp of the concept.. and while good, the graphics weren't a touch on what they'd demoed for 'Project Reality' earlier (this wasn't such a big deal of course).

And then one day I heard they had demo's going around on big trucks. Made my way down to Toyworld and soon after playing... promised myself i'd never doubt them again.

They aren't immortal and they do stuff up things, but i have that feeling like it's going to happen all over again - and i really hope so Nintendo to me is like the Willy Wonka of the gaming industry - magical.

 

[Rob]

It all depends on just how "elite" the PS3 turn out to be. If Sony prices it out of the reach of the mainstream, Nintendo could very well steal a lot of potential buyers. Also, by Nintendo deciding not to focus on hdtv support, they don't have to worry about alienating the vast majority of tv owners.

The PS3 could turn out to be the "Aibo" of gaming. Everyone will desire it but very few will actually have one. Plus I don't see Sony coming down in price on the PS3 for a looooooong time.

 

[Xrenity]

I don't think Sony will fuck up, there's just too much riding on it for them to mess up the pricing. Plus it sounds easier to developer for than PS2. The only thing that might hurt them is the general expense of next-gen development in general.

The one I'd be more concerned for is Microsoft. There was sort of a blind-assumption that they'd grow their marketshare considerably, but 360 is preaching to the converted so far. And not even all of them with the launch problems. I think they stand a real chance of being squeezed with Sony stealing a chunk of their existing userbase and Nintendo mopping up any new gamers.

PS3 = N64
Rev = PS1
And when we do some gen-blending
Xbox = Dreamcast

PS3 is thé Major Game console developer which Nintendo was with N64.
Revolution is the 'new thing' trying to take over.

Xbox launched early, might be a wrong decision in the long run.

 

[Xellotah]

At this moment in time, saying that the Revolution can win is just a pipe dream. Sony is too strong and have too much going in their favour for them at this moment.

Heck if it wasn't for the semi-disastrous "worldwide" lauch of X360 and the too early abortion of XB1, I would have said that Microsoft had more momentum that Nintendo, a few months back.

This gen is for Sony to lose, so far I have not seen them make obvious moves that would suggest they will. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Nintendo are as helpless as some other posters would make out, a focused Nintendo will make the rev. more successful than the GC, but winning the console war is another matter.

 

[Beowvlf]

I hate to do it, but i have to bring up DS. I, along with probably most of you, was convinced it was gonna fail. I dare anyone to count the ammount of times the DS was compared to the Virtual Boy on this board.

This absurd 'fact' needs to stop being brought up in discussions, especially since many weren't even here at GAF when these ridiculous predictions took place. The only thing this asanine point proves is that the majority of GAF (if they did indeed believe the DS would outright fail) are shit awful analysts.

Who the fuck would think the DS would fail? Shit boggles my mind. Nintendo owned an essentially uncontested, 100% marketshare in the handheld market for almost 20 years, and they didn't do it by fluke.

I repeat: this is not a legitimate example to use in a discussion. Stop doing it.

 

[Version 3.0]

Who the fuck would think the DS would fail? Shit boggles my mind. Nintendo owned an essentially uncontested, 100% marketshare in the handheld market for almost 20 years, and they didn't do it by fluke.

I repeat: this is not a legitimate example to use in a discussion. Stop doing it.

It wasn't only that people thought the DS would fail, although some certainly did--arguably even Nintendo, since they hedged their bets by not using the Game Boy name.

It was more that people thought the PSP would be a much larger success than the DS. Simply put, people thought Sony would get as much marketshare in the portable market as they have in the home console market.

 

[marc^o^]

At this moment in time, saying that the Revolution can win is just a pipe dream. [...] I don't think Nintendo are as helpless as some other posters would make out, a focused Nintendo will make the rev. more successful than the GC, but winning the console war is another matter.

I hate to do it, but i have to bring up DS. I, along with probably most of you, was convinced it was gonna fail. I dare anyone to count the ammount of times the DS was compared to the Virtual Boy on this board.

I repeat: this is not a legitimate example to use in a discussion. Stop doing it.

If Nintendo's stock is on the rise, it is because people start to realize their direction is good. You have to give credits to the DS for this perception change. If Nintendo's image was not hampered by 7 years of bad business decisions/lack of vision, there'd be no discussion at all we could call them a strong contender for next gen's top spot position.

 

[ziran]

i think it's interesting nintendo has adopted the key factors for ps1's success to ds and revolution. imo, the ps1 was a huge success because it provided something different and was a cost effective platform for developers which allowed them to experiment and take risks delivering something new.

i believe revolution has a chance to do well, how well i'm not sure, it depends on how good the games are.

