sonycowboy
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Official August 2004 NPD Prediction thread.
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
sonycowboy
Member
I knew I posted this too late in the week. Friday = death.
Anyway, I'll bump again on Monday.
Early predictions:
1) PS2 HW sales will be crap and may be beat by Xbox, depending on how hard Xbox hw was to find.
2) Madden killed ESPN on PS2 > 1.1 million
3) Madden killed ESPN on Xbox > 500k (I might change this once I think about it more)
4) ESPN > NCAA
Anyway, I'll bump again on Monday.
Early predictions:
1) PS2 HW sales will be crap and may be beat by Xbox, depending on how hard Xbox hw was to find.
2) Madden killed ESPN on PS2 > 1.1 million
3) Madden killed ESPN on Xbox > 500k (I might change this once I think about it more)
4) ESPN > NCAA
Pretty boring month... here's my take:
GBA: 360000
PS2: 270000
Xbox: 200000
Gamecube: 85000
Top 10 overall (just units sold, not dollars, right?)
1. Madden 2005 (PS2)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox)
3. ESPN 2K5 (PS2)
4. Spider-man 2 (PS2)
5. ESPN 2K5 (Xbox)
6. Madden 2005 (GC)
7. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox)
8. Spider-man 2 (Xbox)
9. NCAA 2005 (PS2)
10. Halo (Xbox)
Now the september NPD... That's going to be interesting... And the rest of the year will only get better!
GBA: 360000
PS2: 270000
Xbox: 200000
Gamecube: 85000
Top 10 overall (just units sold, not dollars, right?)
1. Madden 2005 (PS2)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox)
3. ESPN 2K5 (PS2)
4. Spider-man 2 (PS2)
5. ESPN 2K5 (Xbox)
6. Madden 2005 (GC)
7. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox)
8. Spider-man 2 (Xbox)
9. NCAA 2005 (PS2)
10. Halo (Xbox)
Now the september NPD... That's going to be interesting... And the rest of the year will only get better!
Thx for the info SC... I think Jarrod nailed it. August is traditionally higher than July (I think Wedbush predicted 8%), but shortages have to be taken into consideration. PS2 got nailed harder than Xbox. GC will probably pick up some of the slack along with it's expected growth, so it will have higher month-to-month percentages than Xbox and PS2.
Just to change it up a bit from jarrod's prediction... I think there might be just a bit more growth
PS2 = 280K
XB = 255K
GC = 135K
September NPD will be more exciting with some key releases like Fable, SW: Battlefront, etc.
Just to change it up a bit from jarrod's prediction... I think there might be just a bit more growth
PS2 = 280K
XB = 255K
GC = 135K
September NPD will be more exciting with some key releases like Fable, SW: Battlefront, etc.
Alcibiades
Member
Nintendo on the rebound as Pikmin 2 anticipation hits the gaming scene. That and the Metroid Prime/ Echoes demo bundle attracts some attention.
Nintendo should almost certainly hit about 125,000 for the month. September will be the telling month though, as Nintendo had a slow month software-wise in August.
also, I think the PS2 shortage situation got a little exaggerated. Gamestop and Ebgames have been in the business in a long time, but they still haven't mastered distribution.
I remember with the GCN shortage, 4-5 stores being out, but Circuit City having a ton of them. With the PS2, we'd get some for sure, sometimes with the network bundle even (like in mid-August), but by the end of August, it was pure solo-pack.
I see it making a little difference, but if you went out and looked, I'm sure some of the major retailers had them, since they have slower shipping distribution and probably kept them in retailer district/regional warehouses (at least that's they way Best Buy works I think, I got the impression that's why we received network combos way after others just carried regular ones or had run out of any period).
edit: It's funny, but the "shortage" thing is entirely controlled by supply/demand/shipping/worker's putting them out ASAP/general store preferences for consumers.
I know the Target where I live didn't have any XBoxes on the shelf (did they have in the back, I don't know), but they had 3 regular PS2's, 1 Metroid bundle, and 2 other Cubes.
Back in my hometown, Target and Gamestop had run out of PS2's. We (Best Buy) would run out of either XBox or PS2 depending on the week, habits of vacationing people from Mexico, etc... (though either sold-out case didn't last terribly long, sometimes we'd get more a day or two later).
The way I see it, it's partly random consumer behavior that is going to determine whether a casual consumer will find what they want.
Many of my customers while working at Best Buy didn't even know that Target carried videogames (where I'd send them sometimes if we didn't have a game).
Nintendo should almost certainly hit about 125,000 for the month. September will be the telling month though, as Nintendo had a slow month software-wise in August.
also, I think the PS2 shortage situation got a little exaggerated. Gamestop and Ebgames have been in the business in a long time, but they still haven't mastered distribution.
I remember with the GCN shortage, 4-5 stores being out, but Circuit City having a ton of them. With the PS2, we'd get some for sure, sometimes with the network bundle even (like in mid-August), but by the end of August, it was pure solo-pack.
