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[Speevy]

A common theme of any generation is talk of developer support. Some companies, like Square-Enix, choose to support one platform mainly. Same deal with Tecmo's Team Ninja. But the more important question is not about what support is given, but rather how the games will fare in the market, and what sort of impact will they have on each platform? Last generation, Rare created a few games that sold millions of copies. This generation? Not one. So things change. It's not always about the right franchises either, as games like Tomb Raider can quickly fall out of critical and market favor.

So the point of this thread is as follows.

Based on this criteria:

1) Sales potential (units)
2) Importance to individual hardware manufacturers
3) Strategic growth as a business

Evaluate a few or several major (and minor) companies. Basically, just tell if you think these companies' importance will increase, decrease, or stay the same based on these three factors. Feel free to tell why in as much or little detail as you like. Here's a list of companies for reference. Feel free to choose others.

1) Microsoft Games Studios
2) Bungie
3) Konami
4) Valve
5) Capcom
6) Namco
7) Electronic Arts
8) THQ
9) Bioware
10) Nintendo
11) Rockstar Games
12) Take-Two
13) Atari
14) Majesco
15) Midway
16) Square-Enix
17) SCEA
18) Atlus
19) Sega
20) Activision
21) Blizzard

Small developers are more fun to evaluate as well, so predict the fate of Doublefine, Starbreeze, Silicon Knights, Swingin' Ape, Sucker Punch, and others in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Borys]

Where's Blizzard and Valve?

HL2 sold a fuckload of copies so did WoW. You think those franchises aren't imoprtant or what?

 

[The End]

Where's Blizzard and Valve?

HL2 sold a fuckload of copies so did WoW. You think those franchises aren't imoprtant or what?

Didn't you get the memo, PC gaming is dead.

 

[thorns]

about the publishers:

biggest fall will be nintendo (they currently have 12% share and 2nd place I think, while EA has 17%)
I expect EA to continue to grow in sales, but lose market share due to other publishers catching up, unless they come with another "hit" ip.
Activision has made huge gains this gen, and I expect that to continue that and do very well next gen.
Same goes for Take Two.
THQ will also improve, but probably a bit behind activision and take two.
MGS probably will do better also, if Xbox 360 is more of a success than the Xbox was, maybe be on par with Sonyin terms of first party sales if they do things right.

OTOH, big media companies could also take market share from the main publishers.

 

[FitzOfRage]

Where's Blizzard and Valve?

HL2 sold a fuckload of copies so did WoW. You think those franchises aren't imoprtant or what?

Well he mentions you can add your own. It's not a comprehensive list (and a couple are a little redundant I think, like listing Square and Square-Enix for example).

 

[radioheadrule83]

I'm no authority to make informed guesses, but I can tell you how I see things, or what I wanna see:

Konami
I want to see a more platform agnostic Konami next generation. A game as awesome as Snake Eater should not have been left on one console. Pro Evolution Soccer needs to carry on getting maximum exposure if they wanna carry on sticking it to EA. I would really like them to support the handhelds more. I especially want to see what they can do on DS - I'm looking foreward to Lost in Blue. I think they'll carry on with all their tried and true hits, and put out the lisenced stuff again. I think they'll stay as is in the scheme of things.

Square-Enix
I can fully understand why companies supported PS2 so ardently, but this one really could make a killing on any platform it hits IMO. I think it's time to expand relations with MS and Nintendo.

Capcom
Capcom deserve growth IMO, but I don't know if they'll end up taking measures to survive instead - like a merger etc. They have some really creative people working there, as indicated by efforts from Studio 4, Flagship, Clover etc. They put out crap sometimes, but they've also put out one of this gens best games, and I really love the way they weren't afraid to go a little old school with Viewtiful Joe, or come way out of left field with Okami and Killer 7.

Electronic Arts
They are so effortlessly dominant it baffles the mind. Their sports titles will no doubt continue to reap rewards, and even when they lose Bond, as long as they keep signing up amazing franchises like LOTR and The Godfather, they're probably going to be unaffected in a generation that will probably cripple so many. Unless... the only way is down?

THQ
More nickelodeon bollocks and Wrestling = healthy THQ? Formulas worked so far...

Nintendo
A wildcard. A hardware house with high durability/efficiency standards, but it's the hardware aspect under scrutiny. They're a software house of excellence beyond repeal. They go into next generation as something of a perceived underdog, but they're capable of big things. They've been an excellently run business to this point... are they going to persevere, carve out a niche, firmly mark their importance once again, or fall somewhere inbetween? Depending on what happens with DS and Gameboy, the handheld war could rock them hard. There again, are Sony more likely to drop the ball with two markets to attack?

