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[vaibhavpisal]

Cmon indeed. You are just making up numbers my man.

Companies have actual data. They can make informed decision.

But the point stands. BG3 has hit the zeitgeist. They can make the most of it. It wont remain the same forever.

 

[GHG]

Companies have actual data. They can make informed decision.

But the point stands. BG3 has hit the zeitgeist. They can make the most of it. It wont remain the same forever.

Where do these numbers come from then?:

Imagine if this were on gamepass now. That would double the player count + $20-30 million after some negotiations.

 

[Topher]

This is why I say it's been more luck than judgement when they manage to get games like expedition 33 and palworld launching on the service.

Literally a case of throwing enough shit at a wall to the point where a few things are bound to stick.

Yep. We are talking about the same folks who thought Redfall was at least an 8/10 game per internal projections so, combined with how they drastically underrated BG3, can't exactly say they have a talent for recognizing blockbusters vs duds.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

This is why I say it's been more luck than judgement when they manage to get games like expedition 33 and palworld launching on the service.

Literally a case of throwing enough shit at a wall to the point where a few things are bound to stick.

Their curation is good. Some of them go properly viral. A lot of them dont.

Still a good curation is best they can do.

Where do these numbers come from then?:

How much do you think Larian will charge for putting BG3 on gamepass?

 

[Topher]

Companies have actual data. They can make informed decision.

But the point stands. BG3 has hit the zeitgeist. They can make the most of it. It wont remain the same forever.

I'm not saying Baldur's Gate 3 will never be on Game Pass. At some point, it very well may be, but they were never going to sacrifice sales for Game Pass.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

Yep. We are talking about the same folks who thought Redfall was at least an 8/10 game per internal projections so, combined with how they drastically underrated BG3, can't exactly say they have a talent for recognizing blockbusters vs duds.

Agreed, have been saying it awhile now, Phil can not spot a great game because he plays a lot of these before hand

 

[GHG]

How much do you think Larian will charge for putting BG3 on gamepass?

I don't work in their content acquisition team so I have no idea.

Which is why I'm asking you where you're getting your numbers from along with the assertion that they would would have had double the players as a result.

 

[adamsapple]

Which is why I'm asking you where you're getting your numbers from along with the assertion that they would would have had double the players as a result.

I don't think having 'double the players' is a stretch for when a game launches on GP.

 

[GHG]

I don't think having 'double the players' is a stretch for when a game launches on GP.

The problem is that this doesn't hold true for all titles.

Some will be skewed more towards sales, some will skew more towards those playing it via the subscription, and some games will flop in both cases entirely.

It doesn't work out the way that the marketing suggests it does for everyone:

 

[Topher]

I don't think having 'double the players' is a stretch for when a game launches on GP.

Are we saying double the players only as far as Xbox players is concerned?

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Ninja Theory, Compulsion, Tango

 

[adamsapple]

Are we saying double the players only as far as Xbox players is concerned?

I don't know what context GHG used it in, but if the recent analytics data from Doom is to be believed, Game Pass had about 3x, or more, the numbers of the PS+Xbox's estimated sales. If that data is accurate, then it's more than double the number of total console base.

The problem is that this doesn't hold true for all titles.

Some will be skewed more towards sales, some will skew more towards those playing it via the subscription, and some games will flop in both cases entirely.

It doesn't work out the way that the marketing suggests it does for everyone:

Sure, it doesn't work out for every game on retail either. Not every game can be a hit on every platform.

As far as Metal Hellsinger goes, it was a fun, but small, game with little to no replay value, prompting websites to put out articles like this:

Why Metal: Hellsinger is the Perfect Game Pass Game

With its first major update, Metal: Hellsinger has added a plethora of new features increasing the game’s suitability for Xbox Game Pass.

www.cbr.com

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Are we saying double the players only as far as Xbox players is concerned?

Depends on how launch is handled.

I know a lot of people who would at least give it a shot on GP.

 

[Three]

No they didn't, you and T Three
Are confusing their internal estimate from when the game was in early access.

Larian was not given that offer.

Xbox Estimated A Very Low Price To Get Baldur’s Gate 3 On Game Pass

Xbox underestimated the game's massive success.

www.gamespot.com

What do you think their internal estimate was for exactly? The game was in early access on PC and they were trying to get it onto gamepass for $5M. Of course the game became a resounding success when it launched so their offer would have been absolutely shit by then but prior to knowing how much it would blow up that's what they were trying to offer.

