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[Blablurn]

For more than a decade, a tacit understanding among China’s top rulers has ensured the ruling Communist party does not become a gerontocracy. That understanding, known as qishang baxia or “seven-up, eight-down”, dictates that only leaders 67 or younger can ascend to or remain in top posts, while those 68 or older must retire when the party changes guard every five years.

But as China prepares to enter a “selection year” under the leadership of a very unconventional president, Xi Jinping, there is increasing speculation he may try to dispense with the retirement convention entirely.

If so, it will be the biggest test yet of his authority over the party and further distinguish him from his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, who took a “first among equals” approach during their presidencies.

“To waive the rule is going to be difficult because it would establish [Xi] as significantly more than first among equals,” says Steve Tsang, a sinologist at Nottingham university.

It would also be the strongest signal to date that Mr Xi could ignore a similar unwritten rule on term limits that would require him to step down from his current position as party leader in 2022.

Mr Xi heads the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s most powerful body. Since 2012 he has overseen a draconian anti-corruption campaign and asserted his authority over the military and even economic policy, an area traditionally delegated to the premier.

As a result, he is widely regarded as the party’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s reform and opening, if not Mao Zedong, the party’s revolutionary hero.

Mr Xi and his premier, Li Keqiang, will be 64 and 62 respectively when the 19th Party Congress convenes late next year to appoint a new Politburo Standing Committee and State Council, ensuring both men another five years at the top of China’s party-state.

All five other members of the Standing Committee will be required to step down under the current retirement rule.

This rule is not enshrined in the party constitution and was only introduced by Mr Jiang in 2002 as a way to ensure one of his rivals could not stay in office after he retired.

Despite its arbitrary origins, the age limit is seen as a strong sign of institutionalised rule that is crucial to the party’s claim to legitimacy.

For Mr Xi, the 19th party congress will be an unprecedented opportunity to stack top party and government posts with his allies, giving him even more authority. “Just wait for his second term” is a common refrain among the president’s supporters, many of whom admit privately that the party has yet to deliver on many of the bold economic reforms promised at the outset of his presidency.

But a year can be even longer in Chinese politics than elsewhere. Jockeying will begin in earnest later this month at an annual gathering of the Central Committee — membership of which is a prerequisite to serve on the Politburo Standing Committee — and it will continue right up until next year’s congress.

“Xi appears to be strong on the surface,” says Qiao Mu, a Beijing-based scholar. “But it’s hard to say if he can get what he wants [at the congress]. Nobody knows for sure until the last moment.”

Willy Lam, a China expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, says: “I don’t think anyone is powerful enough to openly challenge Xi if he wants to ignore the retirement rule. But people would definitely fight it internally.”

If the qishang baxia rule is waived, party insiders say the immediate beneficiary would be Wang Qishan. Mr Wang has spearheaded Mr Xi’s anti-corruption campaign and turns 69 next year. Technically the party’s sixth-highest-ranking official, Mr Wang is widely regarded as second only to the president in terms of real clout.

Mr Wang, a veteran banker involved in every pivotal financial reform since the mid-1990s, is the most economically literate member of the current Politburo Standing Committee at a time when the Chinese economy faces mounting problems.

After enduring a credibility-sapping series of market and currency crises in the second half of last year and early 2016, economic growth has stabilised with the help of one of history’s biggest credit bubbles. Now Mr Xi and Mr Li are attempting to deflate that bubble without denting economic growth.

“Wang likes the idea of staying on,” says one person close to the party leadership. “But he is worried about the precedent it might set for Xi himself.”

Mr Xi will be 69 at the expiry of his second term as party general secretary in 2022, and thus ineligible for a third term. But if the retirement rule is waived for Mr Wang, then it could be waived for Mr Xi as well.

In a rare hint that he may indeed be contemplating a third term, an official journal quoted the president in early 2015 as saying that the party “can’t simply draw the line based on age” when appointing officials.

Additional reporting by Wan Li

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/09cc1044-8f77-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

Xi loving it! Going to be interesting to see if he will do it or not. He can go for a 2nd run. But people expect him to get rid of the retrement rule during that term.

 

[BronsonLee]

IT'S RIC FLAIR

 

[Crono27]

IT'S RIC FLAIR

Woooooooooooo

 

[echoshifting]

If the term limit rule is that important maybe they should write it down?

That sounds like a pretty crazy thing to rely on the honor system for. Perhaps that's my Western perception though?

