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Official September 2004 NPD Prediction thread.

J

jarrod

Banned
Um.. why are your Pokemon RuSa LTDs so off?

POKEMON RUBY $68,132,163 2,156,813
POKEMON SAPPHIRE $61,551,081 1,943,114
 
J

jarrod

Banned
Oh yeah...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBA~ 700,000 (price drop + Pokemon)
Xbox~ 300,000 (shortage over)
PS2~ 200,000 (clearing out old models)
GC~ 100,000 (help!)
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
jarrod said:
Um.. why are your Pokemon RuSa LTDs so off?

POKEMON RUBY $68,132,163 2,156,813
POKEMON SAPPHIRE $61,551,081 1,943,114
Click to expand...


Still haven't had time to merge my GBA spreadsheets. I'll do it once I get Sept, I promise :D
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Cmon guys. You wusses! Take the pluge. Make predictions on software too!

Top 10 overall w/ NUMBERS for a specific platform
Top 5 for each system. w/ NUMBERS
 
J

jarrod

Banned
Top 10 (all dedicated formats)

01 Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green (GBA) Nintendo
02 Madden NFL 2005 (GBA/GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
03 BurnOut 3: Take Down (PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
04 ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2/XB) Take 2
05 Fable (XB) Microsoft Game Studios
06 NBA Live 2005 (GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
07 Def Jam: Fight for NY (GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
08 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (GBA/GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
09 Pikmin 2 (GC) Nintendo
10 Star Wars Battlefront (PS2/XB) LucasArts
 
Alcibiades

Alcibiades

Member
jarrod said:
Top 10 (all dedicated formats)

01 Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green (GBA) Nintendo
02 Madden NFL 2005 (GBA/GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
03 BurnOut 3: Take Down (PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
04 ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2/XB) Take 2
05 Fable (XB) Microsoft Game Studios
06 NBA Live 2005 (GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
07 Def Jam: Fight for NY (GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
08 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (GBA/GC/PS2/XB) Electronic Arts
09 Pikmin 2 (GC) Nintendo
10 Star Wars Battlefront (PS2/XB) LucasArts
Click to expand...
Battlefront got a mulit-million dollar push as well as a lot of push at retail from Gamestop and Best Buy, it's gotta be higher than Tiger/Def Jam and Pikmin...

NBA 2k5 won't be all that far from NBA Live IMO...
 
L

Link316

Banned
GBA 550,000
XBX 200,000
PS2 150,000
GCN 70,000

Top 10
1. Madden PS2 450K
2. Pokemon Fire 400K
3. Pokemon Leaf 400K
4. Fable 275K
5. Star Wars Battlefront Xbox 250K
6. Burnout 3 PS2 250K
7. ESPN NFL PS2 250K
8. Star Wars Battlefront PS2 200K
9. Madden Xbox 200K
10. NBA Live PS2 150K

Star Ocean 100K
Pikmin2 75K
Donkey Konga 30K
 
Alcibiades

Alcibiades

Member
Link316 said:
GBA 550,000
XBX 200,000
PS2 150,000
GCN 70,000

Top 10
1. Madden PS2 450K
2. Pokemon Fire 400K
3. Pokemon Leaf 400K
4. Fable 275K
5. Star Wars Battlefront Xbox 250K
6. Burnout 3 PS2 250K
7. ESPN NFL PS2 250K
8. Star Wars Battlefront PS2 200K
9. Madden Xbox 200K
10. NBA Live PS2 150K

Star Ocean 100K
Pikmin2 75K
Donkey Konga 30K
Click to expand...
fable sold 350,000 in it's first few days or something like that, and it was out for a couple of weeks in September at least...
 
J

jedimike

Member
thx sc, you delivered a quality preview thread... as usual.

First off, I want to get the 17 games over 100k out of the way...in no particular order

1. Madden PS2
2. Madden Xbox
3. ESPN PS2
4. ESPN Xbox
5. Tiger Woods PS2
6. Tiger Woods Xbox
7. Fable
8. Battlefront PS2
9. Battlefront Xbox
10. Pokem Red
11. Pokemon Green
12. Halo - pre halo2 anticipation
13. Burnout 3 PS2
14. Burnout 3 Xbox
15. Live 2005 PS2
16. Live 2005 Xbox
17. pikmin 2

Hardware:

Xbox 285K
PS2 235K
GC 110K
GBA = PS2+XB+GC
 
L

Link316

Banned
efralope said:
fable sold 350,000 in it's first few days or something like that, and it was out for a couple of weeks in September at least...
Click to expand...