Majesco
Handhelds will probably continue to be their bread and butter. No change.

Atlus
Snowboard kids = please rise to heaven. I love you!

Sega
SEGA evidently got it horribly wrong with some Xbox titles. They got it very right with Sonic and Monkey Ball on cube. PS2 has been a sure bet for them on plenty of stuff. As with those franchises, they need to find better homes for their software, or actually be platform agnostic like they said they would be all along.

Silicon Knights
Whatever console they're working on, I wanna see something good come of all the time spent on Too Human. It'd be great if it got lots of mainstream attention, and moreover, deserved it.

 

[djtiesto]

1) Microsoft Games Studios - Based on many preditions, the 360 is set to sell more than the original Xbox, and if MGS publishes a consistent stream of games (and not refusing to publish certain niche titles this time! *cough*Phantom Dust*cough*Oddworld*cough*) they'll do great.

2) Bungie - One hit wonder, nowadays. I'd love to see them do something more interesting than another Halo game, but it'll still do really well. Maybe not as well as the second one, but...

3) Konami - Did very well sales-wise this generation, although a lot of that was whoring anime licenses and Bemani games. Drop in quality IMO this generation - Suikoden 4, Nanobreaker, and LOI seem to attest to that... although the MGS games still kick ass. Hopefully will make better games next generation.

4) Square - Poised to have a banner year this year and next. Not only in sales (KH2, FFXII) but in the quality - Radiata Stories, Grandia III, DQ8. When they get some more portable games out, that'll help out a LOT. Diversifying platforms, ESPECIALLY to Nintendo, will surely help (CC seemed to do rather well on Cube and DoS and KH did well on GBA).

5) Capcom - Shame to see them doing so poorly. I'm really impressed how they've turned around from the "marginal updates year after year" laughing stock of the industry to one who has released some of the most innovative stuff this year. RE4, Okami, BOFVQ. But they really lost mainstream mindshare. Don't like what they've done to their 2D fighters. Could be in some big trouble if they don't release more grade A titles/don't support the "right" system next gen.

6) Namco - It's really difficult to say. I like how they're taking a risk in bringing more esoteric titles to the states, but they haven't really been advertising as much as usual. Will probably gain their income from the same hardcore gamers they've always gotten it from.

7) Electronic Arts - They'll do fine, but probably sell a less than these past few years till the next generation "settles in".

8) THQ - I can't believe this company's been around for this long. SOMEONE has to be buying their games... but who?

9) Bioware - I can't make a conclusion since I don't know how they've fared in the past. Is Jade Empire doing well? Did KOTOR do well? They'll probably always have the hardcore PC gamer market, but then again I don't know how big that is.

10) Nintendo - They'll always have the portables, IMO. Nintendogs will probably be a bona-fide hit in the states, moving more DSes. I can see a DS price drop for the holidays, which will help them, and Zelda will be a nice boost to them. Revolution is such a wild card it's not even funny. Could either make them the laughing stock of the industry, or make them the laughing stock of the industry with the best selling platform (like with the DS). Who knows?

11) Rockstar Games - Another one-trick pony company. I don't remember any of their non GTA titles ever making it big, critically and commercially. Next-gen GTA is sure to be huge, but some people are saying that that series time has come (I don't think so, though).

12) Take-Two - Should do nicely now that they have the ESPN games under their belt. But I'm sure that losing the Madden license provided a crushing blow to them.

13) Atari - Not sure how much longer they have. They just haven't been getting the mainstream hits and usually pick some pretty poor games to publish.

14) Majesco - I don't know too much about them, but BloodRayne has been a minor hit for them, apparently. If they publish more niche stuff like Phantom Dust, and less licensed shovelware, I can see them building up a reputation for that.

15) Midway - Some of their games have done well critically, but I can't think of any hits Midway has had. The MK series still does okay, though it's way past its prime, IMO. I don't think they're ever gonna be on top.

16) Square-Enix - See what I said for 4

17) SCEA - People still haven't been burnt out on Ratchet, Jak and Sly. They'll need to get more God of War level hits, i.e. original games that do well critically and commercially. Could see things slow down for them as the generational transition occurs and their main developers (Insomniac, etc) come to grips with the PS3.

18) Atlus - They've firmly established a niche. Even though their games don't do rather well, they still keep 'em coming. I never understood why that was, but I'm not complaining (as a fan) As long as the games keep coming over from Japan they'll do well for themselves. Want to see them have a huge, S-E level hit but I don't think that's happening any time soon.