I see it making a little difference, but if you went out and looked, I'm sure some of the major retailers had them, since they have slower shipping distribution and probably kept them in retailer district/regional warehouses (at least that's they way Best Buy works I think, I got the impression that's why we received network combos way after others just carried regular ones or had run out of any period).
edit: It's funny, but the "shortage" thing is entirely controlled by supply/demand/shipping/worker's putting them out ASAP/general store preferences for consumers.
I know the Target where I live didn't have any XBoxes on the shelf (did they have in the back, I don't know), but they had 3 regular PS2's, 1 Metroid bundle, and 2 other Cubes.
Back in my hometown, Target and Gamestop had run out of PS2's. We (Best Buy) would run out of either XBox or PS2 depending on the week, habits of vacationing people from Mexico, etc... (though either sold-out case didn't last terribly long, sometimes we'd get more a day or two later).
The way I see it, it's partly random consumer behavior that is going to determine whether a casual consumer will find what they want.
Many of my customers while working at Best Buy didn't even know that Target carried videogames (where I'd send them sometimes if we didn't have a game).
UbiSoftologist
Member
Hardware forecast:
PS 2: 290k
Xbox: 220k
GC: 110k
GBA: 370k
Top-10 software forecast (unit sales):
1. Madden 2005 (PS 2)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox)
3. ESPN NFL 2k5 (PS 2)
4. ESPN NFL 2k5 (Xbox)
5. Spider-Man 2 (PS 2)
6. Madden 2005 (GC)
7. NCAA 2005 (PS 2)
8. Spider-Man 2 (Xbox)
9. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox)
10. Athens 2004 (PS 2)
PS 2: 290k
Xbox: 220k
GC: 110k
GBA: 370k
Top-10 software forecast (unit sales):
1. Madden 2005 (PS 2)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox)
3. ESPN NFL 2k5 (PS 2)
4. ESPN NFL 2k5 (Xbox)
5. Spider-Man 2 (PS 2)
6. Madden 2005 (GC)
7. NCAA 2005 (PS 2)
8. Spider-Man 2 (Xbox)
9. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox)
10. Athens 2004 (PS 2)
sonycowboy
Member
Hardware forecast:
PS 2: 210k
Xbox: 190k
GC: 100k
GBA: 400k
Top-10 software forecast (unit sales w/o GBA sales):
1. Madden 2005 (PS2) 1.4 million (CE + Regular)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox) 600k
3. ESPN NFL 2k5 (PS2) 350k
4. ESPN NFL 2k5 (Xbox) 275k
5. Spider-Man 2 (PS2) 150k
6. NCAA 2005 (PS2) 135k
7. Halo (Xbox) 93k
8. Hot Shots Golf: Fore! (PS2) 90k
9. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox) 80k
10. NCAA 2005 (Xbox) 70k
PS 2: 210k
Xbox: 190k
GC: 100k
GBA: 400k
Top-10 software forecast (unit sales w/o GBA sales):
1. Madden 2005 (PS2) 1.4 million (CE + Regular)
2. Madden 2005 (Xbox) 600k
3. ESPN NFL 2k5 (PS2) 350k
4. ESPN NFL 2k5 (Xbox) 275k
5. Spider-Man 2 (PS2) 150k
6. NCAA 2005 (PS2) 135k
7. Halo (Xbox) 93k
8. Hot Shots Golf: Fore! (PS2) 90k
9. Rainbow Six: Black Arrow (Xbox) 80k
10. NCAA 2005 (Xbox) 70k
SolidSnakex
Member
AirBrian said:Wow, PS2 will be so low? Do you know something we don't or are you just going out on a limb?
He's basing it on the recent reports of the PS2 having a big shortage due to Sony holding back units till they get their new model ready.
sonycowboy
Member
jedimike said:
I might be. I'm really basing it off of the HW shortage being pretty severe. I asked my brothers (6 of us all over the country) to check the stores and all of us had a really difficult time finding PS2's and Xbox's were also in very short supply.
If people really were willing to hunt around for them or the shortage wasn't as severe as my anecdotal evidence shows, then I could easily be wrong by quite a bit.
Also, way to go after my low XBox numbers. LOL. Most people have it at 210k and I've got it at 190k because of shortages, whereas my PS2 numbers are like 70-80k lower than most people's numbers.
sonycowboy
Member
sonycowboy said:
I declare myself the winner!
Drinky Crow
Banned
PS2: 5M, 4.8M replacements for previously busted ones
Xbox: -60K, based on loss per machine
Gamecube: 6, 5 returned because it sux and 1 used to club a baby harbor seal to death instead of play games
Xbox: -60K, based on loss per machine
Gamecube: 6, 5 returned because it sux and 1 used to club a baby harbor seal to death instead of play games
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