I never believe those PRs, they usually use shipped figures

I forgot,
Katamari Damacy 30K
 
B

BojTrek

Banned
Looks like ESPN NFL2K5 will be a 1,000,000 unit seller for PS2 and possibly X-Box... Not bad!

Very nice move lowering the price this year to get some of the same buyers at $39.99 next year!
 
C

Catalyst

Banned
Prediction: This'll be the only month Fable will see the top 10. Pikmin 2 will see the top ten for two months in a row.
 
A

AirBrian

Member
GBA ~600K
Xbox ~250K
PS2 ~220K
GCN ~125K

01 - Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green (GBA)
02 - Madden NFL 2005 (PS2)
03 - Burnout 3: Take Down (PS2)
04 - Madden NFL 2005 (Xbox)
05 - Burnout 3: Take Down (Xbox)
06 - Pikmin 2 (GC)
07 - Fable (Xbox)
08 - ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2)
09 - Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (PS2)
10 - ESPN NFL 2K5 (Xbox)
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
I'm gonna have to put up cash (or maybe a game) to get you guys to actually make the software guesses aren't I? I might just do that. Although, I only have PS2 games and some of you probably wouldn't deem it worthy of your time.

To be qualified for the title of master of the NPD, you must make the required predictions :)

Cmon guys. You wusses! Take the pluge. Make predictions on software too!

Hardware numbers (rounded to 10k, at the least)
Top 10 overall w/ NUMBERS for a specific platform
Top 5 for each system. w/ NUMBERS
Click to expand...
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
EDIT: Forgot the GBA numbers

Hardware:

120k Gamecube
300k PS2
280k Xbox
530k GBA

Software:

1. Madden 2005 PS2
2. Pokemon FR/LG GBA
3. Madden 2005 Xbox
4. WWE DOR GCN
5. Fable Xbox
6. ESPN NFL 2k5 Xbox
7. Pikmin 2 GCN
8. Burnout 3 PS2
9. ESPN NFL 2k5 PS2
10. Star Wars: Battlefront PS2
 
S

Subitai

Member
GBA 567,432
PS2 320,893
XBX 301,094
GCN 119,037

1. Madden PS2 512,324
2. Pokemon FireRed GBA 502,893
3. Fable XBX 500,743
4. Burnout 3 PS2 498,343
5. Madden XBX 384,235
6. Pokemon LeafGreen GBA 377,704
7. NBA Live PS2 305,280
8. SW Battlefront PS2 295,891
9. SW Battlefront XBX 249,326
10. Tiger Woods PGA 2005 PS2 214,342

GBA
1. Pokemon FireRed GBA 502,893
2. Pokemon LeafGreen GBA 377,704
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?

PS2
1. Madden PS2 512,324
2. Burnout 3 PS2 498,343
3. NBA Live PS2 305,280
4. SW Battlefront PS2 295,891
5. Tiger Woods PGA 2005 PS2 214,342

XBX
1. Fable XBX 500,743
2. Madden XBX 384,235
3. SW Battlefront XBX 249,326
4. Burnout 3 XBX 210,389
5. ESPN 2K5 XBX 148,901

GCN
1. Pikmin 2 GCN 213,877
2. Donkey Konga GCN 135,325
3. Madden GCN 64,342
4. Super Smash Bros. Melee 37,943
5. Spider-man 2 30,238
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
Subitai said:
GBA 567,432
PS2 320,893
XBX 301,094
GCN 119,037

1. Madden PS2 512,324
2. Pokemon FireRed GBA 502,893
3. Fable XBX 500,743
4. Burnout 3 PS2 498,343
5. Madden XBX 384,235
6. Pokemon LeafGreen GBA 377,704
7. NBA Live PS2 305,280
8. SW Battlefront PS2 295,891
9. SW Battlefront XBX 249,326
10. Tiger Woods PGA 2005 PS2 214,342

GBA
1. Pokemon FireRed GBA 502,893
2. Pokemon LeafGreen GBA 377,704
3. ?
4. ?
5. ?