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

If it's that important maybe they should write it down?

People like Xi want to be able to do exactly what this OP is about. Of course they aren't gonna write it down. It's not a democracy and the citizens won't (due to philosophical beliefs and education) and can't do anything to get a set term to be written.

 

[Coriolanus]

Hrm...how have his anti-corruption efforts gone?

 

[echoshifting]

People like Xi want to be able to do exactly what this OP is about. Of course they aren't gonna write it down. It's not a democracy and the citizens won't (due to philosophical beliefs and education) and can't do anything to get a set term to be written.

Hmmm interesting, thanks for the reply.

 

[darkhunger]

If the term limit rule that important maybe they should write it down?

That sounds like a pretty crazy thing to rely on the honor system for. Perhaps that's my Western perception though?

They didn't write it down in the US for 200 years though, so China's got time.

 

[Piecake]

Hrm...how have his anti-corruption efforts gone?

They've done a good job of jailing and getting rid of his opponents.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Hmmm interesting, thanks for the reply.

No prob. The only bright side is that despite this, China has been starting to become ever closer to our system of capitalism and democracy (if you compare how it is now with the past). People are becoming more educated due to technology, even if the Chinese government tries in vain to censor news. There are more Chinese people than ever going from China and moving to the west and bringing back what they've learned here. In the past you had a lot of people who were too poor to even get an education in China much less an education abroad. Nowadays there are plenty of wealthy people and as a result they're naturally becoming more worldly and open to other ideas. So I'm hopeful that one day things will all change.

I'll bring up one example:

Due to the communist government, real estate is technically government property. Only relatively recently in China's history did they start letting people "own" property. Sure you own the property you buy while you live, but you can't pass that down to your issue after you die like we can here; the property theoretically reverts back to the government. However, this isn't really extremely clear, so you have many Chinese going overseas and buying property and investing their money elsewhere so that they can pass it down to their children. People I've talked to are extremely frustrated with that as they feel like they should be allowed to keep what they worked hard to obtain (which is a very western way of thinking and at odds with the philosophy of communism).

 

[Coriolanus]

They've done a good job of jailing and getting rid of his opponents.

Well, thats kinda expected. if you gon do an anti-corruption push, of course you gon start with your opponents.

Were they mad corrupt, tho?

 

[echoshifting]

They didn't write it down in the US for 200 years though, so China's got time.

Heh, good point!

 

[Hierophant]

hong kong was always my idea of what a modern chinese city without communism would like and i can only hope that more cities in china are heading towards it but i will admit that I'm wholey uninformed

 

[Aztechnology]

hong kong was always my idea of what a modern chinese city without communism would like and i can only hope that more cities in china are heading towards it but i will admit that I'm wholey uninformed

Hasn't Hong Kong essentially been heading the opposite direction and having lots of their freedoms curtailed?

(I agree btw)

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

hong kong was always my idea of what a modern chinese city without communism would like and i can only hope that more cities in china are heading towards it but i will admit that I'm wholey uninformed

Yeah not looking too good on that front now that Hong Kong belongs to China again and not to England. China has said they wouldn't interfere with the status quo for the most part, but they obviously would have the power to do anything they want with respect to Hong Kong now.

As of now, Taiwan would be the last bastion as they aren't officially part of China (despite what China likes to claim). You can see that Taiwan has a level of independence that Hong Kong does not in that Taiwan has its own president, has a standing army, and can participate separate from China (although as "Chinese Taipei") in the Olympics.

 

[Piecake]

Well, thats kinda expected. if you gon do an anti-corruption push, of course you gon start with your opponents.

Were they mad corrupt, tho?

Thats a good bet. I also think its a pretty good bet that he is going to stop with his opponents.

 

[numble]

No prob. The only bright side is that despite this, China has been starting to become ever closer to our system of capitalism and democracy (if you compare how it is now with the past). People are becoming more educated due to technology, even if the Chinese government tries in vain to censor news. There are more Chinese people than ever going from China and moving to the west and bringing back what they've learned here. In the past you had a lot of people who were too poor to even get an education in China much less an education abroad. Nowadays there are plenty of wealthy people and as a result they're naturally becoming more worldly and open to other ideas. So I'm hopeful that one day things will all change.

