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Over/Unders for March's NPD (warmup for real predictions)

S

sonycowboy

Member
OK,

So, here's the real prediction thread:

http://forums.gaming-age.com/showthread.php?t=42588

But, I thought it would also be fun (yes, I'm just that sick) to do some over/unders for various games / systems vegas style. Feel free to add your own over under or even some proposition bets (you know, what will be higher: the number of GCN games in the top 50 or the number of PSP games that sell over 75k)

So, here's my thought's on some over/unders:

1) PSP - 650k
2) PS2 - 500k
3) XBox - 260k
4) GCN - 130k
5) GT4 - 600k
6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP)
7) DMC 3 - 175k
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition)
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k
10) Tekken 5 - 150k
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title)
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3
21) GTA:SA - 125k

C'mon now. Indulge my sickness and make some predictions :D
 
1) under
2) under
3) under
4) under
5) under
6) over
7) under
8) over
9) under
10) under
11) over
12) under
13) under
14) under
15) under
16) over
17) under
18) under
19) over
20) over
21) under
 
1) over
2) over
3) under
4) under
5) over
6) under
7) over
8) over
9) over
10) over
11) under
12) over
13) over
14) under
15) over
16) under
17) under
18) under
19) over
20) over
21) under
 
1) PSP - 650k over
2) PS2 - 500k under
3) XBox - 260k under
4) GCN - 130k under
5) GT4 - 600k over
6) God of War - 150k over
7) DMC 3 - 175k under
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k under
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k over
10) Tekken 5 - 150k over
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k under
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k under
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k under
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k under
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k over
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k under
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k over
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k under
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k over
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3 under
21) GTA:SA - 125k under
 
1) PSP - 650k
Over - I'd say about 590k

2) PS2 - 500k
Over - I'd say about 300k

3) XBox - 260k
Over - I'd say 190k

4) GCN - 130k
Over - I'd say 100k

5) GT4 - 600k
Over - I'd say 400k

6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP)
Over - I'd say 99k

7) DMC 3 - 175k
Over - I'd say 150k

8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition)
Sounds about right

9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k
Sounds about right

10) Tekken 5 - 150k
Over - I'd say 100k

11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k
Never heard of this game

12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k
Never heard of this game

13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k
Sounds about right

14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k
Sounds about right

15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k
Over - I'd say about 65k

16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title)
I'm absolutely shocked this is the #1 PSP title... can't remember any hype whatsoever for this game and rather mediocre reviews. I'd say about 90k

17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k
Sounds about right

18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k
Sounds about right, this deserves to sell much more though

19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k
Over - I'd say about 75k

20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3
I'd say 1.2 - system is still real expensive and so are games, but early adopters frequently buy a ton of games with the system

21) GTA:SA - 125k
Over - I'd say 100k... sales are gonna start slowing down till they mark the price down.
 
1) PSP - 650k over 500k
2) PS2 - 500k over 420k
3) XBox - 260k over 140k (due to shortages)
4) GCN - 130k over 98k
5) GT4 - 600k under 640k
6) God of War - 150k over 130k
7) DMC 3 - 175k under 190k
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - under 180k
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k under 90k
10) Tekken 5 - 150k over 120k
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k under 140k
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k over 90k
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k over 60k
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k over 65k
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k under 190k
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k over 95k
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k under 140k
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k over 45k
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k over 90k
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3 under 1.4
21) GTA:SA - 125k over 95k
 
Looks like most of you don't bet sports...

Taking the over means that you would bet that there would be more than the points stated - or in this case units.

I am taking PSP over...at least 700K, easy.
 
1) PSP - 650k
2) PS2 - 500k
3) XBox - 260k
4) GCN - 130k
5) GT4 - 600k
6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP)
7) DMC 3 - 175k
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition)
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k
10) Tekken 5 - 150k
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title)
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3
21) GTA:SA - 125k


1) under
2) under
3) under
4) under
5) under
6) under
7) under
8) under
9) under
10) under
11) over
12) under
13) under
14) under
15) under
16) over
17) under
18) over
19) over
20) over
21) under
 
1) PSP - 650k - Under (500K)
2) PS2 - 500k - Under (340K)
3) XBox - 260k - Under (210K)
4) GCN - 130k - A bit under (110K)
5) GT4 - 600k - Under (400K)
6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP) - Even
7) DMC 3 - 175k - Over (200K)
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition) - Over (150K)
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k - Even
10) Tekken 5 - 150k Over (180K)
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k - Over (150K)
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k - Under (90K)
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k - Under (60K)
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k - Over (95K)
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k - Over (190K)
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title) - Even
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k - Under (100K)
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k - Under (30K)
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k - Under (80K)
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3 - Even
21) GTA:SA - 125k - A bit under (115-120K)
 
AbeFroman said:
Looks like most of you don't bet sports...

Taking the over means that you would bet that there would be more than the points stated - or in this case units.
Click to expand...

damn.

switch all my overs with unders and my unders with overs. and then buy me a gambling for dummies book.
 