PS2
1. Madden PS2 512,324
2. Burnout 3 PS2 498,343
3. NBA Live PS2 305,280
4. SW Battlefront PS2 295,891
5. Tiger Woods PGA 2005 PS2 214,342

XBX
1. Fable XBX 500,743
2. Madden XBX 384,235
3. SW Battlefront XBX 249,326
4. Burnout 3 XBX 210,389
5. ESPN 2K5 XBX 148,901

GCN
1. Pikmin 2 GCN 213,877
2. Donkey Konga GCN 135,325
3. Madden GCN 64,342
4. Super Smash Bros. Melee 37,943
5. Spider-man 2 30,238
Click to expand...

Now that's a prediction :D
 
S

Subitai

Member
sonycowboy said:
Now that's a prediction :D
Click to expand...
Well, I wimped out on the GBA top 5. :/

I know I over predicted a little, but this month should be huge compared to the rest of the year thus far if people buy games on what they like and not what they have to spend.
 
H

Hero

Member
Pikmin 2 will probably be around 150-175K.

Pokemon FiLe will probably be almost a million combined.

Fable I'm guessing 125K-ish.
 
C

COCKLES

being watched
Project Midway said:
PS2 - 215 000
XBX - 285 000
GCN - 115 000
Click to expand...

I'm with him.

Unexpected prediction:-

So many Halo 2 pre-orders are written, they form a giant gestalt and become self aware, taking over humanity and ending all wars and famine. Only Halo 2 can do this.
 
J

jarrod

Banned
efralope said:
Battlefront got a mulit-million dollar push as well as a lot of push at retail from Gamestop and Best Buy, it's gotta be higher than Tiger/Def Jam and Pikmin...
Click to expand...
I'm only counting dedicated platforms (no PC will bring Battlefront down).
 
J

jarrod

Banned
Subitai said:
Well, I wimped out on the GBA top 5. :/
Click to expand...
I expect DBZ: Buu's Fury probably did really well (at least 100k, likely much more). F-Zero GP Legend might've done well too. Shark Tale, Finding Nemo 2 & Star Wars Trilogy are solid bets for top 5 material in terms of new games, Pokemon RuSa, Mario Advance 4 and Mario Vs DK for old stuff.

Oh and lots of people are undercounting GBA here I think. It moves 300k regularly on a slow month, a price drop and new Pokemon games are going to at least double those sales, plus sales accelerate naturally in the fall push to the holidays... 700k easy.
 
H

heidern

Junior Member
xbox - 250K
ps2 - 240k
GC - 150k
GBA - 600k

1. Pokemon 861k
2. Madden 674k
3. ESPN 408k
4. Burnout 384k
5. NBA Live 357k
6. DJ:V 276k
7. Tiger 263k
8. Fable 231k
9. Pikmin 2 187k
10. Star Wars 146k
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
Would love to see SO3, Gradius V, and Katamari on here but that's not happening, it's in too much competition with boring football/racing/licensed crap. :(
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Some guesses:

GBA/SP: 650,000
PS2: 200,000
Xbox: 210,000
GC: 100,000

1. Pokemon Fire Red - 550,000
2. Pokemon Leaf Green - 450,000
3. Madden 2005 - 400,000
X. Pikmin 2 - 150,000
X. Donkey Konga - 100,000
X. Silent Hill 4 (PS2) - 100,000
X. Silent Hill 4 (Xbox) - 30,000
 
F

Fularu

Banned
For once I'll try...

PS2 240k
XBOX 250k
GC 170k
GBA 770k

Pokemon 1000k (combined)
Pikmin 2 200k
DK 80k
Fable 200k
BO3 250k (combined)
SWB 150k (combined)
Madden 1000k (Combined)
ESPN NFL 400k ( combined)
ESPN NHL 140k (combined)
 
F

Fularu

Banned
For once I'll try...

