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[Lord Frieza]

I changed the title of the article in my title to clarify this was actually a high-ranking official saying this, and not just a random North Korean defector. It's interesting to read about, because I think a lot of us have an image of a North Korea with a solid and incredible hold on its people and officials under the cult of Kim that's ruled the state for decades now. Sounds like it's starting to crumble under Jong-un, and if what this guy is saying is true, there may very well be a coup brewing in some form.

One of the most senior North Korean officials to defect has alleged that his country's government is on the verge of collapsing as its people become increasingly frustrated with repressive policies and governance.

"I'm sure and I can say that Kim Jong-un's days are numbered," said Thae Yong-Ho, who was North Korea's deputy ambassador to Britain before fleeing to South Korea in August.

In his first press conference for foreign correspondents in Seoul, Thae said he expects more North Korean officials will follow suit by defecting.

The elite were "turning their backs" on Kim, he said, adding: "The traditional structures of North Korean systems are crumbling."

Once "unthinkable", acts of low-level dissent or criticism were becoming more frequent.

Source: Al Jazeera

 

[Viewt]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

 

[guek]

Trump will take credit

fuck, Trump will probably give him asylum and then appoint him to his cabinet

 

[Megalosaro]

Let's hope he's not wrong. I'm always skeptical regarding stuff like this. Plus there is always a concern that the resulting power vacuum will be pretty rough. Things will be worse for the people of NK before they are better. This regime will not go down quietly.

 

[Majine]

Technically, aren't all of our days numbered? We just don't know them.

 

[Akuun]

fuck, Trump will probably give him asylum and then appoint him to his cabinet

He probably would if Kim was white.

 

[Megalosaro]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

China won't let that happen. They're pissed off enough at the number of refugees coming across the border.

 

[Fox318]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

China will move in before the South Korea.

They don't want a US military base near their border

 

[Tagyhag]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

China will step in for sure. South Korea unifying the country isn't going to happen, it'd be an economical disaster.

China still wants that nice gap.

 

[guek]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

Likely the latter, it's one of the reasons China continues to be NK's biggest ally. South Korea doesn't want the economic burden even if the idea of reunification is popular. If Kim's regime falls, they'll either set up a brand new government or a new despot will take over.

 

[capitalCORN]

Let's hope he's not wrong. I'm always skeptical regarding stuff like this. Plus there is always a concern that the resulting power vacuum will be pretty rough. Things will be worse for the people of NK before they are better. This regime will not go down quietly.

His uncle (before being turned to a fine red mist by artillery) wanted to open up the system the way China did. He was the highest ranked member of the party before Kim Jong Un returned. I imagine many have the same idea.

 

[Impeccable]

Do they have any oil? Trump is looking for opportunities.

 

[CarpeDeezNutz]

Trump will take credit.

That was my first thought when I read the OP.

 

[Ithil]

He probably would if Kim was white.

He'll make him Secretary of Arithmetic. Once he's told that is not an office, he will create it to replace the EPA. Its purpose will be to invent fictional numbers for the administration to compensate for Trump's feelings of inadequacy.

 

[Frozenprince]

And thus begins the greatest humanitarian crisis of our time.

South Korea can barely handle it's own population. Let alone 35M more people and footing the bill for a country to be rebuilt from the ground up.

If Trump doesn't foot most of the bill (and he won't) this will be a disaster of unprecedented proportions. It'll make the migrant crisis look like childs play.

 

[Poohblaster]

I hope whatever happens to the regime is peaceful as possible.

 

[BocoDragon]

I dunno if I believe it. A NK defector says Kim's days are numbered... emphasis on "defector". He'd probably be biased to look at it like a sinking ship if he chose to flee, but who knows the reality.

 

[Sectorseven]

Is North Korea's population really too much for a country like China to bear? They literally have empty cities waiting to be filled.

 

[Megalosaro]

Do they have any oil? Trump is looking for opportunities.

If they had oil, they'd be another Venuzuella. They're not.

 

[Frozenprince]

Is North Korea's population really too much for a country like China to bear? They literally have empty cities waiting to be filled.

It's not just raw numbers, its the fact that the majority of them are entirely unskilled and conditioned.

 

[Debirudog]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

China doesn't want any of that.

 

[-Eddman-]

I think it's great for the people over there if that horrible regime finally ends, but on the other hand, I don't think it will be easy at all to rebuild a nation full of brainwashed communities who have never seen the outside world.

 

[guek]

Do they have any oil? Trump is looking for opportunities.

North Korea has jack shit in terms of natural resources

 

[Theonik]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

It is one possibility but I don't know how the public feels about unifying with the South. There is also doubt the elites that are said to be seeking to depose Kim are interested in re-unification so he will simply be replaced. Benefits of re-unification aren't that strong for them since that means surrendering power so unless their purpose for taking power is ending it (lol) then it's unlikely.

e: And yes count on China to interfere.

 

[BocoDragon]

China will move in before the South Korea.

They don't want a US military base near their border

What if.... Trump pulls the military out of SK? Sounded crazy a year ago, but Trump. Could change the dynamic between SK, NK and China completely.

 

[guek]

South Korea can barely handle it's own population.

Eh? South Korea doesn't want the economic burden of reunification but wtf is this about

 

[Extra Sauce]

The natural balance of dictatorships being corrected...

 

[Borgnine]

Reunification would completely wreck their MMR.

 

[guek]

It is one possibility but I don't know how the public feels about unifying with the South. There is also doubt the elites that are said to be seeking to depose Kim are interested in re-unification so they will simply be replaced. Benefits of re-unification aren't that strong for them since that means surrendering power so unless their purpose for taking power is ending it (lol) then it's unlikely.

