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Russia Starting to Withdraw Forces from Syria

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R

ReplacementPelican

Member
Just breaking now on BBC:

Russia is starting to withdraw forces from Syria and its aircraft carrier group will be the first to leave, the Russian armed forces chief says.
"The Russian defence ministry is beginning to reduce its armed forces deployment in Syria," said Gen Valery Gerasimov. A ceasefire in Syria is largely holding, the UN says.
Russian bombers have carried out heavy air strikes on anti-government rebels.
The Russian naval flotilla is led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-38528654

Seems the ceasefire is holding well enough then. Hopefully this will ease some of the tensions with Russia.
 
G

Goodlife

Member
History_Speeches_1511_GW_Bush_Mission_Accomplished_SF_still_624x352.jpg
 
P

Pankratous

Member
Someone give me a quick catch up here.

Why were they there, are they the good guys, who are the rebels, is the government bad, etc etc?
 
JordanN

JordanN

Banned
Putin realized he doesn't have to bomb Syria anymore because he'll order Trump to do it instead.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
They probably just need an excuse to bring back that totally wrecked aircraft carrier to Russia (or Hollywood, if they should ever make a Waterworld sequel).

Hell, even the French Charles de Gaule carrier is as solid as a Honda Civic comparted to that.
 
I

iamblades

Member
Pankratous said:
Someone give me a quick catch up here.

Why were they there, are they the good guys, who are the rebels, is the government bad, etc etc?
Click to expand...

They were there to support the Assad regime, which is a Russian client state.

No, there were no good guys.

Everyone but the Alawites basically.

Yes, but the rebels are (mostly) not substantially better.

Syria is a nation that should not exist in nature. Assad is a murderous dictator, but if the rebellion was successful the most likely result would have been a total genocide of the Alawites and the formation of a fundamentalist Islamic state.

There is no real good solution to fixing Syria. Sykes-Picot created a situation in the middle east that will take centuries of bloodshed to correct.

Really everyone who has a stake in that area of the world should recognize that the only way to solve this problem is to get together and redraw the maps along more stable lines, but no one is willing to give up territory to make it work. Yugoslavia 'worked' because it was all part of one nation that got split up, whereas in the middle east we need to get at least a half dozen nations, none of which are ruled by what you would call rational democratic governments, to agree to massive modifications of national borders.
 
P

PatThePassive

Member
michael92 said:
There are no good guys in proxies. It's a playground for guys not dirty enough to litter their own.
Click to expand...

I like to stand by the assad was super in the wrong at first and it quickly feel in to hell on earth due to the inaction of every other state who didn't do enough to stop this situation.

Russia you could have been the good guy and replace assad with an new government not even a 100% democratic new government so they could still maintain alliances would have worked as long as it stopped the violence. (Simple probably wouldnt have worked but could have been better then what we got)

But everyone got involved for themselves and the UN couldn't do shit and now its a moment in history for how terrible it played out.
 
I

iamblades

Member
PatThePassive said:
I like to stand by the assad was super in the wrong at first and it quickly feel in to hell on earth due to the inaction of every other state who didn't do enough to stop this situation.

Russia you could have been the good guy and replace assad with an new government not even a 100% democratic new government so they could still maintain alliances would have worked as long as it stopped the violence. (Simple probably wouldnt have worked but could have been better then what we got)

But everyone got involved for themselves and the UN couldn't do shit and now its a moment in history for how terrible it played out.
Click to expand...

The entire Assad family has been in the wrong since seizing power in 1970, and he absolutely should not be in charge.

That said, the practical real world result of a new government in Syria would almost certainly be a couple million dead Alawites.

Russia could have done some things to encourage the formation of an independent Alawite state, but the destabilization from that is just as likely to result in a bloody civil war. Really what should have happened is Russia and the US and the EU and Turkey getting together at the UN to institute a peacekeeping force on a large scale from the very beginning while working with Assad and the rebels to ensure a peaceful transition of power/a partition of the Syrian state. There are so many incentives working against any of those entities doing such things that it was never going to happen though.

The situation is fucked from every possible direction.
 
M

milanbaros

Member?
Pankratous said:
Someone give me a quick catch up here.

Why were they there, are they the good guys, who are the rebels, is the government bad, etc etc?
Click to expand...

The sooner you stop thinking of war or almost any power play as between goodies and baddies you will enable yourself to get a better grasp on things in the world.
 
M

mAcOdIn

Member
The Russian naval flotilla is led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.
Click to expand...
Did they seriously name the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov or is that a bad translation or the guy leading the flotilla?
 
S

SymbiantXenos

Member
Russia has a fact checkable proven record of lying time and time again.

So just like the last time they "withdrew" this time will be no different.
 
Acidote

Acidote

Member
Pankratous said:
Someone give me a quick catch up here.

Why were they there, are they the good guys, who are the rebels, is the government bad, etc etc?
Click to expand...
As I understand it:

Russia and their allies (the government) are just defending their interests and don't give a shit about innocent civilians.

The USA and their allies in that area of the world are just defending their interests and don't give a shit about innocent civilians.

DAESH is downright evil.

The so called rebels are mostly and pretty much a rebranded Al-Qaeda.

And for the good guys we have the innocent civilians dying. That's it.
 
