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predict how strong IVAN will be when it hits the Gulf coast tomorrow

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doncale

Banned
right now Ivan is a 'weak' category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds of 135 mph.

will it be weaker, stronger, or about the same, when it hits the Gulf coast tomorrow morning?
 

Matlock

Banned
ivan_drago.jpg


It'll peter out with about 3 minutes to go.
 
Forecasters said Ivan, blamed for at least 68 deaths in the Caribbean, could reach 160 mph and strengthen to Category 5, the highest level, by the time it blows ashore as early as Thursday somewhere along the Gulf Coast.

bring the pain!
 

pestul

Member
Hmm, it seems Ivan is passing over a warm eddy which may aid in intensification. :(

National Hurricane Center is still predicting ~130mph at landfall though..
 

Orin GA

I wish I could hat you to death
Dont worry. new Orleans will be made into a huge parking lot after its wiped out. The legend shall live on!
 

Phoenix

Member
bionic77 said:
This might be the end of New Orleans. :(

Nah New Orleans is tough - she's not going anywhere. As bad as the projections are - this won't be a direct hit (thank God) so the damage won't be as bad as many of the projections.

If a hurricane of that severity were to strike the city directly, the death toll would most likely be well about 9/11.
 

bionic77

Member
Phoenix said:
Nah New Orleans is tough - she's not going anywhere. As bad as the projections are - this won't be a direct hit (thank God) so the damage won't be as bad as many of the projections.

If a hurricane of that severity were to strike the city directly, the death toll would most likely be well about 9/11.

It doesn't have to be a direct hit though, from what I understand the most possible damage will occur if it hits a little SW of the city which could lead to 20 feet of flooding. How close is the storm projected to be to the city?

From what I read if the storm comes close to New Orleans it would be all over for the city, it would just be underwater.
 

tedtropy

$50/hour, but no kissing on the lips and colors must be pre-separated
The highway on my way to work (I live in Texas) was packed with Louisiana license plates making their exodus from potential doom. Made me late, the fuckers.
 

Phoenix

Member
bionic77 said:
It doesn't have to be a direct hit though, from what I understand the most possible damage will occur if it hits a little SW of the city which could lead to 20 feet of flooding. How close is the storm projected to be to the city?

From what I read if the storm comes close to New Orleans it would be all over for the city, it would just be underwater.

Nah. The storm is strong but it isn't THAT strong. Unless the levees along St. Charles give way, the city will have some flooding, but it will be fine. Being 'under water' for New Orleans will be a little different than what you may expect. Under flooding I've gone outside and seen my car in waist deep water, but that's almost 'accepted normal' for New Orleans.

When you know you're below sea level, there are certain things in the city that you just come to expect and accept. The nightmare scenario that people are talking about with 12-15 feet of standing water in downtown New Orleans would require a complete failure of the levees, the pumps, the canals, the routing walls, etc. That scenario is likely to occur ONLY in the event of a direct strike on the city by a slow moving hurricane that dumps water on the city continuously.

In the scenario that's expected there will be 'feet' of flooding possible, but nothing along the lines of Betsy or Camille.
 

DJ Sl4m

Member
tedtropy said:
The highway on my way to work (I live in Texas) was packed with Louisiana license plates making their exodus from potential doom. Made me late, the fuckers.

On the local radio station here this morning the DJ said that traffic was backed up waaaaaaaaaaay past the texas/Louisiana state line and that reports were it was as far as Houston.

I thought that was a bit stretching it, but no doubt traffic here in Baton Rouge La. was sick all day long.
 

Phoenix

Member
Anyone on the roads, its too late. Get in where you can fit in and ride it out there. The 'cane is already hitting the cost and the last thing you want to do is be stuck out on the road when it arrives.
 

tedtropy

$50/hour, but no kissing on the lips and colors must be pre-separated
DJ Sl4m said:
On the local radio station here this morning the DJ said that traffic was backed up waaaaaaaaaaay past the texas/Louisiana state line and that reports were it was as far as Houston.

I thought that was a bit stretching it, but no doubt traffic here in Baton Rouge La. was sick all day long.

Yep, I head towards downtown Houston when going to work on I-10. It's usually pretty free-flowing in the morning, but it was bottlenecking like crazy today. I looked around when I had the chance and there were Louisiana license plates everywhere. All the hotels near my work and home are just loaded with people...
 
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