 

[adamsapple]

What do you think their internal estimate was for exactly? The game was in early access on PC and they were trying to get it onto gamepass for $5M. Of course the game became a resounding success when it launched so their offer would have been absolutely shit by then but prior to knowing how much it would blow up that's what they were trying to offer.

I estimate I can give you $15 to get "Phil's Property" tattooed on your butt, that doesn't mean I'm gonna give you that offer.

You said MS offered Larian that amount, which is factually incorrect.

 

[GHG]

I don't know what context GHG used it in, but if the recent analytics data from Doom is to be believed, Game Pass had about 3x, or more, the numbers of the PS+Xbox's estimated sales. If that data is accurate, then it's more than double the number of total console base.

I didn't use it in any context. I was questioning vaibhavpisal and his use of it.

Sure, it doesn't work out for every game on retail either. Not every game can be a hit on every platform.

As far as Metal Hellsinger goes, it was a fun, but small, game with little to no replay value, prompting websites to put out articles like this:

Why Metal: Hellsinger is the Perfect Game Pass Game

With its first major update, Metal: Hellsinger has added a plethora of new features increasing the game’s suitability for Xbox Game Pass.

www.cbr.com

It doesn't matter what websites put out after the fact.

The developers and publisher of that game were persuaded to put their game on the service day one based on the pitches they received which were based on data/information that the guys over at Xbox knew to be false/fabricated at the time:

Which is why it's stupid for anyone to go around parroting the kinds of marketing lines that would usually be reserved for the people in the gamepass content acquisition team when they are out on pitches.

 

[Topher]

I don't know what context GHG used it in, but if the recent analytics data from Doom is to be believed, Game Pass had about 3x, or more, the numbers of the PS+Xbox's estimated sales. If that data is accurate, then it's more than double the number of total console base.

It was vaibhavpisal 's context, not GHG . That data does not tell us Baldur's Gate 3 would "double the players" if it were on Game Pass. And you are conflating players and sales either way. Not sure what point that makes.

 

[Three]

I estimate I can give you $15 to get "Phil's Property" tattooed on your butt, that doesn't mean I'm gonna give you that offer.

You said MS offered Larian that amount, which is factually incorrect.

and why would you estimate this if you had no interest? Whether they presented that offer or not you have no information about but regardless that is what MS were willing to offer for it as a potential gamepass target, yes or no?

Had Larian not known how much of a success BG3 would have been and went for their offer it would have been a bad move. That's the point that you're missing and splitting hairs over.

 

[adamsapple]

It was vaibhavpisal 's context, not GHG . That data does not tell us Baldur's Gate 3 would "double the players" if it were on Game Pass. And you are conflating players and sales either way. Not sure what point that makes.

I mean, yes. Double the players is a direct correlation between sales and total players, it's not much conflating when it's the direct point. The Doom example is there to show a big game that launched on the service that we have some kind of estimates for, be they verifiable or not.

BG3 didn't launch on GP so we can only assume using other examples.

It doesn't matter what websites put out after the fact.

The developers and publisher of that game were persuaded to put their game on the service day one based on the pitches they received which were based on data/information that the guys over at Xbox knew to be false/fabricated at the time:

Persuaded, not strong-armed. Most publishers, you'd assume, have their own market research teams that can find out this stuff for them and make a conscious decision to put their game on the service.

And for every guy who is suddenly unhappy year(s) after the fact, there's also those who continue to be happy.

 

[GHG]

BG3 didn't launch on GP so we can only assume using other examples.

By "other examples" you mean "best case scenario examples".

But what's also notable is that you're using data from Alinea Analytics here.

Persuaded, not strong-armed. Most publishers, you'd assume, have their own market research teams that can find out this stuff for them and make a conscious decision to put their game on the service.

And for every guy who is suddenly unhappy year(s) after the fact, there's also those who continue to be happy.

Not all publishers/developers will have the resources/time to do the necessary market research, especially to a degree where they can get relevant data for the specific type of game they are planning to release.

Like I said before, there's very much a "luck of the draw" element to all of this. Palworld probably enjoyed the most successful launch of any gamepass title at the point in time when they released their game so of course they are going to state they had a good experience. But it's not as if to say they saw it coming:

The Palworld Team Was "Pleasantly Surprised" By The Game's Early Success

The devs also say they are “very satisfied with the current player base."

www.thegamer.com

 

[adamsapple]

But what's also notable is that you're using data from Alinea Analytics here.

