Edit: The short answer is no.
Putting aside all of the usual bickering over HD, online/no-line, DS v.s. PSP, etc., does anyone else think that Nintendo has already reached their logical bottom? I honestly don't see how Nintendo can fare any worse than they have during this generation of hardware, where they've been left with only their most core supporters.
In previous generations, Nintendo would launch a new system with some obvious advantage over its competitors. That's not to say that Nintendo's consoles were superior to their competition, but a consumer could at least say "Nintendo's system does *this* - the other guys don't". The Cube never had that benefit. From the beginning, any talk about capability centered around what it did badly, what it didn't do at all, and worse, what it looked like.
Even if Nintendo doesn't add HD capability to Revolution and they don't try to compete in computational power, the system will have some positive differentiators from the competition. That's all but ensured by the retro download network, Revolution's physical design, and whatever control hook/gimmick they come up with. The console will have an identity that's based at least partially on what's good AND different about it, instead of just the negative.
And that brings me to my next point. Nintendo has done a horrible job of providing standout software for their home console. The games haven't been bad; they just don't fit in enough to dominate existing genres, but at the same time, they aren't different enough to be recognized by a consumer as being unique. You can see this with almost every big Nintendo-published title. They're viewed as weird because they straddle the line between starched-collar orthodox and daringly original.
Wind Waker is an extreme example of this. Ignore the distant past and 'old spirit' of the series - Wind Waker's visuals weren't what most gamers expected from the Zelda series. It was basically the same game that they had always played, but the visuals were a turn off and the gameplay wasn't different enough to force the naysayers to give it a chance. There's no doubt that the game hurt GCN's prospects from a very early stage.
Metroid Prime is another example that's hard to ignore - the gameplay is completely different from what people are used to for games with Metroid Prime's orthodox visuals. People want multiplayer from their FPSes, they want free look, and they want all of the other trappings of FPS titles. Metroid Prime completely shits on tradition, and gives gamers what a lot of them don't want.
A lot of people think that Nintendo bears no blame for gamers' reactions to these titles, but they do. The unwashed masses should understand Nintendo's delicate genius, and all of that crap. Judged on their own, these games may be masterpieces. I certainly think that they are. But for Nintendo to release these games without alternatives that are more orthodox is to completely turn their back on a market that wants to buy Nintendo's software.
There wasn't a lot preventing Nintendo from developing Twilight Princess instead of TWW and making a new cel-shaded adventure series in parallel. The Zelda title would have sold better, and the new IP would have had a chance at drawing in new gamers and trying out alternative play mechanics. Similarly, had Nintendo found a way to provide a true superstar FPS, Metroid Prime's design decisions wouldn't have been nearly as controversial. There would have been something else to compare to Halo, and Metroid Prime could have been recognized for what it is instead of what it isn't.
I think that Nintendo is starting to understand that gamers' expectations should be met. They're taking Mario Kart and Animal Crossing and replacing ham-fisted attempts at multiplayer play with true online gaming. Twilight Princess fixes the areas where Wind Waker failed - the visuals are what people naturally expect from Zelda games, and the horseback riding, sword play, and wolf mechanics will be exciting enough to attract those who are looking for a change.
At the same time, their experiments are becoming more and more distant from established genres. These games aren't "weird" versions of mass market games, like Pikmin was. Nintendogs, regardless of what's available on other systems, is not the kind of software that people are experienced with. The same goes for Brain Training, Electroplankton, and so on. If these experiments are successful, Nintendo immediately becomes the market leader in a new genre, and can dictate the direction that they want that genre to move in. Doing that is probably a lot easier and potentially more profitable than making oddball versions of existing titles. Most importantly, it provides us with games that we might just enjoy on a very pure level. Think about how you felt the first time you played a defining game in a new genre. That can't happen without experimentation.
All in all, I still have doubts, but I think that Nintendo stands to do very well with Revolution. They might not compete on the same level as MS and Sony, but they aren't going to disappear. And for the first time since before the N64, I don't feel like I know what to expect. That can only be a good thing.