1) PSP - 650k That's dead-on with what I predicted a few months ago, and I'm sticking by it.
2) PS2 - 500k Too high.
3) XBox - 260k Too high.
4) GCN - 130k Slightly higher than will be the case.
5) GT4 - 600k Too high
6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP) Too low
7) DMC 3 - 175k Too low
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition) Too low
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k Too high. This game won't sell 50K
10) Tekken 5 - 150k Too low
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k Too high
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k Too high
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k About right.
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k About right.
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k Right on the money.
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title) Too low.
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k Too low
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k Too high, sadly.
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k Seems about right.
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3 Seems about right.
21) GTA:SA - 125k Too low.
 
jarrod said:
1) over
2) over
3) under
4) under
5) over
6) under
7) over
8) over
9) over
10) over
11) under
12) over
13) over
14) under
15) over
16) under
17) under
18) under
19) over
20) over
21) under
Click to expand...

Jar,

Does your over mean what it's supposed to or that my number was too high? That is, do you think that 650k is too high for the PSP (for example)?

It seems like ~most people think that overall my numbers are too high, which could definitely be the case. I was just trying to come up with ballpark numbers that seemed like they would be reasonable, but not too low.
 
Didn't they say that Gran Turismo 4, God of War and Fight Night Round 2 led the month for sales? I could have sworn there was a thread about it.
 
Real number will be (over) or (under) according to my predictions.

1) PSP - 650k -- under
2) PS2 - 500k -- under
3) XBox - 260k -- under
4) GCN - 130k -- under
5) GT4 - 600k -- under
6) God of War - 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP) -- over
7) DMC 3 - 175k -- under
8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - 100k (only 5 days of sales, and there was a Limited Edition) -- over
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 75k -- under
10) Tekken 5 - 150k -- under
11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) 125k -- over
12) Republic Command (Xbox) 125k -- under
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 85k -- over
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 75k -- under
15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - 130k -- under
16) Untold Legends (PSP) - 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title) -- under
17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - 125k -- (well) under
18) Lumines (PSP) - 60k -- under
19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - 100k -- over
20) PSP Tie Ratio - 1.3 -- over
21) GTA:SA - 125k -- under
 
AbeFroman said:
Looks like most of you don't bet sports...

Taking the over means that you would bet that there would be more than the points stated - or in this case units..
Click to expand...

Lol i was thinking the exact same thing looking over all of the predictions. I was like uh how is 590k over 650k :lol. In fairness though i can see how people totally removed from that type of gambling could read it as technically being an overprediction and an underprediction.
 
1) PSP - 500K
2) PS2 - 300K
3) XBox - 200k
4) GCN - 150k
5) GT4 - 300k
6) God of War - 150k
7) DMC 3 - 125K
9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - 100K
10) Tekken 5 - 125K
13) Pokemon Dash DS - 90K
14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - 80K


All that I care to predict about.

Edited:

GT4
 
1) PSP - over 650k

2) PS2 - at 500k, still in demand

3) XBox - under 260k

4) GCN - under 130k, how you come up with 130K with almost no releases? 0_o

5) GT4 - at 600k

6) God of War - over 150k (only 10 days, lots of competition against PSP, & a new IP)

7) DMC 3 - under 175k

8) Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory (Xbox) - under 100k, think people are tired of SC

9) Donkey Kong - Jungle Beat - under 75k

10) Tekken 5 - under 150k

11) Brothers-In-Arms (Xbox) under 125k

12) Republic Command (Xbox) under 125k

13) Pokemon Dash DS - under 85k

14) Yoshi's Touch & Go - under 75k

15) Timesplitters:FP (All platforms) - under 130k

16) Untold Legends (PSP) - under 150k (claimed by both EB & Gamestop to be #1 PSP title)

17) Ridge Racer (PSP) - over 125k

18) Lumines (PSP) - over 60k, always see this among Amazon's top sellers

19) Tony Hawk (PSP) - under 100k

20) PSP Tie Ratio - over 1.3, think it'll be closer to 2

21) GTA:SA - under 125k
 
sonycowboy said:
Jar,

Does your over mean what it's supposed to or that my number was too high? That is, do you think that 650k is too high for the PSP (for example)?
Click to expand...
No, too low. As in I'm expecting the figure to be over what you mentioned.
 
am i missing something? why are the GT4 predictions so high? the game came out in feburary you know, and it already did 600k and the fanbase has likely already rushed out and bought it. why would the second month sales be so high in march which is not during holiday season?

also, why would anyone predict over 600k for psp? didn't sony already announced the 150 million number for first week? if you divide that by $250 that's 600k. meaning actual number will likely be a little above 500k.
 
acklame said:
am i missing something? why are the GT4 predictions so high? the game came out in feburary you know, and it already did 600k and the fanbase has likely already rushed out and bought it. why would the second month sales be so high in march which is not during holiday season?

also, why would anyone predict over 600k for psp? didn't sony already announced the 150 million number for first week? if you divide that by $250 that's 600k. meaning actual number will likely be a little above 500k.
Click to expand...

1) I probably should have put the over/under on GT4 at 450k in hindsight. The reasons why I think it will have great numbers are that it was released the last week of February (only 4 days of sales for most stores) and that March is a 5-week month

2) The Sony PR was put out on Thursday, April 7th and thus could at best include retailer comments through Wednesday. That gives 3 more days, with Friday and Saturday being 2 out of best "sales" days of the week. So, I added in an extra 50k as a possibility. I agree that Sony pretty much defined what we should expect.
 
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