UbiSoftologist
Member
In a research note released early this week, Anthony Gikas of Piper Jaffray & Co predicted R&D costs of video game publishers to soar more than expected from 2005 to 2006:
We expect the Xbox 2.0 to launch in November 2005 and the PlayStation-3 to launch in November 2006. We think the incremental expense to develop for the Xbox platform before the PlayStation will be greater than many expect. Currently the typical front-line development process calls for the development of a video game for the PlayStation platform (e.g., $10M-plus) followed by an affordable port to the X-Box platform (e.g., $1.5M-plus). What happens when the X-Box launches before the PlayStation... you have two primary platforms to develop for, and R&D costs escalate. On balance, we think publishers will have more primary SKUs in their pipeline starting in late CY05 through CY07. Technologies of the X-Box and PS3 are moving closer to together and ports from the X-Box to the PS3 may be possible at higher incremental costs. Additionally, we think game development costs for the next generation of video game console software will increase 50%-75% (we hear from publishers a range of 30%-300% increases). And finally, we are hearing from developers that development cost for a front-line PSP title will certainly be in excess of $2 million per title (maybe much higher). At the end of the day, we expect R&D costs will move higher than anticipated during CY05-CY06 as publishers not only contend with new and more expensive technologies but development for three primary new platforms (PSP, X-Box and PS3). We expect the R&D ramp to moderate during the 2H07.