Putting aside all of the usual bickering over HD, online/no-line, DS v.s. PSP, etc., does anyone else think that Nintendo has already reached their logical bottom? I honestly don't see how Nintendo can fare any worse than they have during this generation of hardware, where they've been left with only their most core supporters.
In previous generations, Nintendo would launch a new system with some obvious advantage over its competitors. That's not to say that Nintendo's consoles were superior to their competition, but a consumer could at least say "Nintendo's system does *this* - the other guys don't". The Cube never had that benefit. From the beginning, any talk about capability centered around what it did badly, what it didn't do at all, and worse, what it looked like.
Even if Nintendo doesn't add HD capability to Revolution and they don't try to compete in computational power, the system will have some positive differentiators from the competition. That's all but ensured by the retro download network, Revolution's physical design, and whatever control hook/gimmick they come up with. The console will have an identity that's based at least partially on what's good AND different about it, instead of just the negative.
And that brings me to my next point. Nintendo has done a horrible job of providing standout software for their home console. The games haven't been bad; they just don't fit in enough to dominate existing genres, but at the same time, they aren't different enough to be recognized by a consumer as being unique. You can see this with almost every big Nintendo-published title. They're viewed as weird because they straddle the line between starched-collar orthodox and daringly original.
Wind Waker is an extreme example of this. Ignore the distant past and 'old spirit' of the series - Wind Waker's visuals weren't what most gamers expected from the Zelda series. It was basically the same game that they had always played, but the visuals were a turn off and the gameplay wasn't different enough to force the naysayers to give it a chance. There's no doubt that the game hurt GCN's prospects from a very early stage.
Metroid Prime is another example that's hard to ignore - the gameplay is completely different from what people are used to for games with Metroid Prime's orthodox visuals. People want multiplayer from their FPSes, they want free look, and they want all of the other trappings of FPS titles. Metroid Prime completely shits on tradition, and gives gamers what a lot of them don't want.
A lot of people think that Nintendo bears no blame for gamers' reactions to these titles, but they do. The unwashed masses should understand Nintendo's delicate genius, and all of that crap. Judged on their own, these games may be masterpieces. I certainly think that they are. But for Nintendo to release these games without alternatives that are more orthodox is to completely turn their back on a market that wants to buy Nintendo's software.
There wasn't a lot preventing Nintendo from developing Twilight Princess instead of TWW and making a new cel-shaded adventure series in parallel. The Zelda title would have sold better, and the new IP would have had a chance at drawing in new gamers and trying out alternative play mechanics. Similarly, had Nintendo found a way to provide a true superstar FPS, Metroid Prime's design decisions wouldn't have been nearly as controversial. There would have been something else to compare to Halo, and Metroid Prime could have been recognized for what it is instead of what it isn't.
I think that Nintendo is starting to understand that gamers' expectations should be met. They're taking Mario Kart and Animal Crossing and replacing ham-fisted attempts at multiplayer play with true online gaming. Twilight Princess fixes the areas where Wind Waker failed - the visuals are what people naturally expect from Zelda games, and the horseback riding, sword play, and wolf mechanics will be exciting enough to attract those who are looking for a change.
At the same time, their experiments are becoming more and more distant from established genres. These games aren't "weird" versions of mass market games, like Pikmin was. Nintendogs, regardless of what's available on other systems, is not the kind of software that people are experienced with. The same goes for Brain Training, Electroplankton, and so on. If these experiments are successful, Nintendo immediately becomes the market leader in a new genre, and can dictate the direction that they want that genre to move in. Doing that is probably a lot easier and potentially more profitable than making oddball versions of existing titles. Most importantly, it provides us with games that we might just enjoy on a very pure level. Think about how you felt the first time you played a defining game in a new genre. That can't happen without experimentation.
All in all, I still have doubts, but I think that Nintendo stands to do very well with Revolution. They might not compete on the same level as MS and Sony, but they aren't going to disappear. And for the first time since before the N64, I don't feel like I know what to expect. That can only be a good thing.