I'll bring up one example:

Due to the communist government, real estate is technically government property. Only relatively recently in China's history did they start letting people "own" property. Sure you own the property you buy while you live, but you can't pass that down to your issue after you die like we can here; the property theoretically reverts back to the government. However, this isn't really extremely clear, so you have many Chinese going overseas and buying property and investing their money elsewhere so that they can pass it down to their children. People I've talked to are extremely frustrated with that as they feel like they should be allowed to keep what they worked hard to obtain (which is a very western way of thinking and at odds with the philosophy of communism).

Your example is incorrect. Maybe the people you talk to need to consult with some lawyers who know what the law actually says?

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cgny/eng/lsqz/laws/t42224.htm

 

[Hierophant]

Hasn't Hong Kong essentially been heading the opposite direction and having lots of their freedoms curtailed?

(I agree btw)

oh yeah totally this was before the handover and in the earliest years after the handover, i still do one day dream of a united asia (will never happen for 1000000 years or maybe if young people stopped being racist)

 

[orthodoxy1095]

oh yeah totally this was before the handover and in the earliest years after the handover, i still do one day dream of a united asia (will never happen for 1000000 years or maybe if young people stopped being racist)

wat.

44,579,000 km2, 4,164,252,000 people, 48 countries, extremely different cultures and ways of life.

how does this even go through someone's mind?

 

[Hierophant]

wat.

44,579,000 km2, 4,164,252,000 people, 48 countries, extremely different cultures and ways of life.

how does this even go through someone's mind?

extreme hallucination and a fundamental lack of understanding of Asia as a whole

 

[Calidor]

oh yeah totally this was before the handover and in the earliest years after the handover, i still do one day dream of a united asia (will never happen for 1000000 years or maybe if young people stopped being racist)

Lol. Mayyyybe the ASEAN can put up sone trade agreements. Probably not because the different size of the economies

 

[Hierophant]

okay maybe not a united asia but one that's at peace where japan china and korea don't vigorously hate each other

 

[Coriolanus]

okay maybe not a united asia but one that's at peace where japan china and korea don't vigorously hate each other

As long as material scarcity exists, so will that.

China and SK sure Like to trade with each other tho. As do Japan and China, and yet..

 

[firehawk12]

An "Asian Union" in the style of the EU seems impossible in our lifetime short of crazy things happening like Korean unification and the rise of Chinese democracy.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

wat.

44,579,000 km2, 4,164,252,000 people, 48 countries, extremely different cultures and ways of life.

how does this even go through someone's mind?

The Mongol Empire did it for like, what, 43 seconds?

 

[Hierophant]

An "Asian Union" in the style of the EU seems impossible in our lifetime short of crazy things happening like Korean unification and the rise of Chinese democracy.

is chinese democracy actually a thing that might happen? I will fully admit that i am young and naive so I would genuinely like to be taught

 

[Renekton]

He can stay until economy crashes.

When does it crash? Soonish?

 

[firehawk12]

is chinese democracy actually a thing that might happen? I will fully admit that i am young and naive so I would genuinely like to be taught

It's strange, because while the political structure might not change, the rise of the middle class and all these new millionaires means that these nouveau riche Chinese will want the same luxuries and lifestyles found in the west and other Asian countries. Presumably at some point these young rich 30-somethings will move up the ranks to become the party leadership, and maybe at that point there will be democratic reforms because they spent their youth partying it up in European villas or whatever. You already see it with the influx of Chinese into HK and some movement into Taiwan.

 

[Cyrano]

is chinese democracy actually a thing that might happen? I will fully admit that i am young and naive so I would genuinely like to be taught

No. In practice it's an aristocracy with various heads that, at times, have what is effectively dictatorial power. The scale somewhat mitigates this but also as a result of it, corruption is rampant.

 

[TheWraith]

Yeah not looking too good on that front now that Hong Kong belongs to China again and not to England. China has said they wouldn't interfere with the status quo for the most part, but they obviously would have the power to do anything they want with respect to Hong Kong now.

As of now, Taiwan would be the last bastion as they aren't officially part of China (despite what China likes to claim). You can see that Taiwan has a level of independence that Hong Kong does not in that Taiwan has its own president, has a standing army, and can participate separate from China (although as "Chinese Taipei") in the Olympics.

I live in HK and human rights, freedoms and meddling from China all have risen in the past decade, paralleling the rise of Xi. Some Hong Kongers publishing books about Xi and the CCP have been kidnapped and ended up in China's black jails! Utterly terrifiying for people here. China has basically broken the Handover agreement between UK and China without the UK stepping up because of fear for economic deals benificial to the UK.