Yes, I've said multiple times on this page 'if that data is accurate', can't vouch for accuracy since these kind of numbers aren't put out by any first or third party dev/pub.

Like I said before, there's very much a "luck of the draw" element to all of this. Palworld probably enjoyed the most successful launch of any gamepass title at the point in time when they released their game so of course they are going to state they had a good experience. But it's not as if to say they saw it coming:

Sure, nothing wrong with agreeing that it's a luck of the draw, also nothing wrong with agreeing that all games probably don't get the same kind of ad/exposure treatment on the service. That's pretty much par for course for all platforms.

The Xbox social / GP marketing / console tiles etc are limited resources, they can't realistically advertise every game similarly, so they have their job to pick and choose which games they believe will be best for them.

 

[Topher]

I mean, yes. Double the players is a direct correlation between sales and total players, it's not much conflating when it's the direct point.

Explain how there is a "direct correlation" between players and sales.

One game's performance cannot be used to determine another's in hypotheticals so just ignoring all that.

 

[adamsapple]

Explain how there is a "direct correlation" between players and sales.

One game's performance cannot be used to determine another's in hypotheticals so just ignoring all that.

It's not just one game though, every time one of those "reached x million players" thread comes out, lots of people coming to the same conclusions that most of those are probably GP (or some other sub) instead of direct sales.

We've never had anyone putting estimated numbers on those things before, that's the only new / different thing now.

Anyway, you're focusing too much on the sales part. My original point was that it isn't a stretch to assume that a game launching on GP would have double the numbers at launch than it would just at retail.

 

[Mr Moose]

It's not just one game though, every time one of those "reached x million players" thread comes out, lots of people coming to the same conclusions that most of those are probably GP (or some other sub) instead of direct sales.

We've never had anyone putting estimated numbers on those things before, that's the only new / different thing now.

Anyway, you're focusing too much on the sales part. My original point was that it isn't a stretch to assume that a game launching on GP would have double the numbers at launch than it would just at retail.

 

[Topher]

Anyway, you're focusing too much on the sales part. My original point was that it isn't a stretch to assume that a game launching on GP would have double the numbers at launch than it would just at retail.

Eh....I'm focusing on the "direct point" you made and pointing out the flaw of combining players and sales to make it. But fine.....if we are going back to your original point then I go back to my original question because I might agree with you if we are talking about doubling the number of players on Xbox, but absolutely not if we are suggesting Game Pass would double up number of players overall.

 

[adamsapple]

Eh....I'm focusing on the "direct point" you made and pointing out the flaw of combining players and sales to make it. But fine.....if we are going back to your original point then I go back to my original question because I might agree with you if we are talking about doubling the number of players on Xbox, but absolutely not if we are suggesting Game Pass would double up number of players overall.

Might not be the case for every game, like Mr Moose pointed out the Palword but it's probably a higher ratio, if I were to take a guess.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Can someone explain to me why devs keep putting their games on gamepass?

When did gamepass launch? theres no way that these publishers dont have data now to understand how it works. Especially publishers like Sega etc who keep putting their games on the service.

Okay literally 8 years ago on the 17th of June. I think the service has been running long enough to get a grasp on how it works. Theres no way publishers don't discuss in private "off record" as well.

If game pass makes it to 10 years and continues with banger after banger from multiple Devs / Publishers then something is going right for them on Gamepass.

 

[Zacfoldor]

I love my gamepass bros and my gamepass devs. I will never blame you for anything bad gamepass brings. That is totally separate from my hatred of gamepass.

I could never blame you my loves. Never blame you for taking a great deal. Never blame someone for being thrifty. Others finances are not my business. However, in my mind, gamepass hurts the industry I love so you cannot ask me to like it. Anytime you give away something cheap or free in order to get business it is called a "race to the bottom" and it is a last ditch effort to outmaneuver your competitor. The market is hurt by this as the price of "games" is arbitrary and set by society as are most luxury goods. When you devalue these goods in the market you reduce the price people are willing to pay to buy games and the price people are willing to pay to create games. It is a desperate move that damages the industry, look no further than the latest Doom.

Save your money. Enjoy your life. But do not tell yourself to believe you are doing something righteous and noble. You are saving money off the back of a corporation giving away the store in a desperate attempt at cultural relevancy. Make out with what you can while it lasts.