 

[SomeDude]

Yeah people had high hopes for the GameCube also.

 

[marc^o^]

Yeah people had high hopes for the GameCube also.

It's time someone made a chart with everything that differentiates Revolution from GameCube. The outcome would obviously be the Revolution has much more potential than the GC.

 

[GitarooMan]

It's time someone made a chart with everything that differentiates Revolution from GameCube. The outcome would obviously be the Revolution has much more potential than the GC.

While you're at it, you can make a chart of everything different from N64 to GC, to see the potential GC had. I kid, I kid. Seriously, if past gens have taught anything, it's that they taught nothing. It's extremely hard to predict what's going to happen w/o knowledge of 99% of the content we're going to eventually see.

 

[soundwave05]

Revolution is so different from the GameCube though ... who knows really.

I'm betting you're going to see a *ton* of new franchises from Nintendo now that Nintendogs and Brain Training have sold so incredibly well. You never know what the next big thing is.

GameCube was just such a muddled philosophy all together .... they wanted older players so they got Resident Evil, but they made the machine a purple lunchbox and cartoonized Zelda ... they wanted to exploit the GBA userbase, but made it awkward and a rip-off but opted to emphasize Pac-Man (wtf?) instead of making a GC-GBA main Pokemon RPG, etc. etc. etc.

Say what you want about Revolution, but at least Nintendo has chosen a clear philosophy this time around ... I think they have a real focus with it.

Now some people may be pissed that its not the toe-to-toe PS3 clone that many were perhaps expecting, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if Revolution outsells GameCube and really does become popular with demographics that previously had shunned gaming.

I see Revolution more as the NES for the 21st century ... more in the sense that it will introduce a lot of people to gaming and new families into gaming that maybe previously didn't play before.

 

[Gio_CoD]

Nintendo's got a better chance of reclaiming the top spot with the Revo than they did with the Cube. If anything, just for the sake of money. I consider myself pretty "hardcore" when it comes to gaming, but even I can't bring myself to spend 400 bucks on the 360 with the titles I've seen. Nothing out or coming out screams must have to me, and even the promise of heavy hitters like Halo 3 doesn't really do much. Part of the reason is because of the expense, and part of the reason is that MS's strategy is to just pump up the graphics and sound of last gen titles. What's the difference between Call of Duty 2 and Call of Duty other than some bumpmapping and lighting tricks? The gameplay is exactly the same. It's going to be the same case with Halo 3 and Halo 2. The game will look and sound awesome, and it will play exactly like Halo 2 did. It's a little hard for me to get excited about that.

But with the Revolution I'm excited because I have no idea what to expect. That's not necessarily good. If it ends up being a 200 dollar box to play cooking simulators and shit, then yeah, I can lose that excitement really quickly. On the other hand, if Nintendo plays it's cards right and truly innovates and begins to spawn new genres, they're gonna get my money.

 

[Lord Error]

It's not a stretch at all.

DS is the market leader in the US, but having a very tight battle with PSP (although once Pokemon comes out, the battle might kinda be over). I think it'll mirror DS/PSP quite a bit, although it will be closer in Japan.

If the console sales mirrored handheld sales, GameCube would today own 90-95% of the console market. That train of thought simply doesn't have roots in reality.

 

[Gio_CoD]

If the console sales mirrored handheld sales, GameCube would today own 90-95% of the console market. That train of thought simply doesn't have roots in reality.

Yeah, but if console sales mirrored handheld sales the Gamecube would never have had any competition either. The DS marks the first system to come out that faces an organized, popular, and well funded competitor. I think the analogy works better for this race.

 

[soundwave05]

Nintendo won't be no.1 ever again IMO.

Honestly I don't think they'll sell more than MS even, but I do think they will increase their userbase from the GameCube, up to more in the 30 million range, and that should make Mr. Iwata very happy.

Nintendo being no.1 would be like Michael Jackson now releasing an album that sells more than "Thriller" ... not bloody likely.

 

[marc^o^]

If the console sales mirrored handheld sales, GameCube would today own 90-95% of the console market. That train of thought simply doesn't have roots in reality.

There could be some bit of correlation next gen though, because DS is creating franchises that people may want to retrieve on a console. And because Revolution will likely offer more value to DS owners with its demo sending capabilty.