PS2 240k
XBOX 250k
GC 170k
GBA 770k

Pokemon 1000k (combined)
Pikmin 2 200k
DK 80k
Fable 200k
BO3 250k (combined)
SWB 150k (combined)
Madden 1000k (Combined)
ESPN NFL 400k ( combined)
ESPN NHL 140k (combined)
 
A

Acrylamid

Member
sonycowboy said:
Required Predictions
You must make the following predictions.

1) Hardware (within 10k) each system
2) Top 10 overall (with or without GBA) w/ NUMBERS for a specific platform
3) Top 5 for each system (with or without GBA) w/ NUMBERS
Click to expand...
I tried to do it, but as there were so many games I couldn't evaluate (mainly all these EA Sports games), I cut my heavily flawed list down to a few games...

Hardware
GBA 600,000
PS2 300,000
XBX 250,000
GCN 125,000


Software

GBA
1 Pokemon FireRed 600,000
2 Pokemon LeafGreen 550,000

GCN
1 Pikmin 2 200,000
2 Donkey Konga 100,000

XBX
1 Fable 350,000
2 Burnout 3 250,000

PS2
1 Madden NFL 2005 400,000
2 Burnout 3 300,000

? Katamari Damacy 50,000

ALL
1 GBA Pokemon FireRed 600,000
2 GBA Pokemon LeafGreen 550,000
3 PS2 Madden NFL 2005 400,000
4 XBX Fable 350,000
5 PS2 Burnout 3 300,000
6 XBX Burnout 3 250,000
 
J

jedimike

Member
Other highlights for the month...

GC is sitting at 916K for the year. Should hit the one million mark.

Xbox is sitting at 1.790M for the year. Should clear the 2 million mark.

PS2 is sitting at 2.38M. Should clear the 2.5 million mark.

For reference, GC was a little higher last year at this point by about 200K at 1.113M. They dropped the price in October and the GC kicked into high gear the last three months of the year. To beat Xbox by about 200K for the year.

Xbox was at 1.4M at this point last year. So they're about 400K ahead of where they were last year.
 
C

cvxfreak

Member
Thanks for the statistics, jedimike. It's too bad that Nintendo hasn't done much this year to skyrocket GameCube sales. I really think they need that $79.99 price point about now.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
I expect a big month for GBA, Pokemon, EA, & Fable.

Hardware
GBA 530k
PS2 280k
XBX 260k
GCN 130k

Overall Top 10

1) Pokemon 810k (I can't choose between the two flavors)
2) Madden 2005 PS2 500k (Again, both CE & Regular)
3) Fable 400k
4) Burnout 3 PS2 230k
5) Pikmin 2 210k
6) Madden 2005 XBX 200k
7) NBA Live 2005 PS2 190k
8) Burnout 3 XBX 190k
9) ESPN NFL2k5 PS2 180k
10) Tiger Woods 2005 PS2 180k

PS2 Top 5
1) Madden 2005 500k
2) Burnout 3 230k
3) NBA Live 2005 190k
4) ESPN NFL2k5 180k
5) Tiger Woods 2005 180k

XBox Top 5
1) Fable 400k
2) Madden 2005 200k
3) Burnout 3 190k
4) ESPN NFL2k5 140k
5) NBA Live 2005 130k

GCN Top 5
1) Pikmin 2 210k
2) Donkey Konga 130k

I expect to go over 100k (besides those already mentioned)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Def Jam PS2
Star Wars Battlefront PS2,XBX
ESPN NBA2k5 PS2,XBX

Maybe Sly 2, X-men Legends PS2
 
S

Soul4ger

Member
This isn't related to the sales, per se, but can I go on record to say how Berserker good Pokemon Fire Red/Leaf Green is. Holy shit, it's the same goddamn thing, but they've polished it even more and the music fucking owns. Okay, I'm done with my off-topic blowjob session.
 
SantaC

SantaC

Member
efralope said:
Fable - 483,000
Madden PS2 - 450,000
NFL 2k5 PS2 - 250,000
Pikmin - 250,000
Donkey Konga - 85,000
Click to expand...

Donkey Konga exceeded expectations so I think atleast 100k.
 
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