North Korean citizens have also been told since birth that South Korea is a US puppet state and that the US in tern is evil incarnate so don't expect it to be popular with the general population either.

 

[JohnsonUT]

What if.... Trump pulls the military out of SK? Sounded crazy a year ago, but Trump. Could change the dynamic between SK, NK and China completely.

Very strongly doubt that happens especially with his total anti-China rhetoric. It would also totally piss off conservatives.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Let's hope he's not wrong. I'm always skeptical regarding stuff like this. Plus there is always a concern that the resulting power vacuum will be pretty rough. Things will be worse for the people of NK before they are better. This regime will not go down quietly.

I mean, I'm there with you, too, but the fact that this was a major official in the N. Korea government tells me it's not all smoke. I mean, I guess he could just trying to play some kind of angle as revenge on Un, but the world is already almost entirely against the North (outside China, obviously). We'll see what happens. If more officials defect and start saying the same thing, though, I think it's fair to say some real shit is about to go down.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wow he must be confident to allow his name/identity be used openly.

Even if NK is NK, they must have a couple field agents operating overseas who could try to assassinate such an outspoken high ranking defector

 

[Ether_Snake]

The military would likely take over, abandon their nuclear program in exchange for international support while they implement reforms. I don't think they would allow massive emigration. Maybe you'd get a wave early on, but if support is swift it would be manageable.

 

[TyphoonStruggle]

The natural balance of dictatorships being corrected...

There can be only one.

 

[kmfdmpig]

China will step in for sure. South Korea unifying the country isn't going to happen, it'd be an economical disaster.

China still wants that nice gap.

They do, but if they take over in a meaningful way and take responsibility for the people then that will cost them a fortune. It'll be like West Germany absorbing East Germany only 10 times worse.

 

[shira]

TFW Kim Jong Un is interchangeable with Trump and the headline still makes sense

 

[AlimNassor]

China is and South Korea are both shitting bricks. If North Korea collapses that's bad for everyone. Everyone wants the status quo to remain the same.

 

[LegendofJoe]

And thus begins the greatest humanitarian crisis of our time.

South Korea can barely handle it's own population. Let alone 35M more people and footing the bill for a country to be rebuilt from the ground up.

If Trump doesn't foot most of the bill (and he won't) this will be a disaster of unprecedented proportions. It'll make the migrant crisis look like childs play.

China will take this on. South Korea will go to them once Trump refuses to help. We'll lose our military presence there, which is exactly what China wants.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

More than likely a coup will happen backed by China than NK descending into chaos.

 

[Sectorseven]

It's not just raw numbers, its the fact that the majority of them are entirely unskilled and conditioned.

Isn't North Korea already largely farming and manufacturing focused, albeit much more primitively? It doesn't seem like training them would be an impossible task. This is oversimplifying things, of course.

 

[Cagey]

So what happens with the country crumbles? Does South Korea make a move to unify the country? Mass immigration from North Korea to China?

It's the primary reason China props up DRPK.

 

[BocoDragon]

Very strongly doubt that happens especially with his total anti-China rhetoric. It would also totally piss off conservatives.

But consider his "countries need to foot the bill for their own defence" rhetoric. US pulling bases out of foreign countries is absolutely on the table in the Trump worldview.

You'd also think cozying up to Russia would piss off conservatives, but he's singlehandedly changed the rules of who we consider an enemy.

 

[Iolo]

‘This Will Be The End Of Kim Jong-Un,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Defector For Seventh Time This Decade

 

[smurfx]

i figure china would install a puppet leader and then exploit NK for near slave labor.

 

[King Kye]

Maybe I missed it in the article, but I don't see any explication of how/why his days are numbered. Are key members of his regime disgruntled? An angry populace in a totalitarian state doesn't mean shit.

In his first press conference for foreign correspondents in Seoul, Thae said he expects more North Korean officials will follow suit by defecting.

The elite were "turning their backs" on Kim, he said, adding: "The traditional structures of North Korean systems are crumbling."

I was reading a bit fast it seems. Why are they pondering defecting though? Surely not because Kim Jong Un is a meanie poopoo head.

 

[Lord Frieza]

‘This Will Be The End Of Kim Jong-Un,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Defector For Seventh Time This Decade

Has there been a lot of High-Ranking officials who have defected and said this? I'm not aware of any myself.

 

[Apathy]

‘This Will Be The End Of Kim Jong-Un,’ Says Increasingly Nervous Defector For Seventh Time This Decade

 

[Elaugaufein]

But consider his "countries need to foot the bill for their own defence" rhetoric. US pulling bases out of foreign countries is absolutely on the table in the Trump worldview.

You'd also think cozying up to Russia would piss off conservatives, but he's singlehandedly changed the rules of who we consider an enemy.

This is a good narrative but it's not true, US Conservatives have been softening on Russia for a while given its strong religious and anti-Gay stances and Putin's Strong Man Persona (also that Russia is effectively a corrupt Oligarchy probably doesn't hurt). It was happening well before Trump was a thing, he just made it a Republican party thing rather.

 

[capitalCORN]

Maybe I missed it in the article, but I don't see any explication of how/why his days are numbered. Are key members of his regime disgruntled? An angry populace in a totalitarian state doesn't mean shit.

Considering his compulsive habit of murdering his loyals, they may have gotten a wee bit tired of the fear token.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Maybe I missed it in the article, but I don't see any explication of how/why his days are numbered. Are key members of his regime disgruntled? An angry populace in a totalitarian state doesn't mean shit.

I'm pretty sure that when he's talking about elites, he's talking about the military and other similar ranking officials, not like a social elite in the sense that we think when we use the word.