Compared to the GC, Revolution will look:
1) Appealing - sleek design, at an affordable price -
2) Original - Revmote controls look easy, new and fun -
3) Open - to all Nintendo successes from the past, online gaming, DVDs and DS -
4) Unique - with new game genres undoable on other platforms -

These reasons make its future brighter than GC's ever was.

 

[soundwave05]

There could be some bit of correlation next gen though, because DS is creating franchises that people may want to retrieve on a console. And because Revolution will likely offer more value to DS owners with its demo sending capabilty.

Compared to the GC, Revolution will look:
1) Appealing - sleek design, at an affordable price -
2) Original - Revmote controls look easy, new and fun -
3) Open - to all Nintendo successes from the past, online gaming, DVDs and DS -
4) Unique - with new game genres undoable on other platforms -

These reasons make its future brighter than GC's ever was.

It's easy to be down on the GCN now, but at the time of its launch, it seemed to have a lot going for it also, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Really I think all boils down to whether or not Nintendo can create a big hit new franchise on Revolution, because they really weren't able to do that on GameCube. Pikmin didn't do it, Animal Crossing sold well, but mostly to Nintendo's existing audience.

 

[AirBrian]

Did it really take 3-4 MC59's to save a Madden season back in '02?

No. A season took one whole card (59 blocks IIRC), settings were 3 blocks, and rosters were 10-12. Unless you had multiple seasons going on, you would never need more than 2 MCs.

 

[Danthrax]

Well, not exactly the opposite(there are many great exclusives) but saying Xbox destroying the competition and not relying on one game(Halo anyone?) is abit out there imho.

To be fair, they DID release Halo 2 as well. :lol

...back on topic: Has anyone actually tried reading his original article? It sounds like he just needed to write a column this week and this topic sounded interesting to him, so he rambled on about it for a couple thousand words. I especially like this quote from the top of Page 2:

Whether through some sort of master genius trend anticipator, a corporate account with Miss Cleo’s psychic hotline, or sheer dumb luck, Nintendo has just the strategy to take advantage of the situation.

It sounds like he's describing how he can make all these wild predictions in this column, not Nintendo's strategy.

 

[Gio_CoD]

It's easy to be down on the GCN now, but at the time of its launch, it seemed to have a lot going for it also, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Really I think all boils down to whether or not Nintendo can create a big hit new franchise on Revolution, because they really weren't able to do that on GameCube. Pikmin didn't do it, Animal Crossing sold well, but mostly to Nintendo's existing audience.

That's true. I remember thinking that Cube had a lot going for it at launch, and we know how that turned out.

Still though, Nintendo tried competing in a traditional manner, they couldn't do it, and now they're trying to expand the market. Gotta at least give 'em credit for trying.

 

[Sanjuro]

Simply I'm a Nintendo fan. I'm also a videogames fan. I will support PS3 and XBOX360...but I will not forget which company has the best 1st party fanchises, gives me the biggest bang for the buck, and being able to download some of my biggest memories growning up (Super Metroid being first) and play them again at will legally.

I love Nintendo, they are doing a great job with the DS. I believe they will do the same with the Revoultion. While being 1st place is stretching it, Japan should do very well there. In America there are too many people who need games where you play as rappers and kill police and buy powerful systems with no games for the sake of saying they have it.

 

[dog$]

In America there are too many people who need games where you play as rappers and kill police and buy powerful systems with no games for the sake of saying they have it.

Simply I'm a Nintendo fan.

You don't say.

 

[VanMardigan]

Call of Duty 2 is worth the price of an xbox 360, if you don't have a high end pc. Anyway, I think the Revolution talk is extremely premature considering we haven't seen any games yet. Games win console wars, not hardware. We'll know Revolution's true potential when we see the games, and not an instant before.

 

[Sanjuro]

You don't say.

So your saying your a fan of 50 Cent: Bulletproof.............. :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Archie]

Constant profitability be damned, this is the generation where Nintendo finally goes third party. I've got a good feeling about this.

 

[marc^o^]

It's easy to be down on the GCN now, but at the time of its launch, it seemed to have a lot going for it also, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Really I think all boils down to whether or not Nintendo can create a big hit new franchise on Revolution, because they really weren't able to do that on GameCube. Pikmin didn't do it, Animal Crossing sold well, but mostly to Nintendo's existing audience.

GC was not sleek, unique, open, nor original :-/

GC franchises played just like their N64 ancestors (including Animal Crossing BTW). The console had a kiddy look, none of its games couldn't be done on PS2/xBox and the console couldn't read DVD, CDs, wasn't opened to the Internet, and you had to buy a GBA movie player to play your GBA games on TV.

My points stand.