19) Sega - I *WANT* them to do well after being such a longtime fan, but they continue to make ridiculous business decisions. As retarded as it is, Shadow the Hedgehog should do well, and hopefully PSU lives up to its offline forebearers. Buying up Creative Assembly will certainly help their cause.

20) Activision - Even after all these years, people still haven't been burned out on Tony Hawk. (I thought the series peaked at 3 and rapidly declined since then). When the 3rd Spiderman movie comes out, I'm sure they'll make nice profits on that game. But beyond Tony Hawk and Spiderman, what else do they have? Need more original titles...

21) UbiSoft - Deserves to get hollowed out by EA as they keep on raping POP and won't listen to the fans with a new BG&E.

 

[AB 101]

1) Microsoft Games Studios

MGS will be pretty strong this gen. I expect some good titles.

2) Bungie

Halo 3. 'Nuff said.

3) Konami

Will remain a big player, as always.

4) Square

While not into their types of games, they will stay fairly strong, but perhaps not like in the past.

5) Capcom

Will do okay. I want to see what new ideas they can bring to the table.

6) Namco

Always been a fan of Namco. I am sure they will not dissapoint in the racing genre.

7) Electronic Arts

Lets see if they can continue milking the cows. Its something they rely on pretty heavy.

8) THQ

Been growing and I expect it to continue.

9) Bioware

Don't know alot about these guys?

10) Nintendo

Mario and Zelda will once again play a large part in their overall plans. They have milked these franchises to great profits over the years, why stop now?

11) Rockstar Games

GTA. 'Nuff said.

12) Take-Two

Need to think about this one.

13) Atari

A few good ones, a few turds. A few more turds and they will be dead and buried. My favorite name in the industry.

14) Majesco

???

15) Midway

Could really take a hit this next gen.

16) Square-Enix

Can't really give an opinion here.

17) SCEA

I expect some good PS3 stuff out of them. Have a number of successful franchises. Hope to see something new on PS3.

18) Atlus

Don't know here.

19) Sega

I want to see next gen remakes of some old classics. Outrun, Sega Rally, Virtua Fighter, and Daytona come to mind. Fuck Shenmue unless one wants weak sales.

20) Activision

How long can they milk Spiderman and Tony Hawk.

They will suffer mightliy if they think the formula will continue to work.

 

[Sathsquatch]

I think that most franchises that were popular during the PS1 days are running out of steam with a few exceptions.

A company like Neversoft will be weakened because Tony Hawk no longer excites people.

Similarly, I think Konami has been hurt by declining interest in the Metal Gear Solid franchise. MGS3 sold poorly despite the fact that it was easily the best game in the series. The game was easily eclipsed by more recent hits like GTA and Halo, which I expect will continue in the future unless the developers at Konami can radically reimagine the series in a way that fully exploits the new technology and offers a new experience (in the same way that RE4 did).

I think that Square has been hurt by their inability to produce an exciting new FF game that wasn't merely a spin off of the series (like FFX-2 or FFXI). Even when FF returns to the market, it may not impress as it once did because its cinematic presentation is no longer uncommon in big budget games.

Sony will probably remain strong as a publisher because they will probably support new IP's while abandoning IP's in danger of becoming antiquated like they did this generation when they dropped Spyro and Crash in favor of their new platformers. The Gran Turismo series will continue to be a major attraction, but they need improve their AI and online options in order maintain the perception that the game is still the best driving sim around (especially with all the positive impressions of Forza coming out).

Nintendo almost seems determined to become even more niche than they were before. They have a ridiculous notion that buttons are somehow too complex for the masses and their investment in new ways of gaming interfaces will probably force them to produce hardware that is significantly less powerful than it could have been (as was the case with the DS). Nintendo will continue to shy away from investing large amounts of time and money into their games as they have done recently, which make them unable to compete with other publishers in the console space. Nintendo will retain its core following, but remain with a stagnant population of gamers supporting them while the rest of the gaming market expands somewhat.

EA will remain as prominent as they were before by simply licensing games and producing sports games. Since the industry as a whole will probably continue to grow and a demand for these games will continue, EA will grow as well.

Capcom could really help themselves by publishing an RE game similar to RE4 on PS3 because it will still feel relatively new considering the dramatic changes that occurred in RE4. Overall, they need to reimagine other franchises like they did with RE or create new IP's to help them escape the financial downward spiral they have been on.

 

[Speevy]

Where's Blizzard and Valve?

HL2 sold a fuckload of copies so did WoW. You think those franchises aren't imoprtant or what?