From Google AI: A "race to the bottom" describes a situation where individuals, companies, or even countries compete by lowering standards, such as wages, environmental protections, or worker safety, to gain an advantage over others. This competition can lead to negative consequences for all involved, as the quality of products or services may decline and workers may experience worse conditions.

The situation is more easily understood in the context of gas stations. If a gas station in town is going out of business because it is located in a bad spot , but the owner is rich and decided to sell gas for a penny a gallon for a year to drive all the other gas stations out of business, that is a race to the bottom. That is what gamepass is.

 

[DragonNCM]

Gamepass is business, if your game is shit then you get shitty compensation but if is......good money starts to rain

 

[Topher]

Can someone explain to me why devs keep putting their games on gamepass?

When did gamepass launch? theres no way that these publishers dont have data now to understand how it works. Especially publishers like Sega etc who keep putting their games on the service.

Obviously some devs see a good deal with Game Pass, particularly those who need funding. Others don't. I don't think there is any mystery here as far as publishers are concerned. Some will put their games on game pass at launch while others will wait until after sales dip enough to go that route. If a game sells poorly then the chance it will be on Game Pass sooner increases. I mean....there are multiple scenarios out there.

Sega and Microsoft made some massive deal years ago and they have had a close partnership ever since. I imagine Microsoft would be happy to make deals like that with other publishers, but it takes two to tango.

 

[Ozriel]

Somehow I don't think every dev gets paid what PocketPair gets paid. So while it very well may be worth it for some games, I don't think he can really make that statement for all.

Gamepass deals are struck well before the games are released.

Nobody expected Palworld would be a mega hit, least of all the devs. I don't think Pocketpair was paid a kingly sum

 

[Topher]

Gamepass deals are struck well before the games are released.

Nobody expected Palworld would be a mega hit, least of all the devs. I don't think Pocketpair was paid a kingly sum

If Palworld didn't get paid a "kingly sum" then they were robbed.

 

[Ozriel]

Gamepass is business, if your game is shit then you get shitty compensation but if is......good money starts to rain

They don't wait until reviews before striking GP deals. And not all deals are tied to downloads or play count. Some are flat cash payments up front. Some cover a set number of unit sales.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Obviously some devs see a good deal with Game Pass, particularly those who need funding. Others don't. I don't think there is any mystery here as far as publishers are concerned. Some will put their games on game pass at launch while others will wait until after sales dip enough to go that route. If a game sells poorly then the chance it will be on Game Pass sooner increases. I mean....there are multiple scenarios out there.

Sega and Microsoft made some massive deal years ago and they have had a close partnership ever since. I imagine Microsoft would be happy to make deals like that with other publishers, but it takes two to tango.

Yup. This 100%

If Palworld didn't get paid a "kingly sum" then they were robbed.

I cant see how palworld got s lot of money. It was a complete unknown really. It just blew up and I think gamepass / word of mouth etc all assisted

 

[Topher]

Yup. This 100%

I cant see how palworld got s lot of money. It was a complete unknown really. It just blew up and I think gamepass / word of mouth etc all assisted

We don't know either way. I'm saying if they didn't then they should have. Also, if they didn't then that highlights the risks of a game pass if the game turns out to be a hit.

 

[Little Chicken]

I see the Topher / GHG spitroast from hell is here to minimise more Game Pass success

 

[GHG]

I see the Topher / GHG spitroast from hell is here to minimise more Game Pass success

 

[havoc00]

Best VALUE IN GAMING!

 

[Topher]

I see the Topher / GHG spitroast from hell is here to minimise more Game Pass success

 

[Wildebeest]

When steam was not open to all it was a huge win for an indie to be released on steam.

 

[KenaiPhoenix]

Like people have stated: not everyone gets this deal.

If your title is already a succeed and is hyped/withlisted as hell, then yeah MS will pay you a lot for the license. But for small indies that are barely making sound, they will get the other end of the stick.

 

[Brakum]

IMO this pretty much confirms that it's not just an upfront cost but there have to be bonusses om top of it. Even if the palworld devs asked fir 10x what they though they would sell, they would be losing a lot of money because palworld did at least 100x better than their best case scenarion. So if it's worth it for them, there have to be some bonusses or something.

Or was it not on gamepass day one and just got added after it blew up?