HK does still have its own Olympic team though!

 

[firehawk12]

No. In practice it's an aristocracy with various heads that, at times, have what is effectively dictatorial power. The scale somewhat mitigates this but also as a result of it, corruption is rampant.

I think what makes it different from other corrupt communist countries is that the scale of the upper middle class is so large that it's impossible for a select few to try to control everything. I mean you're talking about millions of millionaires, all with money and growing influence, and not all of them are going to idle stand by and get fucked by others - particularly if it impacts their own ability to make money.

 

[Cyrano]

I think what makes it different from other corrupt communist countries is that the scale of the upper middle class is so large that it's impossible for a select few to try to control everything. I mean you're talking about millions of millionaires, all with money and growing influence, and not all of them are going to idle stand by and get fucked by others - particularly if it impacts their own ability to make money.

I agree, but this doesn't change the fact that those with more money will be more likely and vastly more able to control how those changes occur. That wealth, much like the wealth of many other nations is still extremely concentrated at the top. Meaning that opportunity for either redistribution or emancipation from its effects on government is highly unlikely. Much less the ability of the people writ large to have an effect on the governing process.

This is also why coalitions of large groups of corrupt individuals have emerged, to protect the corrupt process. As an example, at the ground level, this manifests as gangs controlling local police forces, effectively being able to extort money from those without political influence and ensuring those without influence continue to stay that way. So even if not all of them will stand by, most will, if not out of loyalty, then out of fear, extortion, blackmail, or any other variety of extralegal / illegal processes to ensure members stay in line.

 

[Junior Mint]

If only Hong Kong could voluntarily give itself back to the UK

 

[ThoseDeafMutes]

That sounds like a pretty crazy thing to rely on the honor system for. Perhaps that's my Western perception though?

By no means unprecedented. In Australia we once had a belligerent senate block the bill of supply for that year. That's the piece of legislation that allows the government to spend money. It was basically a gentleman's agreement that you never block supply, there was no law that actually said they needed to approve of it. So the government couldn't spend any money, and it triggered a constitutional crisis and the Governor General (Queen's representative in Australia) fired the Prime Minister and dissolved parliament. Total meltdown, all because one of the basic functions of government wasn't actually put down on paper.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

Your example is incorrect. Maybe the people you talk to need to consult with some lawyers who know what the law actually says?

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cgny/eng/lsqz/laws/t42224.htm

I apologize I botched what they were telling me really badly. It wasn't that you couldn't pass down property. The link below is what they were worried and frustrated about.

http://www.chinasmack.com/2013/stories/chinese-land-use-rights-what-happens-after-70-years.html

Essentially they were worried as to this 70 year rule where it is unclear if the land reverts back to the government after 70 years even though you will own the building you bought. Since the building itself is not actually worth much, they were worried that there would not be anything of significance for their children to inherit, especially if the government suddenly decided to take the land for new development.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

I live in HK and human rights, freedoms and meddling from China all have risen in the past decade, paralleling the rise of Xi. Some Hong Kongers publishing books about Xi and the CCP have been kidnapped and ended up in China's black jails! Utterly terrifiying for people here. China has basically broken the Handover agreement between UK and China without the UK stepping up because of fear for economic deals benificial to the UK.

HK does still have its own Olympic team though!

Oh I wasn't aware they had one this year because the events I watched happened to not have any of their athletes. I had assumed that with the change China had disallowed a Hong Kong team. Well that's a positive!

 

[orthodoxy1095]

The Mongol Empire did it for like, what, 43 seconds?

Largest land empire in history and still didn't manage to unify the entirety of Asia.

 

[aznpxdd]

hong kong was always my idea of what a modern chinese city without communism would like

Um... that's called Taiwan. Even HK people are considered pretty rude compared to Taiwanese.

 

[Madness]

Hong Kong and Taiwan are good looks at what Chinese people can achieve free of communist authoritarian rule. It is inevitable the CPC will fall. It is why Xi has been so ruthless jailing his opponents and pretending to stamp out corruption. Because people in china are getting richer, becoming millionaires and billionaires with global influence. The party is slowly losing that ideological and nationalist grip they had.

 

[Blablurn]

The party is slowly losing that ideological and nationalist grip they had.