No. I never said that was every company out there. I just chose 20 off the top of my head. Add your own.

 

[Apenheul]

Bungie
Whatever Bungie makes, it will be hyped and marketed like there's no tomorrow, they're going up. But honestly I think Microsoft doesn't need to rely on Bungie anymore next gen.

Konami
Konami will be safe and sound next gen, maybe slightly dropping if they focus on one platform too much.

Valve
Not sure about this one, they take a hell of a lot time to finish a project. If they're going to support next-gen consoles then they stand a good change to become even more popular.

Namco
I think Namco will be "fine" but like always they're overestimating the sales of their games, I expect Namco to be focussing on exclusives.

Electronic Arts
Electronic Arts is just getting bigger and bigger, owning a lot of popular franchises, now who's there to stop them?

Nintendo
Difficult one.. If their next console is truly so innovating then there's a good change many people will buy a Rev as a second console. On the other hand I could also see people avoiding Nintendo's console at all cost because of the same reason. At least they still play a big part in the handheld market and their software will sell well no matter what.

Rockstar Games
Depending heavily on what the next GTA is going to look like. Meanwhile other companies are copying GTA's gameplay and making even prettier games (well, that could be the case). Rockstar is going down a little I think.

Square-Enix
I expect them to be very active on the handheld market while delivering a multi-console title every once in a while. They were popular this gen, and most likely stay so next gen.

Sega
Sega really needs to get their act together, Sega lovers were mostly on Nintendo's side this gen and for some reason Sega didn't notice that. I actually expect Sega to do worse than this gen

Blizzard
Starcraft 2 on all next-gen consoles.. wishfull thinking?

 

[Andrew2]

Rather than name publishers and developers, I would say the smaller developers seem to be on the rise whereas publishers are going to take the fall. The reason being is that the smaller/independent developers are pretty much the the ones who are going to take risks to bring things original(sucks that the cost of development these days is killing the smaller devs) whereas the money aka the publishers take the fall. The way I see it...

the smaller developers = vultures

the publishers = the corpes waiting to eaten up.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

Bungie: In my opinion, they will be the fastest studio to grow. Halo 3 will be a hit and I imagine they will start branching out into new efforts. At the end of the X360's life, they will probably have 2 or 3 successful franchises under their belts, making them a true trump card for Xbox 3.

Capcom: I honestly expect them to close up shop by the end of the generation. Resident Evil is on its last breaths, their other efforts aren't big performers. Their fighting franchises are ignored and will probably never be popular again, even if Street Fighter 4 or Alpha 4 might come out. They'll score a million hit here and there but I imagine they'll merge with Konami, Tecmo, or maybe be bought out by Microsoft.

EA: Big as always. I don't expect anything less unless they start botching up their franchises. They won't do that so they'll be big and around.

Koei: I hope they grow big but with DW's slowly declining popularity, they might go back down to almost obscure status like the pre DW days. That or DW could explode with their online game and a next generation offer.

Konami: They'll be a decent name. They lost a lot of power with Bemani being dead but they'll be around. MGS is declining but still gets a lot of attention and MGS4 will be no different. They'll probably start up some new franchises.

Nintendo: I expect them only to get 5% marketshare for the next generation. The X360/PS3 hype will be too strong. Probably not their last piece of hardware with Revolution but the next one might be. The DS will probably be 50/50 with PSP or a little more. GBA2 won't come out until 2007 or 2008.

Rare: I think they will be dissolved entirely. As much as it is to be excited about their new X360 offerings, I don't think they will sell and MGS will just dissolve them. They'll keep the property rights and any success might have a sequel done by different developers.

Sega: They'll be gone by next gen. They have yet to get their act together. Started off strong as a third party but now they are jokes. Each new title from them gets worse and worse. As costs rise and Sega's name meaning next to nothing, Sega/Sammy will not be able to compete. They may run back and be arcade only. That or develop software for other publishers like MGS, Nintendo, SCEA, etc. similar to what Bizarre or Insomniac do.

Square/Enix: Fading over time but still putting out some strong hits. I imagine FF will be almost meaningless by the end of PS3's life. DQ will still go strong. Other than a couple hits here and there not related to FF or DQ, they will shrink.

Take Two: GTA will lose steam but their other properties are turning out nicely. I think they will become the 2nd EA. In time of course but I believe they are a force to be reckoned with.

Tecmo: I think they will grow over time. DOA4 and NG2 will be hits. I also imagine they will start up new projects. I think they will start PSP development too. It is the most powerful handheld. Although it will probably be updated ports from the past.