H

Hyperactivity

Banned
DiipuSurotu said:
Which country is that at the bottom right?
Click to expand...

Syrian army (Syrian flag on helmet). Putin to his left, Saudi Arabia above Syrian army, Iran above Saudi arabia, Assad to the left of Saudi Arabia, Erdogan(Turkey) to Assad's top left, Netanyahu near the bottom left of the picture, ISIS to the left of Putin, YPG/PKK to the top left of Iran, FSA all the way at the bottom left corner(?).
 
S

Starfish_Oxide

Member
Second time Russia has done this. The aircraft carrier was a show of force, mainly for internally propaganda reasons. All that the Assad forces really need is the Russian aircover and weapon supplies. Russian ground troops were apparently mainly de-mining teams and special forces acting in a similar nature to the US with the Kurdish forces.

I imagine that most of the aircraft are still in Syria on land bases or repairing back home and sure the heavy bombers are only a short flight over the Caucuses away.

Plus there will be a down tick in fight until the push for Idlib, if it ever comes. Time for war by other means now, well until Mosul falls anyway.
 
F

FStubbs

Member
iamblades said:
They were there to support the Assad regime, which is a Russian client state.

No, there were no good guys.

Everyone but the Alawites basically.

Yes, but the rebels are (mostly) not substantially better.

Syria is a nation that should not exist in nature. Assad is a murderous dictator, but if the rebellion was successful the most likely result would have been a total genocide of the Alawites and the formation of a fundamentalist Islamic state.

There is no real good solution to fixing Syria. Sykes-Picot created a situation in the middle east that will take centuries of bloodshed to correct.

Really everyone who has a stake in that area of the world should recognize that the only way to solve this problem is to get together and redraw the maps along more stable lines, but no one is willing to give up territory to make it work. Yugoslavia 'worked' because it was all part of one nation that got split up, whereas in the middle east we need to get at least a half dozen nations, none of which are ruled by what you would call rational democratic governments, to agree to massive modifications of national borders.
Click to expand...

This. Then those new nations would promptly go to war with each other anyway.
 
C

Coxy100

Banned
iamblades said:
The entire Assad family has been in the wrong since seizing power in 1970, and he absolutely should not be in charge.

That said, the practical real world result of a new government in Syria would almost certainly be a couple million dead Alawites.

Russia could have done some things to encourage the formation of an independent Alawite state, but the destabilization from that is just as likely to result in a bloody civil war. Really what should have happened is Russia and the US and the EU and Turkey getting together at the UN to institute a peacekeeping force on a large scale from the very beginning while working with Assad and the rebels to ensure a peaceful transition of power/a partition of the Syrian state. There are so many incentives working against any of those entities doing such things that it was never going to happen though.

The situation is fucked from every possible direction.
Click to expand...
Very knowledgeable and yet depressing posts - thanks iamblades :)
 
S

system11

Member
I've been thinking Russia were on the right track in Syria for a while now. Assad was the least bad option, of the universally poor ones available.
 
U

UnemployedVillain

Member
Pankratous said:
Someone give me a quick catch up here.

Why were they there, are they the good guys, who are the rebels, is the government bad, etc etc?
Click to expand...

Rebels vs Assad
US arms rebels to take out Assad
Russia allies with Assad to combat rebels
Rebels can't stop breaking ceasefire
US and Russia can't come to agreement
Citizens of Aleppo get caught up in the crossfire
 
S

Slo

Member
Victarion said:
Yes, and the West didn't have anything to with this mess, they were the good guys that just stood and watch from afar.
Click to expand...

Odd that you'd focus on that part of the cartoon. As an American who doesn't really understand the middle eastern clusterfuck, the cartoon does a good job of explaining the problem to me at a glance.

In general we Americans are accustomed to viewing ourselves as the good guy who fights the bad guy. We expect Good vs. Evil. Some of us naively see ourselves as Superman and when Lex Luthor is being an asshole, the solution is as simple as getting the Justice League together to go kick his ass.

I don't think most American's understand that in this case our 'Justice League' all want to kick each other's asses too.
 
F

FreedomFighter

Member
They'll keep a small contingent there. Damascus having water issues since Takfiri's poisoned it with diesel fuel. Will probably be a small Russian force staying behind which need to help clean up Western and Eastern Ghouta before branching out and tackling Idlib and then finally heading out East to Dier Ezhor, Raqqa, etc.
system11 said:
I've been thinking Russia were on the right track in Syria for a while now. Assad was the least bad option, of the universally poor ones available.
Click to expand...
That's why I didn't want him to fall. He's terrible, but not as terrible as ISIS, Nusra, al-Zinki, al-Sham and the other headchoppers. To some, this is black-and-white though.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Goodlife said:
History_Speeches_1511_GW_Bush_Mission_Accomplished_SF_still_624x352.jpg
Click to expand...
You are joking but really their goals have been achieved.

They:
•Won a proxy war against the US, though to be fair the US didn't try all that hard beyond arming rebels.
•Kept their ally Assad in power, and set the table for him to remain by wiping out the rebels negotiating leverage.
•As a bonus further destabilized Western Europe by contributing to the refugee crisis which was an arguable catalyst for things like brexit and Turkey not entering the EU when planned. A weaker Western Europe leaves a more vulnerable Eastern Europe.
 
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