More like the opposite

In a country where many are still in poverty or poor conditions (western regions), and many are grateful for having made it to the middle class thanks to the CPC, most people still support the Party. Moreover many billionaires still have great ties to the CPC.

Pls don't spread rumors like this.

 

[TheWraith]

More like the opposite

In a country where many are still in poverty or poor conditions (western regions), and many are grateful for having made it to the middle class thanks to the CPC, most people still support the Party. Moreover many billionaires still have great ties to the CPC.

Pls don't spread rumors like this.

Very much this. People claiming China is slowly moving to a freer society or democracy are fooling themselves, it actually goes very much in the opposite direction with Xi at the helm. Last year they arrested 200 human rights lawyers just in one day, without any warrants or charges issued! One aid of the lawyers a 20 year old girl was also arrested, and subsequently raped while in jail. Just to name one small example.

 

[Madness]

More like the opposite

In a country where many are still in poverty or poor conditions (western regions), and many are grateful for having made it to the middle class thanks to the CPC, most people still support the Party. Moreover many billionaires still have great ties to the CPC.

Pls don't spread rumors like this.

I will disagree. The CPC controls most media in and out of the country so it is very hard to gauge any sort of difference. But the economic downturn they have had is now prolonged, India is now consistently having higher growth than China. Additionally, while millions are grateful for lifting out of poverty, many of the country's millionaires and billionaires are stashing funds outside the country. It was reported more than a trillion dollars was 'snuck' out of the country last year alone and the number keeps growing. The ones who have great ties to the CPC are visible becauae of that. Those who don't are silenced or forced to go abroad. But anyone can see the grip has severely loosened. The CPC will need eventual political or economic reform. It is why Xi gives long winded speeches on not wavering from party ideals. Many are now increasingly influenced in a global world with global economic certainties. This corruption campaign has been used to try and wrangle some power back.

Change can happen very quickly or takes a long time.

 

[FinaruDensetsu]

I feel like you guys are not really arguing positions that are necessary at odds. On the matter of economics they are becoming more like the west and embrace capitalism FAR more than the old China. On the other hand the government could be taking steps back on Human Rights and censorship as the ruling party tries to cling to power. I don't see those issues as mutually exclusive.

 

[Blablurn]

Change can happen very quickly or takes a long time.

Socialism with Chinese characteristics will prevail and you will see that some billionairs who snuck their money out of the country will come back sooner or later.

Regret can happen very quickly or takes a long time.

 

[Coriolanus]

Hong Kong and Taiwan are good looks at what Chinese people can achieve free of communist authoritarian rule.

Not really? Most of china won't ever be able to become anything remotely similar to HK or Taiwan, simply due to geographical reasons, which then impact a whole host of other stuff.

 

[cruets]

is chinese democracy actually a thing that might happen? I will fully admit that i am young and naive so I would genuinely like to be taught

That album sucked.

 

[andythinkpad]

I haven't read anything on my Chinese forums yet. So I will just say its unlikely.

What's most likely is he will go the Jiang zheming routine and keep the supreme military commander role (can't remember the title now) and let go off the President and Secretary of Central Communist Standing Committee roles.

He can still remain in actual power by controlling the army.

"Party command the Army", this has always been the case since the split of the CCP and the KMT.

 

[andythinkpad]

hong kong was always my idea of what a modern chinese city without communism would like and i can only hope that more cities in china are heading towards it but i will admit that I'm wholey uninformed

Hong Kong is a libertarian dystopia with ruling real estate families run wild. *roll eyes*

You know why Shenzhen has higher GDP than HK now? because HK is broken.

oh yeah totally this was before the handover and in the earliest years after the handover, i still do one day dream of a united asia (will never happen for 1000000 years or maybe if young people stopped being racist)

Haha you one up your own post right after. Good job.

 

[TheWraith]

Five Ways China Has Become More Repressive Under President Xi Jinping

http://time.com/4519160/china-xi-jinping-cecc-human-rights-rule-of-law/

 

[TheWraith]

Hong Kong is a libertarian dystopia with ruling real estate families run wild. *roll eyes*

You know why Shenzhen has higher GDP than HK now? because HK is broken.

HK is by all means broken as the 1 country 2 systems arrangement has has been overruled and broken by the CCP. But please don't compare GDP numbers in China with anything really, any number is systematically trumped up by government stooges, because they just can't be seen to input bad numbers into their statistics.